FED Minutes & Portfolio Reviews (11/19/2025)
Timeline
0:00 – QQQ 5% Rule bounce, weak-bounce failure, buy/sell programs at 600/606
3:00 – Explanation of Phil’s 5% Rule, Fibonacci, and how programs create support/resistance
8:50 – Big-picture market view: post-summer giveback and only ~8% up year-over-year
10:30 – Why Phil is cautiously bullish despite AI hype and prior sell-off
11:45 – Q3 earnings season: Bodie/AGI research process and collaboration
13:30 – S&P earnings growth concentrated in tech and index distortion
15:55 – Comparing tech vs. traditional companies (Walmart, Target, Levi’s, P&G, JNJ, Pfizer)
18:00 – Nvidia’s profit explosion, valuation expansion, and personal Nvidia story
20:20 – How Nvidia’s chips enabled AI; AI boom mechanics
23:50 – Scale of tech wealth vs. historic fortunes (Howard Hughes, modern billionaires)
27:45 – Low-margin retail vs. high-margin tech; where profits really are
30:00 – AI adoption math: costs, project failure rates, and risk of mass layoffs
35:00 – Macro risk: unemployment, weak safety net, and lack of preparation for AI disruption
36:25 – “Hairpin turns” analogy for markets navigating AI and earnings
38:15 – Where AI money comes from (cash hoards of big tech; limited global profit pool)
41:30 – Historical tech waves: electricity, water, internet vs. today’s AI buildout
42:45 – Companies must adopt AI to survive; skeptics are wrong about it “going away”
43:55 – Fed meeting setup: earnings season says “don’t short everything yet”
45:00 – Structural limits: chips, power, water, and fragmented AI infrastructure buildout
46:10 – HBO/WBD example: mature subscription economics vs. AI revenue dreams
49:00 – Core fear: not enough real-world money to fund AI at current expectations
50:00 – Fed minutes and repo/liquidity stress; QT nearing limits
56:00 – Large language models and “million monkeys” explanation; scaling vs. slowdown
1:12:00 – Fed has quietly pivoted: QT/Repo issues, stealth easing, and inflation above target
1:20:00 – Internal Fed split; odds of no December cut and market disappointment
1:25:30 – Portfolio review: overview of positions and recent performance
1:26:00 – Big winners/losers: Nvidia, mega-cap tech, Eli Lilly, Merck, ISRG
1:31:00 – ISRG long-term thesis (AI + robotic surgery opportunity, but valuation rich)
1:31:45 – Tesla: extreme valuation, skepticism, and short/hedge positioning
1:36:00 – Short-Term and “Money Talk” portfolios: income-focused spreads and hedges
1:39:00 – Oracle: turning a “bad” short-term trade into a long-term income spread
1:43:00 – New hedge via TZA ahead of Nvidia earnings
1:44:30 – Target deep value case and AI/ChatGPT shopping experiment
1:46:00 – Why consumer-facing AI apps struggle with adoption (Hitchhiker’s Guide example)
1:49:00 – People want quick answers vs.
