Earnings So Far (10/22/2025)
Timeline
0:00 – Opening; no webinar next week; upcoming trip
0:37 – Markets sliding after Trump tariff talk
0:50 – Beyond Meat spike; meme-stock takeaway
4:08 – Meme coins aside
6:00 – Report: U.S. software export curbs to China
7:10 – Main theme: money flows across asset buckets
9:47 – Housing: buyer–seller gap and slowdown
15:10 – Mortgage-rate shock; affordability crunch
20:20 – Banks/liquidity; limited alternatives beyond stocks & commodities
22:09 – Quick commodity rundown (energy, metals, ag)
23:20 – Food/meat prices; trade knock-ons (Argentina/soybeans)
24:30 – Trade-policy critique; reliability matters
27:20 – Why U.S. offshored factories
31:15 – Asset size compare: gold vs. tech vs. Bitcoin; bubble concern
39:00 – Market-cap literacy; gold supply basics
41:16 – Magnificent Seven vs. gold/silver/Bitcoin sizes
43:16 – Housing math: debt persistence; why owners aren’t selling
53:48 – Check on market drop/VIX; tariff-policy whiplash
56:15 – Gold rally mechanics; leverage risk; Bitcoin’s limited use
1:04:40 – Bitcoin RSI/trading-range approach
1:09:20 – Stock notes (TXN, CLX, KMB); prefer cash unless high conviction
1:11:58 – S&P weekly RSI; risk of ~20% pullback; hedge stance
1:14:05 – Q3 earnings: high beats, softer revenue; financials leading
1:24:20 – What to watch: Tesla/IBM/AT&T/Netflix; streaming fatigue
1:26:16 – Intel rebound; telecom challenges
1:27:32 – CPI setup and Fed next week; shutdown risks
1:35:29 – Closing; schedule update; returns Nov 5
Summary
Phil opens by noting there will be no webinar next week due to a trip, then pivots to the market selloff triggered by Trump’s latest tariff comments. He reviews Beyond Meat’s meme-stock spike, the speculative crypto craze, and the rumor of U.S. software export limits to China.
The main discussion focuses on money flows: investors shifting between gold, stocks, bonds, and housing. He highlights a deep housing slowdown—too many sellers, few buyers, and 6% mortgages trapping homeowners—and explains how this drains liquidity from the broader economy.
Phil argues that much of the year’s asset inflation in gold and tech stocks is unsustainable, driven by speculation rather than real growth. He contrasts gold’s $27 trillion value with Bitcoin’s small footprint and dismisses crypto as non-functional currency.
He reviews market setups and technicals—warning of a possible 20% S&P pullback—while noting strong but superficial earnings, with financials masking weakness elsewhere. He closes with political and macro risks: CPI manipulation before the Fed meeting, the government shutdown’s ripple effects, and plans to resume webinars November 5.
*****
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