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Saturday, December 6, 2025

Top Trades for Thu, 22 Sep 2016 11:50 – CBI, SKX, TLT, AMZN and Market Notes

Seems like we may be peaking now that Europe is closing - they are far too excited but DAX finishing up near the 2.5% mark, which means more likely it's only weak retracing ahead of a bigger run up, so wwe can't be too bearish. 

Nonetheless, the lines I'm watching are 18,350, 1,250, 2,170 and 4,875 and 16,850 on /NKD and I like the 3 of 5 rule for shorting those.  Very dangerous but could be very rewarding too.  

BOJ and Fed action both doveish yesterday and we're struggling just to get back to the highs from the beginning of the month (before hawkish Fed statements dropped us?  That rumor is over, why aren't we back at 2,180?   Clearly there's more to it than just the Fed but it did bring in a boatload of bag-holders!  

Speaking of bag-holders.

Sure Japar, here's two new plays for you!  wink

CBI - From scratch I'd sell the 2019 $22.50 puts for $4 and buy the $27.50 ($6.40)/40 ($2.60) bull call spread for $3.80 so net 0.20 credit on the $12.50 spread could be very rewarding or you'll own CBI at net $22.30, about 20% off from here.

SKX - Starting from scratch on this one I'd sell the 2019 $18 puts for $3.20 and buy the 2019 $22 ($5.50)/30 ($3) bull call spread at $2.50 which is a net 0.70 credit so the worst case is owning SKX at net $17.30, a 20% discount to the current price.

Mon popped nicely off the bullish wedge.  

TLT/JMD - I never got out.  We're still in the Dec $140/133 bear put spread, now $4.  January is a long way away and the Fed is still indicating a hike between now and then.  

Sounds right Pstas but we love that kind of market.  That's why we're up so much in the STP, in fact, we've been rangey for years.

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