I love it when a trade really comes together. After 4 DD's and a roll, I cashed out 16 times my initial position in TLT today for a 140% gain. Thank you Phil for the lessons in scaling in, and paying for position.
2Can
Thanks super helpful re: UGN example…..other inflation/market-correction-defensive-related play you threw out that has jammed UP in less than a month is TITN 6/14 $15 puts, up 40%. Excuse my enthusiasm but haven't had those types of gains in multiple plays in years let alone days doing it on my own…….maybe I should host the PSW infomercial!!!!
stevegeb200
Phil is a master at keeping you laughing, as well as making you money. - It is like " laughing all the way to the bank!"
Gel1
Phil, you are the man. My positions in ABX and CLF are up massively this year, and doing very nicely with USO and UNG. TSR is another winner. Just waiting for the TSLA short now!
Rookie IRA Investor
Its been a "perfect" month. Every stock I wrote calls against looks like it will be called away next week, every put I wrote will expire worthless. Thanks Phil, now I need some new buy/write candidates, or the new 100K portfolio….
Barfinger
Way back did 20 of your suggested short BP Jan 11 26 P @ 4.3 now .85 — sold half. this am —
paid for a years sub AGain!! thank you very much!
Ban2
Every time I read Mr. Davis' market analyses and reports about his super profitable trades I feel admiration mixed with envy for the overall brilliance of this man, intellectual and verbal, his extraordinary savvy in the exotic art of options and, last not least, his moral passion with which he writes, even if in passing, about the darker aspects of capitalism.
RussianBear
Phil,
3 for 3! Sold on initial excitement and made a double on USO, 70% on AMZN and 70% on SPY options from Friday.
Thanks and much appreciated for the suggestions.
Gingbaum
Phil - I know I am small change compared to most others members, but I just wanted to let you know that during the last two weeks with the shorts you and others suggested I have 6 winners and 5 losers. My losers were small because I tried to follow your guidelines as best I could. On the other hand my winners on average were around 50%. Consequently, I am up $2000 in 14 days. Thank you for your patience and help. I think I am making progress getting rid of some of my poor trading habits of the past!
DCalrk41
1,000% on SKF - It was a freakin' monster into the center field bleachers! I saw it play out live and squawked it from the StockTwits ID which 14k people follow: Home run trade of the week @philstockworld just knocked cover off ball w $SKF puts. http://bit.ly/piBL Great trade bud!
Phil Pearlman - StockTwits
Phil, I have to hand it to you. It seemed that you were the only person on the planet that thought stocks falling was still possible. I am glad I listened. About the end of the year I was really beginning to second guess though. Thanks for suggesting taking some profits last Nov. It no longer looks like I missed much.
rj_jarboe
Your discussion during your web seminar on SPX and SDS today was great. It really let me see how you look at the numbers and use the 5% rule to see where inflection points occur and what the bands look like. This was incredibly helpful. I actually sold out of my small short position at a good profit ( which was more a bet on a short term fluctuation rather than a hedge after listening to you) and will look more deeply at my portfolio and how to hedge it. In addition your view on hedging was also very helpful looking at the leverage you can get w/ a small spread, and protect portfolio against a big move against me. Thank you for your sharing this. Very helpful.
Batman
Nice intraday trading calls this week Phil. You have me hooked on trading SPY options analogously to your DIA moves. I paid some tuition the last few weeks but I think I have the hang of it. Don't be greedy and be happy with 0.05 to 0.10 and sometimes you're lucky with much bigger moves. Thanks for the training!
TmDecay
Sold out my AAPL mar95 calls. Up over 100% today on them!
Singapore Steve
I am an investor, not a trader. The information at Phil's World is top-notch and always relevant. It is great to see your website thriving.
Prof
Phil, I'm up 34x what I paid in fees for your service, and that only counts the trades I didn't think of myself. Thanks!
Barfinger
I'd like to wish Phil and everyone else that contributes to this board a very Merry Christmas and happy New Year. The wealth of knowledge on here is incredible, and it has greatly contributed to my understanding of markets, politics, and the world in general. This year was when Phil's teachings all seemed to click in place, and my portfolio's performance shot up, and for that I am very grateful. Thank you!
Palotay
I enjoy your informative materials, Phil... as it is obviously beneficial to so many "styles" of trading the markets... long term, swing or day trading the market moves.
