Archive for the ‘Chart School’ Category

The Power of Simple Moving Averages, Part 2

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

the-power-of-simple-moving-averages-part-2In the end the greatest decisions around price action is made near or on a simple moving average.



The trading whales out there do not care about sophisticated RSI math, they care about critical price levels, and most of the time a simple moving average is on or near the price level.



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Apple Inc



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AAPL




Bitcoin (BitStamp)



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Bitcoin




Sure fundamentals do matter, and so does market timing (entry, stops and exit), here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination of Gann Angles, Cycles and Wyckoff Logic is the best way to secure better timing than most, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years. With our website you can chart any security in the world.



NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net



Investing Quote…



…“It is impossible here to give an adequate idea of the Law of Vibration as I apply it to the markets. However, the lay man may be able to grasp some of the principles when I state that the Law of Vibration is the fundamental law upon which wireless telegraphy, wireless telephones and phonographs are based”…



William D Gann





Novice Traders trade 5 to 10 times too big. They are taking 5 to 10% risks on a trade they should be taking 1 to 2 percent risks.



Bruce Kovner





..”The financial markets generally are unpredictable. So that one has to have different scenarios… The idea that you can actually predict what’s going to happen contradicts my way of looking at the market.”..



George Soros







..”October: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August and February.”..



Mark Twain





..”it is better to have few stocks and to watch them carefully”…



Bernard Burach











Banks & Big Blue Battered; Bond Yields Bounce; Big Tech, Bullion, & Bitcoin Bid

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Good is bad, up is down, stocks are safe, war is peace…

The Dow underperformed notably, driven mostly by IBM weakness (swiping 84 points off The Dow), but Trannies surged once again…

Futures show overnight gains, a dump at the open followed by panic-buying… and then a weak close…

Big bank stocks are not loving blockbuster earnings…

Tech is now at its highest relative to financials since 2000…

VIX jumped up to almost 17 across the CBOE Futures auction pre-market, before tumbling lower for the rest of the day…

Stocks and bonds remain decoupled this week…

The Treasury yield curve was in freefall…

Before suddenly bouncing steeper after Europe closed today…

With 2s30s…(down to 58bps today)

And 2s10s… (down to 41bps today)

5s30s is approaching unprecedented territory: it flattened again today for the 9th straight session, to about 29 basis points, before bouncing back

The spread has narrowed 10 consecutive times on only a few occasions… And has never compressed 11 trading days in a row, according to Bloomberg data going back to 1992.

“The yield curve can’t flatten every day,” said Jim Vogel, a strategist at FTN Financial Capital Markets. “But it certainly seems willing to try.”

2Y Treasury-to-3m LIBOR has inverted

All of which has crushed small banking stocks relative to the market…

Breakevens and Real Yields spiked this afternoon…

The Dollar Index held on to gains for a second…
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Short Opportunity Negated

Courtesy of Declan

Well, that didn't last long.

The shorting opportunities which offered themselves yesterday didn't last the morning; morning gaps held beyond the first half-hour of trading and bar a small sell-off into the close markets finished higher and above key moving averages and trading channels.

The Dow created a breakout which now offers a potential long play. Stops go on a loss of 24,600. Technicals finished with a new long 'buy' trigger in Stochastics.
 


The S&P finished above the 3-week consolidation but remains contained inside the 3-month downward channel. Sideline longs will need break of this channel to generate a new 'buy' signal.
 


The Nasdaq broke out above the 'bearish wedge' but still has a number of supply levels to clear. Watch for a 'bull trap' (a close back inside the bearish wedge).
 


It was a similar story for the Russell 2000 as it cleared the bearish wedge. The larger triangle consolidation is of greater significance although the new net bullish turn in technicals following the 'buy' trigger in the +DI/-DI. However, not all technicals are doing well as relative performance against the Nasdaq shifts back towards Tech indices.
 


For tomorrow, bulls can look to the breakout in the Dow Jones Index although the tag of a similiar channel in the S&P may ironically prove a better play for shorts. Keep a watchful eye on the Russell 2000 as it approaches triangle resistance.





VIX Crashes To A 14 Handle

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

If only there was an ETF that enable traders to place leveraged bets on lower volatility…

VIX has tumbled for 5 straight days, crashing back to a 14 handle for the first time since March 9th…

And as the cost of equity protection tumbles, the cost of High yield bond protection has collapsed…

Back to the old normal.

One quick question – bank trading revenues jumped as VIX rose above 20… so what happens when VIX tumbles back to single-digits again?





RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

rtt-browsing-latestPlease review a collection of WWW browsing results.

