Phil's Stock World, Stock Options Trading & Information

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Against all prognostics (bears) Phil pointed in the morning the correct direction, and in middle of day he pointed the possible move to 2.5% Incredible… I'm starting to serious believe on the program trading and the human nature behind the programing those "trade-bots".

Spider
Phil – I think I finally figured out your "crystal ball" time frame. You're about 5-14 days AHEAD of what the market is going to do. It's taken me a long time to realize this, but boy it's been profitable. I go in when you recommend something at about 25% allocation, and then add to it each day it "goes the wrong way" Then BOOM, one day it's all good…. The long put list was literally exact in it's timing.

Burrben
I discovered PSW while reading up on the US economy and how it applies to all the poor folk of the world and to myself as a humble UK desk slave. This year I put time into learning options trading. I upgraded (with great administrative difficulty!) my stock dealing account to deal options. Now I am an avid reader of PSW and subscribed for voyeur membership. Initially feeling out of my depth struggling to keep up with the peculiar language of options traders, I unsubscribed feeling a little under confident and uncertain if the small stake I have to invest in options could generate enough to justify my PSW subscription. Nevertheless, I've benefited considerably from the member's material. From a small number of initial trades, I've exceeded profit targets enough to consider re-subscribing in some capacity. Thanks for the knowledge and more than anything I appreciate the human angle, the humour and the ecologically sympathetic approach rarely seen in other financial media. Best wishes all - Jon

Jon
Peter D: great write-up for Short Strangles, Part 1, looking forward to Part 2, particularly the adjustment part.

RMM
New members – a word of advice: you should check out the track record of Phil's last few trades of the year, and what the return would be if you just rolled all the gains into the next years trade of the year. Remember – trade of the year is one he's virtually sure of, and he rarely misses on those

Deano
Phil, Passed a milestone today since joining 2 months ago. 25% of my account is in buy/writes, bull call spreads and disaster hedges. A majority of the trades were taken directly from your ideas or someone else`s contributions. Some were daytrades that became spreads. That part of my account is up 30% as of today. I don`t worry about it, or mess with it much, did a few rolls etc. Rest of the account is there to day trade, cover the writes and take advantage of opportunities. Thanks to everyone who contributes here, what a sweet way to trade, so many opportunities.

Ben1Be
Phil, those OIH $80 p that you recommended last week for ~$1 are now worth $5.50!

Greg
Phil: UNH, hedged stock position, doing great, up over 50 %,

RMM
Dear Phil, I have followed along with your commentary and alerts and have been flabbergasted at your quick analytical skills and your journalistic skills to explain it clearly. In a little over three weeks I have cleared almost 1000.00 dollars and got an intensive education at the same time. I would like to immediately upgrade my membership. It is hard for me to follow all evening as I am in Tokyo but I can join you at the beginning of the market and read the next day.

Tokyolife
Thanks to Phil (again) for the lessons on the art of the roll, selling premium and hanging tight under fire (particularly in the first hour of trading-MADNESS). Watching you manage the $25KP has really helped my trading in a big way.

Oknoman
TBT - Many thanks, Phil. I join you in your opinion favoring the Jan expirations. That's a great play. I can never thank you enough for what I have gained educationally as well as monitarily. Here it is late Sunday evening and I am able to get world class advice, just by asking for it. I feel like I am staying in a 5 star hotel, and room service is just a telephone call away!

Gel1
Phil: Thank You! Scaling, Scaling, and Scaling… then patience, patience, patience I'm 2 to 1 short and even on a day the broad market is up I had my largest one day gain in years. The last 6 weeks in fact have been great. I really feel I've learned to use some tools that will enable me to deal with the turbulence ahead. Selling short calls is definitely my preferred approach. Even allowed me to play golf this afternoon while the premium melted away and shoot a career low round. I owe you man!

Lincoln
Phil - Moved today to send kudos. You're in my top 5 to see/read daily. I do not trade... but as former econ-finance adjunct faculty near Stanford U. I give you lots of attaboys.... and provide your links to many to spread some understanding of the mess we are in. Best to you and yours,

HJ Kobbeman
Phil - I know I am small change compared to most others members, but I just wanted to let you know that during the last two weeks with the shorts you and others suggested I have 6 winners and 5 losers. My losers were small because I tried to follow your guidelines as best I could. On the other hand my winners on average were around 50%. Consequently, I am up $2000 in 14 days. Thank you for your patience and help. I think I am making progress getting rid of some of my poor trading habits of the past!

DCalrk41
I started with $250,000 in cash as of Oct 1 and have realized gains of $81,000 thru close of business. And that's in an IRA with no margin or naked trades. Whenever you are in Argentina or Chile I owe you a drink. I'm looking forward to it.

