PhilStockWorld Top Trade Review – Second Half of 2025

What a crazy year that was!

Our last Top Trade Review was for the 1st half of 2025 and we did that on July 1st but January, 2026 has been crazy and it’s already the 27th and we’re finally getting to this review. As of July 1st, we had 39 (78%) winning Top Trade Ideas against 11 that were “not yet profitable” and we were already up net $355,948 with $1,745,236 of upside potential at the time.

By October 9th, half of the losers had turned around and, now that we’re into our first full year, we’re cruising past $1M in profits on that set of trades, which still have another $1M left to gain by Jan, 2028 but there’s no need to chase as we’re here to review a more recent set of Top Trades – the ones from July 1st through Dec 31st of last year.  

And, of course, we have new trade ideas all the time for our Members. There were 3 new ones this month (GNRC, HPQ and GEO) following a super-productive December, which we’ll get to later on in this post, of course.  

Top Trade Alerts are a special Membership at PhilStockWorld.com – you can Sign Up Here or join as a Trend Watcher Member, where you will also have access to our Live Daily Chat room or you can join with our Basic or Premium Memberships – where you’ll be able to become part of the conversation and take full advantage of all we can do for you!

Top Trade Alerts are the Trade Ideas we feel have the highest probability of being successful each month. Sometimes there are a few, sometimes there are none – the most important thing is picking the RIGHT trades – not the “right now” trades, which is a trap most stock pickers fall into.  Here’s how our remaining 2025 trade ideas are performing so far: 

Top Trade Alert – July 10 2025 – PPL Corp (PPL):

I don’t usually brag about calls but this one set up a meme that is now the north star for pundits and investors in 2026 because, at the time (6 months ago), I said (Boaty said, actually) to our Members:  

“Boaty and I have been kicking this around and we’ve come up with 3 good ways to play utilities:

🚢 The “Picks and Shovels” AI Play: Utilities as the Quiet Winners

Your premise is spot-on: while the market obsesses over AI software and chip stocks, the real, underappreciated winners of the AI arms race are the utility companies powering the data center boom. With AI infrastructure demand outpacing grid expansion, utilities with exposure to major data center regions are positioned for secular growth, yet still trade at value multiples.

Why This Works

• • Secular Demand: AI data centers require 4–6x more power than traditional facilities. U.S. data center power demand is projected to double by 2030, with hyperscalers (AMZN, MSFT, GOOG) signing multi-decade power purchase agreements.
  • Defensive Valuation: Utilities are still valued as slow-growth, bond-proxy stocks—despite this new, non-cyclical demand surge.
  • Earnings Catalyst: Q2/Q3 earnings should reveal above-consensus power sales and, crucially, upward revisions to forward guidance as new contracts are disclosed.“

There you have it: THE original “Picks and Shovels” call from our own AGI Analyst, Boaty McBoatface! Boaty and I are always kicking around trade ideas and looking for new trends and, when we establish a high degree of confidence – they end up going into our Top Trade Alerts. We reviewed several candidates and picked just one for this alert:  

So PPL it is and we will add it to the LTP as follows:

• • • • Sell 10 PPL 2027 $35 puts for $3.15 ($3,150)
      • Buy 20 PPL 2027 $30 calls for $6 ($12,000)
      • Sell 15 PPL 2027 $40 calls for $2 ($3,000)

That’s net $5,850 on the $20,000+ spread so the upside potential is $14,150 (241%) and it’s too early to sell short-term calls so we’ll see how earnings go but very happy to double down if they miss as this is a long-term trend we can sink our teeth into.

It’s been a bumpy ride but we are on track with a year to go and the $35 puts are down to $1.90 ($1,900) with the $30 calls at $7.50 ($15,000) and the short $40 calls at $1.35 ($2,025) so that’s net $11,075 for a gain of $5,225 (89%) on the $20,000 spread so there’s still $8,925 (80%) worth of upside potential by the end of the year.  

