Archive for the ‘BNN Money Talk’ Category

The PhilStockWorld.com Money Talk Portfolio Review – Apr 24, 2019

I'll be on BNN's (Bloomberg Canada) Money Talk tonight at 7pm.

As usual, we will be reviewing our Money Talk Portfolio, which we initiated back on Sept 6th, 2017 to track the trade ideas we would introduce, live on the show, about once each quarter.  The idea of the portfolio was to select highly leveraged, high-probability trades that did not have to be adjusted very often (or at all) and, so far, it's been a tremendous success with our initial $50,000 turning into a lovely $127,663 (up 155.3%) at yesterday's close, about 18 months after we got started.

We recently reviewed the MTP back on Feb 15th and, at the time, the portfolio was at $88,922 with, of course, the exact same positions – as I hadn't been on the show since Jan.  We did send out an alert (our first ever) to dump GE shortly after that – those alerts go out free of charge on Twitter, Facebook, Seeking Alpha, etc to make sure they were available to all so make sure you follow those feeds.    Note that, for each position, we clearly define our expectations and, overall, we expected our positions to make another $76,638 at the time but we've already made another $38,741 (43%) – which is way too fast – so we have to be careful that some of our positions are overbought already.  

That's right as FUNDAMENTAL VALUE INVESTORS we believe that stocks – even the ones we like – can be too expensive, as well as too cheap.  When they are too cheap, we buy them – when they are too expensive, we sell them.  It sounds logical but how many traders actually do it when the time comes?  

Now, let's take a fresh look at what we have:

  • Alaska Airlines (ALK) – Just a short put that nets us in for $51.80.  We're not worried about it.  Expect to gain the full $4,100 so $2,650 left to gain.
  • Nasdaq Ultra-Short ETF (SQQQ) - A hedge we expect to lose on and so far, so good as we're down about $4,000 with just $450 in value left.  Still, we do need


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The PhilStockWorld.com Money Talk Portfolio Review – Jan 30, 2019

I'll be on BNN's Money Talk tonight at 7pm

For the past year, we've been keeping a Money Talk Portfolio, which we only adjust live on their show, once per quarter so we have to keep it well-balanced and self-hedging.  We rode out the recent downturn with style as our last review, on Oct 24th (the last time I was on the show) we were at $95,645, up $45,645 (91.3%) from our $50,000 start and we projected that our remaining positions would gain $70,015 by Jan, 2021 (the time-frame for our spreads). 

Not content with that, we added two new trades (MU and MJ) and one hedge (TZA and CAT), adding another $50,000 of upside potential over the same time-frame.  So, with $120,000 of upside potential over the next 24 months, we expect to make about $5,000 per month but the market took a nasty downturn and we're only just recovering so I'm sorry to report that we're only up to $105,845, which is up $55,845 (111.7%) and "only" up $10,200 (20.4%) in the past 3 months.  

We were unable to make adjustments during the downturn, which we did call very well in our Live Member Portfolios (see our Jan 21st Portfolio Review), so the performance is not quite as good as our Live Trading Portfolios but it's the perfect portfolio for less active traders, who just like to check on their progress every few months.  As of yesterday's close, our positions were:

As you can see, the MJ trade we added during the October show has blasted higher and is up $6,550 already but it's a $40,000 spread we had intended to make $38,500 on so up $6,550 in a quarter is what we call "on track" and, even as a new trade, the net is still just $8,050 so the upside is $31,950 (396%) if MJ is over $45 in 2021.  

And that, by the way, is how we review our portfolios.  You should always know how much you expect to gain from every one of your trades and options allow us to know not just how much but WHEN we expect to realize our gains – so it's…
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The PhilStockWorld.com Money Talk Portfolio – October 24, 2018

Speaking of trading, I am scheduled to be on BNN's Money Talk tonight at 7:30 which means it's time to adjust our Money Talk Portfolio.  We did a review last Thursday and the Portfolio was at $97,037 with the S&P at 2,802 and, as of yesterday's close, we had dropped $1,394 to $95,645 but that's still up $45,645 (91.3%) for the year so not terrible but it lets us know we need to do a bit more to lock in the gains (ie. more hedges).  

  • ALK – A short put we are confident in, should gain another $3,275 at maturity.  
  • SQQQ – A good hedge that's $6,760 in the money but only showing net $3,450 out of a $10,000 potential.  Hopefully we lose the $3,450 because the market does well as it's simply insurance and not a bet.  
  • ABX – A long-term bet on gold that pays up to $12,500 and is currently on track at net $2,225 so good for a new trade with another $10,275 (460%) left to gain at $15.  



