Archive for the ‘BNN Money Talk’ Category

Phil Davis on BNN’s MoneyTalk — 9-1-21: Two New Option Strategies

 

Phil discusses the stock market, reviews the Money Talk virtual portfolio, and adds a couple of new options trades (details below) on Bloomberg BNN's Money Talk with Kim Parlee. 

 

The growing disconnect between market performance and valuations

 

 

Two option strategies to play market trends

 

Trade 1: HP Inc. 

Trade 2: Boyd Gaming





Phil on BNN Money Talk — May 12, 2021

 

Phil Davis investing ideas

Phil updates viewers on the MoneyTalk virtual portfolio and shares a couple trade ideas on Kim Parlee's Money Talk. 





Money Talk Portfolio Review, 2021′s Outlook & Trade of the Year

 

Phil's trade of the year for 2021: Intel 

Phil's Money Talk Portfolio is up 51% Year to Date! 

  • Read Phil's review of his Money Talk Portfolio here
  • Watch Phil and Kim Parlee discuss the Money Talk portfolio and Phil's trade of the year for 2021 on BNN Bloomberg:

Phil Davis, founder of philstockworld.com and managing partner at PSW Investments, recaps the performance of the MoneyTalk PSW portfolio and explains why tech giant Intel (INTC) is his trade of the year. (BNN Bloomberg)

Trade of the Year 2021: Intel (INTC)

I'd rather not pick another Tech as SWPR is technically tech but I have no choice but to recognize Intel (INTC) as the trade most likely to return 300% over the next two years AND be the least likely to take a loss.  Those two factors, low risk and high reward, make INTC our 2021 Trade of the Year.  After bottoming out at $45 on delays in their new chip sets, INTC has already recovered to $50 but that's only $205Bn and INTC makes $21Bn a year in Net Income for a P/E of less than 10.  

 

The recent volatility has left the option premiums elevated so we can take advantage of that with the following trade idea for the Money Talk Portfolio:

  • Sell 10 INTC 2023 $45 puts for $7.30 ($7,300)
  • Buy 25 INTC 2023 $45 calls for $10.75 ($26,875)
  • Sell 25 INTC 2023 $55 calls for $7.00 ($17,500) 

That's net $2,075 on the $25,000 spread with $22,925 (1,105%) of upside potential at just $55.  Ordinary margin on the short puts should be $3,059 but, even with IRA or 401K full margin, this is a very nice way to make $22,925 in two years as the downside risk on INTC is very limited.  Their main rival, AMD, has just $7Bn in sales vs $72Bn for INTC, they are 1/10th the size and no significant threat.  

With


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Trade of the Year Tuesday – Who Will Survive the Fall?

Tesla nears $500 billion! Higher than combined m-cap of Ford, BMW, 7 other  automakersThis is a solemn duty.  

We have not had a miss in a decade of our Trade of the Year picks and I'd hate to break that streak.  I am currently considering that my trade of the year should be NO TRADE as I really don't trust the markets and I'd rather short Tesla (TSLA), which is often a suicide run but TSLA never stops going up and $650 is $608Bn in market cap - more than EVERY other car company COMBINED – so that stock has left logic and reason behind long, long ago

And yes, just one week ago, they made this chart and TSLA was 20% lower than it is now.  Since then it's gained a Volkswagen in value and that's clearly ridiculous but, when things are clearly ridiculous, what is to stop them from getting more so?  

So, TSLA is too dangerous to short but, if I were to short it, I would buy the Jan 2023 $800 puts for $350 and I would sell the Jan 2022 $800 puts for $295, which would put me in the calendar spread for net $55 and I would pay for 10 of those $55,000 by selling 3 Jan 2022 $750 calls for $152.50 ($45,750) so we'd be in the spread for net $9,250 and our hopes there are that the short calls expire worthless and the short puts either expire worthless or can be rolled lower and whatever value is left on the long puts greater than $9,250 is our profit.  We'll see how that goes next year.

