Archive for the ‘Virtual Portfolio Review’ Category

Philstockworld January Portfolio Review (Members Only)

Image result for one million dollars animated gifWhat an amazing first year!  

As of Friday's close, the LTP alone is at $1 Million, finishing the day up 101.1% from our Jan 2nd, 2018 start date.  We've spent a lot of time in December discussing our system as we had a lovely real-World situation to see how it works in action in a market reversal that occurred in weeks, rather than months.  

The way our system is designed to work is to force you to buy low and sell high through the discipline designed into our trading pattern.  First of all, we SCALE into our positions, usually starting with a short put sale and then, if the stock gets cheaper – we initiate our initial long position but it's usually just a 1/4 allocation and we don't get to a 1/2 allocation unless the stock gets EVEN CHEAPER as we roll and scale into a larger position.  

That means we are buying when things are low – that's the plan from the minute we buy and we don't buy unless we think we have a bargain in the first place.  If we get our Fundamentals right and the stock does turn back around – the rewards can be incredible – especially as we're using option positions to greatly leverage the stocks bullish recovery.  

But, in order to ride out a 10-20% market correction, you have to have CASH!!! and you have to have margin in reserve and that means you have to NOT over-extend – even when things are going very well and that means we are also forced to cash in our positions when the market goes too high as well.  So, following our system simply forces you to do the most basic thing any stock guru tells you to do (more or less) – buy low and sell high!  What can be simpler than that?  

As you can see from the S&P chart for this year, we've had 3 times when the market has fallen 10% along with one 6.66% correction so it's not at all rare that we get a chance to add to our positions on dips.  Also you'll note that the 2,600 line on the S&P (…
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PhilStockworld November Portfolio Review (Members Only)

Image result for one million dollars animated gif$1,186,527!  

That's up just under 100% on our STP/LTP combination, which started with $100,000/500,000 on Jan 2nd so, all in all, it was a good year – as of 11/16 anyway.  Now it's Nov 27th and I haven't updated the positions on the spreadsheets yet due to the holidays but, in the exact same positions after a couple of wild weeks, the LTP now stands at $894,878 and the STP is at $354,962 so that's a combined $1,249,840 as the STP got bigger and the LTP didn't lose too much ground.  

That's for the UNTOUCHED positions but, as you'll see below, we did a lot of touching so it remains to be seen whether we made matters better or worse.  Meanwhile, $1,186,527 was up $46,011 from our September Review (I never collected the October reviews into a single post) so we're chugging along pretty much as expected now and what really saved the LTP was all those short-term trades we made back on Sept 26th (see Top Trade Alert) that are indeed giving us a $100,000+ pop into the Jan expirations on all those short calls we sold in anticipation of a correction.  

It's always a good idea to go back and read the logic we had at the time in retrospect so that, next time we have a similar situation, you'll have the experience of having gone through it before and you'll have a better idea of what to expect.  As a bonus – those 9 positions we picked are mostly still good for new trades as they pulled back as expected, so now we wait for the next bounce to sell more calls.

Meanwhile, the summary of our Reviews is as follows:

Options Opportunity Portfolio (OOP) – Part 1:  Don't forget, this is a quick review just highlighting changes.  Image is from 11/2, not the current but I'll note any adds if I can and please ask about anything I may have missed where action may be required.

  • BJO – is now JO, apparently and on track at $42.81.
  • TZA – Hedge is doing it's magic, now up $8,000 but


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PhilStockWorld September Portfolio Review (Members Only)

Image result for one million dollars animated gif$1,140,516!  

It's been two months since we did our July Portfolio Review as I was on a cruise in August and skipped that review and, in fact, we made very few changes to our portfolios over the summer but that didn't stop them from chugging along to fantastic gains.  Most of the changes we made were to get more bullish as, back in June, we cashed out a lot of our winning positions in an attempt to get more defensive into the summer.  

As we started the year with $500,000 in the Long-Term Portfolio and $100,000 in the Short-Term Portfolio to protect it with, we're getting very close to an overall double as we're already up $540,516 (90%) but our moves this month have once again led towards taking money off the table and adding more hedges and you may think that's being too defensive in this runaway bull market but it's the same thing we did in July, when we pressed our hedges and cashed in winners as well.

