Peace of mind / I have a portfolio mainly consisting of long term long calls, short term short calls and puts, and long term BCS. Three years, ago when I started my journey on this board I would be freaking out panicking as to what to do, as many of the short calls are ITM, Three years later (today) I look at the screen and serenely process the information. Three years ago, I inevitably made the wrong decisions which cost me a lot of money. Three years on I calmly roll the positions to whatever makes sense. No drama, no hair pulling, and a great cost saver. I guess they call that the power of education.
Winston
WOW!!!!!!!!!!!! How will I ever do anything else in my life that will compare to the wild ride you get trading an ultra etf in the most volatile sector in the stock market the day before option expiration?
Matt1966
Phil- I am a former portfolio manager and now retired. I have been following you for about six months and I now know why you have so many followers you are very insightful and knowledgeable.
Mkozberg
I have been a "silent" member for the past year, and am 1,000 hours into the 10K hours of training (The last week is worth at least 500 hours!). Made lots of mistakes and misunderstood quite a few of Phil's calls, … some actually made money when reversed. The chat (Including the politics) is very engaging (Many great minds with international coverage), and a great companion, while nursing a trade gone wrong, through the night. The webinars (despite technical difficulties) are extremely useful. Thanks for your coaching … it has made me a consistently profitable trader, with a better understanding of what I do not know.
Aquila
Phil thanks. You never cease to amaze me with your thoughtful perspective on a myriad of different issues and challenges. It's kind of an embarrassment of riches since I joined this board a few years back. The ride from Dow 9,000 or was it 8,000? up to Dow 15,000 seems hard to believe. I wish I could have it all over again, except with the capital I have now.
Winston
Phil// Cashing out of my LT holdings have been going on for over two weeks. However, I have elected not to cash all of the holdings including my AAPL, Jan 16 Short Puts at $470 and $480. Plus, I am being opportunistic in selectively putting on those positions for beat down stocks by selling 2016 Puts. That said, YTD harvested profits now stand at $135k on a current account balance of $683K or a 19.81% YTD return. Thanks for your expertise in teaching me how to be patient, be the banker, but also not being greedy, cashing out and harvesting profits.
IHS4GOD
On Optrader's section yesterday he was asked how he works with AAPL as an investment. He replied that he just ‘plays with the covers'. I've got a separate portfolio where I use primarily this technique over the past 6 months. Up 60% The principles involved are stock selection, patience, patience, using covers to protect profits, rolling covers to maximize premium return, and exiting when covers are gone and stock price is high. Sometimes it's hard to remember where you learn to do this stuff, but much of it is from integrating principles I've learned here with thing I already knew. Thanks for the help on this, Phil and others.
Iflantheman
I've recently done exactly what Phil described. I upgraded my ability to trade the IRA acct. by transferring acct. from TDA to TOS. TDA would not allow spreads; TOS does. Neither will allow naked options. With spreads I am able to buy calls or puts several months out then sell front month calls or puts over and over. This allows me to collect premium, which is, of course, the goal. This wasn't an original idea. Phil put me onto it. Since the transfer I've substantially increased my performance in the IRA!
Iflantheman
Phil I have been applying your arsenal (matresses, Edz plays, Ugl verticals etc.) to my gold holdings . So a big thank you for "teaching me how to fish" rather than just giving me the fish...
Magret
I think that Phil is super, I am up 39.3% YTD. Thank you for your kindness and the opportunity to observe Phil from February.
KMisko
Thank you Phil we appreciate all the work you put in to teach us valuable lessons about investing.
Pat Swap
I have been here for 8 yrs, and find it the best service out there. There are more eyes on the market in this forum than anywhere, and opinions abound. So, relax, and let the group help you out.
Pharmboy
Phil, Thanks for the long calls@ $ 85 on AAPL. A quick $4900. Paid for my subscription!!
Newthugger
Thanks for you guidance – Your "student" will be passing on the McMuffins and having Lobster dinners tonight!
