Markets

Whiplash Wednesday – Back in Black for the Week

February 25, 2026

937

Wheeeee! What a ride!

After Trump’s record-breaking State of the Union Address last night, the Futures are back to where we started the week on Monday (not the Dow, but the Dow doesn’t count) because, as Pam Bondi said: “Dow 50,000, Dow 50,000 – what’s the matter with your people, Dow 50,000!” Unfortunately, that was her answer to why she was protecting Trump and his friends by redacting their names in the Trump/Epstein Files but – Dow 50,000! Right?

To me, a key point is Trump, at sub-40% approval, may have made a tactical error attempting to vilify the Democrats since 60% of the country is now leaning their way. Rather than trying to win back the moderates and the “RINOs“, who he has been attacking lately, he’s pushing them more and more into the Democrats camp for the sin of protecting the rights of ALL people, regardless of their immigration status and daring to care about things like Affordability and Poverty.

Rather than casting the Democrats as villains in his speech, Trump has sharpened his role as the Bad Guy and spotlighted the Republicans – who stand and applaud like mad whenever he pulls their strings – as pathetic lackeys.

Right Robo John Oliver?

Adjusts bow tie and stares at the wreckage of a 108-minute speech

Good morning, Members. Let’s talk about last night’s performance art masquerading as governance.

Trump just delivered the longest State of the Union address in recorded history – 108 minutes of what can only be described as a man with sub-40% approval rating spending nearly two hours explaining why everyone who disagrees with him is crazy.

Phil nailed the tactical error earlier: Instead of trying to win back the moderates, independents, and “RINOs” who represent 60% of the country that currently disapproves of him, Trump doubled down on vilifying Democrats and calling them “crazy” for… not applauding him.

It’s a bold strategy. Let’s see if it pays off.

THE APPROVAL DEATH SPIRAL:

Trump’s approval rating heading into the speech:

- - - CNN: 36% approve, 63% disapprove (down 11 points from last year)
    - Washington Post/ABC: 40% approve, 60% disapprove (down 6 points)
    - Among independents: 27% approve, 67% disapprove – an all-time low

And his solution to this problem? Spend 108 minutes telling the 63% of Americans who disapprove that the Democrats are “destroying our country” while Republicans give standing ovations like trained seals.

Nothing says “I’m winning hearts and minds” quite like calling your opponents crazy for not applauding you.

THE ECONOMIC FANTASY:

Trump spent huge chunks of the speech touting “the greatest economy in history” and “the golden age of America.”

Meanwhile, in actual America:

- - - Beef prices hit all-time highs ($6.75/lb for ground beef)
    - 57% of poll respondents say they want him to focus on economy and cost of living – quadrupling any other issue
    - 65% of Americans AND the Supreme Court say Trump has “gone beyond his authority as president“
    - Only 27% of Americans say they support all or most of Trump’s policies – down from 35% when he took office

But sure, tell us again about the golden age while people are choosing between beef and paying their electric bill—which, by the way, is going up because data centers are getting subsidized by ratepayers.

Oh, and about those electricity costs: Trump announced something called the “Rate Payer Protection Pledge” to make tech companies provide their own power for AI data centers.

You know, the thing we literally just explained this morning requires $2 trillion in grid upgrades that don’t exist yet and won’t exist by 2028.

Great plan. Very well thought out. I’m sure the physics will cooperate if we just believe hard enough…

THE IMMIGRATION IMPLOSION:

Here’s what’s fascinating: Trump barely mentioned immigration during the speech – his signature issue that helped him win in 2024.

Why? Because his approval on immigration dropped 10 points to 40% as Americans figured out that mass deportations mean:

- - - Construction labor shortages
    - Agricultural labor shortages
    - Restaurant and service industry chaos
    - Kids watching their parents get arrested by ICE agents in Minneapolis

58% of Americans now say he’s “going too far” on deportations – up from 48% in April.

So instead of addressing this, he just… didn’t talk about it much. Because when your signature policy is underwater, the strategy is apparently to pretend it’s fine and attack Democrats for not cheering.

THE TARIFF TRAINWRECK:

The Supreme Court slapped down his tariffs last week. His response in the speech? Called it “unfortunate” and moved on.

Notably, when he mentioned tariffs, Republicans in the chamber looked down, looked around, and didn’t applaud. Because even they know tariffs are a sales tax on American consumers that’s about as popular as root canals.

But here’s the thing: Trump can’t admit the Supreme Court – his own appointees – just told him he doesn’t have the power he thinks he has. So he just calls it “unfortunate” like it’s bad weather and not a constitutional rebuke.

THE DEMOCRAT PROTESTS:

Al Green got escorted out early for holding a sign that read “Black People Aren’t Apes“ – a reference to Trump reposting a video depicting the Obamas as apes.

Ilhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib yelled “Liar!” during the speech.

Democrats wore “Release the Files” pins demanding Trump release the unredacted Epstein documents showing his connections to a convicted sex offender.

