Financial Markets and Economy
Fourth-Quarter Earnings Seen Bringing Comfort to U.S. Investors (Bloomberg)
Fourth-quarter earnings estimates are following the usual pattern and the results will ease concern stemming from this year’s losses in stocks, according to Adam Parker, Morgan Stanley’s chief U.S. equity strategist.
Recession, retrenchment, revolution? Impact of low crude prices on oil powers (The Guardian)
A glut of oil, the demise of Opec and weakening global demand combined to make 2015 the year of crashing oil prices. The cost of crude fell to levels not seen for 11 years – and the decline may have further to go.
Stocks Rise on China Trade Data (Wall Street Journal)
Global stocks gained Wednesday as oil prices moved away from recent lows and fears about the Chinese economy appeared to recede.
Futures markets pointed to a 0.8% opening gain for the S&P 500. Changes in futures aren’t necessarily reflected in market moves after the opening bell.
Nasdaq Says IPO Delays Won't Hurt `Fantastic' European Pipeline (Bloomberg)
Losses in the commodities and stock markets are forcing some companies in Europe to shelve their planned initial public offerings.
If I'm right, the US stock market will fall 75% (Business Insider)
There are cynics, doom-sayers and then there's Albert Edwards, the Societe Generale economist, who's in a league almost of his own.
Edwards' most recent call is that, if the US economy plunges into a recession led by weak manufacturing output, stocks will be worth about a quarter of what they're priced at now.
It's a heavy-duty prediction.
Oil at $10 a barrel — maybe even under $0? Analysts play ‘how low can you go’ (Market Watch)
Few in 2014 called oil below $30 a barrel — and yet there we are this week. And that lack of prescience hasn’t stopped analysts from continuing to consult their crystal balls.
For many, it now looks like a game of “how low can you go?”
In the new year, Morgan Stanley has said $20 is possible, Dennis Gartman sees $15 and Standard Chartered may have undercut the other big banks with its $10 call.
U.S. stock index futures ticked higher early on Wednesday, as risk appetite returned to Asian and European stock markets amid an oil rebound.
Brent (Intercontinental Exchange Europe: @LCO.1) and WTI (New York Mercantile Exchange: @CL.1) crude oil futures traded above $31 per barrel on Wednesday, pulling away from the psychologically important $30 mark, after better-than-expected trade data from China.
Charting the Markets: China's Rising Trade Data Spurs Appetite for Risk (Bloomberg)
Asian stocks halt 2016's losing run, the offshore yuan rises for a third day and commodities rebound from a 25-year low.
'The most important chart in the world now' shows $170 billion in capital flight (Business Insider)
Andrew Roberts, the research chief for European economics and rates at RBS, says this is "Surely the most important chart in the world now?"
Here’s when you should be thinking about jumping back into stocks this year (Market Watch)
The number 666 crops up in plenty of horror movies, but it has also captured the attention of one of the biggest bears out there.
Albert Edwards, SocGen’s perma-growler, thinks the S&P 500 index SPX, +0.78% could drop below the March 2009 bear-market low of 666. He says we’re likely to drop to around 550, a 75% slide from current levels. Mind you, Edwards is known for his super-dramatic calls.
From chaos to calm: one year on from Swiss 'Frankenschock' (Yahoo! Finance)
A year on from "Frankenschock", when Switzerland's central bank sent global foreign exchange markets into a frenzy by abruptly ending its cap on the Swiss franc, the currency is one of the most stable in the world. Sharply negative Swiss interest rates – three month rates are around minus 0.75 percent – and subtle market interventions by the Swiss National Bank have stabilized the franc at around 1.08 per euro. Whether it lasts is an open question – there have been political and economic costs – but the situation is nonetheless a far cry from Jan. 15, 2015 when the cap's removal prompted the biggest currency market swing since the 1970s.
Sainsbury Seeks to Outduel Amazon in U.K. With Argos Combination (Bloomberg)
J Sainsbury Plc chief Mike Coupe said his planned takeover of Home Retail Group Plc will give him a competitive edge over Amazon.com Inc. as he prepares to confront the online giant in his own backyard.