As a longer term trader, I really like you long term calls, as I for one recognize the difficulty of calling these, because the further out you go in time, projecting price movement becomes more difficult.
I have to congratulate you for your accuracy... You called the March 2009 market upward reversal almost to the day, and the AAPL reversal to THE day. Only one who has been a student of the economy and the markets over a period of time could have done this, and so many other accurate calls. I'm sure it was difficult and consistent work, but it did pay off... thanks from one who benefited big time !
1234Gel
Phil/Eric/Cwan/Matt/Cap/etc.. - I've learned so much from all of you and want to thank you. I'm up 23% this month thanks to all of your advice - Thanks, guys!
Josiah
Thanks for the USO directions today. Made it 3 times (up/down/up) for a very nice win.
Doro165
Very nice in and out on those USO puts again, easy way to get the subscription covered in just a couple of hours.
Thanks again Phil and everyone here contributing to such intelligent and informative discussion! I have wasted countless hours reading "professional newsletters" and message board blather over the years. Have learned a great deal here in a very short time. I have sent out a number of invites to friends and family for stockworld!
Eyezz
I doubled down on our USO June $35 puts on Tuesday afternoon and listened to your posting yesterday and sold 1/2 midday and the rest I sold (luckily) at the top of the market yesterday with the last 1/4 of my contracts at 100% return in less than one day!
Samlawyer
Aapl/Phil
Thanks for your advice, always appreciated.
So, not so much a tax issue, but more to protect against a 5% or greater drop.
Here is what I did before their earnings…sold 25% of my stock at 147.50
Against the rest, I sold the June $140 calls for $8.25, protecting down to $140 if needed.
And just for fun, I bought the weekly $145 puts for $1.50( small price to pay if they bombed on earnings)
So, overall, I am happy with the insurance I was able to 'generate' for 1% of the price of stock.
Now, depending on what happens, I have the luxury of deciding and being in the driver's seat with respect to whether to sell and buy your spreads or not.
Having done all that meandering, I must say it was fun!
More important, I could not have done something like that 2 or 3 years ago and reading and thinking about your teachings has been a tremendous asset.
Thanks!
Maya1
Phil – In the event of a mkt meltdown, which of the indices, in your opinion do you think has the most potential for % move down. I'm looking at call options on SDS and the DXD. Any thoughts? Ideas?
Thanks .. and thanks for being a great teacher! I've learned so much in only a month!
Louis631
Phil/CL-that play made a quick $500 per contract! Took all of 10 minutes! I want to thank you for helping me not just learn a bit about trading, but giving me some confidence and most of all a rewarding "hobby" to look forward to each day. I have had a few mistakes and losses along the way, but I have had some great wins too and I am now consistently making money trading futures and have even learned to go to sleep while holding a losing position knowing that tomorrow is always another opportunity to win again. So thanks again for your help and patience along the way.
Craigsa620
Thanks Phil, I have adjusted my position by getting rid of the IYF puts, and selling the FAZ puts. You have so many of these awesome little tricks in your playbook that it really amazes me. I toally love your analogy by the way: Do you want insurance that you have to pay for, or do you want insurance that pays you?
Craigzooka
Why were the analysts wrong?
If I were a Japanese investor who purchased US stocks prior to November at Y80 yen to the dollar, with the US market up an average of 15% or more and upon selling the asset I covert dollars to Yen, also realizing an additional 25% gain (one dollar now converts to 100+ Yen rather than the 80 I used at time of purchase), I think I would be unloading US assets also.
But analysts never do the math in their articles nor very rarely bring up or discuss the ramifications of currency fluctuations. I don't include Phil in this group as this is a valuable lesson I am learning from him.
Denlundy
Hey Phil,
You called all the trends and market movements with perfection this week. I enjoyed it! Thanks for keeping us sane!
GClay
Phil- I am a former portfolio manager and now retired. I have been following you for about six months and I now know why you have so many followers you are very insightful and knowledgeable.
Mkozberg
Thanks, Phil. I really appreciate your sentiment and commitment! Just want to thank you for what you do for all of us.
My pal JC Parets has taught me a lot about technical analysis over the years and I always read his stuff when it comes out. You can get his email blasts too by signing up at AllStarCharts.com.
