Bargain Hunting & Retirement Income (2/11/2026)
Themes:
• Markets are strong but technically fragile
• Bond markets matter more than political rhetoric
• Energy narratives are often misleading
• AI is real productivity leverage, not just hype
• Wealth concentration from automation is a structural risk
• Avoid narrative-driven leverage traps like MicroStrategy
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Timeline
- 0:00 – Global Market Overview (U.S., Europe, Nikkei, NASDAQ)
- 1:46 – Oil Trade Setup and 5% Rule Short
- 12:42 – VIX and Volatility Environment
- 14:39 – Natural Gas and Energy Update
- 15:57 – 10-Year Treasury Auction and Bond Market
- 17:16 – China Reducing U.S. Treasury Buying
- 18:03 – Big Tech Bond Issuance vs Treasuries
- 25:16 – Fed Funds Rate vs Treasury Yields (Arbitrage Risk)
- 32:33 – EIA Petroleum Report Breakdown
- 35:43 – U.S. Oil Exports and Energy Independence
- 41:29 – Energy Policy and Environmental Commentary
- 46:57 – Current Market Snapshot (Dow, S&P, NASDAQ, Bitcoin)
- 48:22 – NASDAQ Technicals (5% Levels, Death Cross, RSI, MACD)
- 53:34 – S&P CAPE Ratio and Valuation Concerns
- 57:46 – AI Productivity and Historical Analogy (Electricity)
- 1:03:06 – S&P Self-Selection Effect and AI Winners
- 1:06:41 – AI, Automation, and Future of Work
- 1:23:07 – Wealth Distribution and Robotics Economics
- 1:28:52 – Mattel and Individual Stock Movers
- 1:29:35 – AI Spending Impact on GDP
- 1:30:25 – Ralph Lauren and Fashion Signal
- 1:31:01 – Chevron, Oil Pricing, and Refiners (Valero)
- 1:35:47 – Earnings Movers (Lyft, Robinhood, Moderna, Zillow)
- 1:41:33 – Travel Demand and Hotel Occupancy
- 1:42:37 – Satellite Expansion (Amazon vs Elon Musk)
- 1:44:45 – Investing Process and Big-Picture Context
- 1:45:05 – MicroStrategy and Bitcoin Strategy Critique
- 1:48:49 – LTP Trade Idea on MicroStrategy
- 1:50:51 – Watch List Review (Microsoft, Broadcom, Netflix, etc.)
- 1:54:03 – Netflix / Warner Bros Deal Risk
- 1:56:31 – AI Disruption of Film and Media Production
- 2:02:06 – Portfolio Strategy and Earnings Review Plan
- 2:03:02 – Q&A (Countries vs Companies, Healthcare, Positions)
Summary
Phil begins with a broad global market overview. U.S. indexes are near all-time highs, the NASDAQ slightly off its peak, while European markets and the Nikkei are strong. Volatility (VIX) remains elevated versus pre-2020 norms but not extreme, creating a favorable environment for option sellers.
He then walks through a live oil trade using the 5% Rule, demonstrating how to structure defined-risk futures trades with strong reward-to-risk ratios. The key takeaway is disciplined entries at resistance, tight stops, and statistical edge — accepting that you’ll be wrong half the time but structuring trades so wins outweigh losses.
The discussion shifts to bonds and macro pressures. A recent 10-year Treasury auction was mildly weak. Phil explores longer-term structural concerns: China gradually reducing Treasury purchases, tech giants issuing massive long-term bonds, and how corporate debt issuance competes with U.S. government borrowing. He explains why the Fed cannot simply lower rates dramatically — global capital markets ultimately determine borrowing costs. Artificially suppressing rates could create arbitrage opportunities that effectively transfer wealth to banks.
Energy is another major theme. The EIA report shows large inventory builds, higher exports, and significant U.S. petroleum product exports. Phil emphasizes that the U.S. is effectively energy independent and exporting a large portion of production, challenging common media narratives about domestic consumption. He criticizes current energy policy as short-term profit-driven and unsustainable long-term.
From there, he pivots into valuation. The S&P’s cyclically adjusted P/E (CAPE) is near historic extremes, second only to prior bubbles. However, he argues that AI may represent a genuine productivity inflection point — similar to electricity — increasing corporate efficiency. Because the S&P is self-selecting (constantly replacing weaker firms with winners), it may continue to reflect AI-driven productivity gains even if many companies fail outside the index.
This leads to a broader discussion about automation, robotics, and wealth distribution. Phil argues that AI and robotics will eliminate millions of jobs over the next few decades. Productivity gains will disproportionately benefit corporations and shareholders unless wealth distribution systems adapt. He questions whether new industries will fully offset job losses and warns of significant economic and social restructuring ahead.
He then reviews individual stocks and earnings movers (Mattel, Lyft, Robinhood, Moderna, Zillow, refiners, airlines, etc.), constantly asking whether news is actionable. His framework: read headlines, determine if the development changes fundamentals, assess valuation, and look for asymmetric risk/reward opportunities.
A major critique is directed at MicroStrategy’s leveraged Bitcoin strategy. He argues their refusal to take profits and continued dilution to buy more Bitcoin at higher prices is structurally flawed. However, he outlines an options strategy to exploit volatility rather than invest in the company outright.
He also critiques Netflix’s potential Warner Bros. acquisition, arguing the debt burden could severely damage earnings. He suggests that AI will radically disrupt media production within a decade, making traditional studio economics increasingly obsolete.
The webinar closes with portfolio strategy: wait for post-earnings clarity, reassess holdings, and look for companies that truly benefit from structural AI tailwinds rather than those simply trading on hype.
