Financial Markets and Economy
Fed's $216 Billion Treasuries Rollover Recalls Crisis Era Buying (Bloomberg)
If you were under the impression that the Federal Reserve was done buying Treasuries, think again.
UK inflation just hit an 11-month high — but it's still only at 0.2% (Business Insider)
UK inflation came in at 0.2% for December, according to official figures released on Tuesday.
The Office for National Statistics says the consumer price index — the key measure of inflation — increased by 0.2% in December, compared to the same figure last year. That was bang in line with economists' forecasts.
Oil market could ‘drown’ in oversupply, IEA warns (Market Watch)
The selloff in oil could get even worse in 2016, as the energy market grapples with excessive oversupply, a strong dollar and a weak global economy, the International Energy Agency has warned.
In its monthly oil report released Tuesday, the energy watchdog warned that the market is poised for a third straight year of supply exceeding demand, due to those factors. That will lead to “enormous strain” on the system’s ability to absorb the pressure, it said.
China Traders Dump Margin Bets With Stocks in Bear Market: Chart (Bloomberg)
Shanghai margin debt is at the lowest level since the aftermath of last years $5 trillion rout as traders pare bets on equities that have slid back into a bear market.
This trading firm made £20 million from the craziness in markets right now (Business Insider)
IG Group, the online brokerage and trading platform, dropped its half year results on Tuesday morning, and it has had a bumper start to the year, thanks to the ongoing craziness in the global markets right now.
The markets are absolutely crazy right now, we all know that. Oil is going mad, stocks across the world are up and down like a yo-yo, and currencies are hugely volatile.
Dollar rises against yen after China data (Market Watch)
The dollar rose against the yen in Asian trade Tuesday, keeping pace with a gain for Tokyo stocks, and as investors weighed up China economic data.
Chinese investment firm launches $715 million fund for European startups to grow in China (Venture Beat)
A Chinese investment firm has launched a new £500 million ($715 million) investment fund specifically for European startups.
London-based Cocoon Networks is a spin-off from China Equity Group, one of the first investors in China’s Google-equivalent Baidu; and Hanxin Capital, a firm with a track record in biotech and cloud computing investments. The ultimate remit of the new fund is to invest in startups “whose products and services show promise and potential for growth in the Chinese market,” covering medical, fintech, biotech, fashion tech, and more.
World's Biggest Steel Industry Shrinks for First Time Since 1991 (Bloomberg)
Steel output in the worlds largest producer posted the first annual contraction in a quarter century.
Oil is bouncing thanks to China (Business Insider)
Oil is rebounding after data showed a big increase in oil consumption in China last year.
Chinese preliminary oil demand for 2015 was at a record 10.32 million barrels per day, up 2.5% on 2014's figure, according to Reuters.
Treasuries Fall for First Time in Five Days as Haven Demand Ebbs (Bloomberg)
Treasuries fell, with the benchmark 10-year note heading for its first decline in five sessions, as evidence that China’s economy is still slowing bolstered speculation of further government stimulus, curbing demand for the relative safety of fixed-income securities.
Chinas Fourth-Quarter GDP Grows 6.8% From Year Earlier, Missing Estimates (Bloomberg)
China's economic growth missed analysts estimates last quarter, suggesting more stimulus may be needed to cushion the slowest annual pace of expansion in a generation.
The maker of Ben & Jerry's, Lynx, and Dove is prepping for 'tougher market conditions and high volatility in 2016' (Business Insider)
Unilever — the consumer goods giant that makes everything from Ben & Jerry's ice cream to Dove soap — had a solid 2015.
The results beat analysts forecasts. All in all not bad, during what CEO Paul Polman calls "a challenging year with slower global economic growth, intensifying geopolitical instability, and high currency and commodity volatility."
Europe Stocks Climb Most in 4 Weeks as Miners, Oil Shares Rally (Bloomberg)
European stocks snapped a three-day decline, rising for the first time since they entered a bear market last week.
Commodity producers, energy shares and carmakers led gains in the Stoxx Europe 600 Index after data showing China’s weakest growth since 2009 spurred speculation of further government stimulus. Rio Tinto Group gained 4.1 percent after saying it will slow the pace of its supply expansion amid a market glut.
China markets, global investors, brace for growth test (Business Insider)
Chinese markets are on tenterhooks Tuesday as investors worldwide brace for data expected to confirm the Asian giant grew at the slowest pace in nearly seven years last quarter.
With investors in an unforgiving mood after recent market turmoil, even a figure that meets expectations risks being dismissed as a "massaged" outcome that obscures the country's true weakness.
Gold Retains “Key Role Of A Major Diversifier” – Dr Gurdgiev (Zero Hedge)
2015 was a troubling year for the financial markets. Across currencies, commodities, equities and fixed income, full year performance was lacklustre in terms of aggregate returns and worrying in terms of risk metrics. Market volatility at the outset of 2016 suggests we are likely to see more volatility in 2016.