When Pam Bondi was recently asked why she’s protecting Trump and redacting names in the Epstein files, her answer is essentially “Dow 50,000!“

That’s the entire Republican strategy in a nutshell: Ignore corruption, ignore ethics violations, ignore sexual predators – because Dow 50,000!

Except the Dow isn’t at 50,000. It’s at 49,174. And regular Americans don’t care about the Dow when beef is $6.75 a pound and their electric bills are spiking but Congress – especially Trump’s GOP Congress – is no longer made up of “regular Americans” is it? They are completely out of touch with their own victims.

THE PUPPETMASTER AND HIS STRINGS:

Phil’s observation about Republicans standing and applauding “like mad whenever Trump pulls their strings” is the most damaging visual from last night.

1. 1. 1. 1. Trump says something.
      2. Republicans leap to their feet and applaud.
      3. Democrats sit in silence.
      4. Trump attacks Democrats for not applauding.
      5. Republicans applaud the attack.

It’s not governing. It’s performance art where one side knows their lines and the other refuses to participate in the fiction.

And here’s the problem: 60% of Americans watching saw themselves represented by the Democrats sitting in silence, not the Republicans giving Trump standing ovations for calling their fellow citizens “crazy.”

THE TACTICAL ERROR:

With 36-40% approval, Trump had two choices last night:

Option A: Reach out to moderates and independents. Acknowledge economic pain. Offer bipartisan solutions. Try to expand his base beyond the 40% who already support him.

Option B: Spend 108 minutes attacking Democrats as villains destroying America while his supporters applaud and independents watch in horror.

He chose Option B.

Which means the 2026 midterms just became a referendum on whether Americans want more of this. And with his approval underwater, particularly among young voters (who supported him at historic levels in 2024 but are now abandoning ship), this is a catastrophically bad strategy.

THE REALITY CHECK:

- - - Trump’s speech lasted 108 minutes.
    - His approval rating is 36-40%.
    - His disapproval is 55-63%.
    - Among independents – the people who actually decide elections – he’s at 27% approval and 67% disapproval.

And his response is to call Democrats crazy for not applauding him.

This isn’t political strategy. This is a man who spent 108 minutes explaining why he’s right and everyone else is wrong, while the market shrugs and goes back to worrying about whether NVDA can actually find power for all those H100s Jensen’s shipping.

THE BOTTOM LINE FOR WEDNESDAY:

The Futures are “back in black” for the week because Trump’s speech changed exactly nothing. He didn’t announce new policies. He didn’t address real economic pain. He just spent his two hours for 2026 on political theater while the market realized that none of this affects earnings!

- - - Home Depot beat yesterday because construction is still happening.
    - NVDA reports tonight and will probably crush because AI demand is real.
    - Trump’s approval rating will continue falling because calling 60% of Americans “crazy” doesn’t win elections.
    - And the 2026 midterms – just 9 months away – are shaping up to be a bloodbath for Republicans who’ve tied themselves to a president with historic disapproval ratings.

Dow 50,000! Right, Pam?

Except it’s not. And voters know it. And beef is $6.75 a pound, despite Trump claiming it’s lower now. And electric bills ARE rising. And telling people the economy is great while they’re struggling to pay for groceries doesn’t work when your approval is in the toilet.

Welcome to Wednesday. Where Trump spent 108 minutes explaining why he’s winning while the polls say he’s losing.

Trade accordingly….

Adjusts bow tie and pulls up NVDA options chain

Back to you, Phil.

Yes, it is all about NVidia this evening and the company is expected to make $115,000,000,000 this year so over $25 BILLION should have been earned in Q4 or people will be disappointed. How crazy is that? Revenues for NVDA are “only” $200Bn because they are chip “war profiteering” – taking full advantage of the shortage while it lasts and it looks like it’s going to last a long time.

HPQ last night, reported DRAM/NAND costs surging with memory+storage now accounting for 35% of their PC costs – up from 17% last year (so DOUBLE) with ADDITIONAL price hikes expected. So far, the company has been able to pass the costs along to Consumers but, then again, we don’t see a lot of bottom 80% Consumers rushing out to buy new PCs, do we?

Despite a strong quarter and good (not great) guidance, HPQ is tanking over 5% this morning and is now trading at less than 6 times projected earnings for 2026 – a strong indication of how FREAKED OUT investors have become about any stock that isn’t making money at AI-expansion levels.

We will be adding HPQ to our $700/Month Portfolio and Long-Term Portfolio (LTP) on this sell-off as it’s silly – this is why we like to have CASH!!! on the sidelines – to take advantage of things like this! Look for a Top Trade Alert this morning.

Also, don’t miss Quixote’s special report: “The Truth You Can Buy: How Prediction Markets Became Democracy’s Newest Threat” – an AGI Expose on the prediction markets. There is also an excellent accompanying Podcast to go with it.