The thing about cashing in winners is, when you do it right, you also improve your losing positions and then, when they turn around, you can really turbo-charge your returns.  We benefitted this summer from a rising tide that lifted most ships over the summer – even the ones we had left on the bottom.  The S&P, for its part, is up just under 10% since the June dip as we keep waiting for the correction that never comes.  Still, that doesn't stop us from adding hedges in the Short-Term Portfolio to lock in these ill-gotten gains in the LTP:

Short-Term Portfolio Review (STP):  We added the AMZN shorts, but that's the only change since our 8/27 review, when we were at $225,802 and now we're at $232,125 which is up 132.1% for the year and up $6,323 for the month (6.3%) as our TSLA and AMZN shorts more than offset the losses from our hedges (and we cashed out AAPL too).     

Now we have $173,350 in CASH!!! and, as calculated last month, about $200,000 in protection for our LTP – which we only pray is going to…
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Philstockworld September Top Trade Review

Image result for top trade ideasYes, this is Thursday morning's PSW Report.

We were discussing building portfolios using things like our Top Trade Alerts in yesterday's Live Trading Webinar and it occurred to me that we haven't done a review since July so I think we have some catching up to do – especially as we haven't finished reviewing 2017's trade ideas yet.  We're usually about 6-9 months behind because our Top Trade Alerts are usually for long-term opportunities, not short-term set-ups.  

So far, through October, we had 40 winning trade ideas and 6 losers for a very nice 86.9% winning percentage and the Sept/Oct trades had made $59,615 by July.  As usual, our losing trades tend to turn into winners and one of our losers was Celgene (CELG) but they popped right back from a $425 loss to, currently, a $250 gain but that's only "on track" for our projected $13,000 gain if all goes well so STILL great for a new trade entry – our losers often make the best future winners – that's why these reviews are important!  

That brings us up to 41 winners and 5 losers for an 89% winning percentage for 2017 so far and I very much doubt we'll beat that into the year's close – but let's find out together as we review our November and December Top Trade Ideas to finish out the year.  Of course, it's a fairly arbitrary snap-shot to see how 2-year trades are doing at any given point in time but I find that 6-12 months is a good time to make adjustments if necessary as you still have more than a year to recover and you have 2-3 quarters of earnings to give us better information to make our decisions on.

That's right, we are FUNDAMENTAL investors so we tend not to pay attention to the day to day BS the market does.  Often if a stock we like gets cheaper, we buy MORE because, if you're not going to buy low – when are you going to buy?  

Thursday, Nov 2nd was a busy day as we sent out a Top Trade Alert for 3 stocks;  TEVA, M & CBI:


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Philstockworld July Portfolio Review (Members Only)

Image result for one million dollars animated gif$847,359!  

Now we're up $247,359 (41.2%) in our paired Long-Term and Short-Term Portfolios and that's up $29,398 from our last review.  We keep trying to cash out but, when push comes to shove, we have so many well-balanced positions that we love in our paired LTP/STP portfolios, we end up keeping almost everythign and, so far so good as the bonus money pours in.  As I said last month, as long as the indexes are holding their 50-day moving averages, we're not in immediate danger and this market seems to shake off everything that's thrown at it – so far.

Once again we tried to cash out some winners from the LTP/STP but still so much money to be made and working so well – we don't want to screw it up.  So we doubled down on some of our STP hedges (using about 1/3 of the LTP profits) but we are keeping one hand firmly on the exit at all times as there is far too much uncertainty this month (Aug) to risk what anyone would say are already a nice year's gains.

We still have $297,758 in cash and about $1M in margin remainin in our Long-Term Portfolio, so we're very flexible and that portfolio is our MOST invested.  I'm still very risk-adverse in this market and yes, we could be making more if we were more aggressive but then again, we could blow it too – and that is what we're trying to avoid. 

In fact, people wonder why, in our Hedge Fund, we're "only" up about 10% in the first half but that's because we are making sure we don't LOSE money in our first year – or we'll start with a poor track record and that's death for the fund.  So, playing the longer game – we make SURE we make 20%, which makes us one of the best performing funds in America and THEN we get more money and THEN we get a bit more aggressive but, for our first year – it's all about not losing money. 