Denlundy
Phil - I followed your great pick re F and sold short the 1011 2.50 puts (200 contracts) and paid for the next 10 years of membership fees…. Thanks!

Gel1
GOOG, NFLX and AAPL all bought last hour Friday. Sold into the excitement the first hour today for an average of 15% on the options. And lots of them. Thanks again Phil for teaching me so well.

lflantheman
Aapl/Phil Thanks for your advice, always appreciated. So, not so much a tax issue, but more to protect against a 5% or greater drop. Here is what I did before their earnings…sold 25% of my stock at 147.50 Against the rest, I sold the June $140 calls for $8.25, protecting down to $140 if needed. And just for fun, I bought the weekly $145 puts for $1.50( small price to pay if they bombed on earnings) So, overall, I am happy with the insurance I was able to 'generate' for 1% of the price of stock. Now, depending on what happens, I have the luxury of deciding and being in the driver's seat with respect to whether to sell and buy your spreads or not. Having done all that meandering, I must say it was fun! More important, I could not have done something like that 2 or 3 years ago and reading and thinking about your teachings has been a tremendous asset. Thanks!

Maya1
I have definitely learned to take smaller wins early and be happy with that. Lately, I've aimed for $250 profit per day. Doing that daily/weekly x 48 weeks (assuming I take some time off) works out to 60k per year. That's a lot of money!! $250 moves happen all the time if you just wait for them.

JeffDoc
Phil – BTW, the new STP/LTP coupled with the income portfolio is Perfect! I do not trade all of them, very few actually since I work during market hours. However, following the trades real-time is very educational. I did enter the ABX call if you recall, I rolled to July on that nonsense news that sent it tumbling. Out today for 110% gain (2.00 stop) not counting covering the loss from the earlier roll. Nonetheless, a good trade. Keep it up…. Thanks

JFawcett
Phil Killed it tonight trading copper. Anyone who jumped in right after election is up about 75k on one contract! Thanks

Kapella
The strategy you have laid out pretty much mirrors much of my trading activity. I also mix in some momentum plays and "drop dead" bargains that come across my radar. My YTD trading profit is 63%. Back in March when Phil said "unless you think the world is coming to an end, then NOW is the time to start taking positions in Buy/Writes with the VIX so high." I jumped in with both feet - ( thanks, again Phil)

Chaps
Wishing Phil and all fellow PSW members a Happy, Healthy and Prosperous New Year 2017! Thanks to all of you for your insights and comments which help make me a better investor every day. Wishing everybody the best of luck for 2017

Learner
Hi Mr. Phill, I am a Venezuelan lady tormented by our politicall situation, who use to be an emerging market trader, and many other executive positins in the finance "arena" and now is trying to built a new concept and service for asset management for clients on my own, I am in the trial and learning process at the moment, I also invest for some friends and myself. I want to congratulate you , because reading you fill my days with a touch of irony (besides ,of course the spectacular market insight) that happens to give me energy, its a joy the remarks and comments even the pictures used, sometimes I just read it for the fun, I completily agree with your thouhts, though we belong to totally different cultures and enviorements and certanly realities Your readings is like a little hand helping me out to be in the market and fight for my devastated country where every single day we looe inches and yards of liberty. You shoul try to writte a book!

Mindeyes
Gel1…..I've been here 6 months, mostly watching and learning. Lots of smart people on the site and I've learned a lot from Phil and many others. //// Inflan - I have to trump your sentiments regarding the wisdom of the board. I have to thank Phil and the many contruibutors for a 80% profit for 2009. I have learned a lot and am still learning ( even occasionally about political issues - ha! )

Iflantheman & Gel1
Phil thanks. You never cease to amaze me with your thoughtful perspective on a myriad of different issues and challenges. It's kind of an embarrassment of riches since I joined this board a few years back. The ride from Dow 9,000 or was it 8,000? up to Dow 15,000 seems hard to believe. I wish I could have it all over again, except with the capital I have now.

Winston
I want to thank you for the FREE LL trade. I This was the first spread trade for me and promised to join your service if I made money. I closed the spread last week and will be joining next week when we return home.

Captain Mogul
Well I want to thank P. Davis for his style and for the fact that he affirmed my thoughts for a correction. He was right and his confirmation of my bias saved me thousands. Mr. Davis is amoral when it comes to money. He realizes the poor are screwed but we must fight to win. A measure of sarcasm and dark humour and it is great reading. 100% right on the correction.

Chaffey
Phil – I wanted to tell you how much of a privilege it is to learn from your every day. You are a shining beacon in the life of so many investors. You have assembled probably the best group of people in the history of financial blogging and you, yourself have done more to help investors in the last 6 months than all previous financial advisors combined.

StJeanLuc
GMCR – Just bought back my Jan $90 callers on GMCR for a nice $10,000 gain. Thanks for the recommendation Phil! It was nice to cash in on a momo.

