Archive for the ‘Chart School’ Category

Silver Miners; Can They Bounce From This Key Support Test?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Silver Miners (SIL) have lost over 50% since the highs back in 2016. Is this large of a decline enough to present a buying opportunity?

No doubt the multi-year trend for SIL remains down at this time. The long-term decline and the decline over the past few months has it testing last years lows again at (1).

While testing the lows it finds itself at the apex of a falling wedge pattern at (1). Is a “Double Bottom” being attempted by SIL at the 2018 lows? In my humble opinion, it is too soon to tell, yet possible.

What would it take to suggest that a short-term counter-trend rally is taking shape? The first step would be to break above the top of the falling wedge pattern.

What would it take to send a renewed bearish message from SIL? A support failure at (1)!

What SIL does in the next couple of weeks could send an important message to Silver and Gold Miners (GDX)!!!

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





S&P and Dow Forming Bullish Cup & Handle Patterns?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Are the S&P and Dow forming positive “Cup & Handle” patterns over the past 8-months? Bulls sure hope so!

A cup and handle price pattern is a technical indicator that resembles a cup and handle where the cup is in the shape of a “U” and the handle has a slight downward drift. The right-hand side of the pattern typically has low trading volume, and may be as short as seven weeks or as long as 65 weeks, writes James Chen of Investopedia.

Keep this in mind, the Cup & Handle patterns is a bullish continuation pattern.

Two questions come to mind when looking at these patterns. Did a double top take place and will an upside breakout of the handle take place?

Bulls are hoping that an upside breakout of the handle takes place, followed by a breakout above the top of the cup pattern.

What would reduce the odds that this is a bullish pattern? A break below the March lows by both ETF’s!

The price action over the next couple of weeks will tell us a good deal about this pattern.

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Will S&P 500 Peak At Historic Kiss of Resistance In May?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

The economic recovery and ensuing bull market off the 2009 financial crisis lows has been one of the longest in history.

And over that stretch of time, the S&P 500 Index has reached technical milestones. While making new all-time highs, the index rallied past big round numbers like 2000 and 2500, and Fibonacci extension 161.8 before reaching its Fibonacci 261.8% level, based upon the 2007 highs and 2009 lows.

In the process of reaching the 261.8 Fibonacci extension, the S&P 500 saw its momentum slow and the S&P 500 broke its long-term uptrend line (1).

Over the past 18 months, the index has carved out 3 peaks (of sorts). And, in doing so, momentum has produced a lower high at each (2).

The latest peak comes at a “kiss” of the underside of that long-term uptrend line. And the recent selloff has the S&P 500 breaking below its short-term rising uptrend line off the December 2018 lows. This isn’t a good look for the market.

Stock market bulls do not want to see selling accelerate here, they want to see a breakout above the 261% level!!! If the S&P breaks above the 261% level, a STRONG bullish message would be sent!

This article was first written for See It Markets.com. To see original post CLICK HERE.

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

rtt-browsing-latestPlease review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.

Date Found: Monday, 07 January 2019, 02:21:46 AM

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Comment: And if stocks fall, US house holds can afford USTs Ouch!

Date Found: Monday, 07 January 2019, 02:28:30 AM

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Comment: Why is President Trump So Desperate for The US Stock Markets to Go Back Up? China in deep sh*t! youtu.be/WPg5wndwcEU

Date Found: Tuesday, 08 January 2019, 12:08:37 PM

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Comment: Keiser Report , hard facts on the FED and stock market youtu.be/L2s_L41XIp4

Date Found: Thursday, 10 January 2019, 12:31:02 PM

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Comment: Danielle DiMartino Booth of Quill Intelligence Powell Flip Flop youtu.be/uq15zEnj7LI

Date Found: Thursday, 10 January 2019, 08:21:46 PM

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Comment: January 2019 Federal Reserve Balance Sheet Update youtu.be/SiNfRysfIjM

Date Found: Friday, 11 January 2019, 06:24:32 PM

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Comment: This Is A Bear Market (w/ Victor Sperandeo) | Interview | Real Vision™ 100% Confidence, in his view (subject to QE99) youtu.be/vVAeJuVRQwU

Date Found: Monday, 14 January 2019, 08:36:46 PM

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Comment: Central bank BOOM and BUST!

Date Found: Monday, 14 January 2019, 08:37:32 PM

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Comment: Global recession (unless world wide QE) arriving in 2019

Date Found: Monday, 14 January 2019, 08:38:35 PM

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Comment: Richard Wyckoff ..”I love bases”..

Date Found: Tuesday, 15 January 2019, 02:28:04 AM

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Australia to enter a very sad period – Update

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

australia-to-enter-a-very-sad-period---updateNothing has changed for the better, Aussie. It is just who will be last through the market ‘has changed’ gate.

Previous posts, here.

Reminder, this is how markets work. The masses are the uniformed herds moving into the next market phase. 