Date Found: Friday, 05 January 2018, 04:37:09 PM

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Comment: BUY stocks for dividend and capital gain, now its just capital gain….. if that lasts!

Date Found: Saturday, 06 January 2018, 12:59:52 PM

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Comment: Gold Miners forecast

Date Found: Saturday, 06 January 2018, 04:28:49 PM

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Comment: The HERD is all in, SELL SELL SELL, wait no BUY BUY BUY

Date Found: Saturday, 06 January 2018, 04:46:18 PM

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Comment: Inverse to Gold 8 year cycle

Date Found: Sunday, 07 January 2018, 09:28:03 PM

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Comment: One to watch!

Date Found: Monday, 08 January 2018, 01:05:37 PM

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Comment: Bill King of The King Report notes that based on this metric, stocks are now valued at 144.15% of US GDP, surpassing their previous peak set at the absolute top of the Tech Bubble in March 2000.

Date Found: Monday, 08 January 2018, 05:42:25 PM

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Comment: All priced in $USD for now, but for how much longer??

Date Found: Monday, 08 January 2018, 08:56:19 PM

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Comment: Interesting, more jobs will be inflation up tick

Date Found: Tuesday, 09 January 2018, 02:26:12 PM

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Comment: Oil is going to $80 via $30, maybe, shake out required

Date Found: Tuesday, 09 January 2018, 03:58:41 PM

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Comment: It is also worth noting that crude oil positioning is also highly correlated to overall movements…
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Shorting Opportunities?

Courtesy of Declan.

The indices are edging higher but the presence of 50-day MAs and/or channel resistance overhead does offer an opportunity for shorts to take a position. Market action does appear to be favouring bearish wedges with prices moving towards an apex on declining volume. The current apathy will break and how it does will define the direction of the next market phase.

Today’s action in the S&P left the index pinned to its 50-day MA. The tight intraday range offers a low-risk short play with a stop above the 50-day MA and an entry on the break of the ascending support line

The Nasdaq is also pegged by its 50-day MA and closed with a 2-day ‘bearish harami cross’; the risk is measured using a stop above the 2-day high or 50-day MA and play for an initial target of the 200-day MA.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is just above its downward channel but it wasn’t able to break above its 50-day MA. Risk is measured on a substantial break of the 50-day MA with a target of the lower channel. Ideally, confirmation would come on an undercut in relative performance (against the Nasdaq 100) but a break of the ascending blue hashed line should be enough of a cue for shorts.

The one index which is not presenting a clear trade is the Russell 2000.  While there also appears to be a ‘bearish wedge’ forming the index is more heavily influenced by the symmetrical triangle given its push above 20-day and 50-day MAs. Technicals are also more positive, suggesting it may make it as far as triangle resistance before a short play becomes more attractive.

Tomorrow will be about tracking indices near their 50-day MAs and channel resistance. A gap higher may offer aggressive shorts an opportunity, but if this strength is sustained beyond the first half-hour of trading it may become more prudent to cover the short. Breaks of rising wedge support would offer a more traditional short entry. There isn’t too much for longs to work with although some may use…
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Weekly Market Recap Apr 15, 2018

Courtesy of Blain.

One thing technicals cannot account for are news events, and Tuesday’s relaxation of fears about #TRADEWARS(tm) due to a speech in China drove indexes to a very nice rally that day.  That said we’ve stated that fear has been a bit overblown and emotional as we are in the bluster and trial balloon stage.

Monday, Trump tweeted “China will take down its Trade Barriers because it is the right thing to do. Taxes will become Reciprocal & a deal will be made on Intellectual Property.”  Tuesday, Chinese President Xi Jinping made a speech touting plans to give foreign companies greater access to financial and manufacturing sectors. He also talked about a cut in tariffs on car imports and an improvement in protection of intellectual property, among other measures.

“It was a short-term surprise to the risk markets that Xi put out a positive comment saying he’s open to trade negotiations and relaxing trade restrictions. This is going to be an ongoing issue for months, but for today it’s a shot of adrenaline,” said Chad Morganlander, senior portfolio manager at Washington Crossing Advisors.

All that said, more #TRADEWARS(tm) hand waving could be coming as it was reported late in the week the White House plans to step up pressure on China to make trade concessions, via a plan for fresh tariffs and a threat to block Chinese technology investments in the U.S. Details of which Chinese products are on the hit-list of $100 billion in tariffs could be revealed as soon as next week.

For the week the S&P 500 gained 2% and the NASDAQ 2.8%.

Crude oil rallied through the week, hitting the highest levels since late 2014 as the tensions in the Middle East fed concerns over potential supply disruptions in the region.