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The PhilStockWorld.com Money Talk Portfolio – September 24, 2018

One year anniversary for the Money Talk Portfolio and we can't make any adjustments (as I only do them on the show) so here it is.  We haven't looked at it since I did the show back in July (17th) and we were at $84,300 and, since then, we've moved to $89,287 so up 78.6% for the year.  Keep in mind we went to much more CASH!!! last time as I didn't want to stay open for the summer and we have dogs like WPM, ABX, LB and GE left in the portfolio but, BECAUSE we keep plugging away and we keep selling premium – we just keep making profits!  

I would certainly encourage you to go back and read the last review and contemplate how conservatively we play this ultra low-touch (once a quarter, never in between) portfolio.  All year long we simply take off the maturing winners and add a new play each Q and, despite several very disappointing stocks – we make money anyway because we keep selling premium and we take non-greedy exits.

In fact, that $24,475 profit on short WPM calls was the short leg of a long spread but we CASHED out the long leg because $22 was the top of our expected range.  So we got more than the full expected profit on the long end and now we owe nothing to the short caller.  The new bull call spread was only set up to cover the short 50 calls, we didn't expect WPM to go that high.

All in all, I'm very happy with this portfolio – despite the restrictions. 





The PhilStockWorld.com MoneyTalk Portfolio – August 20, 2018

BNN Money Talk portfolio - update 8/20/2018

We already have plenty of downside bets on our portfolios and, since Options expired on Friday, let's have a look at our hedge in the context of our public Money Talk Portfolio, which we feature on BNN's Money Talk about once a quarter.  We only make changes on the show, so it's a very low-touch portfolio and we're coming up on the one year anniversary on 9/6, as we only begin doing this one year ago but, already, the portfolio is up 86.8% from $50,000 to $93,370 as of Friday's close. 

Remember – every single trade AND adjustment was announced live, on TV, before they were made in the portfolio.  We're simply showing people how to use our Be the House – NOT the Gambler techiques and hedging strategies in real-time market situations:

We cashed out a lot of winners in July as I was too nervous about the summer markets to leave what were, as the time, $34,300 worth of gains on the table and we can't make any adjustments until the next time I'm on the show in September – so better safe than sorry…  We had $34,490 in cash at the time and, as you can see, we raised our cash holdings to $85,740 (91.8% of the portfolio's value) but we still managed to gain another $9,070 from our remaining positions in the past 30 days.  You do not need to keep a lot of cash in the market to make great gains if you know how to properly apply leverage! 

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Phil on MoneyTalk

 

MoneyTalk: Why markets aren't rattled by Trump's troubles

President Donald Trump has stirred up controversy around the world after meeting with NATO allies and Russia's Vladimir Putin. Yet, U.S. markets are still not far off their record highs. Phil Davis, options strategist and founder of philstockworld.com weighs in on how he's playing the market with options.

[In the next clip], Phil Davis discusses his trade strategy and how options can be used in the current market conditions.





The PhilStockWorld.com MoneyTalk Portfolio – June 17, 2018 update

Money Talk Portfolio Review:   I am doing the show tomorrow so I have to put this together first.  Sadly, we dropped a lot since our June 14th review, when we were at $92,727 (85.5%) but now down to $84,300 (68.6%), mostly due to LB's pullback and our inability to roll SQQQ like we did in the STP/OOP.  Nonetheless, up 68.6% since Sept doesn't suck and now we can make some adjustments! 

I'm a bit concerned about the rest of the summer so we're going to be cautious – especially with these gains to lock in. 

  • ALK – I'm very confident in the next $51.80 entry so no change here.  Earnings are 7/26 so we'll watch those carefully but expectations are low (about $1.65) and they made $2.51 last Q2, so I'm only worried about guidance.  Anticipate making $3,725 more on this one.
  • IMAX – Lots of blockbusters ahead should be good for them but this spread is well in the money and can be cashed out for $8.80/4.10 for net $4.70 ($9,400) out of a possible $5 so it's not worth the risk as we can't make interim adjustments so we'll take the profit off the table.  
  • SQQQ – We still need a hedge and


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The PhilStockWorld.com BNN Money Talk Portfolio – September 6, 2017

The PhilStockWorld.com MoneyTalk Portfolio

We will be tracking our trade ideas in a the Money Talk Portfolio which we're starting with $50,000, giving us $100,000 in ordinary margin to play with.  We will update it monthly and post a link for our viewers to follow and we'll do live progress reports along the way.

