Tanstaafl/Motox - No there isn't but that's a big problem, unfortunately. The government should have extended any mortgage payment by 3 months and paid the interest charges (or even let the payee pay interest only) for 3 months. That would have put real money into the system without changing things too much. Then they could have handled renters by maybe giving a credit for the period of the shutdown. Not a free lunch, just a deferred one.
AMZN/8800 - Too scary to bet against. I would argue that you've moved people AMZN habits forwards by 5 years so, if they hold onto these new customers - they could get some monstrous growth when this is over. Still not worth 110 times earnings but I've been saying that for years and no one seems to care.
| Year End 31st Dec | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020E | 2021E | CAGR / Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
$m
|
88,988 | 107,006 | 135,987 | 177,866 | 232,887 | 280,522 | 334,053 | 391,394 | 25.8% |
|
$m
|
178 | 2,233 | 4,186 | 4,106 | 12,421 | 14,541 | 141% | ||
|
$m
|
-241 | 596 | 2,371 | 3,033 | 10,073 | 11,588 | 14,227 | 20,464 | |
|
$
|
-0.522 | 1.25 | 4.90 | 4.55 | 19.8 | 23.0 | |||
|
$
|
-0.522 | 1.25 | 4.90 | 4.55 | 19.8 | 23.0 | 28.3 | 39.7 | |
|
%
|
+292 | -7.08 | +336 | +15.9 | +22.9 | +40.7 | |||
|
x
|
99.4 | 80.9 | 57.5 | ||||||
|
|
4.35 | 1.99 | 1.63 | ||||||
Even making $20Bn a year, it's hard to swallow their $1.15Tn valuation. AAPL makes $20Bn a quarter and Buffett just lost $54.5Bn in his portfolio. Berkshire's valuation is just $430Bn and they make $20Bn year....
Good article on the Berkshire meeting.
Tesla's Illusory Liquidity: An Update And Cash Burn Estimate
Speaking of Berkshire, Buffett has been buying his own shares, about $2Bn worth (0.5%) in Q1 and it's likely he did say around $190-200 so, below that, I think he'll buy more.
