Financial Markets and Economy
U.S. GDP, Housing, Carney, Women's Forum: Week Ahead Feb. 20-27 (Bloomberg)
The U.S. economy probably closed out 2015 in weaker fashion than the government first estimated, with the latest report on fourth-quarter gross domestic product now projected to show the slowest growth in almost two years.
Here's the level stocks keep falling to before ripping higher (Business Insider)
Timing the market is hard.
Deutsche Bank Analyst Kept Some Doubts to Himself (Bloomberg View)
Modern capitalism does not, as a general matter, demand that workers believe in their work in their innermost souls. Teetotalers can be bartenders, doctors can smoke, Ford salesmen can drive Hondas, or bicycles, in their private lives. Mental reservations are allowed. There are a few careers that are exceptions to this general rule of laissez faire. A loss of faith is, I gather, disqualifying for the priesthood.
[Photo: But does he believe in the shopping carts? Photographer: Emile Wamsteker/Bloomberg]
Are Asset Managers Vulnerable to Fire Sales? (Liberty Economics)
According to conventional wisdom, an open-ended investment fund that has a floating net asset value (NAV) and no leverage will never experience a run and hence never have to fire-sell assets. In that view, a decline in the value of the fund’s assets will just lead to a commensurate and automatic decline in the fund’s equity—end of story. In this post, we argue that the conventional wisdom is incomplete and then explore some of the systemic risk consequences of investment funds’ vulnerabilities to fire-sale spillovers.
Soda Maker Cott Rallies as Much as 12% After Unexpected Profit (Bloomberg)
An unexpected fourth-quarter profit boosted Cott Corp., pushing the beverage maker’s shares to their biggest gain in five months.
Fed's next move much more likely a rate hike than a cut: survey (Business Insider)
The Federal Reserve's next policy move is much more likely to be a rate hike than a rate cut, although over the next two years a return to zero rates is a rising possibility, according to a New York Fed survey of primary dealers published on Thursday.
Why Sovereign and Wealth Funds are Selling Equities (Institutional Investor)
The Saudi Arabia markets have been roiled this year by rumors that sovereign wealth funds of oil dependent states are selling foreign assets to redirect money home to plug budget deficits and repatriate capital.
Walmart Profit Fell 8% in 4th Quarter (NY Times)
Walmart said on Thursday that profit fell about 8 percent last quarter, and it lowered its sales forecast for this year, citing a strong dollar and the costs of a plan to close more than 200 stores worldwide.
Walmart, based in Bentonville, Ark., has been fighting for a firmer footing in a retail market increasingly dominated by the online behemoth Amazon.
Economy looks good despite market turmoil (Market Watch)
Despite the “Sturm und Drang” of international and market developments, the U.S. economy “is, all in all, looking pretty good,” said San Francisco Fed President John Williams on Thursday.
Oil Gains This Big Only Happen Around Bottoms (Indexology)
The S&P GSCI (WTI) Crude Oil posted a 3-day gain of 14.4% ending Feb. 17, 2016. This is the biggest 3-day gain in about 6 months for the index, and gains of this magnitude have only happened near oil bottoms.
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One chart that should strike fear into investors everywhere (Business Insider)
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York has a new post on its Liberty Street Economics blog that focuses on the potential for fire sales in times of stress.
The Market is Always Right? (Pension Partners)
“The Market is always right.”
How Great Is Dollar Cost Averaging? You Don't Know The Half of It (Servo Wealth)
I’ve mentioned on a number of occasions that the S&P 500 has been nothing short of disappointing since the turn of the century. I hope that every single reader who is still adding money to their investment portfolio on a regular basis (“dollar-cost-averaging”) has thought to themselves: that’s good for me! If you didn't, let me get you there. You see, low returns on stocks keeps prices depressed and allows savers an extended opportunity to buy more shares that should eventually shoot higher. And more shares at these higher prices means more wealth!
U.S. Stocks Little Changed (Wall Street Journal)
U.S. stocks fell Thursday, as tepid earnings and declines in energy shares put the brakes on a three-day rally.
The US rates market appears 'significantly mispriced' right now (Market Watch)
The US 10-year yield ended 2015 at 2.30% before tumbling almost 80 basis points to a low of 1.53% on February 11 amid fears of a global recession.
The Bizarre Money Triangle at the Top of Viacom (Bloomberg)
On the morning of Friday, Jan. 29, Stephen Read, a geriatric psychiatrist, paid a visit to the Beverly Hills mansion of Sumner Redstone, the 92-year-old media mogul. Under a court order, Read had been granted up to one hour to test Redstone’s mental competency on behalf of a client, who was suing the billionaire.
Will Real Estate Investors Take Over Airbnb? (Priceonomic)
In 2012, Jon Wheatley bought a $40,000 apartment in Las Vegas so that he could rent it out on Airbnb.
“I was surprised by just how cheap real estate was in Las Vegas,” says the British-born Wheatley. “I didn’t want to live in Vegas, and I wasn’t planning on being there very much. So when I looked at Airbnb, it looked almost too good to be true.”
