Archive for the ‘Chart School’ Category

Tech Indices Ignore Semiconductor Weakness to Breakout

Courtesy of Declan.

Tech Indices are not waiting on the Semiconductor Index aa both the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 closed at new all-time highs. The Nasdaq 100 had the best response with a clear breakout. This move accelerated the relative advance against the Russell 2000 setting things up nicely for a challenge of upper channel resistance.






The Nasdaq also enjoyed an uptick against the S&P as it inched a new high. Volume climbed to register accumulation. Technicals are all net bullish.





The S&P also generated a breakout which was enough to negate the ‘bull trap’. Relative performance continued its recovery after four months of decline. As with Tech indices, the upside target is channel resistance.





The index with work to do is the Russell 2000. It was able to make some ground but not to the same degree as Tech and Large Cap indices. The double top remains in play and with relative performance moving sharply lower, Small Caps could struggle to attract buyers.





For tomorrow, bulls are back in the driving seat after yesterday’s whipsaw short trades in Tech indices. With relative performance moving away from Small Caps to Tech and potentially Large Cap indices new trading opportunities are starting to emerge.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.




I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









Markets Stumble As June Highs Challenged

Courtesy of Declan.

It was by no means a disaster but there was an ominous feel to Wednesday’s close. Bulls had used the momentum built by last week’s gains to make a run at all-time highs but profit takers and shorts used this as an opportunity to get out/build a position. It’s a typical stage I reaction to a resistance test but now it’s a question if there is enough sideline interest from bulls to drive a break to new all-time highs and force today’s shorts to cover.




The S&P left a small ‘bull trap’ on low volume. Technicals are net bullish so if bulls can come back and reverse the ‘bull trap’ it would nicely set up a run to test newly drawn channel resistance. But for now, shorts look favoured.






The Semiconductor Index had thrown an unexpected surge yesterday but bears were having none of it and the index dropped below key support.  Technicals are mixed and the 200-day MA is again the support level but to survive three tests in four months looks unlikely.





Tech indices are still holding their breakouts but weakness in the Semiconductor Index won’t help. The Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 are both net bullish and have plenty of support even if the Semiconductor Index does not.







Finally, the Russell 2000 took the second day of losses after a picture-perfect reversal at resistance. Don’t be surprised if this morphs into a trading range using 1,610 support. 





For tomorrow, it’s about bulls sticking close to resistance and mounting a return challenge to make new all-time highs. If there is a fresh day of losses it will be about looking at support of 50, 200-day MAs and/or horizontal support marked by Spring swing highs for non-Large Cap indices. 




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.




I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

rtt-browsing-latestPlease review a collection of WWW browsing results.

Date Found: Saturday, 24 February 2018, 04:53:02 PM

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Comment: KWN: Extremely Rare Occurrence In The Silver Market…pressure, pressure,…pop!

Date Found: Saturday, 24 February 2018, 07:54:46 PM

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Comment: KWN .. like 1987 they say!

Date Found: Saturday, 24 February 2018, 09:03:01 PM

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Comment: US’s projected twin deficits will be the largest outside of a recession, JPM says.RTT: What could go wrong when the music stops!

Date Found: Sunday, 25 February 2018, 02:56:53 PM

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Comment: Stockman: Do we think that $4.2 trillion of extra central bank credit has changed everything?

Date Found: Sunday, 25 February 2018, 02:58:00 PM

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Comment: Stockman: The singular chart that should scare the bejesus out of casino gamblers who remain drunk on the trading charts embedded in robo-machines and the fancy bespoke trades peddled by Wall Street brokers. FED balance sheet starts to shrink!

