Just 12 hours into the ceasefire and Trump is dropping the “F” bomb (and it’s not “Freedom“).

As if to snatch the Nobel Peace Prize out if his hands, Iran and Israel continued to exchange missile fire after their “truce” deadline which, apparently, Trump declared without informing them. “I think they both violated it,” Trump said to reporters on the White House lawn. But when asked if the ceasefire was breaking, Trump responded “I don’t think so.” 

The president’s mounting frustration was evident as he was leaving the White House to attend the NATO summit at The Hague. “We basically have two countries that have been fighting so long and so hard that they don’t know what the fuck they’re doing, you understand that,” he said.

I would be frustrated too and I would be cursing too – but I’m not Presidential material and I also wouldn’t be dumb enough to claim I had “fixed” the Middle East with a single bombing run on the same day – deluding yourself that you deserve a Nobel Peace Prize for escalating a war you essentially started is how you end up getting frustrated in the first place…

A row of shrouded caskets holding the vi

A US naval cruiser, the USS Vincennes, shot down an Iranian passenger jet over the Strait of Hormuz on July 3, 1988, killing all 290 people on board. The US said that the plane was mistaken for a fighter jet and its investigation of the incident called the downing of Iran Air Flight 655, which was traveling from Bandar Abbas in southern Iran to Dubai, a “tragic and regrettable accident.”

Crude Oil Chart DailyOil (/CL) is at $65.70 this morning and we’ll be looking to take advantage of the dip and make a bullish play. It’s not necessarily done going down but there are a number of ways it can pop back to $70, which would be a $4,000 PER CONTRACT gain: 

    • Seasonal Demand Boost: Summer driving season typically increases consumption by 1.5–2M bpd, tightening inventories.

    • Geopolitical Risk Premium: Iran-Israel tensions could reignite supply fears; any Strait of Hormuz disruption would spike prices or a stray hit to an Iranian oil field or refinery would do the trick.

    • OPEC+ Discipline: Despite surplus forecasts, OPEC+ maintains their overall production cuts, creating a price floor.

    • Technical Support: $65 aligns with key support levels; historical reversals occur here 80% of the time- a bounce in the very least is expected.  

USO is the Oil ETF and it’s currently at $73.92 and we are going to watch it closely to hopefully find a floor. $68 should certainly hold and the USO Sept $70 puts be sold for $4+ so, for our Short-Term Portfolio (STP), let’s sell 10 of those for $4,000+ to initiate a long USO spread.

Finviz Chart

Schlumberger (SLB) is another good way to play as they are down at $33.46 and that is less than 10x forward earnings with a $45.5Bn market cap but the company has ALREADY authorized a $2.3Bn (5%) buyback of shares for 2025 and they report earnings on July 18th and last earnings were an uncharacteristic miss – so expectations are low.  

SLB does 70% of their business outside the US, so they have risk diversity we like to have in our LTP and we can always turn them into an Income Play if the longs don’t work out but, for now, let’s try the following for the LTP:

        • Sell 10 SLB 2027 $35 puts at $5.85 ($5,850)
        • Buy 20 SLB 2027 $30 calls at $7.75 ($15,500) 
        • Sell 15 SLB 2027 $42.50 calls at $3 ($4,500) 

That’s net $5,150 on the $25,000 spread so we have $19,850 (385%) upside potential and we COULD (but we won’t) sell 5 Sept $35 calls for $1.70 ($850) and 5 Sept $32.50 puts for $1.60 ($800), which would be collecting $1,650 (32%) for the quarter. At the moment, I expect them to pop to $40 after earnings so we’ll wait to do our sales.  

Finviz Chart

In fact, since I wouldn’t want to sell the Sept $35 calls for $1.70 – let’s buy 10 of them ($1,700) in the STP as a fun play on earnings. If they do pop, we should get an easy double or better.  

There’s a couple of nice ways to take advantage of this crisis – we’ll see how things play out over the Holiday – so essentially we’re giving these trades two weeks to get on track or we’re going to have to rethink our premise.  

Powell speaks to Congress this morning and we also have Consumer Confidence (or lack thereof) at 10 am, so a busy, busy morning in our Live Member Chat Room (come join us inside!). In other news, here’s a summary of the recent items for investors, key areas to focus on, and potential trading opportunities based on the developing trends:

♦ News Summary for Investors

The market is currently navigating a volatile landscape driven by geopolitical tensions, ongoing macroeconomic data releases, and a flurry of corporate activities.

Geopolitical Landscape: The most immediate impact stems from the Israel-Iran conflict. Initial reports of a ceasefire led to a sharp decline in oil prices, but conflicting information and continued missile strikes have introduced uncertainty. This situation directly affects energy markets and broader investor sentiment. The UK’s competition regulator is also proposing increased control over Google’s search services, adding a regulatory element to the tech sector’s outlook.

Macroeconomic Updates:

  • Canada: Annual inflation held steady at 1.7% in May, remaining below the central bank’s target.
  • U.S.: The Q1 current account deficit widened more than expected. Key economic data expected today includes the House Price Index, Case-Shiller Home Price Index, and Consumer Confidence report. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s testimony is highly anticipated for clues on monetary policy.
  • Europe: Market performance is mixed across the region, with some countries seeing economic growth and others experiencing slight declines in confidence indicators.
  • Australia: Record iron ore exports from Port Hedland in May indicate strong commodity demand.