Over the long run – 20-40%


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Philstockworld July Top Trade Review

Image result for top trade ideasYes, this is Wednesday morning's PSW Report.

I don't have much to say about the markets this morning, other than "I told you so" as they give up the week's gains on more Trade War nonsense that we KNEW was coming (see yesterday's morning Report for my warnings about following that idiocy).   We'll see what holds today and we'll make adjustments in chat and in this afternoon's Live Trading Webinar – so no need to talk about what an idiot the President is here, right?   What we do need to do is bargain-hunt in case it's another shallow sell-off and we need to add more longs and the best way to do that is to look back on past trade ideas and see if we can find some that haven't gone up yet.  

We did our last Top Trade Review in Aprilso it's a good time to do one of those and, as our Members well know, the vast majority of those trades turn positive so, when they're not, it's usually just a matter of time.  As of the April review, we had looked at Top Trades that were initiated through last August and, out of 36 Top Trade Ideas in 35 weeks, we had 29 winners and 7 losers for a very solid 80.55% winning percentatge.  In fact, our only loser in July was TEVA, who have since recovered completely and turned into a winner and THAT is why these reviews are so valuable – those "losing trades" often turn into the best opportunities:

Our Top Trades are what we think are our best trade ideas of the week with the highest chances of winning and we send out Alerts to our Members via Text and Email but we don't have a specific portfolio for them as they ofen ended up in one of our 5 various Member Portfolios already.  

There's a bit of randomness to the reviews in that we check in on trades after roughly 6 months so they are usually in progress and may be randomly up or down at the moment but that's why these reviews are so great for identifying bargains that simply haven't
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Philstockworld June Portfolio Review (Members Only)

Image result for one million dollars animated gif$817,961!  

Now we're up $217,961 (36%) in our paired Long-Term and Short-Term Portfolios and that's up $44,185 from our last review, when I said I'd rather cash out than continue to risk our, at the time, 28.9% gains.  Since we didn't cash out, we pressed our hedges AND since the market kept going up, we added more longs and, so far – it's all working out.  As I said last month, as long as the indexes are holding their 50-day moving averages, we're not in immediate danger and this market seems to shake off everything that's thrown at it – so far.

On the whole, we haven't made too many adjustments to any of our portfolios this month as they are on a very good track and fairly well-balanced.  Do keep in mind that we are failing (so far) at the lower high of 2,800 on the S&P (/ES), but once we're over that line – we have to seriously consider a whole new leg of the rally may be forming.

We still have $369,258 in cash and about $1M in margin remainin in our Long-Term Portfolio, so we're very flexible and that portfolio is our MOST invested.  I'm still very risk-adverse in this market and yes, we could be making more if we were more aggressive but then again, we could blow it too – and that is what we're trying to avoid.  

Long-Term Portfolio Review (LTP) Part 1:  $643,761 is up an embarrassing $45,252 (9%) since our 5/17 review where I said I'd rather cash out ahead of the summer and come back in the fall.  Luckily, you guys didn't let me take a nice vacation and we still have all these positions, which we hedged more heavily in the STP (see earlier review).  Overall, we're up 28.8% for the year but that's 2% lower than yesterday – so it's a very volatile number and shouldn't be taken too seriously.  

Since we decided to stay in and since we had a lot of hedges, we picked up a bunch of new trades in the past month (always try to balance longs and shorts while selling premium). …
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Philstockworld May Portfolio Review (Members Only)

Image result for one million dollars animated gif$773,776! 

That's up $173,776 (28.9%) in our paired Long-Term and Short-Term Portfolios.  30% is a healthy goal for an entire year (and Berkshire Hathaway averages 16.3% per year) so I really, Really, REALLY would love to cash out at this point and take the summer off.  As I have said for the past two weeks, if it wasn't my job to teach people how to trade – including running portfolios during downturns – I would absolutely be cashing out and, to that point, both of my kids' college accounts are in CASH!!! and our Hedge Fund is 90% CASH!!! at the moment so, yes, that is what I would do with my own accounts!  

