You're welcome 8800.
Mild winter/QC - Yes, I said that - we looked at the maps in yesterday's webinar.
Submitted on 2016/10/25 at 10:12 am
/NG/CRS – The contract just rolled over to Dec (/NGZ6) and demand outlook isn't looking good on mild weather and hurricane season was a bust and it was getting ahead of itself anyway (which is why we stopped being long the Futures).
Doesn't change our long-term outlook, which is export-driven.
By the way, it's not about how much of our supply - it's about how much of our surplus will go. Currently, we have 20Tcf of production and 4Tcf in storage which means we're using a good part of 20Tcf so, if we are going to export 2.5Tcf (7 x 365), we will very quickly, NEXT YEAR, bring Nat Gas low in the 5-year storage range and, then next year, unless we significantly ramp up production, we could actually have a shortage!
On top of that, they plan on putting out cars and trucks that run on the stuff - yikes!
This map was our buying premise for last year:
So now we're up to $3 and Japan is down to $6.60, which is just what we expected to happen and that's how we're targeting $4 at the end of next year as more LNG gets shipped and global prices begin to equalize.
Dollar/Latch - I love "analysts" who start their premise off with TA and then begin to project what will happen if the TA move comes to pass. It's like a OBGYN predicting you'll need to buy a lot of sports equipment and prepare for sports-related injuries because you're going to have a boy and he knows this because you are wearing blue.
Traders have pushed the dollar higher based on their confidence of an approaching divergence in central bank policies – that is, a tightening by the Fed even as other systemically important institutions such as the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England and the People’s Bank of China maintain or intensify their loose stance.