Date Found: Sunday, 25 February 2018, 05:11:14 PM

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Comment: RMR: Special Guest: Jim Willie – Gold Oil Ratio (02/25/2018). The solution is a higher oil and gold price (higher interest rates will follow) youtu.be/4f4gObWkEjg

Date Found: Monday, 26 February 2018, 06:49:25 PM

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Comment: Michael Pento Talks to Legendary Investor Jim Rogers youtu.be/2d9vJzqZM0Y

Date Found: Tuesday, 27 February 2018, 08:56:06 PM

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Comment: Who created Bitcoin? youtu.be/UkVxhND2Eiw

Date Found: Wednesday, 28 February 2018, 12:28:27 PM

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Comment: RTT: Do fundamentals matter anymore? If so gold going to…
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Weekly Market Recap Jul 08, 2018

Courtesy of Blain.

Currently the action for short term traders is choppy and tricky.  Those with a long term view still are in cruise control as they have been for years.   The holiday shortened week saw most of the action Monday as a “gap down” was met with buying,  a nice rally Thursday, and then the employment data Friday gave the market something to think about other than TRADE WARS!!(tm) [which ironically began in earnest that day].  As a note, the NYSE McClellan Oscillator went positive late in the week.

Friday the Trump administration officially imposed tariffs on $34 billion of Chinese imports at midnight Eastern Time, and Beijing implemented tariffs on the same value in U.S. goods, as promised.

In other “fun” Axios reported early in the week that the Trump administration had crafted a draft bill that would declare America’s abandonment of World Trade Organization rules. This would essentially give Trump a license to raise tariffs at will, without congressional consent and largely outside of the international rules governed by the WTO.

Fed policy makers saw negative risks from U.S. trade policy, saying it “had intensified,” indicating that a tit-for-tat tariff clash could have negative effects on business sentiment and investment spending, according to the minutes of the June 12-13 Federal Open Market Committee released Thursday.

For the week the S&P 500 gained 1.5% and the NASDAQ 2.4%.

On Monday, it was reported the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index rose to 60.2 in June from 58.7 – that’s a very strong reading (anything over 50 signals expansion and 60+ is rare).  A read on construction spending rose 0.4% in May.  Thursday, the ISM nonmanufacturing index forJune came in at 59.1 from the previous month’s reading of 58.6; again very strong.

“The increase in the ISM manufacturing index in June is a clear sign that, for now at least, the strength of the domestic economy is more than offsetting


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Friday’s Gains Deliver Breakout

Courtesy of Declan.

The past couple of weeks have been a period of give-and-take but Friday broke the mold by marking a second day of gains for many of the indices (four for the Russell 2000). More importantly, it took markets above resistance and into a position where they can mount a challenge of June highs.






The Russell 2000 had the best of the week’s action. After a successful test of the 200-day MA the index went on a four-day run of gains. Small Caps have been exhibiting quiet strength. If it can make a break above 1,710 it will mark a new all-time high for the index and return its role as market leader.





The Nasdaq pushed into its ‘bull trap’ with 7,806 the last barrier to new all-time highs.





What may be more problematic is the Semiconductor Index. It enjoyed the strong gains of other indices but now finds itself up against former rising support now resistance which is also a convergence with the 50-day MA.  Shorts may find play here but will need to be on their toes if the market rallies after the first half-hour of trading as this would suggest underlying strength; the June breakdown gap will act like a vacuum and ‘suck’ prices higher.





There is not a whole lot going on with the longer term charts. The one I’m watching is the relationship between the Dow Jones and the Dow Transports Index. Transports are an important economic indicator and despite gains, have underperformed against the Dow Jones Index; an underperformance which goes back to 2015. The relationship has improved but stronger gains are needed if the March-June rallies are not some extended flash in the pan.





For Monday, it will be important the mini-breakouts hang-on and survive the next wave of selling – likely to occur early Monday. If they can retain the breakouts by Monday’s close it will begin to attract doubters and build the confidence of existing long holders.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.




I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









Yamana Gold Inc Chart Review

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

yamana-gold-inc-chart-reviewThe chart of this gold stock has clear foot prints and is one to watch!