IBM granted most U.S. patents in 2015, study finds (Business Insider)
International Business Machines Corp <IBM.N> was granted the most U.S. patents for the 23rd year in a row in 2015, according to a ranking by patent analysis firm IFI Claims Patents Services.
There were 298,407 utility patents granted in 2015, down slightly from 2014, IFI Claims said on Wednesday. IBM gained 7,355 patents last year. Utility patents cover function rather than design.
So many jobs, so little growth. What gives? (Market Watch)
The economy is creating lots of jobs, but GDP is only crawling. Caroline Baum explains why hiring is strong while growth is weak.
Jaguar Land Rover Named Best Place to Work in Britain (Bloomberg)
Luxury carmaker Jaguar Land Rover is the best place to work in corporate Britain, according to a survey of thousands of employees carried out for Bloomberg by Statista.
The company, which has 25,000 employees in the U.K. – almost its entire global workforce – was ranked number one among 400 businesses surveyed that employ more than 500 people in Britain.
Here's how borrowing costs for China's yuan exploded to 66.8% in Hong Kong (Business Insider)
After soaring to a record on Tuesday, the cost to borrow offshore yuan overnight plummeted on Wednesday.
The overnight offshore yuan interbank offered rate, or HIBOR, fixed at 66.82% in Hong Kong on Tuesday. It's now down to about 8%, which is still high.
Gold stages another false mini-rally (Market Watch)
Gold continues to suffer from too much optimism among short-term market timers.
U.S. Index Futures Signal Three-Day Relief as China Angst Eases (Bloomberg)
U.S. index futures indicated an equity rebound will extend to a third day after a turbulent start to the year erased as much as $1.7 trillion from stocks.
China December exports fall 1.4 percent, less than forecast (Business Insider)
China's December exports fell 1.4 percent from a year earlier, while imports slid 7.6 percent, both much less than economists had expected but still likely consigning the economy to its weakest annual growth in 25 years.
That left the country with a trade surplus of $60.09 billion for the month, the General Administration of Customs said on Wednesday.
6 reasons the bull market’s run may be done (Market Watch)
Something’s different this time.
For the last five years, this column has been consistently bullish on U.S. stocks, even as naysayers dismissed a bull market in which share prices more than tripled. Through mini-panics and corrections (most recently here, here, here, and here), I recommended that you stay the course.
The $5.8 Billion Boost That Saved Ukraine From Collapse: Chart (Bloomberg)
Ukraine’s international reserves grew by $5.8 billion in 2015 as the International Monetary Fund disbursed aid to rescue the country from financial collapse.
Philippines' San Miguel eyes SABmiller's Grolsch and Peroni (Business Insider)
Philippine conglomerate San Miguel Corp <SMC.PS> said on Wednesday it is interested in acquiring SABMiller PLC's <SAB.L> Grolsch and Peroni beer brands, its President Ramon Ang told Reuters.
Anheuser Busch InBev SA <ABI.BR>, which agreed to buy SABMiller for $100 billion plus, has been seeking potential bidders for Grolsch and Peroni, sources close to the process told Reuters last month.
Dollar rises against yen after better-than-expected trade data (Market Watch)
The yen weakened against the dollar and other rivals in Asia trade Wednesday, with better-than-expected China trade data and the Asian stock markets’ stability prompting selling of the Japanese currency, considered a safe haven.
The dollar USDJPY, +0.41% was changing hands at ¥118.24, higher than ¥117.76 late Tuesday in New York.
U.S. Long-Bond Yield Above 3% Shouts `Buy' to $2.9 Billion Fund (Bloomberg)
Three percent is the magic number for one investor who likes 30-year Treasuries.
Are Commodities a Necessary Portfolio Component? (The Reformed Broker)
This is the problem with the clarion calls of the last decade to make commodities a part of one’s asset allocation because they are “uncorrelated” to traditional stock / bond portfolios. The more people adopt this suggestion, the more “financialized” commodities become, and the less helpful for diversification. And everyone adopted this suggestion, judging by asset flows during that decade and into 2011.