Aquila
Thx Phil. Lightly moving in the bullish direction. Took PFE for $14.35 and sold the Jan 11 C/P for $2.85 giving me a net entry below Mar 09 low. And I bought back those calls on BTU and JPM I asked about the other day and am leaving them uncovered for now, so feeling better. Still just learning the rhythm.
In the three months I have been using your system, my little portfolio is up 9.9%, so not only am I learning, but I am APPLYING that knowledge, and it's paying off. Thanks.
Hoss
I have been here a year, and made most of my money back from the 14K fall. The people here are more than willing to help whe Phil cannot get to it. FWIW - This site is my brokerage firm, I was with Wells Fargo Portfolio and it was costing a fortune to trade, the costs here are more than offset with the data, trade ideas and profits you should make.. and I get a chuckle out of Cap and Phil's rantings on healtcare, guns, oh, yeah, and government….
Pharmboy
Phil
Killed it tonight trading copper. Anyone who jumped in right after election is up about 75k on one contract!
Thanks
Kapella
Well I want to thank P. Davis for his style and for the fact that he affirmed my thoughts for a correction. He was right and his confirmation of my bias saved me thousands. Mr. Davis is amoral when it comes to money. He realizes the poor are screwed but we must fight to win. A measure of sarcasm and dark humour and it is great reading. 100% right on the correction.
Chaffey
Phil, 26% on the week for the 20% I day-trade, and since drinking the kool-aid last fall, the whole portfolio has doubled. Have a great weekend !!
JRW III
Phil/CL-that play made a quick $500 per contract! Took all of 10 minutes! I want to thank you for helping me not just learn a bit about trading, but giving me some confidence and most of all a rewarding "hobby" to look forward to each day. I have had a few mistakes and losses along the way, but I have had some great wins too and I am now consistently making money trading futures and have even learned to go to sleep while holding a losing position knowing that tomorrow is always another opportunity to win again. So thanks again for your help and patience along the way.
Craigsa620
Phil - I just referred 10 people. Last week was a 50% gainer for me. There are companies that want to sell mentoring service for thousands of dollars. This is far better of a deal with very good advice.
Steve
Hey Phil - writing to thank you!
First of all, and I know you have heard this a few times form some others - the portfolio updates you have done - with entries and targets and even margin reqs are invaluable!
I find myself understanding what is done here IN THEORY most of the time..however, there is a much bigger difference in placing and setting up the hedges properly than just understanding…This has been eye opening for me and Ifeel like I just took a major step in trading during the last week.
Bcfla
Phil – BTW, the new STP/LTP coupled with the income portfolio is Perfect! I do not trade all of them, very few actually since I work during market hours. However, following the trades real-time is very educational.
I did enter the ABX call if you recall, I rolled to July on that nonsense news that sent it tumbling. Out today for 110% gain (2.00 stop) not counting covering the loss from the earlier roll. Nonetheless, a good trade.
Keep it up…. Thanks
JFawcett
Phil,
thank you for the thorough response(s). I joined this group last week to take my education to the next level. the school i am involved with very good at calling out levels but very little live trading and little help in managing a position going against you.
I like the combo of knowing where the major levels are coupled with your approach to getting in. learned a lot this week.
thank you!
DawnR
I have been a member of Phil's site for three years and counting, and my advice is that all investing takes time. There are o shortcuts, no secret way to riches. Same with Phil's site- you need time and patience to start benefitting fully from his advice. But it is often spot on and also very useful, especially to me as I try to keep a level head in this turbulent stock market environment.
Jordan
I have followed a lot of Phil's picks over the last several years and made money using the exact option strategies he outlines. Of all the contributors on SA, he offers the most actual and ready to implement advice that has put money in my account. Many of us on SA actually are sad when we don't see Phil's postings for an extended period.
Brenteaz
Phil: Thank You!