More from RTT Tv










The gold market it tight, and the bullion banks are worried, if unsure listen to this.











Sure fundamentals do matter, and so does market timing (entry, stops and exit), here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination of Gann Angles, Cycles and Wyckoff Logic is the best way to secure better timing than most, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years. With our website you can chart any security in the world.



NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net



Investing Quote…



..”Tape reading was an important part of the game; so was beginning at the right time; so was sticking to your position. But my greatest discovery was that a man must study general conditions, to size them so as to be able to anticipate probabilities.”…



Jesse Livermore





..”Markets are designed to allow individuals to look after their private needs and to pursue profit. It’s really a great invention and I wouldn’t under-estimate the value of that, but they’re not designed to take care of social needs”..



George Soros







..“It’s not what you own that will send you bust but what you owe.”..



Anon





..“Don’t try to buy at the bottom and sell at the top. It can’t be done except by liars.”..



Bernard Baruch





..”The key to making money in stocks is not to get scared out of them”



Peter Lynch











Trading Ranges Dominant

Courtesy of Declan.

Tuesday delivered another shift with sellers coming back, although not to the same extent as Monday’s buying. The net result was to leave trading ranges in key markets. Until there is a break we won’t know where the nest move will come but it will keep people on the sidelines until there is a resolution.






The Nasdaq is still holding its breakout support (and 50-day MA). Volume has dropped into the July 4th holiday but no directional move yet.





The Russell 2000 managed to run counter to other indices with a small gain.  The 50-day MA is still support and more importantly is above prior price congestion. Unlike Tech and Large Caps, this is shaping up as a swing low and is giving longs a trading opportunity.





For tomorrow, trends have to be established. The Russell 2000 is the one closest to doing so. Any existing trades – long or short – can be held until price action forces them out.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.




I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









What Have You Done For Me Lately?

 

What Have You Done For Me Lately?

Courtesy of 

The S&P 500 has gone 108 days without closing at an all-time high. This is the second longest drought since the index first made new highs in March, 2013.

The chart below shows the days without an all-time closing high (red), the S&P 500 return (black), and new all-time closing highs (green).

On March 28, 2013, the day the S&P 500 finally made an all-time high, The Wall Street Journal described the debate that dominated financial markets:

“On one side, Italy’s difficulty in forming a new government stoked fears that Europe still hasn’t dealt with its financial problems, despite the reopening of Cyprus’s banks. In addition, new U.S. weekly unemployment claims surprised economists by ticking higher while another report showed soft manufacturing activity in the Midwest.”

The article also included some serious bear porn.

“Ordinary investors began pushing money back into U.S. stock mutual funds in January and February. Many had sold during the crisis and some appeared to regain confidence as indexes neared records, meaning some had sold low and bought high.”

Aside from the anecdote that “ordinary investors” were returning, which always gets more attention than it deserves, there were plenty of legitimate reasons to be skeptical that the rally would continue. The S&P 500 had compounded at 25.6% for the previous four years, and with a CAPE ratio of 23, they were no longer a bargain. On top of that, the economy wasn’t doing great. Jobless claims were 357k, unemployment was 7.5%,  and the most recent GDP report showed an annual increase of just 0.4%. And of course, one can’t forget that all of the gains in the market was due to quantitative easing, which many feared was blowing another bubble into assets.

It was perfectly reasonable to suspect that stocks had run too far too fast, or that the money, easy or otherwise had already been made.

But in the five plus years since March 2013 the index (TR) has compounded at 13.2% per year. Remember, this is after gaining 26% per year over the previous four years (148% total). So it’s really okay if we go another 100 or…
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Monday was to Friday as Friday was to Thursday

Courtesy of Declan.

In yet another turnaround for markets, today started with a large gap down which had the makings of a sizable bearish sell-off – only for bulls to start buying from the open and to continue to do so throughout the day.  Better still, today’s surge undid much of the damage done Friday.

