Oil $59.74/63.51 means yes, we should have gone long at $58.50 (topped out at $60.20). On the whole it’s too crazy to play with sketchy data availability. Gasoline $1.84 is REALLY BAD and indicates real demand destruction – especially when you consider Ukraine is knocking another Russian refinery off-line every day – things are just so crazy all over the world…

/NG hit $3.029 and now $3.069 and we love it down here. For the STP, let’s:

• • • • Buy 20 EQT March $50 calls for $7.50 ($15,000)
      • Sell 20 EQT Dec $55 calls for $3 ($6,000)
      • Sell 10 EQT Dec $52.50 puts for $3.20 ($3,200)

That’s net $5,800 on the $10,000 spread but the March $60 calls are $3 so hopefully it will be a $20,000 spread if EQT has good earnings (21st) as we roll the short calls with $14,200 (244%) upside potential in less than 6 months.

If flat, we’ll sell more short calls and end up with a free spread and, if down, we may have to roll our short puts but also we’ll sell more short-term calls and pay for the spread and owning EQT at net $50 or less would be below 10x and seems like a good deal to me!

That trade has an EXCELLENT risk/reward profile – especially when you take into account what we “risk” owning:

🛳️ EQT Corporation (EQT) – TOP PICK:

• • Largest NG producer in US, Appalachian Basin focused
  • Recent price: $54.87 (down 2.74% but gaining momentum)
  • Catalysts: 2.5 Bcf/d data center opportunities via Mountain Valley Pipeline
  • Fundamental edge: CEO Toby Rice positioning EQT as largest NG producer
  • Analyst support: Scotiabank raised price target to $70