Tech Indices Ignore Semiconductor Weakness to Breakout
by Chart School - July 12th, 2018 6:22 pm
Courtesy of Declan.
Tech Indices are not waiting on the Semiconductor Index aa both the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 closed at new all-time highs. The Nasdaq 100 had the best response with a clear breakout. This move accelerated the relative advance against the Russell 2000 setting things up nicely for a challenge of upper channel resistance.
The Nasdaq also enjoyed an uptick against the S&P as it inched a new high. Volume climbed to register accumulation. Technicals are all net bullish.
The S&P also generated a breakout which was enough to negate the ‘bull trap’. Relative performance continued its recovery after four months of decline. As with Tech indices, the upside target is channel resistance.
The index with work to do is the Russell 2000. It was able to make some ground but not to the same degree as Tech and Large Cap indices. The double top remains in play and with relative performance moving sharply lower, Small Caps could struggle to attract buyers.
For tomorrow, bulls are back in the driving seat after yesterday’s whipsaw short trades in Tech indices. With relative performance moving away from Small Caps to Tech and potentially Large Cap indices new trading opportunities are starting to emerge.
You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.
I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.
If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.
 Twitter
|
LinkedIn
|
 del.icio.us
|
|
Markets Stumble As June Highs Challenged
by Chart School - July 11th, 2018 5:19 pm
Courtesy of Declan.
It was by no means a disaster but there was an ominous feel to Wednesday’s close. Bulls had used the momentum built by last week’s gains to make a run at all-time highs but profit takers and shorts used this as an opportunity to get out/build a position. It’s a typical stage I reaction to a resistance test but now it’s a question if there is enough sideline interest from bulls to drive a break to new all-time highs and force today’s shorts to cover.
The S&P left a small ‘bull trap’ on low volume. Technicals are net bullish so if bulls can come back and reverse the ‘bull trap’ it would nicely set up a run to test newly drawn channel resistance. But for now, shorts look favoured.
The Semiconductor Index had thrown an unexpected surge yesterday but bears were having none of it and the index dropped below key support. Technicals are mixed and the 200-day MA is again the support level but to survive three tests in four months looks unlikely.
Tech indices are still holding their breakouts but weakness in the Semiconductor Index won’t help. The Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 are both net bullish and have plenty of support even if the Semiconductor Index does not.
Finally, the Russell 2000 took the second day of losses after a picture-perfect reversal at resistance. Don’t be surprised if this morphs into a trading range using 1,610 support.
For tomorrow, it’s about bulls sticking close to resistance and mounting a return challenge to make new all-time highs. If there is a fresh day of losses it will be about looking at support of 50, 200-day MAs and/or horizontal support marked by Spring swing highs for non-Large Cap indices.
You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.
I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.
If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.
|
Twitter
|
LinkedIn
|
del.icio.us
|
|
RTT browsing latest..
by Chart School - July 10th, 2018 6:11 am
Courtesy of Read the Ticker.
Please review a collection of WWW browsing results.
Date Found: Saturday, 24 February 2018, 04:53:02 PM
Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing. 
Comment: KWN: Extremely Rare Occurrence In The Silver Market…pressure, pressure,…pop!
Date Found: Saturday, 24 February 2018, 07:54:46 PM
Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing. 
Comment: KWN .. like 1987 they say!
Date Found: Saturday, 24 February 2018, 09:03:01 PM
Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing. 
Comment: US’s projected twin deficits will be the largest outside of a recession, JPM says.RTT: What could go wrong when the music stops!
Date Found: Sunday, 25 February 2018, 02:56:53 PM
Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing. 
Comment: Stockman: Do we think that $4.2 trillion of extra central bank credit has changed everything?
Date Found: Sunday, 25 February 2018, 02:58:00 PM
Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing. 
Comment: Stockman: The singular chart that should scare the bejesus out of casino gamblers who remain drunk on the trading charts embedded in robo-machines and the fancy bespoke trades peddled by Wall Street brokers. FED balance sheet starts to shrink!