Scaling, Scaling, and Scaling… then patience, patience, patience I'm 2 to 1 short and even on a day the broad market is up I had my largest one day gain in years. The last 6 weeks in fact have been great. I really feel I've learned to use some tools that will enable me to deal with the turbulence ahead. Selling short calls is definitely my preferred approach. Even allowed me to play golf this afternoon while the premium melted away and shoot a career low round. I owe you man!
Lincoln
Phil/thankyou. Phil, I went over the recording of last weeks webinar. I liked it a lot and wanted to thank you. I thought the case studies (company reviews) were detailed, I learned more about selling puts process and also what happens if stock continues to go down after that, I liked the fact that we discuss so many different avenues like stocks, optiond, futures, oil, commodities etc… I replayed portions of it multiple times to make sure I was grasping it but wanted to say good job. Thanks…
Nramanuja
Phil – Not that you dont usually, but you have DEFINITELY earned your money this week. THe recommendations have been PERFECT. Selling into the initial excitement (MULTIPLE TIMES), hedges, everything. Im reading this when I get home from work and want to cry b/c I cant trade at work! I might have to start getting up at 3 AM though to catch those trades bc youre killing it then too! May you and yours have a blessed weekend!
Jromeha
New members – a word of advice: you should check out the track record of Phil's last few trades of the year, and what the return would be if you just rolled all the gains into the next years trade of the year. Remember – trade of the year is one he's virtually sure of, and he rarely misses on those
The Gold rally in June was very impressive. Is the bear market in Gold over? Many are of the opinion a major breakout in Gold has taken place. What this indicator does at current levels could go a long way to seeing if the rally in June will continue into July!
The chart looks at the Gold/US Dollar ratio on a weekly basis over the past 9-years. The ratio for the past 8-years has created a series of lower highs, something that Gold bulls would love to see change.
The ratio has created a series of lower highs below line (A) since early 2013. The ratio has attempted a few times to break above this line with no success.
A few time the ratio’s momentum indicator was lofty and the ratio peaked near each (B).
Currently, the ratio is testing falling resistance at (1) as momentum is lofty at (2). In the past Gold peaked when these conditions were present.
Will it be different this time? Gold bulls sure hope so!!!
If staying on top of conditions and opportunities in the metals market (Gold, Silver, Copper, and Miners) are of interest to you, you would benefit from being a Metals member or a Weekly Combo Member. Check out details HERE-
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To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.
The lessons of Cyprus should remind us all that the big losers during a banking crisis are the savers, and if a bank is currently deducting interest from your savings account (i.e negative interest rate) why would you keep money in a bank when recession risks grow. Banks go bust in a recession and bank bail ins are to be expected to be the norm during a crisis.
There are several ways to defend yourself from the claws of a bank bail ins:
1) Buy gold and silver (very liquid, risky). 2) Buy digital assets (very liquid, extremely risky). 3) Buy art and rare items (risky during a recession). 4) Buy Real Estate (risky during a recession).
It appears the mysterious and unknown Satoshi created a means of exchange out side the banking system which can not be debased and its design will allow it to be freely exchanged for products and services. Is it real or a government psyop, who knows, the truth is the journey is not over for the bitcoin.
Who is Satoshi?
Is he alive? Who knows! Satoshi is believed to be the holder of a key owning $1M bitcoin. The single largest key. So far has had no single transaction to date. Curious? Internet sleuths have hold this story out to be the best guess of who Satoshi is.
Everything cycles. The problem is finding out the cycle to help one forecast the next cycle. Here is how readtheticker cycle tools found bitcoin cycle.
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How was the cycle period this found ?
Europe is already a slave to economic madness.
The above has resulted in $13,000,000,000 USD (trillion) of bonds yielding negative interest rates. With recession odds for the US bouncing around 30% to 60% and on the occurrence of a recession the level…
This chart looks at the Silver/Gold ratio over the past 25-years. Historically bullish investors in Gold & Silver receive a positive message when this ratio is heading higher. When the ratio is heading lower, historically rallies in Gold often times have been short-lived.