“With the U.S. oil production set to rise further in the coming months, the global oil market will likely remain amply supplied in the long-term. We therefore think that oil prices will struggle to rise significantly further, although in the short-term price spikes


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Tentative Breakouts Fail To Hang On

Courtesy of Declan

Markets had started Friday above the marked consolidations I had drawn on the charts but subsequently ended the week still inside these trading ranges. As a two-day pattern, Friday's close finished as a bearish engulfing pattern across markets which means I'll be looking for a break of newly drawn ascending support (of the last 8 days) in these indices.

The S&P still has a MACD and On-Balance-Volume  trigger 'buy' signals but Friday's high (and the high of the bearish engulfing pattern) was the 50-day MA. Sidelined bulls will want to see a convincing break of the 50-day MA, and probably the downward channel before committing. Bears have the easier play – helped by the strong relative underperformance of the index against its peers. Short the loss of Friday's low with a stop above 2,680.
 


The Nasdaq is in a similar position to the S&P; Friday's reversal came away from converged 20-day and 50-day MAs with a similar technical picture. The same short play opportunity is on offer: sell loss of 7,708 with a stop above 7,185.
 


The Russell 2000 actually managed to clear its consolidation, its 20-day and 50-day MAs. Unlike other indices, there was no drop back inside the consolidation.  In addition, relative performance continued to improve.  All this suggests a bullish outlook but I have also drawn in a possible 'bearish wedge' too.
 

As for other indices, the Dow Jones Index reversed from channel resistance in what is a good shorting opportunity. Risk is measured on a break above 24,650 with a target of the lower channel.
 


For Monday, look for a break of Friday's lows. A weak open will present a shorting opportunity which could last a few days – if not a few weeks. Decisive moves above 20-day/50-day MAs on volume will negate the short play.





Will it hold?

 

Will it hold?

Courtesy of 

The current liberal fantasy: Special Counsel Robert Mueller will present a series of reports to Congress about the activities of the Trump campaign during and after the election along with some indictments, including one for the President for obstruction of justice. Congress will then begin impeachment proceedings and remove the President from office, ushering in the Pence administration, followed in short order by a Blue Wave in the 2018 midterms that renders Mr. Pence impotent (legislatively speaking).

Okay. Maybe.

Or…and I’m just thinking out loud here…we have another Saturday Night Massacre, wherein Rosenstein and Wray are removed from office, the new appointee at the top of the Justice Department ends the investigation with the stroke of a pen and everyone freaks out for a week, followed by some other distraction, like a surprise Kardashian pregnancy or another Hollywood star being outed as a abuser of women. Then we all gear up for the new NFL season and President Trump cruises into a third chaotic year in office.

Which one of these outcomes is better for the mental health of the investor class? Maybe neither. Maybe the Constitutional Crisis brinksmanship pushes us through the floor established this past winter at around 2550 and then permanently puts risk appetites on a downward slope for the cycle.

I don’t think a rational person could believe they possibly know which of these things will happen but I do think it’s rational to say neither is good for sentiment.

Is it too hopeful to expect a third attempt on the support level in this market to resolve in a bounce? Is it more reasonable to believe that a third attempt will be the straw that breaks the camel’s back and takes us out of a trendless consolidation and firmly into a downtrend?

As you can see in the chart above, we’re down from the highs. In the bottom pane you’re looking at the percentage of S&P 500 stocks that are currently above the 200-day moving average – 56% of them are, meaning more than half of the market’s stocks are still in an…
continue reading





Range Trading Continues

Courtesy of Declan

Tuesday saw some upside from Monday's recovery but the trading ranges I marked on the charts over the weekend remain valid so no change in the status quo.

The S&P shows this best with the trading range defined by the former 'bull flag'. Today's close left the index just below resistance. The lower close could suggest another run back to 2,590s.
 


The Nasdaq is also knocking on the door of resistance. Today's high at 7,128 tagged this resistance level which is also close to 20-day and 50-day MAs.  There isn't much room for upside without generating a breakout – a breakout which would nicely set up a move back to 7,500. However, the least path of resistance is down but it will take more than a day's selling to break the trading range.
 


The Russell 2000 is also up against mini-resistance. I have redrawn a Consolidation triangle which looks a good upside target for the April mini-rally. There is a MACD trigger 'buy' which should help those using technical triggers.
 

Not much more to add. Tomorrow may offer more guidance.