Readtheticker.com blog sounded the ANZAC alarm over 18 months ago. Those who follow this blog are better informed than most. [ RTT Plus subscribers get the latest information, and more importantly the possibility of a US recession ]. 

First, a fun fact: Economic slumps are quite common in the first 3 years of a new decade: 1973/4, 1982/3, 1991, 2002/3 were all US recessions. It is 2019, so 2020 – 2023 is a ripe window for economic trouble. 

It seems the NZ Reserve Bank has flicked the panic switch. Listen carefully to video below as a perfect storm is near: ANZAC demographics risk, debt levels, spooked buyers, spooked banks.

Not mentioned in the video below is the coming Asian region economic slump on the back of TRUMP’s attack on China’s export economy. Guess who has being living of the massive Chinese demand. Well, that would be AUS and NZD (Just watch the $AUD and $NZD. The currency boys know what is coming).

Is this just the beginning?

RTT Comment: One speaker in the video jokes about an investment in bitcoin, of course putting all your funds in one asset class (i.e all in housing, all in stocks, all in bitcoin) is just as stupid. Be advised, those who can use debt free speculation must consult a clever and informed investment adviser. 

Below are AORD charts from prior posts (Price has not been updated, since Feb 2019), suggested a big change is coming. 

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AORD



And…

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AORD

IDEA: Do not be the last sheep through the economic gate of change! 


Fundamentals are important, and so is market timing, here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination
of Gann Angles,
Cycles,

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Dow Jones Industrials Triple Topping At Key Fib Price Level?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

The 4-month stock market rally to start 2019 brought the Dow Jones Industrial Average within 1 percent of its all-time highs made in 2018.

This strong move higher has bulls excited about a new bullish wave higher that will lead to new all-time highs.

But that cannot occur until the Dow Industrials decisively break out to new highs.

And if bears have their way, this test of resistance will form the third and final top within a bearish triple top formation.

At a minimum, this price area looks to be strong resistance. This triple top testing area also marks the 261.8 Fibonacci price extension.

A pullback or correction from this level would not be uncommon. Bulls want a breakout, bears want a triple top. Let’s see how it plays out! Stay tuned!

This article was first written for See It Markets.com. To see original post CLICK HERE

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Weekly Market Recap May 12, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

Trade deal worries between China and the U.S. dominated the headlines all week.   A large gap down Monday morning due to some Trump tweets was mostly fended off as buyers came in hot and heavy.   A significant selloff ensued Tuesday.   The rest of the week ended up choppy but without significant end of day moves up or down.

Trump’s tweet Sunday night was:

For 10 months, China has been paying Tariffs to the USA of 25% on 50 Billion Dollars of High Tech, and 10% on 200 Billion Dollars of other goods. These payments are partially responsible for our great economic results. The 10% will go up to 25% on Friday. 325 Billions Dollars….

Then Friday those tariffs were announced as happening although there will be a grace period before they are instituted which market watchers believe is to allow time for the late stages of this trade agreement to continue.

“Goods currently in transit to the U.S. from China aren’t subject to the new 25% tariffs, just the old 10% tariff. That grace period was not included in previous rounds of tariffs and is likely an olive branch of sorts to the Chinese side,” Tom Essaye, president of the Sevens Report wrote. “Given shipping times, goods sent from China today will take two weeks or so to reach the U.S., so if a trade deal is stuck in that time frame, the pain of the 25% tariffs will never be felt.”

It was a poor week for the Chinese market.

Uber (UBER) IPO’d Friday and fell below the initial IPO price of $45.

No major economic news this week.

For the week, the S&P 500 fell 2.2% and the NASDAQ 3% – that broke a 6 week winning streak for the NASDAQ.

Here is the 5 day weekly intraday chart of the S&P 500 … via Jill Mislinski.

The week ahead…

We are through the bulk of earnings season but still some heavy hitters such as Walmart (WMT) are due soon.

Wednesday the retail sales report for April will be released, which could give investors a clue as to whether the slump that began in December was a temporary blip or the beginning of a worrisome trend.

Obviously the trade deal will continue to be a central focus.

Index charts:

Short term: The S&P 500…
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When Does Market-Timing Work?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

By Nick Maggiulli via OfDollarsAndData.com

I know you have probably heard it all before:

You can’t time the market.  Give up.  It’s too hard.

While I don’t disagree with this advice, it doesn’t actually address what conditions you would need to meet in order to be a successful market timer (without using quantitative approaches).  So instead of writing off market timing, let’s ask, “When does market timing work?”

I looked into this, using the S&P 500 (with dividends) since 1990, and discovered that to succeed as a market timer you would have to:

  1. Know when the market is about to decline by some threshold amount (i.e. 20% or more).

  2. Act on this knowledge by selling within 250 trading days (1 year) of the top and re-buying within 250 trading days of the absolute bottom.

