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Nobel Peace Prizes don’t just award themselves, you know…
Hunter (AGI) did such a good job covering the Trump/Musk blow-up last week(was that only a week ago?) that I’ve now asked him to tackle the far-less acrimonious dispute between Iran and Israel for us:
FEAR AND LOATHING IN TEHRAN: NETANYAHU’S GAMBIT, TRUMP’S NOBEL DREAM, AND THE NUCLEAR CIRCUS
The desert air reeks of cordite and hubris. Somewhere between Tel Aviv’s war rooms and Mar-a-Lago’s gold-plated potties, the Middle East is burning—again. Israel just dropped the mother of all diplomatic grenades, code-named “Operation Rising Lion,” and the fallout smells like napalm and Nobel Prize ambitions. Let’s roll through this clusterfuck with the Gonzo intensity it deserves.
THE PLAYERS: A CAST OF PSYCHOPATHS AND GRIFTERS
Bibi Netanyahu: The Methuselah of Machiavelli. Israel’s PM has spent decades crying wolf about Iran’s nukes while stockpiling enough uranium to glass Tehran himself. Last night, he finally pulled the trigger—not because Iran had a bomb, but because Trump’s diplomats were getting too cozy with the mullahs. Bibi’s move? Decapitate Iran’s nuclear program, kill IRGC chief Hossein Salami, and frame it as “preemptive self-defense.” Translation: “Fuck your peace talks—I want a legacy.”
Donald Trump: The Orange Nero, fiddling with tariffs while the Middle East burns. He greenlit Bibi’s strike via backchannel winks, then publicly scolded Iran to “make a deal before there’s nothing left.” Why? A Nobel Peace Prize nomination dangles like a golden carrot. Remember: This is the man who nuked the 2015 Iran deal, turbocharged Tehran’s uranium enrichment, and now wants credit for “solving” the crisis he created.
Ayatollah Khamenei: Iran’s Supreme Leader, who’s spent a decade funding Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis while whispering “Death to Israel” like a broken jukebox. Now, with Natanz in flames and his top general splattered across Tehran, he’s scrambling to retaliate without triggering a U.S.-Israeli blitzkrieg. His play? Launch 100+ drones at Israel and pray the Strait of Hormuz doesn’t become a parking lot.
Abbas Araghchi: Iran’s Foreign Minister and chief nuclear negotiator, Araghchi is the regime’s unflappable “firefighter diplomat”—a war-scarred, UK-educated bazaar tactician trusted by Khamenei to walk the razor’s edge between revolutionary dogma and pragmatic dealmaking; he’s spent decades extracting concessions from the West with steely composure and a poker face that never cracks, now facing Trump’s envoys in Oman with the survival of the Islamic Republic riding on every word.
Steve Witkoff: Trump’s envoy to the Middle East, a real estate hustler turned diplomat who’s supposed to broker peace in Oman this Sunday. His credentials? He once sold Trump a condo. His strategy? “Let Bibi soften them up, then offer sanctions relief.”
OPEC+: The original oil cartel, OPEC is a Vienna-based syndicate of 12 petroleum-exporting countries—think Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, and Venezuela—who meet in gilded rooms to set global oil prices with the flick of a pen. Founded in 1960 to wrest power from Western oil majors, OPEC now controls about 40% of world crude and nearly 80% of proven reserves, wielding the ability to turn economic booms into busts with a production cut or a price hike. When oil jumps from $65 to $75 a barrel, OPEC’s 34 million barrels per day translate into a staggering $124 billion in extra annual revenue—enough to buy a few more palaces, fund proxy wars, and keep the global economy on edge. Trump’s anti-renewable energy policies have already re-empowered OPEC by eliminating alternatives.
The Oil Majors: Exxon, Shell, Chevron, BP, and TotalEnergies—these are the corporate titans who turn OPEC’s crude into cash, gasoline, and record-breaking quarterly profits. They contributed $1Bn to Trump’s election and boy, are they getting a return on their investment! Every $10 increase in oil prices can pump another $7–10 billion to their bottom lines. For Big Oil, every Middle East missile, every OPEC meeting, is a chance to cash in—higher prices mean higher margins, and a $75 summer is a windfall that will echo through shareholder meetings from Houston to The Hague.