The trend since the 2011 highs has been down, as the ratio has created a series of lower highs and lower lows. The decline over the past 8-years has the ratio at the lowest level in the past 28-years, as it is testing the 1992 lows at (1).
Even though Gold has moved up this month, the ratio has continued to move lower, reflecting Silvers weakness to Gold.
This weakness is of some concern to bullish metals investors as the month is nearing a close.
Bullish metals investors would receive “Happy News” from this ratio if it rallies off the 1992 lows!
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To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.
Gold has been strong of late as the US Dollar has been weak. This combo has driven the Gold/Dollar ratio to a key price zone and momentum level, that looks to be important to metals bulls.
This chart looks at the Gold/Dollar ratio over the past 6-years. The long-term trend is down, while the trend over the past 3-years is pretty much flat (sideways trading range).
The rally of late has the ratio testing the 2018 highs as well as its 38% Fibonacci retracement level of the 2012 highs/2015 lows at (1).
While testing these key levels at (1), momentum is currently the highs since the 2017 highs. The bullish case for metals is facing an important breakout/resistance test at (1).
One thing is for sure, metals bulls have their fingers crossed that a lower high peak does not take place at current levels.
If the ratio breaks above resistance at (1), it would send a bullish message to metals they haven’t received in years!
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To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.
The stock market has been on fire of late, rallying up to the edge of price resistance on several indexes. Today, we look at one of those stock market indexes: the Wilshire 5000.
The Wilshire 5000 tracks all of the stocks in the US market, so it is a broad-based index that carries significant importance when gauging the health of the overall US stock market.
Looking at the long-term “weekly” chart above, it is pretty clear that the index is at an important price juncture.
The Wilshire 5000 spent the last 25 years trading within a rising price channel (1). It tested the top of that price channel at (2), creating a large bearish reversal candle in September of 208, that lead to a steep decline in year-end. It then retested that level in April, where it failed to breakout again.
This broad-based stock index is currently testing last fall’s highs at point (3). This comes at the same time that momentum is testing its downtrend line.
The bullish case for stocks DOES NOT want this broad index to be creating a triple top.
Stock bulls would receive wonderful price news if this broad index succeeds in breaking out at (3).
An important inflection point is in play for one of the broadest of all stock indices in the states at this time!!!
This article was first written for See It Markets.com. To see the original post, CLICK HERE.
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To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.
My Chart o’ the Day this weekend comes to us from Jonathan Krinsky at Baycrest Partners, who’s out with some significant insights about the week that was.
He looks at the possibility that both the dollar and bond prices have hit a high and are now about to roll over. A drop in USD below support, which appears to be imminent, would have all sorts of implications for the recent breakout in gold extending and for the potential of emerging markets stocks outperforming US stocks. A drop in bond prices (rates going up) could mean a reversion in the bond proxy rally (REITs and Utes) and a boost for the banks and brokerage stocks.
Here’s a quick insight that’s worth passing on about the broader market, now that we’ve just seen a new S&P 500 high this week…
The SPX recovered all of its May losses, and made a marginal new all-time high this week. Over the last 18-months it hasn’t been making the new high that’s been difficult, it’s been holding the new high.
Well…will it hold? The last several attempts at these levels have been met by vicious sell-offs shortly afterward. But, as my friend JC Parets reminds us, triple tops are extremely rare. The third attempt usually gives you good odds that a high will stick. This isn’t voodoo, it’s buyer and seller psychology.
Source:
Silver Linings Playbook
Barcrest Partners – June 23rd, 2019
When valuations for the boring water company or the boring electric company is trading like your Facebook, Apple, Amazon or Netflix or Google (ie FANG) you know something is wrong.
This is when a seriously over valued market is screaming at you.
Of course the reader must understand in a world where money printing goes super nuts (Zimbabwe style) the stock market may go hyper inflationary and picking a time frame for a top is never a good idea, but we are not there yet. There is no Ben Bernanke helicopter money to the masses yet (ie MMT).