Corporate and Sector-Specific News:

  • Mergers & Acquisitions / Strategic Moves: Several companies announced M&A activities, including THC Therapeutics, PMGC Holdings, SecureTech, Gorilla Technology, Eni’s Plenitude, and Battery Ventures. Fiserv (yesterday’s Top Trade Alert) and Mastercard deepened their partnership for stablecoin adoption, and Diversified Energy partnered with Carlyle. The AZEK Company completed a divestiture.

Finviz Chart

  • Financial Performance & Guidance: TD SYNNEX reported strong Q2 results, and NextNRG saw significant preliminary revenue growth. However, KB Home lowered its full-year guidance due to slower demand. Jerash Holdings is targeting Q1 revenue growth.
  • Clinical Trials & Healthcare: Positive trial results were announced by Sangamo Therapeutics (Fabry disease) and Nektar Therapeutics (eczema), leading to stock surges. Amgen reported positive weight-loss drug trial results, but its stock fell due to existing competition. Psychedelic medicine stocks generally declined after disappointing data from Compass Pathways. DiaMedica Therapeutics, Nutex Health, and NioCorp Developments are set for inclusion in Russell indexes, which often provides a short-term boost.
  • Technology & AI: Faraday Future unveiled a new AI software update. Microsoft introduced a new language model for PCs. Salesforce launched Agentforce 3, seeing surging AI agent adoption. Apple and Qualcomm are expected to launch 2nm chips from Taiwan Semi next year. BofA commented on the pros and cons of Apple acquiring Perplexity.

Finviz Chart

  • Capital Markets Activity: Many companies are raising capital or engaging in share buybacks. GGL Resources, Silver X Mining, SharpLink Gaming, Array Technologies, Revolution Medicines, Nano Labs, Great Pacific Gold, Cidara Therapeutics, Blue Foundry Bancorp, Metallic Minerals, THOR Industries, Alset, Minaurum Gold, Crescent Energy, and TriSalus Life Sciences all announced various forms of financing or repurchase programs. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang commenced a pre-planned share disposal. Chewy announced a secondary offering by its largest shareholder along with a concurrent share repurchase.
  • Consumer & Retail: McDonald’s and Krispy Kreme ended their partnership due to cost challenges. Dollar General was downgraded by Goldman Sachs, and Ross Stores extended its losing streak on tariff pressures and pulled guidance. Walmart is expanding its summer deals event.

Finviz Chart

  • Transportation: Uber and Waymo launched robotaxi services in Atlanta. Boeing faces delays in 787 deliveries, affecting China Airlines. Oil tanker rates have jumped due to Middle East tensions.
  • Other: Castellum created a new subsidiary for advanced technology products. Keurig Dr Pepper reaffirmed its full-year guidance. MetLife provided Q2 variable investment income estimates. Three Valley Copper announced a change of business. Seaport Entertainment is uplisting to the NYSE. The Federal Reserve stated it will no longer include reputational risk in bank supervision.

Key Things to Focus On

    1. Geopolitical De-escalation/Escalation: The primary driver of market sentiment and oil prices in the very near term will be the resolution or further escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict. Monitor official statements and any confirmed military actions.
    2. Federal Reserve’s Stance: Jerome Powell’s testimony is critical. Investors will be seeking clarity on the Fed’s outlook for interest rates, inflation, and how potential tariffs might influence monetary policy.
    3. Artificial Intelligence (AI) Adoption: The continued integration and development of AI across various sectors (software, hardware, automotive) represents a significant long-term trend. Look for companies that are successfully monetizing or gaining market share in AI-driven solutions.
    4. Biotech Catalysts: Clinical trial readouts and regulatory approvals can cause dramatic stock movements in the biotech sector. Understanding the competitive landscape in areas like weight-loss drugs and rare diseases is vital.
    5. Supply Chain Resilience and Trade Policy: Companies with robust supply chains and less exposure to tariff risks may outperform. Pay attention to how companies adapt to shifting trade policies.

Potential Trading Opportunities

Here are some potential trading ideas based on the trends and news from the provided content, keeping in mind that these are based on current information and market conditions can change rapidly:

  • Energy Sector (Short-Term Volatility Play):
    • If De-escalation Holds / Oil Continues to Fall: Consider shorting oil-linked ETFs like USO or companies with high operating leverage to oil prices. However, if the market has already priced in de-escalation, the immediate downside may be limited.
    • If Escalation Renews / Oil Rises: Companies with significant North American oil and gas production could benefit due to lower geopolitical risk compared to Middle Eastern producers. Look at names like Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Devon Energy (DVN). Oil tanker companies like Frontline (FRO) could also see increased rates if shipping through key straits becomes riskier.

Finviz Chart

Finviz Chart

Cautionary Notes:

    • Market Volatility: Geopolitical events and central bank communications can lead to rapid shifts in market sentiment.
    • Dilution Risk: Several companies are funding their growth or strategic moves through new stock offerings, which can dilute existing shareholder value. Assess the long-term growth potential against the short-term dilution.
    • Company-Specific Risks: Even positive news, such as Amgen’s weight-loss drug data, can be met with a negative market reaction if competition or market expectations are high. Always research the specific company and its competitive landscape.

Always conduct your own thorough research and consider your individual risk tolerance before making any investment decisions.

Today’s going to be exciting with Powell speaking, followed by Hammack, Collins and Barr later in the day and we have a 2-Year Note Auction at 1pm, kicking off a $200Bn week of borrowings to fund our ever-growing debt.  

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