Phil Davis trade ideas: Barrick and Pfizer (10-7-20)
by ilene - November 19th, 2020 10:41 am
Phil Davis trade ideas: Barrick and Pfizer
Phil Davis looks back at how his trade idea for investing in Barrick (ABX) has played out over the past several months and lays out a new trading idea how investors can capitalize on pharmaceutical giant Pfizer (PFE).
Phil talks about ABX, gold, hedging against inflation, stocks, the Money Talk PSW portfolio, IBM and Macy's (both good for new trades), the kind of trades we like to be in using options, the stock market, and a new options trade for Pfizer (it's not too late!).
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Phil Davis trading ideas
by ilene - November 18th, 2020 12:03 pm
Phil Davis trading ideas (July 17, 2020)
Phil Davis, founder of philstockworld.com and PSW Investments looks at the performance of the MoneyTalk portfolio during the COVID-19 pandemic and shares a trading idea involving options for Tesla and Toyota.
(Originally published on July 17, 20)
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Money Talk Portfolio Update & Show (4-29-20)
by ilene - May 10th, 2020 8:17 pm
MoneyTalk Portfolio Update, April 29
The last time I was on the show was March 11th, a bit before we hit bottom and I made a call for jumping into blue chips and I made a call for selling puts on stocks you want to buy, using Valero (VLO) and Ford (F) as examples. We also added Tanger Factory Outlets (SKT) as a long-term dividend play. Our Money Talk Portfolio was down 8.4% at the time and we made a series of aggressive moves I detailed in that morning's PSW Report – in order to take advantage of the market decline.
We had the advantage of being mostly in CASH!!! In fact, we had $99,235 of cash in the portfolio while the positions themselves were worth -$7,670 for net $91,565 out of our original $100,000 we began with back on 11/13/19. We had stayed "Cashy and Cautious" – as we did with all of our Member Portfolios, as we felt fairly certain that SOMETHING was going to cause the market to sell off – we just didn't expect it to be a virus!
We used $14,540 of our sideline cash to make adjustments and another net $1,425 was spent on the three new positions (our core strategy at PSW is to sell premium, not to buy it). So far, so good as we're back to $101,825 as of yesterday's close but we're a little worried about two of our positions and we're going to add a couple as well:
- Ford (F) – They made it through the last crisis without a bailout so we think net $3.65 would be a great entry but, on the whole, we're very confident we'll collect the full $2,750 that is currently charged against us.
- Valero (VLO) – Another new addition and already nicely profitable. All VLO has to do is not be below $40 in Jan of 2022 and we make another $3,925 – aren't options fun? Our worst
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MoneyTalk Portfolio Update
by ilene - February 6th, 2020 10:59 am
Update:
See Phil on MoneyTalk Feb. 5, 2020, here.
Markets have seen some wild swings in recent weeks as investors worry about the potential economic impact of the Coronavirus. Phil Davis, founder of philstockworld.com and PSW Investments, shares some specific options strategies for a Chinese EFT, IMAX, the entertainment technology company and Freeport McMoran aimed to help investors take advantage of the volatility.
Money Talk Portfolio Update
Summary:
- We initiated a new Money Talk Portfolio last Quarter for Seeking Alpha.
- It's a no-touch portfolio between appearances on the Bloomberg Show.
- Below is an update and 2 new positions.
Up and up the markets go (again).
With 25,000 infected (up 7,500 (42.8%) from Monday) and 500 dead (up 140 (38.6%) from Monday) so far from the virus – that markets appear to now be completely ignoring – I'm kind of focused on the infections outside of China (which stands at 216 versus 183 on Monday). The good news this morning is China claims to be close to a treatment that seems to work for virus patients and we now have 988 people recovered – twice as many as have died so – progress!
As we also noted on Monday, Gilead (GILD) is making progress on a vaccine, as are others so we should be happy with the progress but now we're back to our original problem which is that stocks are just too darned expensive in the first place. The U.S. PEG Ratio (Price/Earning divided by Growth) has NEVER been higher than it is now and that means stocks have never been more expensive relative to their actual growth:
Of course, this is our job to look for stocks that are specifically good buys, like GILD
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Money Talk Portfolio at TheStreet.com: New Portfolio, New Trades!
by ilene - December 21st, 2019 7:59 pm
Money Talk Portfolio at TheStreet.com: New Portfolio, New Trades!
In case you missed Phil on Money Talk last month, watch video here.
[These trades were originally posted on 11-13-19]
We are featuring some of our Member Portfolios over at TheStreet.com starting with our Money Talk Portfolio, which kicks off this evening on BNN (Bloomberg Canada) at 7pm this evening. Through the end of this quarter, the Money Talk tab usually found on PSW will ALSO be found on TheStreet but, over time, they will get the exclusive on that and a couple of other portfolios as well as some PSW content (also a subscription).