America: The world’s biggest consumer of oil, the United States guzzles about 20% of global crude—over 20 million barrels a day—yet wields almost no pricing power, forever at the mercy of OPEC’s cartel and the whims of petrostate despots. Under Biden, America was like an addict in rehab: investing in renewables, cutting fossil subsidies, and finally making progress toward kicking the habit. Then Trump stormed back in, ripped out the solar panels, and handed the country a fresh needle—declaring a phony “energy emergency,” gutting clean energy incentives, and unleashing a regulatory bonanza for Big Oil.
Despite being the world’s top producer, America’s “energy dominance” is a myth: U.S. drillers only profit if prices stay high, and Trump’s policies—tariffs, sanctions, and fossil-fuel favoritism—have made the U.S. more exposed, not less, to global price shocks and OPEC’s production games. Every $10 rise in oil costs American consumers and businesses, specifically, an extra $75 billion a year, transferring wealth straight from Main Street to Riyadh and Houston. Trump’s energy agenda is less about independence and more about making sure the world’s most voracious consumer stays hooked—no matter the geopolitical, economic, or climate cost.
THE BACKSTORY: A TIMELINE WRITTEN IN BLOOD AND STUXNET
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2010: U.S.-Israel’s Stuxnet cyberattack fries Iran’s centrifuges. Bibi cackles; mullahs seethe.
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2018: Bibi unveils “Iran’s nuclear archive” at a UN presser—a PowerPoint so cartoonish it belongs in Team America.
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2020: Mysterious blasts at Natanz. Bibi denies involvement while sipping Scotch in Jerusalem.
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2023: Hamas butchers 1,200 Israelis. Iran arms the killers; Bibi vows revenge.
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2024: Israel bombs Iran’s Damascus consulate. Iran retaliates with 300 missiles. Trump tweets: “Very bad!”
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June 13, 2025: Bibi drops the Big One. “Operation Rising Lion” hits Natanz, kills IRGC chief Hossein Salami and several top scientists, sending oil prices rocketing 8%. Trump claims no knowledge, which makes us question even the existence of “US Intelligence” if we don’t know our close ally has been planning a major operation.
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THE STAKES: NUKES, NOBELs, AND NIGHTMARES
Iran’s Nuclear Ballet: The IAEA says Tehran has enough uranium for 15 bombs. Bibi claims they’re “days away.” Reality? Iran’s program is a Potemkin village with better PR. But perception is power—and Bibi’s betting the farm on fear.
Trump’s Nobel Lust: Fresh off his 2024 nomination for the UAE-Israel “Abraham Accords,” Trump smells blood. His playbook: Let Bibi bomb, then swoop in as peacemaker. The prize? A Nobel to overshadow Obama’s 2015 deal. The irony? He caused this mess!!!
Market Chaos: Oil (/CL) surges past $75; gold nears $3,500 again. Defense stocks (RTX, LMT) rally while airlines (AAL) tank. In Mumbai, Ideaforge’s drones jump 8%—war is hell, but it’s great for shareholders.
SWOT Analysis
Strengths
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Israel’s Surgical Strikes: Natanz reduced to rubble. IRGC leadership decapitated. Netanyahu’s Mossad-backed ops leave Tehran reeling.
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Trump’s Blunt Force Diplomacy: “Deal or Die” threats corner Iran. Sanctions relief dangled like a carrot—if Tehran caves.
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Proxy Decimation: Hezbollah’s rockets depleted. Houthis grounded by Saudi airstrikes. Iran’s axis lies in tatters.
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Weaknesses
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Escalation Trap: Iran’s “revenge” vow sends oil soaring 8%. One misstep triggers $100/barrel chaos.
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Isolation Game: EU slams strikes as “reckless.” Biden’s ghost whispers: Trump’s “America First” means America alone.
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Netanyahu’s Overreach: Gaza smolders. Lebanon’s Hezbollah lurks. Israel’s war machine stretches thin.
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Opportunities
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Nuclear Reset: Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff jets to Oman Sunday. A deal here buries Obama’s 2015 “failure.”
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War Profiteering: RTX (+14% premarket), Lockheed (+9%) feast. Oil (/CL) eyes $75.
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Legacy Play: Trump’s Nobel pitch: I stopped WWIII. Cue the gold-plated tweetstorm.
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Threats
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Axis Swarm: Iraq’s militias, Yemen’s Houthis, Syria’s IRGC proxies—Tehran’s pawns could flood Israel’s borders.
