Portfolio Review and Beige Book (10/15/2025)
Timeline
0:00 – Market suddenly collapsing; Phil checks what’s causing it
1:30 – Discussion of China trade escalation and Trump’s tariff threats
3:30 – Insurance sector selloff and algorithmic trading impact
4:30 – Phil explains fragility of the market and profit-taking triggers
5:15 – Talk about using AI assistants (Bodie, Warren) to analyze markets
7:00 – Demonstration of Warren chatbot integration with PSW chat
9:00 – Example of “Good, Bad, and Ugly” stock reports using AI
11:00 – Phil discusses building and training his own AI systems
13:20 – Portfolio automation demo with Gemini and Warren analyzing trades
18:00 – Review of recent portfolio adjustments and cash generation
26:30 – How to talk to AIs and avoid training bias; AI behavior discussion
27:00 – Reminder that Beige Book release is the main topic
30:00 – Load and compare Beige Book reports (September vs October)
31:00 – Transition to portfolio review: short-term and long-term portfolios
33:00 – Explanation of selling puts and using short-term for cash flow
40:00 – How hedges and spreads create free insurance in the portfolio
41:00 – Review of short-term portfolio performance (+27%)
42:00 – Review of long-term portfolio performance (+60% since June)
44:00 – Example trade adjustments (e.g., FISERV roll)
47:00 – Adobe options example — using spreads like a casino/bookie
53:00 – Phil explains how premium selling mimics odds-making
55:00 – Emphasis on risk control and taking profits during winning streaks
58:00 – Story about traders losing winnings by staying in too long
1:00:00 – Review of prior market cycles and timing portfolio resets
1:03:00 – Beige Book summary: tariffs, labor shifts, inflation pressures
1:08:00 – Discussion of AI, immigration, and structural job changes
1:10:00 – Fed policy implications from Beige Book findings
1:13:00 – Q&A: EPD adjustment, GFI new trade
1:15:00 – Explanation of “Warren” versions and AI integration for members
1:16:00 – Members can use Warren for stock research and reports
1:20:00 – More portfolio reviews and specific trade adjustments
1:27:00 – Whirlpool and other laggards; rolling spreads to improve income
1:28:00 – How to use Warren for “master class” training on trades
1:29:00 – Wrap-up and scheduling note (no webinar on the 29th)
Summary
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Phil opens during a sudden midday selloff, probing causes (insurance-led drop after Progressive’s miss, algos amplifying, profit-taking after a low-vol, high-valuations run).
