FED Minutes & Portfolio Reviews (11/19/2025)
Timeline
0:00 – QQQ bounce levels and 5% Rule setup
3:00 – How the 5% Rule works and why support/resistance forms
8:50 – Market overview: post-summer pullback and modest yearly gains
10:30 – Why Phil remains cautiously bullish
11:45 – Q3 earnings research workflow
13:30 – Tech-driven earnings concentration in the S&P
15:55 – Tech vs. traditional company performance comparison
18:00 – Nvidia’s profit surge and valuation story
20:20 – How Nvidia enabled the AI boom
23:50 – Scale of modern tech wealth
27:45 – Profit disparities: low-margin retail vs high-margin tech
30:00 – AI adoption costs and business risk
35:00 – Macro risk: unemployment and weak safety net
36:25 – Markets navigating AI transitions (“hairpin turns”)
38:15 – Funding the AI boom: where the money actually comes from
41:30 – Historical tech revolutions vs today’s AI buildout
42:45 – Why companies must adopt AI
43:55 – Fed setup heading into the meeting
45:00 – Structural limits: chips, power, water, infrastructure
46:10 – HBO/WBD example of mature vs. speculative economics
49:00 – Core concern: insufficient real-world money for AI expectations
50:00 – Fed minutes, liquidity strain, QT nearing limits
56:00 – LLM scaling discussion
1:12:00 – Fed pivot via QT/repo adjustments
1:20:00 – Internal Fed split and December cut odds
1:25:30 – Portfolio review
1:26:00 – Recent winners and losers
1:31:00 – ISRG long-term thesis
1:31:45 – Tesla valuation skepticism and short positioning
1:36:00 – Short-Term and Money Talk portfolio strategies
1:39:00 – Oracle: converting a short-term loss into a long-term spread
1:43:00 – Adding TZA hedge before Nvidia earnings
1:44:30 – Target value case and AI shopping test
1:46:00 – Why consumer AI apps struggle with adoption
1:49:00 – Preference for quick answers vs. detailed AI output
1:51:00 – Final portfolio/hedging notes
1:54:00 – Closing: Nvidia earnings as key catalyst
Summary
Phil walks through the market’s failure at the QQQ weak-bounce line (606) and explains how his 5% Rule, buy/sell programs, and psychological support levels interact around 600.