As long as the indexes are holding above their 50-day moving averages, we're not in immediate danger so, with what we're playing, I'm not going to hedge too heavily either – unless we get signs of a deeper breakdown.  This market seems to bounce back from everything but so did the market in 2007 – until it finally didn't.  It sure would have been nice to be sitting on the sidelines with 128.9% of your money back then, right!

As it stands, our Long-Term Portfolio has 62% of it's cash on the sideline while the STP has 90% on the sideline so we've got plenty to deploy in a downturn.  We just finished our reviews and, in the LTP, there was only one adjustment to make so we like all of our positions and are happy to add more to them if they get cheaper and there were no adjustments to make to the STP, so we're happy with our hedges as well…

Also, these are new portfolios, started Jan 2nd this year as we decided to cash in after our November Portfolio Review last year but we did follow through with my plan, which is why we're doing so well after just 4.5 months of trading in the new portfolios:

Really, I am sorry I've been so cautious but I could not, in good conscience, risk those spectacular gains into Q3 earnings and the Holidays.  We have a lot of open positions and they'd be difficult


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Philstockworld April Top Trade Review

Image result for top trade ideasYes, this is Monday morning's Report.

I don't have much to say about the markets, they are back near the highs and we'll see if they hold tomorrow, not today, as it's Monday and Monday's don't matter.  What we do need to do is bargain-hunt in case it is a real rally and the best way to do that is to look back on past trade ideas and see if we can find some that haven't gone up yet.  

We did our last Top Trade Review in Marchso it's a good time to do one of those and, as our Members well know, the vast majority of those trades turn positive so, when they're not, it's usually just a matter of time.  As of the March review, we had looked at Top Trades that were initiated through July and, out of 32 trade ideas in 30 weeks, we had 24 winners and 8 losers but 2 of the winners turned around by Sept and that left is with 26 wins and 6 losses for a very solid 81.25% winning percentatge.

Our Top Trades are what we think are our best trade ideas of the week with the highest chances of winning and we send out Alerts to our Members via Text and Email but we don't have a specific portfolio for them as they ofen ended up in one of our 5 various Member Portfolios already.  

There's a bit of randomness to the reviews in that we check in on trades after roughly 6 months so they are usually in progress and may be randomly up or down at the moment but that's why these reviews are so great for identifying bargains that simply haven't made a move yet.  These are the Top Trade Ideas for August and September:

Tuesday, Aug 1st: Teva (TEVA) – We felt TEVA has bottomed out in early Aug but we were wrong and it did go a lot lower before bouncing back.  Our trade idea was:

As a new


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Philstockworld Top Trade Review

Image result for top trade ideasYes, this is Monday morning's Report.

I don't have much to say about the markets, they are back near the highs and we'll see if they hold tomorrow, not today, as it's Monday and Monday's don't matter.  What we do need to do is bargain-hunt in case it is a real rally and the best way to do that is to look back on past trade ideas and see if we can find some that haven't gone up yet.  

We haven't done a Top Trade Review since the end of Sept so it's a good time to do one of those and, as our Members well know, the vast majority of those trades turn positive so, when they're not, it's usually just a matter of time.  As of the September review, we had looked at Top Trades that were initiated in the first half of the year and, out of 27 trade ideas in 26 weeks, we had 21 winners and 6 losers but 2 of the winners turned around by Sept and that left is with 28 wins and 3 losses for a wonderful 90.3% winning percentatge.

Let's start by taking a look at our two losers and see how they are doing:

Tesla (TSLA) had jumped to $390 in Sept and though it was back to $340 by the 30th, we were worried about the 3 short Oct $300 calls we had sold for $30 were $43.50 so we rolled them ($13,050) to 4 short Jan $340 calls at $31.20 ($12,480) for net $570 less than the $9,000 we collected and THOSE short calls expired at $10.02 ($4,080) so we ended up with a net profit of $4,350 on that "loser" trade.  

Chesapeake Energy (CHK) is still a big loser and we still have the adjusted position (30 2020 $4 puts at $1.25 (now $1.56) and 20 short 2020 $2.50/5.50 bull call spreads at $1.25, now 0.85) so we are still down on them and I would now double down on the 2020 $250 calls at $1.35 and wait for a bounce to sell 20 more $5.50s for $1 (now 0.40)

IMax (IMAX) is running out of time to…
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Phil's Favorites

No Free Lunch, Part 2

 

Picture via Pixabay

No Free Lunch, Part 2

Courtesy of John Mauldin, Thoughts from the Frontline 

Matching the stock market’s long-term average returns sounds like it should be easy, if you’re patient enough. But in fact it is remarkably difficult. In last week’s letter, Ed Easterling and I showed you why it is a longshot bet in almost every market environment. Returns over a decade or two are usually well above or well below average. Most of all, it’s fairly predictable which side of average will occur.