Date Found: Sunday, 25 February 2018, 05:11:14 PM
Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing. 
Comment: RMR: Special Guest: Jim Willie – Gold Oil Ratio (02/25/2018). The solution is a higher oil and gold price (higher interest rates will follow) youtu.be/4f4gObWkEjg
Date Found: Monday, 26 February 2018, 06:49:25 PM
Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing. 
Comment: Michael Pento Talks to Legendary Investor Jim Rogers youtu.be/2d9vJzqZM0Y
Date Found: Tuesday, 27 February 2018, 08:56:06 PM
Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing. 
Comment: Who created Bitcoin? youtu.be/UkVxhND2Eiw
Date Found: Wednesday, 28 February 2018, 12:28:27 PM
Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing. 
Comment: RTT: Do fundamentals matter anymore? If so gold going to…
|
Twitter
|
LinkedIn
|
del.icio.us
|
|
Weekly Market Recap Jul 08, 2018
by Chart School - July 8th, 2018 3:16 pm
Courtesy of Blain.
Currently the action for short term traders is choppy and tricky. Those with a long term view still are in cruise control as they have been for years. The holiday shortened week saw most of the action Monday as a “gap down” was met with buying, a nice rally Thursday, and then the employment data Friday gave the market something to think about other than TRADE WARS!!(tm) [which ironically began in earnest that day]. As a note, the NYSE McClellan Oscillator went positive late in the week.
Friday the Trump administration officially imposed tariffs on $34 billion of Chinese imports at midnight Eastern Time, and Beijing implemented tariffs on the same value in U.S. goods, as promised.
In other “fun” Axios reported early in the week that the Trump administration had crafted a draft bill that would declare America’s abandonment of World Trade Organization rules. This would essentially give Trump a license to raise tariffs at will, without congressional consent and largely outside of the international rules governed by the WTO.
Fed policy makers saw negative risks from U.S. trade policy, saying it “had intensified,” indicating that a tit-for-tat tariff clash could have negative effects on business sentiment and investment spending, according to the minutes of the June 12-13 Federal Open Market Committee released Thursday.
For the week the S&P 500 gained 1.5% and the NASDAQ 2.4%.
On Monday, it was reported the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index rose to 60.2 in June from 58.7 – that’s a very strong reading (anything over 50 signals expansion and 60+ is rare). A read on construction spending rose 0.4% in May. Thursday, the ISM nonmanufacturing index forJune came in at 59.1 from the previous month’s reading of 58.6; again very strong.
“The increase in the ISM manufacturing index in June is a clear sign that, for now at least, the strength of the domestic economy is more than offsetting
…
|
Twitter
|
LinkedIn
|
del.icio.us
|
|
Friday’s Gains Deliver Breakout
by Chart School - July 7th, 2018 7:07 pm
Courtesy of Declan.
The past couple of weeks have been a period of give-and-take but Friday broke the mold by marking a second day of gains for many of the indices (four for the Russell 2000). More importantly, it took markets above resistance and into a position where they can mount a challenge of June highs.
The Russell 2000 had the best of the week’s action. After a successful test of the 200-day MA the index went on a four-day run of gains. Small Caps have been exhibiting quiet strength. If it can make a break above 1,710 it will mark a new all-time high for the index and return its role as market leader.
The Nasdaq pushed into its ‘bull trap’ with 7,806 the last barrier to new all-time highs.
What may be more problematic is the Semiconductor Index. It enjoyed the strong gains of other indices but now finds itself up against former rising support now resistance which is also a convergence with the 50-day MA. Shorts may find play here but will need to be on their toes if the market rallies after the first half-hour of trading as this would suggest underlying strength; the June breakdown gap will act like a vacuum and ‘suck’ prices higher.
There is not a whole lot going on with the longer term charts. The one I’m watching is the relationship between the Dow Jones and the Dow Transports Index. Transports are an important economic indicator and despite gains, have underperformed against the Dow Jones Index; an underperformance which goes back to 2015. The relationship has improved but stronger gains are needed if the March-June rallies are not some extended flash in the pan.
