Archive for the ‘Chart School’ Category

Chart o’ the Day: Where the bears are in trouble

 

Chart o’ the Day: Where the bears are in trouble

Courtesy of 

My pal JC Parets has taught me a lot about technical analysis over the years and I always read his stuff when it comes out. You can get his email blasts too by signing up at AllStarCharts.com.

Anyway, here’s his read of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, with a monthly zoom-out…

Let’s start with Papa Dow. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has gone nowhere for 20 months. Flat for over a year and a half:

Whenever in doubt zoom out. Here is a much longer-term view to really help put things in perspective. All things considered, this 20 month consolidation is perfectly symmetrical with the prior 20 years. What happens if we clear 27000 and hold it? It looks like a lot of upside to me. All of this is consistent with this correction since January 2018 being a cyclical bear market within a longer-term structural bull market. In other words, a shorter-term correction within a longer-term uptrend. That seems perfectly fair…If we’re above 27000, stubborn bears are going to be in a lot of trouble.

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The Most Important Monthly Charts In The World (All Star Charts)





Metals Indicator Experiencing Multi-Year Breakout!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Investors that are Bullish Silver or Gold want to see the Silver/Gold ratio heading higher and breaking above key resistance levels.

Early this month they are receiving a long-awaited bullish message!

The Silver/Gold ratio has created a series of lower highs and lower lows since its peak, 8-years ago this month.

The decline in the ratio took it down to test its 1992 lows at (1), which was a very important support test. After hitting this support level, the ratio has turned higher.

Last month the ratio closed a small percent above the falling resistance at (2). Early this month the ratio continues to break further above falling resistance at (2), which historically sends a bullish message to both Silver and Gold.

If you are interested in pattern analysis on Gold, Silver, Miners, and Copper, you will find our weekly metals reports of benefit. Click Here to see sign up details.

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

rtt-browsing-latestPlease review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.

Date Found: Monday, 25 March 2019, 02:25:19 AM

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Comment:
Greyerz – The Most Important Chart Of This Century And What Will Take The World By Surprise | King World News

Date Found: Monday, 25 March 2019, 02:41:58 AM

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Comment:
“New” World Order Criminal Bankers Caused the American Revolution : bankers are pirates youtu.be/eqmMlWbKwIA

Date Found: Tuesday, 26 March 2019, 11:06:18 PM

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Comment:
It isn’t foreign buyers who are funding US gov deficit right now, it is domestic investors. Foreign buyers haven’t been big source of demand for Treasury since 2015. Deutsche Bank

Date Found: Thursday, 28 March 2019, 01:47:28 AM

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Comment:
If you can not sell stuff, stocks build up, its a slow down folks

Date Found: Thursday, 28 March 2019, 05:05:51 PM

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Comment:
Its a long wait! But its coming!

Date Found: Thursday, 28 March 2019, 10:31:25 PM

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The $1 Trillion Devil in the Details youtu.be/CZhPeKsAnu0

Date Found: Saturday, 30 March 2019, 04:39:27 PM

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Comment:
John P. Hussman on Twitter: “As a standalone indicator, I’ve never viewed the yield curve as particularly timely or dependable, but in a hypervalued market that’s rolling over near record highs, you may want to pay attention. In those conditions, investors have far less time than they imagine.… t.co/asIBo4xKB8″;

Date Found: Tuesday, 02 April 2019, 03:23:32 AM

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THE ENDGAME: All Hell Is About…
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Gold Fundamentals and Wyckoff Talk

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

gold-fundamentals-and-wyckoff-talkA golden canary represents a rising gold price suggesting everything is not awesome and something may just break.





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Chart in video showing expected consolidations after a basing period.





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Gold Monthly





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of Gann Angles,
Cycles,
Wyckoff and
Ney logic
is the best way to secure better timing than most, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years. To help you applying Richard Wyckoff and Richard Ney logic
a wealth of knowledge is available via our RTT Plus membership.