In last year's Trade of the Year Report, we ended up picking Barrick Gold (GOLD) at $16.50 with a net $750 spread that would pay $12,000 if all went well for a $11,250 (1,500%) profit if GOLD were over $17 in Jan, 2022 (one of our famous "Stupid Options Tricks" we teach our Members.  GOLD rocketed up to $30 in the summer and we took an early exit and now it's back to $23.95 and I'm almost ready to jump back in:  

I don't see the Dollar getting too much stronger so Gold and GOLD should continue


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Phil Davis trade ideas: Barrick and Pfizer (10-7-20)

 

Phil Davis trade ideas: Barrick and Pfizer

Phil Davis looks back at how his trade idea for investing in Barrick (ABX) has played out over the past several months and lays out a new trading idea how investors can capitalize on pharmaceutical giant Pfizer (PFE).

 

Phil talks about ABX, gold, hedging against inflation, stocks, the Money Talk PSW portfolio, IBM and Macy's (both good for new trades), the kind of trades we like to be in using options, the stock market, and a new options trade for Pfizer (it's not too late!).

 





Phil Davis trading ideas

 

Phil Davis trading ideas (July 17, 2020)

Phil Davis, founder of philstockworld.com and PSW Investments looks at the performance of the MoneyTalk portfolio during the COVID-19 pandemic and shares a trading idea involving options for Tesla and Toyota.

(Originally published on July 17, 20)





Money Talk Portfolio Update & Show (4-29-20)

MoneyTalk Portfolio Update, April 29

The last time I was on the show was March 11th, a bit before we hit bottom and I made a call for jumping into blue chips and I made a call for selling puts on stocks you want to buy, using Valero (VLO) and Ford (F) as examples. We also added Tanger Factory Outlets (SKT) as a long-term dividend play. Our Money Talk Portfolio was down 8.4% at the time and we made a series of aggressive moves I detailed in that morning's PSW Report – in order to take advantage of the market decline.  

We had the advantage of being mostly in CASH!!! In fact, we had $99,235 of cash in the portfolio while the positions themselves were worth -$7,670 for net $91,565 out of our original $100,000 we began with back on 11/13/19.  We had stayed "Cashy and Cautious" – as we did with all of our Member Portfolios, as we felt fairly certain that SOMETHING was going to cause the market to sell off – we just didn't expect it to be a virus!

We used $14,540 of our sideline cash to make adjustments and another net $1,425 was spent on the three new positions (our core strategy at PSW is to sell premium, not to buy it).  So far, so good as we're back to $101,825 as of yesterday's close but we're a little worried about two of our positions and we're going to add a couple as well:

  • Ford (F) – They made it through the last crisis without a bailout so we think net $3.65 would be a great entry but, on the whole, we're very confident we'll collect the full $2,750 that is currently charged against us.

  • Valero (VLO) – Another new addition and already nicely profitable.  All VLO has to do is not be below $40 in Jan of 2022 and we make another $3,925 – aren't options fun?  Our worst


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MoneyTalk Portfolio Update

 

Update: 

See Phil on MoneyTalk Feb. 5, 2020, here.

 
Markets have seen some wild swings in recent weeks as investors worry about the potential economic impact of the Coronavirus. Phil Davis, founder of philstockworld.com and PSW Investments, shares some specific options strategies for a Chinese EFT, IMAX, the entertainment technology company and Freeport McMoran aimed to help investors take advantage of the volatility.

 

Money Talk Portfolio Update

Summary:

  • We initiated a new Money Talk Portfolio last Quarter for Seeking Alpha.
  • It's a no-touch portfolio between appearances on the Bloomberg Show.
  • Below is an update and 2 new positions.

 

Up and up the markets go (again).

With 25,000 infected (up 7,500 (42.8%) from Monday) and 500 dead (up 140 (38.6%) from Monday) so far from the virus – that markets appear to now be completely ignoring – I'm kind of focused on the infections outside of China (which stands at 216 versus 183 on Monday). The good news this morning is China claims to be close to a treatment that seems to work for virus patients and we now have 988 people recovered – twice as many as have died so – progress!