Anyway, here’s his read of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, with a monthly zoom-out…
Let’s start with Papa Dow. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has gone nowhere for 20 months. Flat for over a year and a half:
Whenever in doubt zoom out. Here is a much longer-term view to really help put things in perspective. All things considered, this 20 month consolidation is perfectly symmetrical with the prior 20 years. What happens if we clear 27000 and hold it? It looks like a lot of upside to me. All of this is consistent with this correction since January 2018 being a cyclical bear market within a longer-term structural bull market. In other words, a shorter-term correction within a longer-term uptrend. That seems perfectly fair…If we’re above 27000, stubborn bears are going to be in a lot of trouble.
Investors that are Bullish Silver or Gold want to see the Silver/Gold ratio heading higher and breaking above key resistance levels.
Early this month they are receiving a long-awaited bullish message!
The Silver/Gold ratio has created a series of lower highs and lower lows since its peak, 8-years ago this month.
The decline in the ratio took it down to test its 1992 lows at (1), which was a very important support test. After hitting this support level, the ratio has turned higher.
Last month the ratio closed a small percent above the falling resistance at (2). Early this month the ratio continues to break further above falling resistance at (2), which historically sends a bullish message to both Silver and Gold.
If you are interested in pattern analysis on Gold, Silver, Miners, and Copper, you will find our weekly metals reports of benefit. Click Here to see sign up details.
To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.
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Date Found: Monday, 25 March 2019, 02:25:19 AM
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Comment:
Greyerz – The Most Important Chart Of This Century And What Will Take The World By Surprise | King World News
Date Found: Monday, 25 March 2019, 02:41:58 AM
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Comment:
“New” World Order Criminal Bankers Caused the American Revolution : bankers are pirates youtu.be/eqmMlWbKwIA
Date Found: Tuesday, 26 March 2019, 11:06:18 PM
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Comment:
It isn’t foreign buyers who are funding US gov deficit right now, it is domestic investors. Foreign buyers haven’t been big source of demand for Treasury since 2015. Deutsche Bank
Date Found: Thursday, 28 March 2019, 01:47:28 AM
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Comment:
If you can not sell stuff, stocks build up, its a slow down folks
Date Found: Thursday, 28 March 2019, 05:05:51 PM
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Comment:
Its a long wait! But its coming!
Date Found: Thursday, 28 March 2019, 10:31:25 PM
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Comment:
John P. Hussman on Twitter: “As a standalone indicator, I’ve never viewed the yield curve as particularly timely or dependable, but in a hypervalued market that’s rolling over near record highs, you may want to pay attention. In those conditions, investors have far less time than they imagine.… t.co/asIBo4xKB8″;
Date Found: Tuesday, 02 April 2019, 03:23:32 AM
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Chart in video showing expected consolidations after a basing period.
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Fundamentals are important, and so is market timing, here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination
of Gann Angles, Cycles, Wyckoff and Ney logic
is the best way to secure better timing than most, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years. To help you applying Richard Wyckoff and Richard Ney logic
a wealth of knowledge is available via our RTT Plus membership.
NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net
Investing Quote…
…“I believe that anyone who is intelligent, conscientious, and willing to put in the necessary time can be successful on Wall Street. As long as they realize the market is a business like any other business, they have a good chance to prosper.”…
Jesse Livermore
..“Don’t try to buy at the bottom and sell at the top. It can’t be done except by liars.”..
Bernard Baruch
..”Money can’t buy you happiness but it does bring you a more pleasant form of misery”..
Spike Milligan
..”The first rule is not to lose. The second rule is not to forget the first rule”
Warren Buffett
..“Investing should be like watching paint dry or watching grass grow. If you want excitement…go to Las Vegas.”…
As we close out the week and watched the markets trade in a rotational price manner, it became very clear to us that the patterns setting up in price continue to support our overall analysis of the markets and the potential for a bigger downside price move. We issued a call that an August 19th breakdown was expected on or near the trigger date (Aug 19). We’ve taken some heat from our followers and readers regarding this call and the fact that the markets have yet to really breakdown below current support levels.
As we’ve learned from our experience and previous analysis/calls – the markets can continue to act in ways that run counter to our analysis for much longer and in a much more irrational manner than we can survive the risks associated with any irrational price moves. Yet, at this point, we don’t see anything irrational in the markets – we see opportunity.
