It’s amazing what you get used to.
As well as how fast you get used to it. Israel and Iran are STILL exchanging missile fire but, apparently, as long as they don’t disrupt the flow of oil – no one actually cares if they blow each other up and, so far, Israel has been very careful NOT to hit any vital energy structures and America, for it’s part, managed not to burst into flames this weekend despite millions of people protesting Trump’s policies while thousands attended Trump’s birthday parade.
Trump’s tone-deaf DC spectacle was a low-energy shell of a parade as the costs skyrocketed and, despite performances from Lee Greenwood, Scotty Hasting, Noah Hicks and Warren Zeiders (yes, that was the ENTIRE line-up), about half the crowd did not stay for Trump’s speech, where Trump claimed “We’re the hottest country in the world right now” to NONE of his children, who all had other things to do on his birthday/Father’s Day, apparently.
The people who walked out missed out on the fun as, at 7pm, the big screens onstage that displayed the American flags turned to logos for UFC, the mixed martial arts sponsor that Trump likes to attend (is he paid to?). Later, the MC thanked “special sponsor Palantir,” the Data Contractor Trump has tasked with compiling data on Americans to enable America’s Government to go full Big Brother on its people – FREEDOM!
And, speaking of free – The United States Military worked the crowd and handed out drinks from sponsor Phorm Energy — a new beverage by Anheuser-Busch and UFC CEO Dana White, in the flavor Screamin’ Freedom (sadly, I’m not kidding). Though rock music blared on TV, the parade itself was eerily quiet. One video posted on X shows tanks squeaking past nearly silent crowds, sounding like a grocery cart in need of grease.
Meanwhile, Melissa Hortman, 55, a Democrat who served as speaker of the Minnesota House of Representatives, and her husband were killed in Brooklyn Park. State Senator John Hoffman, 60, also a Democrat, and his wife were targeted in their home in nearby Champlin in a related shooting. They survived and have since undergone surgery. Vance Boelter, a 57-year-old man who was said to have impersonated a police officer, has been arrested.
Authorities in Texas used those shootings to cite “credible threats” against political figures who were planning to attend the No Kings rally in Austin – although the Minnesota shooter had a list and they were not on it – indicating some vast conspiracy or maybe just an excuse to scare supporters away from the rally?
Nonetheless, protests went on in over 2,000 different American cities and look what happens when you piss off creative people who know how to coordinate crowds properly – they make STATEMENTS! Still, things were generally peaceful and that seems to be a huge relief for the markets, which are bouncing back this morning to last week’s highs.
It’s a 4-day week (Juneteenth is Thursday) but we have short-term bond auctions and the Fed makes a rate indecision on Wednesday but, after that, Powell says stuff that the markets will react to. Despite this morning’s pre-market rally, don’t expect people to be so brave into what is essentially a 4-day weekend after Powell sets the stage for his next fight with Trump.
Empire State Manufacturing is already a disaster at -16, worse than -9.2 in May but Retail Sales is the big data-point tomorrow, ahead of the Fed. There’s only a month to go before Q2 Earnings Reports and we STILL don’t have tariffs and no one knows what the President will do on July 9th. This morning he’s at the G7 meeting in Canada, which he is measuring for new drapes…
As you can see, we’re running low on Q2 Reports but still a few interesting ones to go. Keep an eye on the Dollar – now 97.76 and that’s down 1% since Friday and, if not for that, Oil would have had a worse drop and the Indexes wouldn’t be up half a point at the open so enjoy it while it lasts (maybe lunch?).