We closed the old Money Talk Portfolio after two years with a 148.1% gain on Sept 18th as I didn't trust the upcoming quarter enough to risk the gains. Turned out I was premature in my worries (as I often am because I'm a worrier) but I'm still worried so we're going to start with a couple of conservative trade ideas and see how things go. The rule of the Money Talk Portfolio is we only do trades we announce on the show, once each quarter so it's a very low-touch portfolio using our options strategies to hedge the risk and lever our returns.
When closing down the MTP, I did make the following suggestion for a good use of our $124,042 of cash:
Our 2019 Stock of the Year is IBM (IBM) and our IBM position is already 100% in the money at net $2,707 out of a potential $7,500 so, if I were going to keep one trade active – that would be the one as all IBM has to do between now and January of 2021 is hold $135 and that spread will make another $4,793 (177%) so we could, for example, put $27,070 of our $124,043 in cash back to work on just the IBM trade and, if all goes well, it will turn into $75,000 – making almost 100% of our original total in just over a year – so why be more complicated than that?
There's still a lot of potential
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Wild Wednesday – Trade In Doubt, Impeachment Begins, Powell Testifies and We Take Money Talk to The Street!
by phil - November 13th, 2019 8:21 am
Where do I begin?
The Index Futures are down about 0.5% as Trump once again puts a Trade Deal into doubt. Europe and Asia are down more like 1% so we might be just getting started or Trump could send out one of those "I was joking" tweets after he threatened China with more tariffs yesterday. “In the short term the market’s been too optimistic. The best interpretation of the trade situation is that almost everything that can be tariffed has been tariffed,” said Christopher Mahon, director of asset allocation research at Barings.
How come when he says it on Nov 12th, he's quoted in the WSJ but when I've been saying it for two months – no one notices? I have to get a better publicist – or A publicist….
Speaking of which, I guess I will have a better publicist as we move some of our Member Portfolios over to TheStreet.com starting with our Money Talk Portfolio, which kicks off this evening on BNN (Bloomberg Canada) at 7pm this evening. Through the end of this quarter, the Money Talk tab usually found on PSW will ALSO be found on TheStreet but, over time, they will get the exclusive on that and a couple of other portfolios as well as some PSW content (also a subscription).
We closed the old Money Talk Portfolio after two years with a 148.1% gain on Sept 18th as I didn't trust the upcoming quarter enough to risk the gains. Turned out I was premature in my worries (as I often am because I'm a worrier) but I'm still worried so we're going to start with a couple of conservative trade ideas and see how things go. The rule of the Money Talk Portfolio is we only do trades we announce on the show, once each quarter so it's a very low-touch portfolio using our options strategies to hedge the risk and lever our returns.
When closing down the MTP, I did make the following suggestion for a good use of our $124,042 of cash:
Our 2019 Stock of the Year is IBM (IBM) and
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The PhilStockWorld.com Money Talk Portfolio Review – Sept 18, 2019
by phil - September 17th, 2019 10:14 pm
I'll be on BNN's (Bloomberg Canada) Money Talk tonight at 7pm.
The last time I was on the show was back in on April 24th and we only make changes to the Money Talk Portfolio live on the show so we decided to lock into a neutral position over the summer and that's just where we ended up, dropping to $124,043 from April's $127,663 so down $3,620 for the summer is about as neutral as we can get it and we're still up $74,043 (148%) from our $50,000 start just about 2 years ago on the button.
Since there's a lot of uncertainty going into Q4 and it has been just about 2 years – I think this is a good time to cash out this portfolio and we will begin a new portfolio with a new $50,000 around Thanksgiving – beginning with our still-undecided Stock of the Year.
Our 2019 Stock of the Year is IBM (IBM) and our IBM position is already 100% in the money at net $2,707 out of a potential $7,500 so, if I were going to keep one trade active – that would be the one as all IBM has to do between now and January of 2021 is hold $135 and that spread will make another $4,793 (177%) so we could, for example, put $27,070 of our $124,043 in cash back to work on just the IBM trade and, if all goes well, it will turn into $75,000 – making almost 100% of our original total in just over a year – so why be more complicated than that?
There's still a lot of potential in all these positions, as noted in the April review, the portfolio has the potential to hit over $200,000 by Jan 2020 but, as I noted, if we cash out now at $124,043 and make another $50,000 on the IBM trade – that's $174,000(ish) anyway but we'd have $100,000 in our pockets NOT at risk through the holidays – that is certainly a much wiser way to go – especially in a portfolio we are unable to adjust between shows.