The Doji Star and Shooting Star Japanese Candlestick patterns are part of a unique group that identifies potential price reversals, support/resistance and can often build into other types of patterns. Our belief is these setups in the current chart will eventually create an Evening Star formation with a downside price move early next week. This type of pattern would confirm resistance near the body of the current Doji or Shooting Star candlestick and also confirm our analysis that a price breakdown should continue.
SP500 – ES Daily Chart Highlights the Doji Reversal Pattern
This ES Daily chart highlights the Doji pattern created by the close of Friday trading near 2923.75. The fact that price narrowed on Friday into a Doji pattern forming below the previous highs suggests general weakness in price and a possibility that early next week we may see price breakdown to complete a Harami or Doji Star Reversal Pattern.
In the past 5-weeks, 10-Year Yields have declined 26%, 5-year yields are down 24% and 2-year yields are down 17%. Is there more of a decline in yields to come?
How would stocks react if yields rally off support? Could bank start reflecting relative strength if yields rally here?
This chart reflects that the swift declines of late have 2, 5 & 10-year yields testing 7-year support at each (1).
As yields are testing long-term support the Bank Index (BKX) is doing the same thing (lower right chart).
Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am; Stocks in the states and around the world are hopeful that yields and banks rally off these long-term support levels.
To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.
Gold/Metals bulls want to pay attention to how this indicator handles a current breakout test!
This chart looks at the Gold/Dollar ratio on a weekly basis over the past decade.
The ratio created a falling channel (A) from 2011 to 2013. Once support broke Gold continued to be much weaker than the US Dollar for a few years.
The ratio started creating a rising channel (B) in 2016/2017, as higher lows started forming. These higher lows reflected that Gold was outperforming the US Dollar.
The rally over the past couple of years has the ratio testing the top of rising channel (B) and the underside of falling channel (A) at (1).
It appears that a very important long-term breakout test is in play currently, with momentum at the highest level in 8-years.
How the ratio handles this breakout test will send Gold and Silver a very important long-term message.
To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.
Nearly a month ago, we authored our “Crazy Ivan” research post suggesting that precious metals were about to pull a massive “crazy price move” while the US and Global markets breakdown in an attempt to revalue risk, support, resistance, and other unknown factors trying to “revalue” price to more suitable levels given future expectations.
The moves in Gold and Silver over the past 4+ weeks has been incredible. The biggest surprise is in silver, even though we called this move as well. The way precious metals prices transition through periods of risk or fear is that Gold increases in value as fear drives investors into Gold. Whereas, Silver, the lesser shiny metal, which has seen prices further depressed over the past 5+ years, attempts to revert to a less depressed “fair value” to Gold. This process happens every time Gold begins to move substantially higher and results in an incredible opportunity for Silver traders. But first, be sure to opt-in to our free market forecast newsletter
What is the Crazy Ivan event? It is our belief that Gold and Silver will attempt to rally well beyond levels most analysts have been predicting for this year. In fact, we believe Gold could be trading above $1750+ before the end of 2019 because of this Crazy Ivan event that we believe is unfolding right now. This event is based on our belief that a massive shift in the capital will take place as soon as the US major indexes break below key support. Once this support is broken, we believe the Crazy Ivan event will really begin to take form.
Gold Weekly Price Chart
Our research team believes Gold will have one last period where the price will pause before attempting to rally much further. In fact, we believe Gold will potentially retrace to levels near or below $1500 one last time before the real Crazy Ivan event is unleashed. This means we should be patient and wait for the next setup in Gold and Silver before jumping into any new trades.
Are metals bulls about to receive a long-awaited positive message? It won’t take long to find out based upon this chart!
This chart looks at the Silver/Gold ratio on a monthly basis since the early 1980s. Metals bulls historically want to see this ratio moving higher, to send Gold & Silver a positive message.
The ratio has been in a funk since it peaked in 2011. The eight-year decline has driven the ratio down to the lowest level in 28-years.
A bullish reversal pattern took place two months ago while testing this 28-year support level at (1). The rally of late has it testing 3-year falling resistance at (2).
If the ratio breaks out at (2), a long-awaited short-term bullish message will be sent to Silver and Gold bulls!
To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.
