Woeful Wednesday – Tit for Tariff Continues

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Trump tariffs would inflate prices of Chinese-dominated products: analysis  - Nikkei AsiaWe are now charging Americans a 104% TAX on Chinese goods. 

China is responding with an 84% TAX on US goods but a tax only matters when you have no choice. On the left are things we buy from China and most of it is electronics and no, Mr. President, other countries can’t just start making iPhones for us instead – it would take years for the supply chains to shift. In fact, Tim Apple (AAPL) HAS been transitioning iPhone production from China to Vietnam (who you are also tariffing 46%) and SINCE 2020 (when China shut down during Covid), AAPL has moved 10% of it’s production to Vietnam.

article imageYes, that’s 10% in 4 (FOUR) years! And let me tell you about those assembly jobs Trump wants to win back: MONTHLY wages of up to 12 Million Dong with up to 1M Dong as a signing bonus alone! No wonder the GOP wants those jobs back – that’s $512 PER MONTH in US Dollars or $128 PER WEEK and, best of all, it’s the kind of labor that can be done by children – Republicans have been looking for ways to put children back to work since Child Labor was banned in 1938 (an earlier attempt to ban it was overturned by the Supreme Court in 1918 but no worries of that happening in Trump’s America!).  

In fact, Trump/Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency has found a brilliant way to “put America first” – by slashing all Federal Grants aimed at fighting Child Labor Worldwide! Nothing screams “Make America Great Again” like letting 10-year-olds hack away at cacao pods with machetes in West Africa.

Apparently, saving 78 million children from the horrors of forced labor over the past two decades have been “foreign handouts” that “put America last,” according to Labor Department spokesperson Courtney Parella. Never mind that these programs helped American companies ensure their supply chains weren’t built on the backs of exploited children. Who needs ethical sourcing when you can just have “oversight and accountability” – whatever that means in Musk’s dystopian vision of efficiency.

And let’s not forget the “bloat” that was the Bureau of International Labor Affairs, those pesky do-gooders who dared to research and report on modern slavery and child labor. I mean, who needs to know if their sneakers were stitched together by a 12-year-old in a sweatshop? As our President will tell you: Ignorance is Bliss, isn’t it?

Amazon.com: Anti-Child Labor Poster Namerican Exhibit Panel Saying That  Child Workers Are More Likely To Have Serious Accidents In The Workplace ...But fear not, American Apparel and Footwear Association, because Trump’s got your back! He’s “leveling the playing field” by ensuring you can compete with countries that happily exploit children and slave labor – by having child and slave labor of your own! It’s the “America First” strategy at its finest – racing to the bottom… Orlando Democratic Representative Anna Eskamani said allowing children to work longer hours for less money could negatively impact wages for adult workers:

“When you saturate the workforce with cheap labor, and this will be what happens, it impacts every worker’s bargaining power, every worker’s ability to advocate for better benefits and for better wages. So, it’s not just even impacting children. Really is a ripple effect in the entire system of our economy.”

See, she gets it – child labor will lower ALL labor costs for our Corporate Masters – let’s put those kids to work and Make America GREAT, again! And just in case you were worried about those pesky Labor Department employees with their “expertise” in fighting child labor, Trump’s got a solution for that too! Deferred resignations and voluntary early retirements for everyone! Because who needs experienced professionals when you can replace them with…well, probably robots programmed by Elon Musk but, for now – CHILDREN

So, while we’re busy taxing ourselves into oblivion and dismantling the few safeguards we had against global exploitation, remember: it’s all in the name of “America First.” If that happens to mean a few million more children get to work in hazardous conditions for sub-par wages while missing out on their actual childhood – well, that’s just the price of freedom, right?

There’s no logic to a tariff plan (at all, actually) that doesn’t steer Corporations to create GOOD American jobs, NOT Child Jobs or Robot Jobs sub-living wage jobs. That’s like starting a mattress war so Americans will be able to sleep on beds of nails, again… What is the end game here because the opening gambit is CHAOS!!! and the destruction of the US Economy. Trump said real men (women don’t count of course) will withstand the pain and endure the hardships – but WHY???  What is the goal???

This escalating trade war has sent Apple’s stock into its steepest drop in 5 years as investors grapple with the sobering reality that there’s no easy escape from these tariffs. Companies like Honey-Can-Do International, which had already reduced their Chinese manufacturing in good faith from 70% to under a third since Trump’s first term, now find their diversification strategies in tatters as Vietnam, Taiwan, and other alternative manufacturing hubs face punitive tariffs as well.

Finviz Chart

The Economic impact will be severe. Jerome Powell has warned these tariffs will increase Inflation and hinder economic growth. The Yale Budget Lab projects that auto tariffs alone could add $6,400 to the average new car price, while American households may face $1,500-$4,600 in additional costs annually. Some analysts are already revising growth forecasts downward and warning of increased Recession risks while others have their heads firmly in the sand.  

What is particularly concerning is that China isn’t even America’s largest trading partner – they rank third behind ASEAN and the European Union. Yet the 104% tariff on Chinese goods is by far the most extreme measure taken, potentially pushing China to strengthen trade relationships with BRICS nations instead and those other nations are being pushed away from America and onto China’s “Belt and Road” initiative.

China trading partners

Oh my God! I didn’t know China traded with other countries,” right? This is the FATAL (for the US Economy) flaw in Trump’s strategy – China doesn’t NEED us as much as he thinks it does. JUST Hong Kong has as much of a trade surplus with China as the entire United States (and not so united anymore, are we) and, with Trump declaring Trade War on THE ENTIRE WORLD – don’t you think those other 200 countries will turn to China as the next logical trade partner?  

The Administration’s stance remains unyielding, with Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt claiming “The Chinese are eager to reach an agreement; they simply lack the knowledge on how to proceed.” How condescending! And right after JD Vance called them “Peasants.” However, with China delivering $439 billion in goods to the US last year while importing just $144 billion in American products, the reciprocal tariffs pose significant risks to domestic industries and could lead to substantial job losses – IN AMERICA!!!

For investors, this creates a challenging environment where traditional supply chain assumptions no longer apply. Companies caught in this crossfire will need to completely rethink their manufacturing and sourcing strategies, but as one American CEO put it: “It’s devastating for our business. It’s upsetting. It’s disheartening. It’s exasperating.”

 

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