To see when water company’s (and such like) are nearing the crazy FANG like valuations a review of the Dow Jones Utility Index channel shows us how history can repeat. The chart below suggest the coming 2020 money boost from the central planners should keep stocks up until 2019/20. Must be an election year, hmmm!
Of course after the recent gold move the SP500 may end up 10% by Dec 2020, but in gold terms it may be flat or down, meaning gold moving higher and faster than the SP500. Of course SP500 moving higher while gold moves higher is good for gold stocks, on a relative strength basis.
The short story is: Happy stock market days should continue into 2020. But watch out for a massive top in the Dow Jones Utility Index as history is likely to repeat as a bear market arrives.
Subject to either of: 1) US/Iran war pushing oil going to $100 and a world recession follows very quickly. 2) Super nuts money printing, Zimbabwe style and Dow Jones to $50,000 3) Deutsche bank blows up Lehman style.
Dow Jones Utility Index History Rhymes.
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Cycle chart confirms channel forecast top.
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Fundamentals are important, and so is market timing, here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination
of Gann Angles, Cycles, Wyckoff and Ney logic
is the best way to secure better timing…
Gold has been red-hot of late, raising the hopes of precious metals bulls. After several failed rallies, is Gold (NYSEARCA: GLD) finally ready to breakout?
One ratio that I like to follow to monitor precious metals is the Gold to US Dollar ratio.
As you can see in the “monthly” bar chart above, the Gold / US Dollar ratio has been trading in a multi-year narrowing pennant pattern, with support at (1) and resistance at (2).
The ratio is working on a breakout above the 8-year falling resistance line at (3).
A breakout here would be huge for precious metals bulls… and could be the start of a larger rally if it holds.
Are interest rates near a short-term low? Possible!
This chart looks at the Yield on the 10-year note (TNX) over the past 15-years. The lower part of the chart measures the 35-week performance of TNX.
Five different times over the past 10-years, yields have declined around 35% in 35-weeks at each (1). Yields were closer to short-term lows than highs when this large of a decline took place at each (1).
Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am; Yields are testing 2017 lows at this time, after a 35% decline in the past 35-weeks. Over the past 10-years, yields were closer to short-term lows when these conditions were in play.
A very important support test is currently in play at the 2% level. If this support fails to hold after such a large decline, bonds are suggesting the odds of an economic slowdown is high.
To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.
Facebook's second day of Congressional hearings over Libra was by most accounts a total debacle - between Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D-CA) suggesting that the social media giant 'shouldn't launch' the cryptocurrency - as new currencies should be 'left to democratically accountable institutions,' and another lawmaker accusing the company of 'winging it.'
"Would you trust your money with a company that is just winging it?" She isn't buying w...
ValueWalk’s Q&A session with Professor Shubha Ghosh, a professor of law and the director of the Syracuse Intellectual Property Law Institute. In this interview, Professor Ghosh discusses his background, the Human Genome Project, the current state of gene editing, 3D printing for organ operations, and gene editing regulation.
Charts show us the golden brick road to high prices.
GLD Gann Angle has been working since 2016. Higher prices are expected. Who would say anything different, and why and how?
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The GLD very wide channel shows us the way. - Conservative: Tag the 10 year rally starting in 2001 to 2019 and it forecasts $750 GLD (or $7500 USD Gold Futures) in 10 years. - Aggressive: Tag the 5 year rally starting in 1976 to 2019 and it forecasts $750 GLD (or $7500 USD Gold Futures) in 5 years.
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For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire. In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.
Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives. A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.
Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...
The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.
This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...
Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.
This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).
We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options.
Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.
To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here
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Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.
In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.
This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.
Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
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Dear Mr and Mrs Middle class you have been plucked and buttered ready for the oven of the next financial crisis. 
When valuations for the boring water company or the boring electric company is trading like your Facebook, Apple, Amazon or Netflix or Google (ie FANG) you know something is wrong. 
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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Ilene is editor and affiliate program
coordinator for PSW. She manages the site