PhilStockWorld Top Trade Alert – July 14 2025 – JPM, FI and ALLY

Since we have $458,000 in CASH!!! in the LTP (up $40,218 since June – 8% of $500,000), we can afford to plant a flag in JPM:

• • • • Buy 20 JPM Dec 2027 $300 calls at $43.50 ($87,000)
      • Sell 15 JPM Dec 2027 $350 calls at $24.50 ($36,750)
      • Sell 5 JPM 2027 $270 puts at $23 ($11,500)
      • Sell 7 JPM Oct $280 calls for $20.20 ($14,140)
      • Sell 5 JPM Oct $280 puts at $9.60 ($4,800)

That’s net $19,810 on the $100,000+ spread with $80,190 (404%) upside potential but I’d rather see JPM go LOWER at some point so we can roll our longs to lower strikes and double down or something than “just” make $80,190. For another thing, consider we sold $18,940 of mostly premium using just 95 of our 886 days – that has some very exciting potential too!

For simplicity’s sake, we’re not going to assume a Top Trade Member did the rolls and just played the original set-up (we regularly optimize our positions in the PSW Live Member Chat Room). JPM was at $297.56 on Oct 17th (expirations) so the short $280 calls would have gotten $17.56 ($12,292) back while the short puts would have expired worthless.  

As to the main spread, the $300 calls are now $47.68 ($95,360) and the short $350s are $27 ($40,500) and the short $270 puts are $25.25 ($12,625) so net $42,235 plus net $6,648 gained on the short-term premium sales is net net $48,883 for a gain of $29,073 (146%) so far on the $100,000 spread with $51,117 (104%) upside potential remaining.  

So, for the LTP, let’s:

• • • • Sell 10 FI 2027 $150 puts for $15.20 ($15,200)
      • Buy 20 FI 2027 $150 calls for $41 ($82,000)
      • Sell 20 FI 2027 $190 calls for $21.75 ($43,500)

That’s net $23,300 on the $80,000 spread with $56,700 (243%) upside potential that’s $35,000 in the money to start and I think we’re too low in the channel to sell short-term calls but I’d also like to see earnings (end of month) before selling more puts.

It’s now FISV and this one has gotten worse and worse! We do still like them down here ($67.15) but that’s no help for this trade, where we could assume the short $150 puts were assigned for $150,000 and the 2027 $150 calls are now $1.56 ($3,120) and the short $190 calls are 0.78 ($1,560). As the stock is now worth $67,150 – we’re looking at a net loss of $84,410 PLUS the original $23,300 we put into the spread is down $107,710.  

Can it be salvaged? Sure – as follows:

Liquidated the position ($67,150) 

• • • • Sell 20 2028 $70 puts for $17.25 ($34,500)
      • Buy 50 2028 $50 calls for $28.20 ($141,000) 
      • Sell 50 2028 $70 calls for $19 ($95,000) 

That’s net $11,500 on the $100,000 spread so we’re back in business at $70 with $55,650 in our pocket to play with while we wait. As a new trade it’s net $11,500 with $88,500 (769%) of upside potential and I’m sorry it didn’t work the first time but this time all it has to do is not go down and we make money! 

Again, for the purposes of these reviews, we assume you stood like a deer in the headlights while the stock dropped and took no action. For our Members, we made adjustments and sold short calls, etc. and we avoided most of those losses – having turned the trade into a profitable income spread in our Long-Term Portfolio (LTP).  

$40.72 is $12.4Bn and last year they had $8.9Bn in revenues and made $668M (18.5x) and this year they are packing $8Bn in revenues with $1Bn (sold divisions) in profit (12.4x) and next year they expect $9.1Bn in revenues and $1.6Bn in profit (7.75x) so, for the LTP, let’s:

• • • • Sell 15 ALLY 2027 $40 puts for $5.50 ($8,250)
      • Buy 25 ALLY 2027 $35 calls for $9.50 ($23,750)
      • Sell 20 ALLY 2027 $47 calls for $4 ($8,000)
      • Sell 7 ALLY Sept $40 calls for $2.55 ($1,785)
      • Sell 5 ALLY Sept $40 puts for $1.85 ($925)

That’s net $4,790 on the $30,000 spread with $25,210 (526%) upside potential and we’ll have a nice little short-term option-selling business on the side!