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Investing Quote…



…“I believe that anyone who is intelligent, conscientious, and willing to put in the necessary time can be successful on Wall Street.  As long as they realize the market is a business like any other business, they have a good chance to prosper.”…



Jesse Livermore





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Bernard Baruch





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Spike Milligan





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Paul Samuelson











S&P500 Candlestick Pattern On Friday Signals Price Breakdown

Courtesy of Technical Traders

As we close out the week and watched the markets trade in a rotational price manner, it became very clear to us that the patterns setting up in price continue to support our overall analysis of the markets and the potential for a bigger downside price move.  We issued a call that an August 19th breakdown was expected on or near the trigger date (Aug 19).  We’ve taken some heat from our followers and readers regarding this call and the fact that the markets have yet to really breakdown below current support levels.

As we’ve learned from our experience and previous analysis/calls – the markets can continue to act in ways that run counter to our analysis for much longer and in a much more irrational manner than we can survive the risks associated with any irrational price moves.  Yet, at this point, we don’t see anything irrational in the markets – we see opportunity.

Until price confirms otherwise, our believe is that price will attempt to move lower – establishing new lows. Before we get into the details, be sure to opt-in to our Free Market Forecast and Trade Ideas Newsletter

Important Japanese Candlestick Reversal Patterns

The Doji Star and Shooting Star Japanese Candlestick patterns are part of a unique group that identifies potential price reversals, support/resistance and can often build into other types of patterns.  Our belief is these setups in the current chart will eventually create an Evening Star formation with a downside price move early next week.  This type of pattern would confirm resistance near the body of the current Doji or Shooting Star candlestick and also confirm our analysis that a price breakdown should continue.


SP500 – ES Daily Chart Highlights the Doji Reversal Pattern

This ES Daily chart highlights the Doji pattern created by the close of Friday trading near 2923.75.  The fact that price narrowed on Friday into a Doji pattern forming below the previous highs suggests general weakness in price and a possibility that early next week we may see price breakdown to complete a Harami or Doji Star Reversal Pattern.


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Interest Rates And Banks At Critical Inflection Points, Says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

In the past 5-weeks, 10-Year Yields have declined 26%, 5-year yields are down 24% and 2-year yields are down 17%. Is there more of a decline in yields to come?

How would stocks react if yields rally off support? Could bank start reflecting relative strength if yields rally here?

This chart reflects that the swift declines of late have 2, 5 & 10-year yields testing 7-year support at each (1).

As yields are testing long-term support the Bank Index (BKX) is doing the same thing (lower right chart).

Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am; Stocks in the states and around the world are hopeful that yields and banks rally off these long-term support levels. 

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Gold Indicator Facing Long-Term Breakout Level

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Gold/Metals bulls want to pay attention to how this indicator handles a current breakout test!

This chart looks at the Gold/Dollar ratio on a weekly basis over the past decade.

The ratio created a falling channel (A) from 2011 to 2013. Once support broke Gold continued to be much weaker than the US Dollar for a few years.

The ratio started creating a rising channel (B) in 2016/2017, as higher lows started forming. These higher lows reflected that Gold was outperforming the US Dollar.

The rally over the past couple of years has the ratio testing the top of rising channel (B) and the underside of falling channel (A) at (1).

It appears that a very important long-term breakout test is in play currently, with momentum at the highest level in 8-years.

How the ratio handles this breakout test will send Gold and Silver a very important long-term message.

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Precious Metals About To Pull A Crazy Ivan

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Nearly a month ago, we authored our “Crazy Ivan” research post suggesting that precious metals were about to pull a massive “crazy price move” while the US and Global markets breakdown in an attempt to revalue risk, support, resistance, and other unknown factors trying to “revalue” price to more suitable levels given future expectations.

