Monday Market Mayhem – Trump Praises Allah, Extends Deadline (again) and Promises War Crimes

The TACO Timeline: Trump’s Iran Ultimatums

The Scorecard

🧠 Welcome to Day 39: The F-Bomb Easter Edition

Here is the precise chronology of Trump’s Easter Sunday communication strategy, delivered from what we can only assume was a very comfortable location:

Truth Social, Easter Morning:

“Open the F**in’ Strait, you crazy bstards, or you’ll be living in Hell — JUST WATCH! Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Praise be to Allah.”

The man ended a nuclear ultimatum with “Praise be to Allah.” On Easter. To a country he’s been bombing for 39 days. This is real. It happened. The ABC Australia live blog confirmed it word for word.

Iran’s military command responded by calling it “a helpless, nervous, unbalanced and stupid action.” Setting aside that they’re being bombed daily, that is a clinically accurate description of the post.

By Sunday evening: Trump gave seven separate media interviews. Seven. He told Fox News a deal could come Monday. He told ABC News “we’ll blow up the whole country.” He told NBC he was planning a press briefing. He announced on Truth Social that the deadline was now Tuesday, April 7th at 8pm Eastern — making this officially TACO #4, with the new deadline being a 24-hour extension of the April 6th deadline that was itself a 10-day extension of the March 28th deadline that was itself an extension of the March 23rd deadline that was itself an extension of the March 21st deadline. We are now on revision six of the original 48-hour ultimatum issued March 21st.

As the Australian Broadcasting Corporation’s analyst Matthew Doran noted: “Any timeframe set by the US President during this conflict tends to be insignificant.” That is diplomatic language for “nobody believes him anymore, including Iran.“

The F-15E and the Easter Weekend Nobody Will Forget

The reason Trump was simultaneously threatening to blow up everything AND extending his deadline is buried in what actually happened over the weekend — and it is genuinely serious.

April 3rd: Iran shot down a US Air Force F-15E Strike Eagle — the first US fighter jet lost to enemy fire in the entire conflict. The two crew members ejected. One was recovered quickly. The other was missing inside Iran. Per NYT’s detailed account, the surviving crew member was a weapons systems officer — described as a “highly respected Colonel” — who hid for 48+ hours in rugged mountain terrain south of Tehran while Iran broadcast appeals for civilians to capture him for a reward.

The rescue operation involved approximately 100 US special operations troops flown deep into Iranian territory via MC-130 aircraft. They found him. They were extracting. Then — and this is the part that would make any president lose their composure — two MC-130s had mechanical failures and couldn’t take off. The commandos were stranded in Iran with their rescued officer, waiting on Iranian mountainsides for hours while CENTCOM held its breath. Commanders requested three replacement aircraft, flew them into Iranian airspace, extracted the troops in stages, then destroyed the two immobilized MC-130s and four additional helicopters rather than let them fall into Iranian hands. Iran has released photos of the wreckage in Isfahan Province.

Trump called it “an Easter Miracle” and said it was “a rescue like never happened in such an enemy territory.” He is not wrong that this was operationally extraordinary. He is also not disclosing that the mission nearly ended in the worst possible way — 100 US special forces captured inside Iran — and that it required destroying six US aircraft worth hundreds of millions of dollars on the ground in a country he’s been telling Americans he’s close to defeating.

Also confirmed but barely covered: a US A-10 Thunderbolt II was downed near the Strait of Hormuz. Its pilot was recovered. That’s two US aircraft shot down in one week, suggesting Iran’s remaining air defense capability — which was supposed to be “gone” weeks ago — is considerably more functional than advertised.

Iran is now claiming the rescue mission was actually cover to steal enriched uranium. This is almost certainly not true, but the fact that Iran is saying it publicly tells you something about where their head is.

The “Islamabad Accord“: Most Serious Diplomatic Development Yet

Here’s what’s actually happening that the F-bomb post is obscuring:

Pakistan’s Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir spent Sunday night on the phone simultaneously with JD Vance, Steve Witkoff, and Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi — separately, all night — per Moneycontrol’s reporting and The Independent.

Pakistan has drafted a two-tier framework called the “Islamabad Accord“:

• • Tier 1: Immediate ceasefire + reopening of Hormuz, formalized as a memorandum of understanding through Pakistan as sole communication channel

  • Tier 2: 15-20 days to finalize a broader settlement including nuclear terms, sanctions relief, and frozen asset releases

The plan has physically landed with both sides. A source told Reuters: “All elements need to be agreed today.” Axios confirmed US and Iranian representatives are discussing a 45-day ceasefire framework via mediators.

Iran’s government said Monday morning it has received the proposal and will “release its response in due time.” That is not a yes. But it is also not the flat “there are no talks” denial we’ve heard for six weeks. The language is measurably different.

The Independent confirmed Iran also told Reuters it “rejects a temporary ceasefire just to reopen Hormuz” — meaning they won’t do Tier 1 without Tier 2 being secured simultaneously. That’s a negotiating position, not a refusal.

How The World Is Actually Seeing This

The international picture has gotten considerably worse for the US over the past two weeks:

NATO is fracturing in real time. Al Jazeera’s confirmed reporting:

• • Spain closed its airspace to US military aircraft involved in the war

  • Italy denied US bombers access to the Sigonella air base in Sicily

  • France refused to allow Israeli weapons transport through French airspace — Trump called it “VERY UNHELPFUL“

  • Poland flatly refused to move its Patriot batteries to the Middle East

  • UK permits US operations only “for defensive operations against Iranian military sites targeting British interests” — Starmer said in Parliament: “This is not our war. We will not get into this war.“

  • Germany’s Defense Minister: “Does anyone expect a frigate or two to achieve in the Strait of Hormuz what the powerful US Navy cannot?“

Trump responded by calling NATO “a paper tiger” and suggesting the US might leave the alliance. The YouTube roundup “Iran War RIPS NATO?” is unfortunately not clickbait — it is a factual description of the current state of the Western alliance.

