Our last major Watch List update was published on August 3rd, 2025, Part 1 and Part 2.
Back then, we were just beginning to see the reality of the new tariff regime and renewed inflation getting priced into the market. We had plenty of great ideas in August and we added a lot of them to our Member Portfolios but the macro picture has since shifted from "threat" to "reality" - even as the market has raced up to record highs in the past 4 months. The 10–35% Global Tariffs are no longer hypothetical - they are the baseline! The "soft landing" is looking harder, with US GDP projected to slow to 2.4% in 2026 - and even that may be optimistic.
We started new Member Portfolios in June and they have done very well in the rally but we are still sitting on close to 50% CASH!!! and that means we're in very good shape to take advantage of bargains when they are presented to us - but let's make sure they are actually bargains and not just satisfying an unscratched itch to buy...
One of the most critical trading skills, especially in markets like this, is knowing when your wins came from both skill and luck. Our 5% Rule™ and technical toolset gave us a decisive edge in 2025, capturing the rangebound whipsaws and profitably timing several major turns. But let’s be real: the deft trade management only gets you so far when policy chaos and macro storm clouds keep rolling in. Luck played its part, and knowing when to take gains off the table is absolutely essential – especially with today’s level of uncertainty!
The "certainty premium" in this market is thin. We’ve seen the Fed sidelined by sticky inflation (driven by those very tariffs), leaving rates higher for longer than the bulls hoped.