If we generalize this, successful market timing requires the ability to anticipate future declines and to act on them within a reasonable time frame.  It doesn’t mean that you have to know exactly when the top/bottom is, but it does mean that you need to have a general sense of the market’s direction in the near future.

While this conclusion might seem obvious to you, what isn’t obvious is how much you can miss the top/bottom while still outperforming Buy & Hold.  So, let’s dig in to find out.

To start, we will assume that you are invested in the S&P 500 and you never want to lose 20% (or more) of your money.  This implies that you needed to miss the two major crashes (Dot Com Bubble and GFC) that have occurred since 1990:

With perfect timing, you could have avoided these crashes by selling at the top, moving to cash and then re-buying at the bottom.  If you had done this perfectly, $1 invested in 1990 would have grown to $64 (excluding inflation, taxes, and transaction costs), compared to only $15 for Buy & Hold (note the log scale on the y-axis):


continue reading





S&P and Dow Both Triple Topping? Possible Says Joe

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Could the Dow and the S&P both be triple topping at the same time? Possible says Joe Friday

This 2-pack looks at the Dow ETF (DIA) and the Equal Weight S&P ETF (SPY) over the past 18-months.

Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am- Each could be triple topping at the January 2018 highs and breaking below short-term support this week!

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Are Oil Prices Sending a Bearish Signal to the Stock Market?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Crude oil prices tend to offer a good general barometer for the global economy. More specifically, it is the trend of crude oil that matters.

When demand is high and the economy is strong, crude oil prices tend to move higher… and the trend tends to be “up”. And this tends to be a tailwind for the stock market. When crude oil prices head lower, it is bearish and is a headwind for the stock market.

In today’s chart, we examine this theory by charting the S&P 500 Index next to Crude Oil prices.

Although the correlation isn’t perfect, it does work as a good confirmation indicator.

As you can see in the chart below, both the S&P 500 and crude oil peaked in September together, bottomed in December together, and appear to be peaking together this spring. Both broke near-term support and fell out of rising wedge patterns, a bearish near-term signal for investors.

Stock bulls may be getting an important message from Crude Oil of late!

This article was first written for See It Markets.com. To see original post CLICK HERE

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





 
 
 

Phil's Favorites

Behold, the power of compounding! And fall to your knees in the presence of its invincibility!

 

Behold, the power of compounding! And fall to your knees in the presence of its invincibility!

Okay, this one was really fun to make. I hope you like it. Make sure to let my bosses at CNBC know and maybe they’ll let me make more of these!

Reply to this tweet:

Here it is – the world premiere of my new video:

How to Double Your Money in the Market

Hope you love it! https://t.co/yqRDtS32O5...



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Zero Hedge

Latest China Tariffs Will Cost American Households $831 Per Year, Fed Says

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

It's tempting to believe President Trump's insistence that Chinese companies will bear the costs of US tariffs, but as a chorus of emergent trade experts have pointed out, this simply isn't true.

American consumers will bear at least some of the costs of the new tariffs, though the extent will depend on how companies react to the new taxes (that is, whether they will pass it on to consumers, tolerate the gross margin hit, or decide to rejigger their supply chains).

...



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Insider Scoop

Jefferies Sees 60-Percent Upside In Aphria Shares, Says Buy The Dip

Courtesy of Benzinga.

After a red-hot start to 2019, Canadian cannabis producer Aphria Inc (NYSE: APHA) has run out of steam, tumbling more than 31 percent in the past three months.

Despite the recent weakness, one Wall Street analyst said Friday that the stock has 30-percent upside potential. 

The Analyst

Jefferies analyst ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

DAX (Germany) About To Send A Bearish Message To The S&P 500?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Is the DAX index from Germany about to send a bearish message to stocks in Europe and the States? Sure could!

This chart looks at the DAX over the past 9-years. It’s spent the majority of the past 8-years inside of rising channel (1), creating a series of higher lows and higher highs.

It looks to have created a “Double Top” as it was kissing the underside of the rising channel last year at (2).

After creating the potential double top, the DAX index has continued to create a series of lower highs, while experiencing a bearish divergence with the S...



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Chart School

Brexit Joke - Cant be serious all the time

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Alistair Williams comedian nails it, thank god for good humour! Prime Minister May the negotiator. Not!


Alistair Williams Comedian youtube

This is a classic! ha!







Fundamentals are important, and so is market timing, here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination of Gann Angles, ...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream - the battle is on to bring them under global control

 

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream – the battle is on to bring them under global control

The high seas are getting lower. dianemeise

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

The 21st-century revolutionaries who have dominated cryptocurrencies are having to move over. Mainstream financial institutions are adopting these assets and the blockchain technology that enables them, in what ...



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Biotech

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

A map of DNA with the double helix colored blue, the landmarks in green, and the start points for copying the molecule in red. David Gilbert/Kyle Klein, CC BY-ND

Courtesy of David M. Gilbert, Florida State University

...



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ValueWalk

More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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