The moves in Gold and Silver over the past 4+ weeks has been incredible.  The biggest surprise is in silver, even though we called this move as well.  The way precious metals prices transition through periods of risk or fear is that Gold increases in value as fear drives investors into Gold.  Whereas, Silver, the lesser shiny metal, which has seen prices further depressed over the past 5+ years, attempts to revert to a less depressed “fair value” to Gold.  This process happens every time Gold begins to move substantially higher and results in an incredible opportunity for Silver traders. But first, be sure to opt-in to our free market forecast newsletter

What is the Crazy Ivan event?  It is our belief that Gold and Silver will attempt to rally well beyond levels most analysts have been predicting for this year.  In fact, we believe Gold could be trading above $1750+ before the end of 2019 because of this Crazy Ivan event that we believe is unfolding right now.  This event is based on our belief that a massive shift in the capital will take place as soon as the US major indexes break below key support.  Once this support is broken, we believe the Crazy Ivan event will really begin to take form.

Gold Weekly Price Chart

Our research team believes Gold will have one last period where the price will pause before attempting to rally much further.  In fact, we believe Gold will potentially retrace to levels near or below $1500 one last time before the real Crazy Ivan event is unleashed.  This means we should be patient and wait for the next setup in Gold and Silver before jumping into any new trades.

Gold should pause near $1600, roll a…
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Metals Bulls Receiving Long-Awaited Positive Message?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Are metals bulls about to receive a long-awaited positive message? It won’t take long to find out based upon this chart!

This chart looks at the Silver/Gold ratio on a monthly basis since the early 1980s. Metals bulls historically want to see this ratio moving higher, to send Gold & Silver a positive message.

The ratio has been in a funk since it peaked in 2011. The eight-year decline has driven the ratio down to the lowest level in 28-years.

A bullish reversal pattern took place two months ago while testing this 28-year support level at (1). The rally of late has it testing 3-year falling resistance at (2).

If the ratio breaks out at (2), a long-awaited short-term bullish message will be sent to Silver and Gold bulls!

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





S&P 500 Index Must Bounce Here Or Hold On Tight!

Courtesy of Technical Traders

The fragility of the markets can not be underestimated at this time. Our July predictions regarding a market top and an August 19th (or near) breakdown price move have been spot on.  

Our thoughts on the market: First we believe the US and Global markets are setting up for a broad price sell-off/reversion move. This means we believe the US and Global stock markets could move lower and contract by relatively large percent levels (15% to 25% or more) in the coming months.

Second, we believe this reversion process is related to a number of factors which we’ve highlighted in previous research posts. The US Presidential Election cycle (2020) is one factor. The continued US/China trade war is another factor. The slowing global economy is yet another factor, and the concerns regarding the EU, BREXIT and continuing global economic activity are yet more factors.

Third, we have completed a massive phase in the global markets after the 2008 market crisis that includes the bottoming phase, the revaluation phase, the asset inflation phase, and the asset valuation maturity phase which we are currently in now.  The past 9+ years has resulted in an incredible recovery process that is now very mature.

Lastly, we believe the combination of these factors and the process of moving forward through the normal economic cycles related to a mature global asset valuation phase would result in a fairly common process of a “price reversion” which is an attempt to allow prices to explore new lower levels to identify “true value” before beginning a new phase of price inflation.

We’ve been sharing one of our favorite price analysis tools with our followers, the Fibonacci price theory.  This theory suggests that price MUST ALWAYS attempt to seek out new highs and/or new lows. If the prices can’t move higher to seek out new highs (because of some fundamental or economic reason or event – like the end of a mature economic price inflation cycle), then they would attempt to move lower and establish some new LOW PRICE level as a process of “revaluing” asset prices. 


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Zero Hedge

Yuan Extends Losses After China Macro Data Disappoints

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

China's yuan extended its early losses, testing down to the fix after headline economic data disappointed across the board.

  • Industrial Production rose just 5.6% YTD YoY (below the +5.7% exp and down from +5.8% prior)

  • Retail Sales rose just 7.5% YoY (below the +7.9% exp and down from +7.6% prior)

  • Fixed Asset Investments rose just 5.5% YTD YoY (below the +5.7% exp and down from +5.7% prior)

  • Property Investment rose just 10.5% YTD YoY (down from +1...