Politics
Why Is Bernie Sanders Overtaking Hillary? (The Atlantic)
A funny thing happened between mid-December and now. When everyone went into holiday slumber, Hillary Clinton was sailing high; Bernie Sanders, after shocking most observers with his impressive popularity, seemed to have plateaued around 30 percent. Now, as the homestretch before the Iowa caucuses (February 1) and New Hampshire primary (February 9) draw closer, the race is getting tighter.
Obama's Vision: Crush Republicans (Bloomberg View)
President Barack Obama's final State of the Union address consisted of a clear vision and an equally plain, if less explicitly identified, path to reach it. Obama envisions a future powered by democratic pluralism, green energy and a redistribution of power from business owners and the wealthy to workers and the middle class.
How will we reach that future? His answer: By crushing the reactionary party obstructing the way.
Trump, Sanders reshaping our two political parties (Market Watch)
The U.S. is unlikely to ever get a multi-party political system, but the divisions exposed in the current presidential campaign herald significant shifts in the two parties we do have.
As Donald Trump — and for that matter, Ted Cruz — force establishment Republicans to the sidelines of the party’s primary race, there is talk about the end of the Republican Party as we know it.
Technology
Man maneuvers robotic arm with his thoughts (Futurity)
Surgeons used a new technique to attach a thought-controlled robot arm directly to an amputee’s stump, giving him a far greater range of motion with the advanced prosthetic limb.
This Showerhead Changes Color When You Use Too Much Water (Fast Company)
LED lights in Hydrao Smart Shower change color based on water volume output.
Consumers looking for smart tech with a saving-the-planet twist will want to make note of the Hydrao Smart Shower showerhead, created by French design firm Start & Blue and first showed off at CES.
Health and Life Sciences
Can changing your mealtimes make you healthier? (BBC)
Many people want to eat more healthily but find it difficult to change their diet. So what happened when Michael Mosley altered not what he ate, but when he ate?
We've known for some time that altering the time at which you eat can affect your weight and metabolism. At least if you are a mouse.
Tai Chi and Heart Disease (NY Times)
Like other forms of physical activity, tai chi may be an effective method for helping to reduce the risk of heart disease. The mind-body practice, characterized by gentle movement and deep breathing, offers a nontraditional form of exercise that may appeal particularly to elderly or frail individuals and those who “get bored at the gym,” said Alona D. Angosta, who wrote a review of the research on tai chi.
Study Finds Poverty a Stronger Harbinger of Childhood Obesity Than Race (Medicine Net Daily)
Poverty is a better predictor ofchildhood obesity than race, new research suggests.
A statistical model, based on information from more than 110,000 Massachusetts students, found that as children's family income dropped, rates of childhood obesity went up.
Life on the Home Planet
A decade of sanctions imposed on Iran’s nuclear program may come to an end by Monday, unlocking billions of dollars in frozen accounts and paving the way for a surge in oil exports from the Islamic Republic.
Iran Frees U.S. Sailors Who Strayed Into Waters, Tasnim Reports (Bloomberg)
Iran released 10 U.S. sailors it had detained after their boats strayed into Iranian waters, easing frictions that have intensified ahead of the implementation of the July nuclear accord.
“After it was made clear that the U.S. boats had unintentionally entered into the Islamic Republic’s waters and they apologized, the decision to free them was taken,” the country’s Revolutionary Guards said on Wednesday in a statement carried by the Tasnim news agency.
The Biggest Powerball Jackpot Ever: The Odds and Where the Money Goes (NY Times)
News flash: Your chances of winning the Powerball jackpot are not great — just one in 292.2 million. Still, with the next drawing scheduled for Wednesday at 10:59 p.m. Eastern time, ticket sales are going through the roof around the country.
Below, we have compiled a list of questions on who, besides jackpot winners, stands to gain from the record-breaking lottery and where the money goes.