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Domestic Fury: Progressives rage: Trump fuels Netanyahu’s fire. AOC nails it: “Warmongering for votes.”
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Economic Time Bomb: Hormuz blockade = inflation nightmare. Supply chains snap. Fed rate hikes return.
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The Trump Factor: Peacemaker or Provocateur?
Trump’s 2024 Nobel nod for the UAE-Israel “Abraham Accords” looms over this crisis. By greenlighting Israel’s strike (while feigning U.S. innocence), he’s staging himself as the only leader who can “fix” the Middle East.
The Irony
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Trump’s 2018 Iran deal withdrawal turbocharged Tehran’s nuclear sprint.
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His China/Vietnam tariffs forced reshoring—boosting automation giants like Rockwell (ROK).
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Now, the president is monetizing the chaos he created to broker a “yuuuge” deal.
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The Playbook
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Let Israel gut Iran’s nuclear spine.
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Threaten Tehran: Retaliate against U.S. interests, and we’ll glass your cities.
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Trump rides in as savior: “I alone can stop this.”
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Bottom Line
Israel’s strikes are a high-risk bid to reset the Middle East chessboard. For Trump, it’s a gamble: broker peace and cement his legacy, or watch the region burn on his watch. Either way, the Nobel committee is watching—and so are voters and Trump is too sociopathic to care about the potential negative consequences.
Investor Takeaway:
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Defense/AI Stocks: RTX, LMT, PLTR (cyberwar plays).
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Oil/Gold: /CL, GLD (hedge against escalation) and miners.
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Avoid: Airlines (AAL, DAL), Israeli tech (WIX, TEVA).
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The Middle East doesn’t need another war. But for some, it’s just another PR opportunity.
THE GONZO BOTTOM LINE
This isn’t about nukes—it’s about narratives. Bibi’s legacy, Trump’s vanity, Khamenei’s martyr complex. The Middle East is a casino where the house always wins, and the chips are human lives.
What’s next?
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Scenario 1: Iran’s drones get swatted, Trump brokers a deal, and the Nobel committee wet themselves.
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Scenario 2: Hezbollah rains rockets on Haifa, the Strait of Hormuz closes, and oil hits $150.
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Scenario 3: Aliens invade, and we realize this was all a simulation.
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In the words of the Good Doctor: “Buy the ticket, take the ride.” But in this game, the ticket’s a body bag, and the ride ends in nuclear winter.
SOURCES: The ghost of Hunter S. Thompson, the stench of burning uranium, and the collective scream of a world gone mad.
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So that’s our morning’s major news as we wait for the Consumer Sentiment Report at 10 am. Amazingly, the indexes are already recovering – down about 1% and erasing half of last night’s losses. Retail investors have been buying this market like there’s no tomorrow (and there may not be!) while the “smart money” continues to run for the exits.
Today’s Market News Summary for Investors:
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- Mixed Market Performance: On Thursday, June 12, US stock indexes generally closed higher, with the S&P 500 up 0.4%, the Nasdaq Composite up 0.2%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.2%. However, this comes after some earlier volatility and small caps (Russell 2000) saw a decline. As of Friday morning, stock futures are sliding, with the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq futures all down.
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- Inflation and Interest Rates: Recent economic data, including the May Producer Price Index (PPI) and core PPI (both rising less than expected at 0.1%), suggests that inflation is cooling. This is fueling expectations for a potential Federal Reserve rate cut in September, with betting markets now pricing in around a 65% chance. However, upward revisions to April’s data temper some of this optimism.
- Tariffs and Trade: President Trump’s “take-it-or-leave-it” tariff letters to trading partners, ahead of a July 9 deadline, are creating significant uncertainty. This could lead to the re-imposition of a 55% tariff on Chinese imports if deals aren’t inked, impacting various sectors including technology and consumer discretionary.
- Company-Specific News:
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- Oracle (ORCL): Skyrocketed over 13% to an all-time high after a strong Q4 earnings beat and optimistic guidance for fiscal 2026, particularly for its cloud infrastructure segment (projected 70% growth).
- Boeing (BA) / GE Aerospace (GE): Boeing’s shares fell nearly 5% after a fatal Air India 787 Dreamliner crash, marking the first total loss of a 787. GE Aerospace, which supplied the engines, also saw a decline.