For Monday, it will be important the mini-breakouts hang-on and survive the next wave of selling – likely to occur early Monday. If they can retain the breakouts by Monday’s close it will begin to attract doubters and build the confidence of existing long holders.
You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.
I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.
If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.
|
Twitter
|
LinkedIn
|
del.icio.us
|
|
Yamana Gold Inc Chart Review
by Chart School - July 7th, 2018 6:30 pm
Courtesy of Read the Ticker.
The chart of this gold stock has clear foot prints and is one to watch!
More from RTT Tv
The gold market it tight, and the bullion banks are worried, if unsure listen to this.
Sure fundamentals do matter, and so does market timing (entry, stops and exit), here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination of Gann Angles, Cycles and Wyckoff Logic is the best way to secure better timing than most, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years. With our website you can chart any security in the world.
NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net
Investing Quote…
..”Tape reading was an important part of the game; so was beginning at the right time; so was sticking to your position. But my greatest discovery was that a man must study general conditions, to size them so as to be able to anticipate probabilities.”…
Jesse Livermore
..”Markets are designed to allow individuals to look after their private needs and to pursue profit. It’s really a great invention and I wouldn’t under-estimate the value of that, but they’re not designed to take care of social needs”..
George Soros
..“It’s not what you own that will send you bust but what you owe.”..
Anon
..“Don’t try to buy at the bottom and sell at the top. It can’t be done except by liars.”..
Bernard Baruch
..”The key to making money in stocks is not to get scared out of them”
Peter Lynch
|
Twitter
|
LinkedIn
|
del.icio.us
|
|
Trading Ranges Dominant
by Chart School - July 4th, 2018 6:45 pm
Courtesy of Declan.
Tuesday delivered another shift with sellers coming back, although not to the same extent as Monday’s buying. The net result was to leave trading ranges in key markets. Until there is a break we won’t know where the nest move will come but it will keep people on the sidelines until there is a resolution.
The Nasdaq is still holding its breakout support (and 50-day MA). Volume has dropped into the July 4th holiday but no directional move yet.
The Russell 2000 managed to run counter to other indices with a small gain. The 50-day MA is still support and more importantly is above prior price congestion. Unlike Tech and Large Caps, this is shaping up as a swing low and is giving longs a trading opportunity.
For tomorrow, trends have to be established. The Russell 2000 is the one closest to doing so. Any existing trades – long or short – can be held until price action forces them out.
You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.
I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.
If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.
|
Twitter
|
LinkedIn
|
del.icio.us
|
|
What Have You Done For Me Lately?
by ilene - July 4th, 2018 1:22 am
What Have You Done For Me Lately?
Courtesy of Michael Batnick
The S&P 500 has gone 108 days without closing at an all-time high. This is the second longest drought since the index first made new highs in March, 2013.
The chart below shows the days without an all-time closing high (red), the S&P 500 return (black), and new all-time closing highs (green).
On March 28, 2013, the day the S&P 500 finally made an all-time high, The Wall Street Journal described the debate that dominated financial markets:
“On one side, Italy’s difficulty in forming a new government stoked fears that Europe still hasn’t dealt with its financial problems, despite the reopening of Cyprus’s banks. In addition, new U.S. weekly unemployment claims surprised economists by ticking higher while another report showed soft manufacturing activity in the Midwest.”
The article also included some serious bear porn.
“Ordinary investors began pushing money back into U.S. stock mutual funds in January and February. Many had sold during the crisis and some appeared to regain confidence as indexes neared records, meaning some had sold low and bought high.”
Aside from the anecdote that “ordinary investors” were returning, which always gets more attention than it deserves, there were plenty of legitimate reasons to be skeptical that the rally would continue. The S&P 500 had compounded at 25.6% for the previous four years, and with a CAPE ratio of 23, they were no longer a bargain. On top of that, the economy wasn’t doing great. Jobless claims were 357k, unemployment was 7.5%, and the most recent GDP report showed an annual increase of just 0.4%. And of course, one can’t forget that all of the gains in the market was due to quantitative easing, which many feared was blowing another bubble into assets.