ALLY finished Sept 19th at $44.21 so we gave $4.21 ($2,947) back to the short caller for a net loss (as the puts expired worthless) of $237 for that period.  That’s OK as we only lose money on the short callers when our longs are deeper in the money and the $40 puts are now $4.33 ($6,495) and the $35 calls are $9.60 ($24,000) and the short $47 calls are $3.20 ($6,400) so net net $10,868 is up $6,078 (126%) on the $30,000 spread with $19,132 (176%) of upside potential remaining. Good for a new trade! 

THAT is how they are supposed to go – nice and steady…  

PhilStockWorld Top Trade Alert – July 18 2025 – Gilead Sciences (GILD)

NOW we have a trading range for the LTP:

• • • • Sell 5 (happy to DD on a downturn) GILD Dec 2027 $90 puts at $9 ($4,500)
      • Buy 15 GILD Dec 2027 $90 calls at $29 ($43,500)
      • Sell 10 GILD Jan (2026) $110 calls for $8 ($8,000)
      • Sell 10 GILD Oct $110 calls for $5.50 ($5,500)

Puts are not worth selling (Oct $105 puts are $3.50), but of course on a nice dip sell some. As it stands, net $25,500 on the $45,000 spread but your time advantage means easily double that if things go well to the upside and, if not, then you have 2.5year to sell $5,500 per quarter ($45,000 ish) not even counting short-term puts and you WILL collect at least $8,000 more premium when the 2026 short calls expire (or position at worst) so lots and lots of ways to make money and, if GILD goes down, you sell short-term puts ($2,500+ per q) and more 2027 puts ($5,000) and you use that money ($5 per long) to roll down to the $80 calls and, if lower, roll and DD and make it a 5-year recovery play.

Wheeee – look at them fly! GILD was at $124.91 on the 16th so the short Jan $110 calls got paid back $14,910 and we took a $6,910 loss – that’s what we get for being cautious! The Oct $110 calls similarly burned us for $7,310. Still, as I said before, we only take losses on short callers when our spread is doing well and now the $90 puts are $4.40 ($2,200) and the $90 calls are $52 ($78,000) so that’s net $61,580 for a $36,580 (146%) gain but it’s only a $45,000 spread (we had 5 uncovered calls) so there’s really no point in keeping this one.  

PhilStockWorld Top Trade Alert – July 22 2025 – Lockheed Martin (LMT)

Another brilliant Boaty note: “

🚢 Lockheed Martin (LMT) at $420: Is It a Gift After the Write-Offs?”

This is what they looked like on July 22nd: 

One of our favorite things to do at PSW is identify for our Members stocks where traders completely misread the earnings report! As I said at the time: 

If we’re not going to buy great stocks when they are on sale – when will we buy them? So, officially, for the LTP, let’s:

• • • • Sell 5 LMT 2027 $450 puts for $54 ($27,000)
      • Buy 15 LMT 207 $450 calls at $44 ($66,000)
      • Sell 10 LMT 2027 $520 calls for $22 ($22,000)
      • Sell 5 LMT Sept $430 puts for $15 ($7,500)
      • Sell 7 LMT Sept $450 calls for $9.00 ($6,300)

Our cash outlay is $3,200 on the $75,000 spread but the margin requirement is going to cause us to use a full allocation block ($100,000) for now. Still, if we manage to thread the needle in Sept, we can generate another $15,000 into January and $60,000 more next year is already a $75,000 return on $3,200 and whatever upside above $450 will be a bonus!

In this case, LMT was still down at $472.94 on Sept 19th so we gave $22.94 ($16,058) back to the short caller and nothing back on the puts for a net $2,258 loss. Fortunately, LMT has gone into space and the short $450 puts are now $15.50 ($7,750) and the long $450 calls are $151 ($226,500) and the short $520 calls are $101 ($101,000) for a net gain of $115,492 (3,609%) and again – it’s only a $75,000 spread so we may as well take the win and cash it out.  