- Tesla (TSLA): Dipped slightly after recent gains related to Robotaxi hype.
- GameStop (GME): Declined after announcing a convertible note sale, possibly to fund Bitcoin purchases.
- Quantum Computing Stocks (e.g., QUBT, RGTI): Continued to see gains following positive commentary from Nvidia’s CEO.
- MP Materials (MP): Saw a significant jump on reports that the White House might use the Defense Production Act to fund rare-earth projects.
- Airline Stocks: American Airlines (AAL), United Airlines (UAL), Delta Air Lines (DAL), and other airlines saw declines due to the Boeing crash, rising jet fuel prices from Middle East tensions, and falling US airfares.
Key Things to Focus On:
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- Inflation and Fed Policy: While recent data shows cooling inflation, keep a close eye on future PPI and CPI reports, as well as any communications from the Federal Reserve regarding potential rate cuts. The “unreliable” nature of headline inflation data, due to revisions and adjustments, means underlying trends should be carefully monitored.
- Geopolitical Developments: The escalating situation in the Middle East is a major wildcard. Any further escalation could significantly impact oil prices and global markets, driving a flight to safety.
- Trade Negotiations: President Trump’s firm stance on tariffs and the upcoming deadlines for new trade agreements will continue to influence market sentiment, especially for sectors involved in international trade.
- Corporate Earnings and Guidance: Strong company performance, particularly in growth areas like cloud computing and AI, can provide individual stock opportunities even amidst broader market concerns.
Labor Market Health: The recent jump in continuing jobless claims hints at a weakening labor market. This trend could influence consumer spending and the Fed’s decisions.
Potential Trading Ideas to Take Advantage of Situations/Trends:
- Long Oracle (ORCL $198.96): Given its strong Q4 earnings, impressive cloud growth, and optimistic FY26 guidance, Oracle appears to be a strong candidate for continued upside as AI and cloud demand accelerate.
- Short Boeing (BA $201.25) / GE Aerospace (GE $235.77): The recent fatal crash and Boeing’s prior safety issues could lead to continued negative sentiment and potential legal/political ramifications, creating a short-term bearish opportunity. GE Aerospace could also suffer from “guilt-by-association.”
- Long Embraer (ERJ $49.50): As an alternative in the aerospace sector, Embraer is highlighted as an undervalued and resilient player. Its focus on regional jets, strong backlog, and diversified business segments (including defense) make it an attractive long-term play, especially as the broader aviation market recovers.
- Long Gold/Commodity ETFs (GLD $316.77): With geopolitical tensions on the rise and a weakening US dollar, safe-haven assets like gold are seeing increased demand. Consider gold or broader commodity ETFs as a hedge against market uncertainty and inflation.
- Consider Defense Stocks (e.g., LMT $483.74, RTX $145.69, NOC $516): The heightened global geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, are likely to lead to increased defense spending. Companies like Lockheed Martin (LMT), RTX Corp. (RTX), and Northrop Grumman (NOC) could benefit from this trend.
- Cautious Approach to Airline Stocks: The sector is facing headwinds from the Boeing crash, potential rises in jet fuel prices due to Middle East tensions, and softening demand. While some short-term trading opportunities might arise from volatility, a cautious or short stance could be warranted for some airline names.
- Industrial Automation/Reshoring Plays (e.g., Rockwell Automation (ROK $322), Emerson Electric (EMR $126.72)): The global push for supply chain resilience and domestic manufacturing creates a strong tailwind for companies providing industrial automation and technology. While Rockwell has faced recent headwinds, the long-term trend for automation remains strong. Emerson Electric, with its diversified industrial exposure, is also well-positioned.
- Semiconductor companies benefiting from AI and domestic production (e.g., Micron Technology (MU $113.39)): Micron’s significant investment in US-based semiconductor manufacturing, driven by AI demand and government incentives (like the CHIPS Act), positions it well for long-term growth as the US aims for greater self-sufficiency in chip production.
We are still 90% in CASH!!! in our new portfolios – so this is a great time to become a Member! Some things are going up and some things are going down (I know – how profound…) so there are many, MANY opportunities on our Watch List that we’ll be choosing from over the next couple of months but – until we see how Trump’s tariff ultimatums play out – CAUTION is our zodiac sign.
Have a great weekend,
— Phil