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Phil's Favorites

Black Hole Investing

 

Black Hole Investing

Courtesy of John Mauldin, Thoughts from the Frontline 

Scientists say the rules change in a cosmic “black hole” at what astrophysicists call the event horizon. How do they know that? Not by observation, since what happens in there is, by definition, un-seeable. They infer it from the surroundings, which say that the mathematics of the universe as we understand them change at the event horizon.

Or maybe not. One theory says we are all inside a black hole right now. That could possibly explain a few things about central bank policy. ...



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The Technical Traders

Crude Oil Setting Up For A Downside Price Rotation

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Crude Oil has been trading in a fairly narrow range since mid-August – between $52 and $57 ppb.  Our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system suggested the downside price move in late July/early August was expected and the current support aligns very well with our ADL predictions of higher price rotation throughout most of September/October.  Please take a minute to review the original research post below :

July 10, 2019: ...



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Insider Scoop

The Street Reacts To Kroger's Q2 With Mixed Takeaways

Courtesy of Benzinga

Kroger Co (NYSE: KR) reported second-quarter results that came in better than expected. The earnings beat may have been overshadowed by management's decision to remove its prior guidance of $400 million in incremental EBIT by fiscal 2021.

Q2 A Mix Of Positives And Negativ...

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Chart School

Dow to 38,000 by 2022

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

President Trump said the Dow would be 10,000 points higher if it was not for the FED. In truth if the Dow breaks to new all time highs the next stop is 38,000 and he may be proven correct. Is there an election on? 

Of course who knows? But lets continue. 

The fundamentals behind this may be:

  • A good deal with China.
  • The FED turning on easy money with further rate cuts (very strange with a market near all time highs). FOMC Sept 17th well tell us more.
  • The above turbo charging stock buy backs.
  • Off shore money running out of foreign equity markets in to US markets (see note1).

Note1: Of course this has happened before, one particular time was just before O...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Bond Yields Due For Rally After Declining More Than 1987 Stock Crash

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

U.S. Treasury Bond Yields – 2, 5, 10, 30 Year Durations

The past year has seen treasury bond yields decline sharply, yet in an orderly fashion.

This has spurred recession concerns for much of 2019. Needless to say, it’s a confusing time for investors.

In today’s chart of the day, we look at a longer-term view of the 2, 5, 10, and 30-year treasury bond yields.

Short to long term bond yields are all testing 7 to 10-year support levels as momentum is at the lowest levels in a decade.

A yield rally is likely due across the board after a recent decline that was bigger than the stock crash in 1987!

If yields fail to ral...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Nonfarm Payrolls Not Seasonally Adjusted Tell the Real Story - Unspinning Wall Street™

Courtesy of Lee Adler

Not seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls, that is, the actual numbers, give us a truer picture of the jobs market than the seasonally adjusted garbage that Wall Street spews.

Friday’s seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls jobs headline numbers disappointed investors with slower than expected growth. But was it really that bad?

Here’s How The Street Spun It – Wall Street Journal Modest August Job Growth Shows Economy Expanding, but Slowly

Employers added 130,000 nonfarm jobs, jobless rate held steady at 3.7%

U.S. employment grew only modestly in August, suggesting that a global economic slowdown isn’t driving the U.S. into recession but has dente...



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Digital Currencies

China Crypto Miners Wiped Out By Flood; Bitcoin Hash Rate Hits ATHs

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Last week, a devastating rainstorm in China's Sichuan province triggered mudslides, forcing local hydropower plants and cryptocurrency miners to halt operations, reported CoinDesk.

Torrential rains flooded some parts of Sichuan's mountainous Aba prefecture last Monday, with mudslides seen across 17 counties in the area, according to local government posts on Weibo. 

One of the worst-hit areas was Wenchuan county, ...



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Biotech

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Courtesy of  , Visual Capitalist

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

As evidence of cannabis’ many benefits mounts, so does the interest from the global pharmaceutical industry, known as Big Pharma. The entrance of such behemoths will radically transform the cannabis industry—once heavily stigmatized, it is now a potentially game-changing source of growth for countless co...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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