As we also noted on Monday, Gilead (GILD) is making progress on a vaccine, as are others so we should be happy with the progress but now we're back to our original problem which is that stocks are just too darned expensive in the first place. The U.S. PEG Ratio (Price/Earning divided by Growth) has NEVER been higher than it is now and that means stocks have never been more expensive relative to their actual growth:

Of course, this is our job to look for stocks that are specifically good buys, like GILD


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Money Talk Portfolio at TheStreet.com: New Portfolio, New Trades!

 

Money Talk Portfolio at TheStreet.com: New Portfolio, New Trades!

In case you missed Phil on Money Talk last month, watch video here.

[These trades were originally posted on 11-13-19]

We are featuring some of our Member Portfolios over at TheStreet.com starting with our Money Talk Portfolio, which kicks off this evening on BNN (Bloomberg Canada) at 7pm this evening. Through the end of this quarter, the Money Talk tab usually found on PSW will ALSO be found on TheStreet but, over time, they will get the exclusive on that and a couple of other portfolios as well as some PSW content (also a subscription).   

We closed the old Money Talk Portfolio after two years with a 148.1% gain on Sept 18th as I didn't trust the upcoming quarter enough to risk the gains.  Turned out I was premature in my worries (as I often am because I'm a worrier) but I'm still worried so we're going to start with a couple of conservative trade ideas and see how things go.  The rule of the Money Talk Portfolio is we only do trades we announce on the show, once each quarter so it's a very low-touch portfolio using our options strategies to hedge the risk and lever our returns. 

When closing down the MTP, I did make the following suggestion for a good use of our $124,042 of cash:

Our 2019 Stock of the Year is IBM (IBM) and our IBM position is already 100% in the money at net $2,707 out of a potential $7,500 so, if I were going to keep one trade active – that would be the one as all IBM has to do between now and January of 2021 is hold $135 and that spread will make another $4,793 (177%) so we could, for example, put $27,070 of our $124,043 in cash back to work on just the IBM trade and, if all goes well, it will turn into $75,000 – making almost 100% of our original total in just over a year – so why be more complicated than that?

There's still a lot of potential


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Wild Wednesday – Trade In Doubt, Impeachment Begins, Powell Testifies and We Take Money Talk to The Street!

Where do I begin?  

The Index Futures are down about 0.5% as Trump once again puts a Trade Deal into doubt.  Europe and Asia are down more like 1% so we might be just getting started or Trump could send out one of those "I was joking" tweets after he threatened China with more tariffs yesterday.  “In the short term the market’s been too optimistic. The best interpretation of the trade situation is that almost everything that can be tariffed has been tariffed,said Christopher Mahon, director of asset allocation research at Barings.  

How come when he says it on Nov 12th, he's quoted in the WSJ but when I've been saying it for two months – no one notices?  I have to get a better publicist – or A publicist….  

Speaking of which, I guess I will have a better publicist as we move some of our Member Portfolios over to TheStreet.com starting with our Money Talk Portfolio, which kicks off this evening on BNN (Bloomberg Canada) at 7pm this evening.  Through the end of this quarter, the Money Talk tab usually found on PSW will ALSO be found on TheStreet but, over time, they will get the exclusive on that and a couple of other portfolios as well as some PSW content (also a subscription).   

We closed the old Money Talk Portfolio after two years with a 148.1% gain on Sept 18th as I didn't trust the upcoming quarter enough to risk the gains.  Turned out I was premature in my worries (as I often am because I'm a worrier) but I'm still worried so we're going to start with a couple of conservative trade ideas and see how things go.  The rule of the Money Talk Portfolio is we only do trades we announce on the show, once each quarter so it's a very low-touch portfolio using our options strategies to hedge the risk and lever our returns. 

When closing down the MTP, I did make the following suggestion for a good use of our $124,042 of cash:

Our 2019 Stock of the Year is IBM (IBM) and


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Phil's Favorites

How to make fragile global supply chains stronger and more sustainable

 

How to make fragile global supply chains stronger and more sustainable

Shipping containers are moved from the Fairview Cove Container Terminal In Halifax in May 2021. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Andrew Vaughan

Courtesy off Adel Guitouni, University of Victoria; Cynthia Waltho, University of Victoria, and Mohammadreza Nematollahi, University of Victoria

...