Our thoughts on the market: First we believe the US and Global markets are setting up for a broad price sell-off/reversion move. This means we believe the US and Global stock markets could move lower and contract by relatively large percent levels (15% to 25% or more) in the coming months.
Second, we believe this reversion process is related to a number of factors which we’ve highlighted in previous research posts. The US Presidential Election cycle (2020) is one factor. The continued US/China trade war is another factor. The slowing global economy is yet another factor, and the concerns regarding the EU, BREXIT and continuing global economic activity are yet more factors.
Third, we have completed a massive phase in the global markets after the 2008 market crisis that includes the bottoming phase, the revaluation phase, the asset inflation phase, and the asset valuation maturity phase which we are currently in now. The past 9+ years has resulted in an incredible recovery process that is now very mature.
Lastly, we believe the combination of these factors and the process of moving forward through the normal economic cycles related to a mature global asset valuation phase would result in a fairly common process of a “price reversion” which is an attempt to allow prices to explore new lower levels to identify “true value” before beginning a new phase of price inflation.
We’ve been sharing one of our favorite price analysis tools with our followers, the Fibonacci price theory. This theory suggests that price MUST ALWAYS attempt to seek out new highs and/or new lows. If the prices can’t move higher to seek out new highs (because of some fundamental or economic reason or event – like the end of a mature economic price inflation cycle), then they would attempt to move lower and establish some new LOW PRICE level as a process of “revaluing” asset prices.
Scientists say the rules change in a cosmic “black hole” at what astrophysicists call the event horizon. How do they know that? Not by observation, since what happens in there is, by definition, un-seeable. They infer it from the surroundings, which say that the mathematics of the universe as we understand them change at the event horizon.
Or maybe not. One theory says we are all inside a black hole right now. That could possibly explain a few things about central bank policy.
...
Crude Oil has been trading in a fairly narrow range since mid-August – between $52 and $57 ppb. Our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system suggested the downside price move in late July/early August was expected and the current support aligns very well with our ADL predictions of higher price rotation throughout most of September/October. Please take a minute to review the original research post below :
Kroger Co (NYSE: KR) reported second-quarter results that came in better than expected. The earnings beat may have been overshadowed by management's decision to remove its prior guidance of $400 million in incremental EBIT by fiscal 2021.
President Trump said the Dow would be 10,000 points higher if it was not for the FED. In truth if the Dow breaks to new all time highs the next stop is 38,000 and he may be proven correct. Is there an election on?
Of course who knows? But lets continue.
The fundamentals behind this may be:
A good deal with China.
The FED turning on easy money with further rate cuts (very strange with a market near all time highs). FOMC Sept 17th well tell us more.
The above turbo charging stock buy backs.
Off shore money running out of foreign equity markets in to US markets (see note1).
Note1: Of course this has happened before, one particular time was just before O...
Not seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls, that is, the actual numbers, give us a truer picture of the jobs market than the seasonally adjusted garbage that Wall Street spews.
Friday’s seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls jobs headline numbers disappointed investors with slower than expected growth. But was it really that bad?
Here’s How The Street Spun It – Wall Street Journal
Modest August Job Growth Shows Economy Expanding, but Slowly
Employers added 130,000 nonfarm jobs, jobless rate held steady at 3.7%
U.S. employment grew only modestly in August, suggesting that a global economic slowdown isn’t driving the U.S. into recession but has dente...
Last week, a devastating rainstorm in China's Sichuan province triggered mudslides, forcing local hydropower plants and cryptocurrency miners to halt operations, reported CoinDesk.
Torrential rains flooded some parts of Sichuan's mountainous Aba prefecture last Monday, with mudslides seen across 17 counties in the area, according to local government posts on Weibo.
One of the worst-hit areas was Wenchuan county, ...
As evidence of cannabis’ many benefits mounts, so does the interest from the global pharmaceutical industry, known as Big Pharma. The entrance of such behemoths will radically transform the cannabis industry—once heavily stigmatized, it is now a potentially game-changing source of growth for countless co...
For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire. In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.
Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives. A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.
Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...
Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.
In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.
This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.
Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
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A golden canary represents a rising gold price suggesting everything is not awesome and something may just break.
The fragility of the markets can not be underestimated at this time. Our 
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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Ilene is editor and affiliate program
coordinator for PSW. She manages the site