For the S&P, the action over the last six days has much in common with the scrappy action around the 200-day MA in March/April. The only thing I don’t like about this action is the frequency of the tests of the 200-day MA; the more frequent the tests the greater the chance for a break. A move above the 20-day MA should be enough to confirm a new swing low and deliver a challenge on resistance of the June swing high; riskreward measured on a loss of 2,690.  There was even an uptick in relative strength against the Russell 2000.

The Nasdaq had a more natural defense level of the 50-day MA and a horizontal support level. Support at 7,420 is stronger than the corresponding support in the S&P.  There was also a relative performance uptick against the S&P; again – further confirmation of its net strength against its peers.

The Russell 2000 also posted a good day with buyers confirming 1,630 as a swing low. Relative performance has struggled against the Nasdaq and now looks to be struggling against the S&P.  While the index has the most attractive – current – swing-low ‘buy’ play, it may be entering a phase when this advantage starts to unwind.

As for other indices, the Dow Jones Index is at channel support but relative performance remains weak. Buyers can use the swing low at 24,000 for risk:reward with a target of channel resistance.

The Semiconductor Index has the riskiest swing low ‘buy’ play with it trading at its last point of defense, the 200-day MA. Technicals are all net bearish and relative performance is very weak. Not for the faint of heart.


continue reading





Supply Issues Emerge As Bounce Stalls

Courtesy of Declan.

Friday’s action didn’t bring about the bounce I would have liked after Thursday’s picture-perfect defenses of lead moving averages or support.




The S&P closed with a bearish black candlestick on a spike high above the 50-day MA. Volume climbed in accumulation as On-Balance-Volume triggered a ‘buy’ signal. I would see this as a bearish close and would look for downside Monday; potentially playing for a test of the 200-day MA






The Nasdaq also left a bearish black candlestick after it bounced off its 50-day MA. There wasn’t a spike high so it’s not as bearish as the S&P but black candlesticks are nearly always followed by lower closes the next day.





It was the same story for the Nasdaq 100; look for a fresh test of channel support.





The Semiconductor Index is also showing a black candlestick. It occurred below rising support (now resistance) following a second test of the 200-day MA. Monday is a big day for the index. Should the 200-day MA fail to hold as support, then aside from the April swing low, there isn’t a whole lot to hang on too. This will be bad news for the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 (and possibly Small and Large Caps too); it’s a key watch index for the coming weeks.





The Russell 2000 finished with a gravestone doji with the 50-day MA its most recent test.  Relative performance finished with a switch lower  – although this relationship has effectively flat-lined since mid-April. It still has support to work with but wannabe buyers will probably want to see what happens in the Semiconductor Index before jumping in.





For tomorrow, watch the Semiconductor Index, it’s looking like a bellwether for the other indices. Friday’s finish suggests Monday will be a down day.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.




I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









 
 
 

Phil's Favorites

What Hollywood gets right and wrong about hacking

 

What Hollywood gets right and wrong about hacking

Gone phishin’. www.shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Catherine Flick, De Montfort University

Spoiler warnings for Mr. Robot, Arrow and Blackhat

Technology is everywhere we look, so it’s no surprise that the films and TV we enjoy are similarly obsessed. That’s not to say they manage to get it right when it comes to portraying tech accurately however – and one of their worst areas is computer hacking.

I’ve...



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Zero Hedge

Goldilocks On The Rocks: Why Next Week's GDP Will Be "The Last Best Print"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Andrew Sheets, Morgan Stanley Chief Cross-Asset Strategist

Next week the US Department of Commerce reports its advance estimate of 2Q GDP. It’s likely to be a whopper. Our US economics team expects it to register at +4.7%, and given the unusually large number of moving parts at work this quarter, a 5-handle is possible. A few days later, the June reading of US PCE could show a slight downtick in core inflation. Robust growt...



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Chart School

Gann Angles on Dow and Gold

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Gann Angles measure price moves relative to time.