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Digital Currencies

Ethereum: the transformation that could see it overtake bitcoin

 

Ethereum: the transformation that could see it overtake bitcoin

The crypto wars are hotting up. Wit Olszewski

Courtesy of Daniel Broby, University of Strathclyde

The world’s second most valuable cryptocurrency, ether, has been touching all-time highs in price ahead of a major upgrade of its underlying platform, ethereum. Ether is currently worth in aggregate just shy of US$500 billion (£363 billion). That’s still slightly less than half that of the biggest cryptocurrency, bitcoin.

...

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Zero Hedge

Wait Until All These New Homebuyers See Their Property Taxes Go Up Next Year

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

To add another chapter to the "our economy is a ponzi scheme bubble that is bound to eventually burst" argument, those who went out and overpaid for property this year may wind up with a hangover in the form up skyrocketing property taxes.

We all know that higher real estate prices (hereinafter referred to as "a real estate bubble") are often praised by government and Fed officials as signs of progress for the economy. They're great news for those who already own property and terrible news for those looking to enter the m...



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Politics

Trump wants the National Archives to keep his papers away from investigators - post-Watergate laws and executive orders may not let him

 

Trump wants the National Archives to keep his papers away from investigators – post-Watergate laws and executive orders may not let him

Nixon resigned after tapes he had fought making public incriminated him in the Watergate coverup. Bettmann/Getty

Courtesy of Shannon Bow O'Brien, The University of Texas at Austin College of Liberal Arts

The National Archives is the United States’ memory, a repository of artifacts that includes everything from half-fo...



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Biotech/COVID-19

An infectious disease expert explains new federal rules on 'mix-and-match' vaccine booster shots

 

An infectious disease expert explains new federal rules on ‘mix-and-match’ vaccine booster shots

Discuss with your doctor whether or not you need a booster – and if so, which vaccine will work best for you. Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News via Getty Images

Courtesy of Glenn J. Rapsinski, University of Pittsburgh Health Sciences

Many Americans now have the green light to get a COVID-19 vaccine booster – and the flexibility to receive a different brand than the ori...



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Chart School

Price and Volume Swing Analysis on Bitcoin and Silver

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Many take guidance from news, pundits or advisors. Well sometimes the swings of price and volume are a better measure of what happens next.

The big boys do not accumulate or distribute in single 1 second trade, they build positions over weeks, months and years. They use price swings in the market to build or reduce positions, and you can see their intent by studying swings of price and volume and applying Tim Ord logic as written in his book called 'The Secret Science of Price and Volume: Techniques for Spotting Market Trends, Hot Sectors, and the Best Stocks'.

Tim Ord is a follower of Richard Wyckoff logic, his book has added to the studies of Richard Wyckoff, Richard Ney and Bob Evans.

Richard Wyckoff after years of...

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Promotions

Phil's Interview on Options Trading with TD Bank

TD Bank's host Bryan Rogers interviewed Phil on June 10 as part of TD's Options Education Month. If you missed the program, be sure to watch the video below. It should be required viewing for anyone trading or thinking about trading using options. 

Watch here:

TD's webinar with Phil (link) or right here at PSW

Screenshots of TD's slides illustrating Phil's examples:

 

 

&n...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Crude Oil Cleared For Blast Off On This Dual Breakout?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is Crude Oil about to blast off and hit much higher prices? It might be worth being aware of what could be taking place this month in this important commodity!

Crude Oil has created lower highs over the past 13-years, since peaking back in 2008, along line (1).

It created a “Double Top at (2), then it proceeded to decline more than 60% in four months.

The countertrend rally in Crude Oil has it attempting to break above its 13-year falling resistance as well as its double top at (3).

A successful breakout at (3) would suggest Crude Oil is about to mo...



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ValueWalk

Managing Investments As A Charity Or Nonprofit

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Maintaining financial viability is a constant challenge for charities and nonprofit organizations.

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The past year has underscored that challenge. The pandemic has not just affected investment returns – it’s also had serious implications for charitable activities and the ability to fundraise. For some organizations, it’s even raised doubts about whether they can continue to operate.

Finding ways to generate long-term, sustainable returns for ...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider





About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.