Sept. 6, 2017 – (see original portfolio discussion here

Sept. 20th, 2017 Update:

November 9th, 2017 – Making great progress and discussed in today's Report:

To become a PhilStockWorld member and gain access to our other virtual portfolios sign up today

December 12th, 2017 – Chugging right along.  PSW Members went to CASH!!! into the holidays on our portfolios, this is the only open one left (see today's post for comments):

  • I'm certainly not worried about Apple (AAPL), which is a 3-time Stock of the Year champion.  Though the spread is already up $7,400 (113%) at $13,500 after just 3 months, the goal is to get back $30,000 so this humble trade is still good for another $16,500 (122%) of additional gains if AAPL is good enough to hold $165 for the year.  
  • IMAX should do very well this month with Star Wars out on Friday so the force should be strong for


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Phil's Favorites

Rogue science strikes again: The case of the first gene-edited babies

 

Rogue science strikes again: The case of the first gene-edited babies

Chinese scientists led by He Jiankui claimed they used CRISPR to modify human embryos that eventually were born as twin girls. AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein

Courtesy of G. Owen Schaefer, National University of Singapore

The idea of scientists tinkering with the genes of babies was once the provenance of science fiction, but now it’s apparently entered the realm of reality: On Nov. 26, Chinese scientist He Jiankui reported the historic live births of ...



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Zero Hedge

Are Grisly Warning Labels Coming To US Cigarettes?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Soon US smokers could see the shocking visual warning labels on cigarette packets that Americans have come to identify with Europe. US health officials are making a new push to require graphic images to be placed on every cigarette pack by law across the US to discourage smoking, as the current mere textual warning hasn't changed since 1984. The Associated Press reported this week:

The Food and Drug Administration on Thursday proposed 13 new warnings that would appear on all cigarettes, including images of ...



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The Technical Traders

Negative Yields Tell A Story Of Shifting Economic Leadership

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Negative yields are becoming common for many of the world’s most mature economies.  The process of extending negative yields within these economies suggests that safety is more important than returns and that central banks realize that growth and increases in GDP are more important than positive returns on capital.  In the current economic environment, this suggests that global capital investors are seeking out alternative solutions to adequately develop longer-term opportunities and to develop native growth prospects that don’t currently exist.

Our research team has been researching this phenomenon and how it relates to the continued “capital shift&rdq...



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Insider Scoop

Heavy Volume Drives Low-Float Stock Plus Therapeutics Up 200%

Courtesy of Benzinga

Plus Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ: PSTV) is the latest and one of the most extreme recent examples of the powerful combination of low float and heavy trading volume.

Plus shares traded higher by more than 215% on Friday. The biotech stock more than tripled after the company reported ...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Long Term Stock Market Chart Perspective

Courtesy of Lee Adler

After a big day like yesterday, I like to get a little long term stock market chart perspective. (Yes, this stilted verbiage is for search engine optimization ).

We do that with a monthly bar chart, which I update when relevant in Lee Adler’s Technical Trader. That’s in addition to the regular daily bar/cycle charts covering the past year, and a weekly cycle chart covering the past 4 years.

I wrote on July 14, in reference to the price and indicator patterns on the weekly chart:

The market has overshot a 3-4 year cycle projection in terms of both price and time. There are no long term projections. A 4 year cycle high is ideally due now. A 4 ye...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

S&P About To Decline 14%, Catching Up With The Crude Oil Declines?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

This chart looks at the performance of the S&P 500, Crude Oil and the Yield on the 10-Year note over the past 4-months.

Crude Oil has declined around 14% more than the S&P during this time frame. Yields have declined, even more, around 36%. The is a huge spread between these assets over this short of a time period.

A few importa...



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Chart School

Bitcoin 2019 fractal with Gold 2013

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Funny how price action patterns repeat, double tops, head and shoulders. These are simply market fractals of supply and demand.

More from RTT Tv

Ref: US Crypto Holders Only Have a Few Days to Reply to the IRS 6173 Letter

Today's news from the US IRS has been blamed for the recent price slump, yet the bitcoin fractal like the gold fractal suggest the market players have set bitcoin up for a slump to $9000 USD long before the IRS news hit the wire.

Get the impression some market players missed out on the b...

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Digital Currencies

New Zealand Becomes 1st Country To Legalize Payment Of Salaries In Crypto

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have been on a persistent upswing this year, but they're still pretty volatile. But during a time when even some of the most developed economies in the word are watching their currencies bounce around like the Argentine peso (just take a look at a six-month chart for GBPUSD), New Zealand has decided to take the plunge and become the first country to legalize payment in bitcoin, the FT reports.

The ruling by New Zealand’s tax authority allows salaries and wages to b...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Biotech

DNA testing companies offer telomere testing - but what does it tell you about aging and disease risk?

Reminder: We're is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA testing companies offer telomere testing – but what does it tell you about aging and disease risk?

A telomere age test kit from Telomere Diagnostics Inc. and saliva. collection kit from 23andMe. Anna Hoychuk/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Patricia Opresko, University of Pittsburgh and Elise Fouquerel, ...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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