Russia is denouncing the strikes as “unprovoked aggression” and aligning with Iran. Cyber attacks on US energy infrastructure attributed to Iranian actors are escalating. Russia is the quiet winner of every day this war continues.

China has been conspicuously absent — allowing its ships to transit the Strait (Iran gave them an early exemption) while watching the US exhaust itself militarily, financially, and diplomatically. China’s foreign minister called for “immediate cessation of hostilities” — knowing full well Iran won’t comply on US terms.

The Stimson Center’s analysis published on Day 1 is proving prescient: “Iran in 2026 is likely to emerge battered but not broken — a costly example of American hubris and the limits of airpower.”

The Military Reality Check: What 39 Days Has Actually Achieved

Per ISW’s April 4th special report and the Facebook daily brief:

• • 850+ Tomahawk missiles expended — analysts warning about US stockpile sustainability

  • 9,000+ targets struck per CENTCOM

  • Iran’s ballistic missile launches: down from ~90/day to ~10/day — genuine degradation

  • But Iran still launching coordinated multi-front attacks involving Hezbollah, Houthis, and Iraqi militias simultaneously

  • A strike hit near the perimeter of the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant — no radiation spike but one guard killed. That’s playing with fire in a way that would end careers at any previous administration.

  • Mahshahr petrochemical hub struck, 5 killed, 170 injured — Israel calling it “economic warfare“

  • Iran’s Navy Commander killed by Israel

The war has “accomplished” its stated nuclear objective per Netanyahu — but the Strait is still closed, Iran is still fighting, the IRGC is still operational, and nobody knows where ~970 lbs of enriched uranium is. The goalposts have moved so many times that even Rubio’s current stated demand — that Iran must abandon ALL missile, drone, naval, and nuclear capabilities — is more maximalist than what the US started with.

Oil and Markets Monday Morning

WTI: $109.62 (down 1.72% from previous day per Trading Economics). Brent: $110.74 per Economic Times. Oil is up 80.59% from a year ago — the biggest annual surge in history per OilPrice.com.

Polymarket traders are pricing WTI 54% likely to close down today — meaning real money is betting the Islamabad Accord news brings oil lower. That’s the most concrete “deal optimism” signal you’ll find.

Shipping through the Strait ticked up last week to 54 transits (7/day) — highest since the war began, up from 36 the week prior per Lloyd’s List. Still 91% below normal, but the first sustained improvement. France and Japan got ships through for the first time since February. Iraq was formally exempted. The toll booth is becoming slightly more permeable — which is actually Iran’s signal that they’re open to a deal on their terms.

The Week Ahead: Two Scenarios, One Deadline

Tuesday 8pm Eastern is the moment. Everything converges there.

Scenario A — The Islamabad Accord holds:
Pakistan finalizes the MOU. Iran agrees to a simultaneous Tier 1 + Tier 2 framework. Trump announces a ceasefire before 8pm Tuesday. Oil crashes $20-25 immediately. S&P rallies 3-5% in a session. The Dow recovers 1,500 points. This is the genuine bull case and it is more real today than at any point in the war — because for the first time there is an actual written framework, an actual mediator doing actual all-night phone calls, and Iran using language that is measurably different from outright denial.

Scenario B — TACO #5:
Iran says “in due time” and time runs out. Trump faces a choice between actually bombing power plants (war crime, ally alienation, oil to $140) or extending again (total loss of credibility, markets stop responding to his threats entirely). He finds some new formulation — “great progress,” “we’re very close,” “they sent us some ships” — and issues a new deadline. Markets rally briefly, then fade. Oil stays at $110. The slow grind continues into week seven.

The honest assessment: Scenario A has perhaps a 35-40% probability today — the highest it’s been since February 28th. The all-night calls by Pakistan’s Army Chief, the written proposal in both parties’ hands, Iran’s shift from “no talks ever” to “we’ll respond in due time,” and Trump’s obvious desperation for an exit all point in the same direction. But 35-40% means Scenario B is still more likely than not.

The difference between today and every previous “deal is imminent” moment: this time there’s a written document, a named mediator doing named phone calls, a named framework (Islamabad Accord), and a named format (MOU through Pakistan). Every previous rally was built on a Truth Social post. This one has more scaffolding — but the building isn’t up yet!

Watch 8pm Tuesday like your portfolio depends on it. Because it does.

😎 Now that we are all caught up on the nonsense – let’s see what’s going on in the market:

There’s a smattering of earnings reports on the calendar and we like Levi’s (LEVI) but Delta (DAL) will be the most interesting on Wednesday morning as we’ll get an idea of how badly fuel costs are hitting the airlines. LEVI is far too cheap t $19.10 and DAL is only trading at 8x earnings – but how much of an adjustment will those earnings projection be hit by?  

The real earnings show begins next week with Goldman Sachs (GS) reporting Monday morning and then Tuesday we get BLK, KMX, C, JNJ, JPM and WFC – all before the open followed by BAC, FHN, MTB, MS and PNC on Wednesday and suddenly it’s earnings season once again!  

On the calendar, only Goolsbee and Jefferson are speaking this week with ISM this morning, Durable Goods and Consumer Credit tomorrow, 10-Year Notes and Fed Minutes Wednesday, GDP (3rd revision), Personal Income and 30-Year Auctions on Thursday and CPI is the big report on Friday, along with Consumer Sentiment and Factory Orders.

Neither I or my AGI crew would dare to predict how this week will unfold – way too many cross-currents. We’re just happy to be mainly in CASH!!! and very, very flexible for the moment.

Be careful out there!