The Dow is moving up the red Gann 1x1 line, so far the recent trend challenge has been over come. As price is near upper green dotted channel Gann angle from Oct 2007 price is now over bought. We can also see the very obvious Elliot 5 wave count from March 2009 lows, and a new Dow high would complete the 5 waves up.

The red line indicator below the Dow price chart is readtheticker.com RTT Flow Index.


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Gold (GLD) could not get over $130, so a reaction back to minor support at $115 was to be expected.  Support should be found here, an...

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Members' Corner

There Are 3 Main Theories That Explain Trump's Approach to Putin and Russia-Which One Makes the Most Sense?

Theory Time - What do you think?

Thom Hartmann suggests that the "Manchurian Candidate theory" is the least likely explanation for Trump's pro-Russia behavior in "There Are 3 Main Theories That Explain Trump’s Approach to Putin and Russia—Which One Makes the Most Sense?" (below).  disagrees and suggests that Putin probably has "the goods" on Trump in "Trump’s Plot Against America". (To be fair, Hartmann acknowledges that his three theories are not mutually exclusive.) Jonathan Chait argues ...



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Insider Scoop

BofA Points To Yum China's Earnings Downside Risk In Downgrade

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related 31 Stocks Moving In Friday's Mid-Day Session Benzinga's Top Upgrades, Downgrades For July 20, 2018 ...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Digital Currencies

Citadel CEO Says Bitcoin Still A "Head Scratcher" But Billionaire Lasry Sees $40,000 Soon

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Ken Griffin, the CEO and founder of the Citadel hedge fund, has reiterated his negative stance on Bitcoin (BTC) in an interview with CNBC this morning.

Speaking at the Delivering Alpha Conference in New York, ...



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Biotech

How summer and diet damage your DNA, and what you can do

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

How summer and diet damage your DNA, and what you can do

Bright sun and fatty foods are a bad recipe for your DNA. By Tish1/shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Adam Barsouk, University of Pittsburgh

Today, your body will accumulate quadrillions of new injuries in your DNA. The constant onslaught of many forms of damage, some of which permanently...



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Mapping The Market

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

Via Jean-Luc:

Famed investor reflecting on his mistakes:

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

One that stands out for me:

Instead of focusing on how value factors in general did in identifying attractive stocks, I rushed to proclaim price-to-sales the winner. That was, until it wasn’t. I guess there’s a reason for the proclamation “The king is dead, long live the king” when a monarchy changes hands. As we continued to update the book, price-to-sales was no longer the “best” single value factor, replaced by others, depending upon the time frames examined. I had also become a lot more sophisticated in my analysis—thanks to criticism of my earlier work—and realized that everything, including factors, moves in and out of favor, depending upon the market environment. I also realized...



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ValueWalk

Buffett At His Best

By csinvesting. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Bear with me as I share a bit of my history that helped me create SkyVu and the Battle Bears games. The University of Nebraska gave me my first job after college. I mostly pushed TV carts around, edited videos for professors or the occasional speaker event. One day, Warren Buffet came to campus to speak to the College of Business. I didn’t think much of this speech at the time but I saved it for some reason. 15 years later, as a founder of my own company, I watch and listen to this particular speech every year to remind myself of the fundamentals and values Mr. Buffett looks for. He’s addressing business students at his alma mater, so I think his style here is a bit more ‘close to home’ than in his other speeches. Hopefully many of you find great value in this video like I have. Sorry for the VHS...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

The Stock Bull Market Stops Here!

 

The Stock Bull Market Stops Here!

Courtesy of Kimble Charting

 

The definition of a bull market or bull trends widely vary. One of the more common criteria for bull markets is determined by the asset being above or below its 200 day moving average.

In my humble opinion, each index above remains in a bull trend, as triple support (200-day moving averages, 2-year rising support lines, and February lows) are still in play ...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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