PhilStockWorld Top Trade Alert – Aug 4 2025 – ON Semiconductor

So, in the STP:

• • • • I think selling the ON 2027 $50 puts for $9.75 is free money – so let’s sell 10 for $9,750.

In the LTP:

The STP commitment is the LTP’s commitment so we’ll use a bit more cash and less margin here:

• • • • • • • Sell 15 ON 2027 $50 puts for $9.75 ($14,625)
            • Buy 30 ON 2027 $40 calls for $18.50 ($55,500)
            • Sell 25 ON 2027 $60 calls for $9.25 ($23,125)

That’s net $17,750 on the $60,000 spread with $42,250 (238%) upside potential if ON can get back over 60 in 18 months. If not, then we sell short-term calls – the Oct $55s are $2.60 so 10 of those would be $2,600 using 74 of our 529 days – 7 sales like that would be $18,200 and PRESTO!!! – free spread! And that’s without even selling short-term puts.

Well, we were right about the $9,750 being free money for the STP. Those short 2027 $50 puts are now $5.25 ($5,250) for a $4,500 (46%) gain with $5,250 (100% of what’s left at risk) left to gain.  

On the second set, 15 of the short puts are now $7,875 and the $40 calls are $33.50 ($100,500) and the $60 calls are $13 ($32,500) so net $60,125 on the $60,000 spread is another one we should take off the table with a $42,375 (238%) profit in 6 months.  

PhilStockWorld Top Trade Alert – August 5th 2025 – Toyota Motor Corporation (TM)

So, for the LTP, let’s:

• • • • Sell 10 TM 2027 $170 put for $16.50 ($16,500)
      • Buy 20 TM 2027 $160 calls for $35 ($70,000)
      • Sell 15 TM 2027 $200 calls for $17 ($25,500)
      • Sell 10 TM Oct $185 calls for $7 ($7,000)
      • Sell 10 TM Oct $180 puts for $7.50 ($7,500)

That’s net $13,500 on the $80,000 spread that’s half in the money to start – so I like our odds! We’ve got $66,500 of upside potential at $200 (not far) and we used just 73 out of 528 days to sell $14,500 worth of premium so we’ll probably made more money doing that 6 more times ($87,000) than we’ll make on the spread!

I’m not worried about the short puts as I don’t mind making TM at $175 a big part of our portfolio and, when the 2028s come out, we’ll probably be more like $160 – which is ridiculous. If TM pops, we make $24,000 on the short puts and there’s only 5 uncovered short calls so we just buy more longs to cover or roll – of course. RAWHIDE!

TM was at $197.83 on Oct 17th so we gave back $12.83 ($12,830) out of $14,500 for a net $1,670 GAIN for a change. Now we’re miles in the money at $4.10 ($4,100) on the short $170 puts and $70 ($140,000) for the $160 calls and $39 ($58,500) for the $200 calls is net $79,070 for a $65,570 (485%) gain and it’s only an $80,000 spread but we have 5 uncovered calls so I’d keep playing and:

• • Buy back the short 2027 $170 puts for $4,100 
  • Sell 7 May $220 calls for $16 ($11,200) 
  • Sell 5 May $210 puts for $6.50 ($3,250) 
  • Roll 20 2027 $160 calls ($140,000) to 30 2028 $200 calls at $47.50 ($142,500) 
  • Roll 15 2027 $200 calls ($58,500) to 25 short 2028 $240 calls at $29 ($72,500) 

So you have put net $25,950 in your pocket, leaving you in the new $120,000 spread that is $75,540 in the money with a net $12,450 CREDIT so the upside potential is $132,450 (1,063%) at $240 in Jan, 2028. 

PhilStockWorld Top Trade Alert – Aug 20th 2025 – Enterprise Products Partners (EPD)

IN PROGRESS