Currency Blight Seen Deepening Southern Africa Drought Peril (Bloomberg)
Preventing a humanitarian disaster as drought grips southern Africa is made harder by plunging currencies driving up the cost of importing food, the World Food Programme said.
The Deeper Causes of the Global Stocks Rout (Bloomberg View)
To shed light on one of the worst starts to a new year for global stock markets, some analysts are turning to macroeconomic explanations, such as China's economic slowdown and its uncharacteristic policy slips. Others prefer to focus on the cascading influence of unhinged markets, such as oil. Yet neither explanation is sufficiently comprehensive; and each fails to account for major changes in liquidity and volatility.
Asian Stocks Swing as Investors Brace for China Economic Data (Bloomberg)
Asian stocks climbed from a three-year low, sparked by a rally in Chinese shares as the nation’s weakest economic growth since 2009 raised speculation the government will boost stimulus measures.
Bond Pain in Emerging Markets Nowhere Worse Than in Africa (Bloomberg)
Emerging-markets bonds may be experiencing the worst start to a year on record but nowhere is the pain greater than in sub-Saharan Africa.
Priciest Stockholm Homes Slip Amid Signs Tipping Point Reached (Bloomberg)
Stockholms residents have been saying for years that house prices in the Swedish capital are far too high. Now, buyers are signaling theyve had enough.
Oil Trades Near 12-Year Low as Iran Gives Order to Boost Output (Bloomberg)
Brent oil rebounded from the lowest close in 12 years in London, boosting energy shares across Asia, as commodities prices from metals to grains shrugged off weaker-than-expected Chinese economic data.
Politics
The Great Immigration-Data Debate (The Atlantic)
In The Big Short, one of the characters explains how he discovered the worthlessness of the mortgages that supposedly undergirded Wall Street’s triple-A securities: “I read them.”
The political equivalent of Wall Street’s mortgage-backed securities are the economic models invoked to support this policy or that one. Everybody cites them. Too few look inside them. And the results are the same: Trusted products turn out to be junk.
The Most Powerful Response At The Democratic Debate Was To A Question That Wasn’t Even Asked (Think Progress)
“I think every single American should be outraged,” Clinton said. “We had a city in the United States of America where the population, which is poor in many ways, and majority-African American, has been drinking and bathing in lead-contaminated water. And the governor of that state acted as though he didn’t really care. He had requests for help that he basically stonewalled. I’ll tell you what: if the kids in a rich suburb of Detroit had been drinking contaminated water and being bathed in it, there would have been action.”
Technology
Twitter goes down in widespread outage (The Verge)
Twitter is down for the count at the moment, with the service apparently suffering widespread problems on both mobile and desktop. The company confirmed on its status blog at 03:44AM ET that "some users are currently experiencing problems accessing Twitter," and that it's "working towards a resolution." Trying to access the network over the web just returns the standard "something is technically wrong" error screen, and the service is also suffering outages on apps and software like TweetDeck.
Microsoft wants to improve video calls by projecting people into your room (The Next Web)
Microsoft’s research arm is working on an innovative way to make video calls feel less awkward. The team is using Kinect cameras and projectors to capture an image of a person in 3D in one room and project a life-size version of them in another room onto a chair.
Health and Life Sciences
Chronic Fatigue Syndrome: Rituximab Revisited (Science-Based Medicine)
Rituximab is a monoclonal anti-CD20 antibody. It destroys B cells that have the CD20 antigen on their surface. B-cells are an important component of the immune system, and depleting B-cells makes patients more vulnerable to infections. Rituximab is licensed only for a few specific indications such as B-cell lymphomas and refractory rheumatoid arthritis, although it has been prescribed off-label for a number of other autoimmune diseases. If it works in CFS, that would support the hypothesis that CFS is an autoimmune disease (though this is far from a clearly-supported hypothesis, as the primary defining characteristic of CFS is exercise intolerance).
'Natural' fertilisation device for IVF (BBC)
A private UK fertility clinic is offering couples a new form of IVF treatment that lets conception occur in the womb rather than in the lab.
Doctors hope that making fertilisation more natural will mean healthier pregnancies.
Life on the Home Planet
Strong El Nino Seen Sticking Around as Cyclones Delay Demise (Bloomberg)
Don’t say goodbye to El Nino just yet.
Recent tropical cyclone activity in the Pacific Ocean has produced strong westerly winds along the equator, which may temporarily slow El Nino’s decline, Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology said Tuesday on its website. The event is still expected to decay over coming months, with a return to neutral conditions expected in the second quarter, it said.
UK to send first aid kits to Ukraine (BBC)
The UK is to send 3,500 first aid kits to the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Defence Secretary Michael Fallon has said.
The supplies were requested by Ukraine, which has been in conflict with pro-Russian separatists since Russia annexed Crimea in March 2014.