Palotay

Archive for the ‘Chart School’ Category

The Power of Simple Moving Averages, Part 2

by Chart School - April 19th, 2018 3:29 am

the-power-of-simple-moving-averages-part-2 In the end the greatest decisions around price action is made near or on a simple moving average.

The trading whales out there do not care about sophisticated RSI math, they care about critical price levels, and most of the time a simple moving average is on or near the price level.

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Sure fundamentals do matter, and so does market timing (entry, stops and exit), here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination of Gann Angles, Cycles and Wyckoff Logic is the best way to secure better timing than most, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years. With our website you can chart any security in the world.

NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net

Investing Quote…

…“It is impossible here to give an adequate idea of the Law of Vibration as I apply it to the markets. However, the lay man may be able to grasp some of the principles when I state that the Law of Vibration is the fundamental law upon which wireless telegraphy, wireless telephones and phonographs are based”…

William D Gann

Novice Traders trade 5 to 10 times too big. They are taking 5 to 10% risks on a trade they should be taking 1 to 2 percent risks.

Bruce Kovner

..”The financial markets generally are unpredictable. So that one has to have different scenarios… The idea that you can actually predict what’s going to happen contradicts my way of looking at the market.”..

George Soros

..”October: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August and February.”..

Mark Twain

..”it is better to have few stocks and to watch them carefully”…

Bernard Burach

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Banks & Big Blue Battered; Bond Yields Bounce; Big Tech, Bullion, & Bitcoin Bid

by Zero Hedge - April 18th, 2018 4:01 pm

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Good is bad, up is down, stocks are safe, war is peace…

The Dow underperformed notably, driven mostly by IBM weakness (swiping 84 points off The Dow), but Trannies surged once again…

Futures show overnight gains, a dump at the open followed by panic-buying… and then a weak close…

Big bank stocks are not loving blockbuster earnings…

Tech is now at its highest relative to financials since 2000…

VIX jumped up to almost 17 across the CBOE Futures auction pre-market, before tumbling lower for the rest of the day…

Stocks and bonds remain decoupled this week…

The Treasury yield curve was in freefall…

Before suddenly bouncing steeper after Europe closed today…

With 2s30s…(down to 58bps today)

And 2s10s… (down to 41bps today)

5s30s is approaching unprecedented territory: it flattened again today for the 9th straight session, to about 29 basis points, before bouncing back

The spread has narrowed 10 consecutive times on only a few occasions… And has never compressed 11 trading days in a row, according to Bloomberg data going back to 1992.

“The yield curve can’t flatten every day,” said Jim Vogel, a strategist at FTN Financial Capital Markets. “But it certainly seems willing to try.”

2Y Treasury-to-3m LIBOR has inverted…

All of which has crushed small banking stocks relative to the market…

Breakevens and Real Yields spiked this afternoon…

The Dollar Index held on to gains for a second…

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Short Opportunity Negated

by Chart School - April 17th, 2018 6:41 pm

Courtesy of Declan

Well, that didn't last long.

The shorting opportunities which offered themselves yesterday didn't last the morning; morning gaps held beyond the first half-hour of trading and bar a small sell-off into the close markets finished higher and above key moving averages and trading channels.

The Dow created a breakout which now offers a potential long play. Stops go on a loss of 24,600. Technicals finished with a new long 'buy' trigger in Stochastics.

The S&P finished above the 3-week consolidation but remains contained inside the 3-month downward channel. Sideline longs will need break of this channel to generate a new 'buy' signal.

The Nasdaq broke out above the 'bearish wedge' but still has a number of supply levels to clear. Watch for a 'bull trap' (a close back inside the bearish wedge).

It was a similar story for the Russell 2000 as it cleared the bearish wedge. The larger triangle consolidation is of greater significance although the new net bullish turn in technicals following the 'buy' trigger in the +DI/-DI. However, not all technicals are doing well as relative performance against the Nasdaq shifts back towards Tech indices.

For tomorrow, bulls can look to the breakout in the Dow Jones Index although the tag of a similiar channel in the S&P may ironically prove a better play for shorts. Keep a watchful eye on the Russell 2000 as it approaches triangle resistance.

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VIX Crashes To A 14 Handle

by Zero Hedge - April 17th, 2018 1:15 pm

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

If only there was an ETF that enable traders to place leveraged bets on lower volatility…

VIX has tumbled for 5 straight days, crashing back to a 14 handle for the first time since March 9th…

And as the cost of equity protection tumbles, the cost of High yield bond protection has collapsed…

Back to the old normal.

One quick question – bank trading revenues jumped as VIX rose above 20… so what happens when VIX tumbles back to single-digits again?

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RTT browsing latest..

by Chart School - April 17th, 2018 2:30 am

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

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