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Monday, August 15, 2022


Fed Fueled Thursday – Putin Puts Powell on Pause

Oil hit $116.57 overnight.

Now it's "down" to $112.50 as Russian troops contine to march and bombard their way to Kyiv and one million out of 40M people in Ukraine have been driven out – becomming the kind of refugees Republicans would build a wall to keep from safety and sanctuary.  I mean, look at these two kids, exactly the kind of people our ex-President warned us about when he said:

"When Mexico sends its people, they're not sending their best.  They're not sending you.  They're not sending you.  They're sending people that have lots of problems, and they're bringing those problems with us. They're bringing drugs. They're bringing crime. They're rapists." – Trump

THIS is how people become refugees, Governments change, homes are destroyed, people find themselves on the wrong side of wars they had nothing to do with and they have nowhere to go in their home country (and yes, there are economic refugees also, just looking for opportunity in a country that used to call itself "The Land of Opportunity"), so they end up being "refugees" and what they need is help – not scorn.  

Could you imagine if President Biden said he'd be happy to take 100,000 Ukranian refugees?  Even though the US could sure use 100,000 new workers – you KNOW what the reaction would be.  Air BnB (ABNB), on the other hand, put up a page asking their rental partners to host some refugees, charging nothing and providing insurance for people willing to lend their unused housing to refugees.  They expect to be able to house 100,000 refugees for up to 14 days – a huge help in the crisis – kudos to them!

Meanwhile, all this is great for the market (apparently) as it has made Powell tip his hand and assure Congress that there will only be a 0.25% rate hike in March – not the 0.5% expected and that was all the markets needed to hear yesterday to set off a very nice rally because, in the end, the markets don't care about a war in Ukraine any more than they care about 2,000 people a day still dying of Covid in the US or the latest Intergovernmental Pannel on Climate Change report that essentially says we are all going to die.  If we are going to die – then we'll do it at 40 times earnings, I guess…

Unit Labor Costs this morning were up 0.9% in Q4 vs 0.3% expected by our finest Economorons – off by 200% is right in their wheel-house.  Tomorrow we get Non-Farm Payrolls with about 400,000 new jobs expected but if hourly earnings (0.5% expected) are as bad as Unit Labor Costs – the market is not going to like that at all.

Meanwhile, enjoy the rally.



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Good Morning.

Good Morning 

YETI   Buy rating from Jeffries.   $120 price target .   I'l take that and the $39,500 from our spread :

Yesterday, we hosted meetings with mgmt, which were upbeat in our view. We continue to see innovation in new and existing product categories, geographic expansion, and customization as key go-forward growth drivers with substantial whitespace oppty. We note that mgmt remains committed to the wholesale channel, as it introduces the brand to new and diverse buying occasions, citing that customers are commonly multi-channel shoppers. Pricing consistency remains a key pillar of the go-to-market strategy and we believe that more broad pricing action is a potential lever to mitigate inflationary impacts if they prove to be longer-lasting than what’s currently being contemplated. And in terms of capital allocation, while the company views current trading levels as a tactical oppty for a buyback, mgmt emphasized that investment in organic growth remains the top priority. We remain Buy-rated and see an extremely attractive entry point for shares.

interactive brokers sent me multiple messages yesterday that they were increasing margin requirements for all oil derivatives products by `15 percent .

you would almost think they were aware in advance of how volitile it was to become this morning.

the futures indexes appear to be moving inversely with price of oil this morning.

adolph – Hell ain't a bad place to be….


Russia’s war in Ukraine: complete guide in maps, video and pictures

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