TM is also STUPIDLY CHEAP at 9x and that 9x is $26.3 BILLION/year in PROFIT against a $237.4Bn market cap at $182. They are the AAPL of the car industry:
🚢 How Top Analysts Are Framing TM Right Now—What Stones Are Others Turning?
1. Valuation is a Consensus Buy—but Not Without Debate
- Most analysts agree TM is deeply undervalued on traditional P/E, cash flow, and margin metrics—this is “baked in” to both institutional and sell-side commentary.
- TM’s sub-8x P/E, fortress balance sheet, and world-leading hybrid portfolio are viewed as core strengths.
- Consensus call: "Value remains, but the market is holding out for a macro catalyst, a change in sentiment, or a more aggressive EV/profitability inflection."
2. Tariffs—a Headline Risk With Real Margin Impact
- US tariffs: Major banks (JPM, GS, Nomura) flag tariffs as a downside risk, but they note Toyota’s North American production (over 50%+ of US sales) cushions the blow.
- Analyst nuance: “Every 10% rise in tariff exposure could take up to $1 billion off operating profit if sustained, but TM is better insulated than most Japanese rivals because of its local manufacturing footprint.”
- Bear case: Long tariff duration or escalation could squeeze profit margins and force pricing action, but consensus is that TM can mitigate most downside—unless trade war escalates.
3. EV and “Multi-Pathway”—Key to Strategic Debate
- Bullish view: TM’s hybrid dominance is a moat, especially as US policy shifts under Trump favor hybrids/PHEVs over BEVs, protecting near-to-medium-term market share and margins.
- Bearish view: Some analysts worry Toyota is “caught in the middle”—not a pure EV play, risk being left behind if global taste shifts rapidly or if BEV adoption accelerates elsewhere (EU, China).
- However, the facts: Toyota is ramping BEV launches (new bZ models), and global hybrid penetration is still rising sharply, justifying their wait-and-see capex discipline in the US.