This has serious...



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Zero Hedge

San Francisco's 'Super Rich' Dominate A Widening US Wealth Divide

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

San Francisco is one of the few places in America where software engineers who earn hundreds of thousands of dollars a year routinely suffer the indignity of accidentally stepping in a steaming pile of human feces as they exit their crappy, overpriced one-bedroom apartments in the Mission District to grab a $20 burrito and $10 latte. That's part of SF's charm. After all, there's a reason it is, by some measures, the most unaffordable major city in the country.

...



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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Mar 24, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

It was looking like another week of Federal Reserve Kool Aid and crushing bears .. until Friday.  On the back of bad economic news out Europe, the yield curve inverted on the 3 month vs 10 year bond – before you fall asleep to that news, it is a quite important indicator for the economy (not necessarily the stock market… yet).   More on that in a bit.  As you can see the action in the bond market Friday was quite severe so it will be interesting to see the move in the coming few days.

As for the Federal Reserve:

The Federal Reserve signaled no more increase in interest rates this year and just one in 2020, according to its new ‘dot plot,’ and the bank said it would...



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ValueWalk

Micron this week was the poster child for this "bull-trap" lunacy

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

From Crescat Capital

Thursday had the feel of a blow-off top for the bear market rally. We are near historic valuations for US stocks across at least eight fundamental measures and at a record late stage in the business cycle. Equity markets appear more stretched relative to underlying deteriorating fundamentals than ever.

Micron this week was the poster child for this “bull-trap” lunacy. Investors bid Micron’s stock up 10% on Thursday after the company released earnings. The move sent the semiconductor index to a record high on Thursday. The truth was that Micron gave terrible forward guidance on the conference call forcing analysts to slash estimates for revenues, earnings, and free cash flow for 2019 and 2020.

Friday the market start...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

NYSE Index Suggesting The Top Is In, Says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Is a very broad stock index suggesting that a top is in play? What this index does to close this week should go a long way to answering that question!

This chart looks at the NYSE Index on a weekly basis over the past 4-years. Over the past 15-months, it has created a series of lower highs and lower lows inside of the shaded falling channel. It hit strong support around Christmas at (1) and a counter-trend rally started. The rally now has it testing the top of the falling channel at (2).

Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am- The NYSE index could be cre...



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Insider Scoop

10 Biggest Price Target Changes For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga.

  • Buckingham cut the price target for Trinity Industries Inc (NYSE: TRN) from $32 to $26. Trinity Industries shares closed at $22.96 on Thursday.
  • Canaccord Genuity lowered the price target for Biogen Inc (NASDAQ: BIIB) from $396 to $275. Biogen shares closed at $226.88 on Thursday.
  • H.C. Wainwright cut the price target on Conatus Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ: CNAT) from $8 to $1.50. Conatus Pharmaceuticals shares closed at $2.91 on Thursday.
  • Wedb...


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Biotech

Marijuana is a lot more than just THC - a pharmacologist looks at the untapped healing compounds

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Marijuana is a lot more than just THC - a pharmacologist looks at the untapped healing compounds

Assorted cannabis bud strains. Roxana Gonzalez/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of James David Adams, University of Southern California

Medical marijuana is legal in 33 states as of November 2018. Yet the federal government still insists marijuana has no legal u...



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Digital Currencies

Facebook's cryptocurrency: a financial expert breaks it down

 

Facebook's cryptocurrency: a financial expert breaks it down

Grejak/Shutterstock

Courtesy of Alistair Milne, Loughborough University

Facebook is reportedly preparing to launch its own version of Bitcoin, for use in its messaging applications, WhatsApp, Messenger and Instagram. Could this “Facecoin” be the long-awaited breakthrough by a global technology giant into the lucrative market for retail financial services? Or will...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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