It was perfectly reasonable to suspect that stocks had run too far too fast, or that the money, easy or otherwise had already been made.
But in the five plus years since March 2013 the index (TR) has compounded at 13.2% per year. Remember, this is after gaining 26% per year over the previous four years (148% total). So it’s really okay if we go another 100 or…
|
Twitter
|
LinkedIn
|
del.icio.us
|
|
Monday was to Friday as Friday was to Thursday
by Chart School - July 2nd, 2018 6:35 pm
Courtesy of Declan.
In yet another turnaround for markets, today started with a large gap down which had the makings of a sizable bearish sell-off – only for bulls to start buying from the open and to continue to do so throughout the day. Better still, today’s surge undid much of the damage done Friday.
For the S&P, the action over the last six days has much in common with the scrappy action around the 200-day MA in March/April. The only thing I don’t like about this action is the frequency of the tests of the 200-day MA; the more frequent the tests the greater the chance for a break. A move above the 20-day MA should be enough to confirm a new swing low and deliver a challenge on resistance of the June swing high; riskreward measured on a loss of 2,690. There was even an uptick in relative strength against the Russell 2000.
The Nasdaq had a more natural defense level of the 50-day MA and a horizontal support level. Support at 7,420 is stronger than the corresponding support in the S&P. There was also a relative performance uptick against the S&P; again – further confirmation of its net strength against its peers.
The Russell 2000 also posted a good day with buyers confirming 1,630 as a swing low. Relative performance has struggled against the Nasdaq and now looks to be struggling against the S&P. While the index has the most attractive – current – swing-low ‘buy’ play, it may be entering a phase when this advantage starts to unwind.
As for other indices, the Dow Jones Index is at channel support but relative performance remains weak. Buyers can use the swing low at 24,000 for risk:reward with a target of channel resistance.
The Semiconductor Index has the riskiest swing low ‘buy’ play with it trading at its last point of defense, the 200-day MA. Technicals are all net bearish and relative performance is very weak. Not for the faint of heart.
…
|
Twitter
|
LinkedIn
|
del.icio.us
|
|
Supply Issues Emerge As Bounce Stalls
by Chart School - July 1st, 2018 6:26 pm
Courtesy of Declan.
Friday’s action didn’t bring about the bounce I would have liked after Thursday’s picture-perfect defenses of lead moving averages or support.
The S&P closed with a bearish black candlestick on a spike high above the 50-day MA. Volume climbed in accumulation as On-Balance-Volume triggered a ‘buy’ signal. I would see this as a bearish close and would look for downside Monday; potentially playing for a test of the 200-day MA
The Nasdaq also left a bearish black candlestick after it bounced off its 50-day MA. There wasn’t a spike high so it’s not as bearish as the S&P but black candlesticks are nearly always followed by lower closes the next day.
It was the same story for the Nasdaq 100; look for a fresh test of channel support.
The Semiconductor Index is also showing a black candlestick. It occurred below rising support (now resistance) following a second test of the 200-day MA. Monday is a big day for the index. Should the 200-day MA fail to hold as support, then aside from the April swing low, there isn’t a whole lot to hang on too. This will be bad news for the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 (and possibly Small and Large Caps too); it’s a key watch index for the coming weeks.
The Russell 2000 finished with a gravestone doji with the 50-day MA its most recent test. Relative performance finished with a switch lower – although this relationship has effectively flat-lined since mid-April. It still has support to work with but wannabe buyers will probably want to see what happens in the Semiconductor Index before jumping in.
For tomorrow, watch the Semiconductor Index, it’s looking like a bellwether for the other indices. Friday’s finish suggests Monday will be a down day.
You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.
I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.
If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.
|
Twitter
|
LinkedIn
|
del.icio.us
|
|
German
Spanish
French
Italian
Portuguese
Japanese
Korean
Russian
Chinese
Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Ilene is editor and affiliate program
coordinator for PSW. She manages the site
