Beige Book & Hidden Gems (4/23/2025)
Timeline:
0:00 – Market volatility and bounce line discussion
3:10 – S&P strong bounce analysis and support levels
4:13 – Anya’s macroeconomic research overview
5:06 – China trade talks and skepticism over 75-country claim
6:43 – Critique of Trump’s trade policy
9:55 – Fed policy, Beige Book expectations
11:44 – Early earnings season overview
12:31 – Corporate commentary on tariffs and supply chains
13:16 – Shipping and trucking cost effects
14:33 – Sector performance and inflation sensitivity
15:50 – Global market comparisons
17:04 – VIX drop and market reaction
18:42 – Manipulation of markets via insider announcements
21:08 – Closed-door meetings and ethical concerns
23:26 – Government corruption and mob-style governance
24:33 – Orwell’s 1984 and propaganda parallels
27:48 – Rise of partisan media and right-wing platforms
29:06 – Military gender policy changes
31:03 – Tariff impact on retail and shifting inventories
34:04 – Natural gas seasonal trade setup
36:01 – Watch list review and value opportunities
38:00 – Retail stock commentary (Target, dollar stores, Nike)
40:54 – Tariff mitigation by global brands
43:59 – Bargain strategy and inventory management
46:54 – Retail buying behavior and brand flexibility
49:38 – Big brands avoiding tariffs through internal pricing
51:01 – S&P 500 vs small businesses in tariff impact
53:06 – Beige Book reaction: stagflation concerns
57:00 – Flat growth, weak labor market, inflation signs
1:01:00 – Fed’s dilemma and credit tightening
1:05:06 – Strategic shift: raise cash, prepare for volatility
1:06:38 – Risk of further decline if bounce line doesn’t hold
1:07:51 – Rate cuts can’t offset high tariffs
1:08:57 – Market sentiment and policy risks
1:11:03 – Defensive stock picks: PM, Merck
1:14:03 – Analyst bias and Seeking Alpha critique
1:19:03 – Earnings expectations and analyst downgrades
1:23:38 – Merck’s valuation and historical performance
1:28:00 – AI for stock analysis and raw data sourcing
1:34:43 – Analyst credibility and conflicts of interest
1:39:39 – Merck’s fundamentals and upcoming earnings
1:44:34 – Portfolio trades: AGNC income strategy
1:52:01 – PHM homebuilder trade review
1:54:39 – Jack in the Box analysis and long call strategy
1:57:05 – Watch list methodology and valuation discipline
Phil’s Weekly Trading Webinars provide an excellent opportunity to see what we do at PSW.