So the decision is final, we're cashing out and endorsing our Stock of…
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The PhilStockWorld.com Money Talk Portfolio Review – Apr 24, 2019
by phil - April 24th, 2019 8:42 am
I'll be on BNN's (Bloomberg Canada) Money Talk tonight at 7pm.
As usual, we will be reviewing our Money Talk Portfolio, which we initiated back on Sept 6th, 2017 to track the trade ideas we would introduce, live on the show, about once each quarter. The idea of the portfolio was to select highly leveraged, high-probability trades that did not have to be adjusted very often (or at all) and, so far, it's been a tremendous success with our initial $50,000 turning into a lovely $127,663 (up 155.3%) at yesterday's close, about 18 months after we got started.
We recently reviewed the MTP back on Feb 15th and, at the time, the portfolio was at $88,922 with, of course, the exact same positions – as I hadn't been on the show since Jan. We did send out an alert (our first ever) to dump GE shortly after that – those alerts go out free of charge on Twitter, Facebook, Seeking Alpha, etc to make sure they were available to all so make sure you follow those feeds. Note that, for each position, we clearly define our expectations and, overall, we expected our positions to make another $76,638 at the time but we've already made another $38,741 (43%) – which is way too fast – so we have to be careful that some of our positions are overbought already.
That's right as FUNDAMENTAL VALUE INVESTORS we believe that stocks – even the ones we like – can be too expensive, as well as too cheap. When they are too cheap, we buy them – when they are too expensive, we sell them. It sounds logical but how many traders actually do it when the time comes?
Now, let's take a fresh look at what we have:
- Alaska Airlines (ALK) – Just a short put that nets us in for $51.80. We're not worried about it. Expect to gain the full $4,100 so $2,650 left to gain.
- Nasdaq Ultra-Short ETF (SQQQ) - A hedge we expect to lose on and so far, so good as we're down about $4,000 with just $450 in value left. Still, we do need
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The PhilStockWorld.com Money Talk Portfolio Review – Jan 30, 2019
by phil - January 30th, 2019 8:33 am
I'll be on BNN's Money Talk tonight at 7pm.
For the past year, we've been keeping a Money Talk Portfolio, which we only adjust live on their show, once per quarter so we have to keep it well-balanced and self-hedging. We rode out the recent downturn with style as our last review, on Oct 24th (the last time I was on the show) we were at $95,645, up $45,645 (91.3%) from our $50,000 start and we projected that our remaining positions would gain $70,015 by Jan, 2021 (the time-frame for our spreads).
Not content with that, we added two new trades (MU and MJ) and one hedge (TZA and CAT), adding another $50,000 of upside potential over the same time-frame. So, with $120,000 of upside potential over the next 24 months, we expect to make about $5,000 per month but the market took a nasty downturn and we're only just recovering so I'm sorry to report that we're only up to $105,845, which is up $55,845 (111.7%) and "only" up $10,200 (20.4%) in the past 3 months.
We were unable to make adjustments during the downturn, which we did call very well in our Live Member Portfolios (see our Jan 21st Portfolio Review), so the performance is not quite as good as our Live Trading Portfolios but it's the perfect portfolio for less active traders, who just like to check on their progress every few months. As of yesterday's close, our positions were:
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As you can see, the MJ trade we added during the October show has blasted higher and is up $6,550 already but it's a $40,000 spread we had intended to make $38,500 on so up $6,550 in a quarter is what we call "on track" and, even as a new trade, the net is still just $8,050 so the upside is $31,950 (396%) if MJ is over $45 in 2021.
And that, by the way, is how we review our portfolios. You should always know how much you expect to gain from every one of your trades and options allow us to know not just how much but WHEN we expect to realize our gains – so it's…
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The PhilStockWorld.com Money Talk Portfolio – October 24, 2018
by admin - October 24th, 2018 9:26 am
Speaking of trading, I am scheduled to be on BNN's Money Talk tonight at 7:30 which means it's time to adjust our Money Talk Portfolio. We did a review last Thursday and the Portfolio was at $97,037 with the S&P at 2,802 and, as of yesterday's close, we had dropped $1,394 to $95,645 but that's still up $45,645 (91.3%) for the year so not terrible but it lets us know we need to do a bit more to lock in the gains (ie. more hedges).
- ALK – A short put we are confident in, should gain another $3,275 at maturity.
- SQQQ – A good hedge that's $6,760 in the money but only showing net $3,450 out of a $10,000 potential. Hopefully we lose the $3,450 because the market does well as it's simply insurance and not a bet.
- ABX – A long-term bet on gold that pays up to $12,500 and is currently on track at net $2,225 so good for a new trade with another $10,275 (460%) left to gain at $15.
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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Ilene is editor and affiliate program
coordinator for PSW.