 
 
 

Phil's Favorites

Pompeo confirmation makes Mideast war more likely

 

Pompeo confirmation makes Mideast war more likely

Courtesy of Gregory Aftandilian, Boston University

The United States Senate has confirmed CIA director Mike Pompeo, the hawkish former Kansas congressman, as secretary of state. He replaces Rex Tillerson, who was fired via Twitter on March 13.

As a former Middle East analyst at the State Department, I believe that having Pompeo as America’s top diplomat will endanger the Iran nuclear deal.

In 2015, when ...



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Zero Hedge

Black-White Homeownership-Rate-Gap Has Widened Since 1900

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Skylar Olsen via Zillow.com,

  • In 1900, the gap in the homeownership rate between black and white households was 27.6 percentage points. It’s now 30.3 percentage points.

  • It’s the widest gap among whites, blacks, Hispanics and Asians – although the difference between white and Hispanic homeownership rates has more than tripled.

  • Asians have seen the largest gains, although their homeownership rate still lags whites....



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Chart School

The Power of Simple Moving Averages - Hurst Cycles, Part 4

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Cycles in the market exists. Cycle price waves repeat with a regular frequency just like ocean waves. The more visible the Hurst cycles and price waves the more likely the composite man is playing a role.

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The Weekly report from our Cycle Finder Spectrum, notice the high Win:Loss points score near cycle 148/149.

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Insider Scoop

LeMaitre Vascular's Lack Of Near-Term Catalysts Pushes Stifel To The Sidelines

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related LMAT Mid-Afternoon Market Update: Dow Rises 250 Points; Chipotle Shares Spike Higher 40 Stocks Moving In Thursday's Mid-Day Session LeMaitre Vascular, Inc. 2018 Q1 - Results - Earnings Call Slides ...

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Digital Currencies

Crypto Billionaire Sued By VC Giant Sequoia Over Collapsed Funding Deal

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

By Marie Huillet, CoinTelegraph.com

Venture capital firm Sequoia is suing Zhao Changpeng, the CEO and founder of Binance, currently the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange by trade volume, for allege...



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Biotech

Why marijuana fans should not see approval for epilepsy drug as a win for weed

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Why marijuana fans should not see approval for epilepsy drug as a win for weed

Small vials of CBD, which some believe could be a cure for many ailments. Roxana Gonzalez/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Timothy Welty, Drake University

A Food and Drug Administration panel recommended approval of a drug made of cannabidiol on Ap...



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ValueWalk

Buffett At His Best

By csinvesting. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Bear with me as I share a bit of my history that helped me create SkyVu and the Battle Bears games. The University of Nebraska gave me my first job after college. I mostly pushed TV carts around, edited videos for professors or the occasional speaker event. One day, Warren Buffet came to campus to speak to the College of Business. I didn’t think much of this speech at the time but I saved it for some reason. 15 years later, as a founder of my own company, I watch and listen to this particular speech every year to remind myself of the fundamentals and values Mr. Buffett looks for. He’s addressing business students at his alma mater, so I think his style here is a bit more ‘close to home’ than in his other speeches. Hopefully many of you find great value in this video like I have. Sorry for the VHS...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

The Stock Bull Market Stops Here!

 

The Stock Bull Market Stops Here!

Courtesy of Kimble Charting

 

The definition of a bull market or bull trends widely vary. One of the more common criteria for bull markets is determined by the asset being above or below its 200 day moving average.

In my humble opinion, each index above remains in a bull trend, as triple support (200-day moving averages, 2-year rising support lines, and February lows) are still in play ...



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Members' Corner

Cambridge Analytica and the 2016 Election: What you need to know (updated)

 

"If you want to fundamentally reshape society, you first have to break it." ~ Christopher Wylie

[Interview: Cambridge Analytica whistleblower: 'We spent $1m harvesting millions of Facebook profiles' – video]

"You’ve probably heard by now that Cambridge Analytica, which is backed by the borderline-psychotic Mercer family and was formerly chaired by Steve Bannon, had a decisive role in manipulating voters on a one-by-one basis – using their own personal data to push them toward voting ...



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Mapping The Market

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

Via Jean-Luc

How propagandist beat science – they did it for the tobacco industry and now it's in favor of the energy companies:

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

The original tobacco strategy involved several lines of attack. One of these was to fund research that supported the industry and then publish only the results that fit the required narrative. “For instance, in 1954 the TIRC distributed a pamphlet entitled ‘A Scientific Perspective on the Cigarette Controversy’ to nearly 200,000 doctors, journalists, and policy-makers, in which they emphasized favorable research and questioned results supporting the contrary view,” say Weatherall and co, who call this approach biased production.

A second approach promoted independent research that happened to support ...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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