How BuzzFeed's Jonah Peretti Is Building A 100-Year Media Company? (Fast Company)
Ask BuzzFeed CEO Jonah Peretti about his influences, and his answer sounds like, well, a BuzzFeed post—one titled "The Three Historical References That Explain BuzzFeed Will Make You Say WTF." Peretti first points to a company that started more than 100 years ago, Paramount Pictures, which owned a film production studio, its own cast of talent, and its own distribution channel in the form of theaters. "That allowed them to adapt and change as the market changed," says Peretti.
Your Landlord Is a Drag on Growth (Bloomberg View)
After many decades of essentially ignoring the role of land, economists are starting to reconsider. Some are worried that landlords are hurting growth by making it too expensive to live in highly productive cities. Now, some are starting to think about how land figures in the rise in inequality.
Marks' Oaktree Seen Nearing $1 Billion Gain on Gundlach Bet (Bloomberg)
Oaktree Capital Group LLC co-founder Howard Marks is known as a shrewd investor. One of his best decisions was spending about $20 million in 2009 for a one-fifth stake in Jeffrey Gundlach’s upstart investment firm.
15 Most Actively Traded ETFs (ETF)
Volatility and uncertainty are abounding in financial markets so far this year. Rather than being paralyzed by fear, traders are embracing the big moves. Trading action across exchanges has spiked amid this year's stock market rout.
Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts (Jesse's Cafe American)
The data from The Bucket Shop is really not very instructive, except to paint the broader trends, and the little 'tells' of problems behind the curtain, if you are adept enough to watch for them.
Politics
Is This Finally It for Jeb Bush? (The Atlantic)
This is not the first time that the pundits have declared a Jeb Bush campaign deathwatch, but the vital signs are getting weaker and weaker, and South Carolina may provide the final blow.
The latest bad news came on Wednesday, when popular Governor Nikki Haley endorsed Senator Marco Rubio. Her backing gives Rubio another boost in his quest to consolidate the backing of the Republican establishment against Donald Trump and Ted Cruz, and it makes it even harder for Bush to do that.
On Planet Clinton, Everyone's a Critic (Bloomberg View)
Hillary Clinton's New Hampshire trouncing at the hands of Bernie Sanders has set Clintonland afire. The rout set loose a cacophony ofcomplaints from allies about the candidate's campaign strategy and staff.
If she loses the Nevada caucuses this weekend the clamor will grow louder.
Technology
Guy uses robotic limb to play drums with 3 arms (Futurity)
Scientists have created a new “smart arm”—a robotic wearable limb that can be attached to the shoulder to let drummers play with three arms.
The two-foot long “smart arm,” that can be attached to a musician’s shoulder, responds to human gestures and the music it hears. When the drummer moves to play the high hat cymbal, for example, the robotic arm maneuvers to play the ride cymbal. When the drummer switches to the snare, the mechanical arm shifts to the tom.
This tiny disc can record and preserve human history for billions of years (The Technology)
On Tuesday (Feb. 17), a group of researchers from the University of Southampton’s Optical Research Center announced they have developed a new way to store data that can keep your digital information safe for an estimated 13.8 billion years.
Health and Life Sciences
Sleepy kids with autism act out during the day (Futurity)
Children with autism spectrum disorder often have trouble sleeping at night, which in turn makes it hard for them to control their behavior during the day.
“Past research has found that children with ASD often have trouble sleeping at night. Many children with ASD also struggle with regulating their behavior during the day,” says Micah Mazurek, assistant professor of health psychology at the University of Missouri.
When Cancer Treatment Offers Hope More Than Cure (NY Times)
And like a cat, over the years, no matter the adversity — the extreme toxicities that resulted from her many rounds of chemotherapy, the bowel perforation that left her with an ostomy, the trips to the intensive care unit — she always landed on her feet, the wattage of her personality undimmed.
Common Antibiotics May Cause Delirium, Confusion And Hallucinations (Forbes)
I have long had severe reservations about quinolone antibiotics, like Levaquin and Cipro. I have had these concerns since I conducted clinical trials to test new antibiotics (including a variety of quinolones) before they went to market. Now I have further concerns about them because of their overuse as an alternative to busy physicians trying to puzzle out what’s wrong with the patient, and because practice “guidelines” promote their overuse.
Life on the Home Planet
Rio Has Given Up On Its Goal To Clean Up The Water In Time For The Olympics (Gizmodo)
When bidding to host the 2016 Summer Olympics, Rio de Jaineiro promised the International Olympics Committee that it would eliminate 80 percent of the sewage found in the city’s notoriously filthy water, and would fully regenerate the lagoon in which rowing and kayaking events will be held. Now a few months from the start of the games, Rio has given up on keeping those promises.
'Consequences' if US quits Paris deal (BBC)
The US faces "diplomatic consequences" if a new President decides to pull out of the Paris Climate Agreement.
American climate envoy Todd Stern said the reaction would be far greater than when the US left the Kyoto Protocol under President Bush.
