Archive for the ‘Virtual Portfolio Review’ Category

Top Trade Tuesday – Q3 2020

Our Top Trade Alerts are very popular. 

That's not surprising since, in the first half of 2020, we had 27 out of 28 winning trades that made $503,547 as of our last review.  That's a very successful set of trades and that is, of course, completely untouched as we don't go back and adjust Top Trade Alerts – they are high-value plays that are meant to stand on their own – though many of them do go into our Member Portfolios, of course.  

Top Trade Reviews are very useful when you are looking for trade ideas to fill in portfolio gaps.  Looking at the last review, I see IMAX has sold off again (Delta virus), HMY (Gold pullback), BBBY,  CAKE (Delta) and  ALK (Delta).  PRESTO!  We have a new watch list.  Now we can go back and see if the Fundamentals of our recently-winning stocks have actually changed or it's just the sentiment.  

As you know, we've been very cautious with our picks in the past month as we have been worried about the Delta Virus (and all the other varients still to come).  Covid may be like the Flu, it will hit us year after year and we'll just get used to 0.1% of our population dying each year – as opposed to 0.02% currently killed by the flu.  It's still a lot less than Cancer or Heart Disease as a cause of death – and people still smoke, drink and eat bad foods..

Top Trades for Thu, 23 Jul 2020 10:19 – T

Finally a Top Trade Alert!  T pays a $2.08 dividend at 0.52/quarter so it's great to own the stock but it also means we can just be aggressive in establishing a position since we'd be happy to own it, right?

  • Sell 10 T 2022 $28 puts


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Top Trade Tuesday – Q2 2020

Another low-volume week, so a good time to review.

Last Tuesday, we went over our Top Trade Ideas from Q1 of last year and we had one loser and 15 winners with a net of $271,087 in profits over the past 18 months (or less).  A few of them are even good for new trades – even now – like Viacom (VIAC), which had another 100% left to gain as of last Tuesday at net $10,100 and now it's $13,800 so up $3,700 (37%) in a week is not bad for a leftover, is it?  

Again, you don't need to make short-term trades in dangerous momentum stocks to make fantastic short-term money.  Using our system, it's just as exciting when a value stock pops – even when we have long-term contracts on them.  

The difference is we aren't taking those huge short-term risks that can damage your portfolio.  When something unforseen happens, we can ride it out.  Remember, Top Trade Alerts are trades we feel have a very strong chance of success.  Generally we pick them because they have both a long-term macro trend in their favor as well as upcoming catalysts and, as alwasy – first and foremost we're looking for VALUE.

Top Trades for Thu, 02 Apr 2020 12:58 – CMCSA

For the LTP:

  • Sell 5 CMCSA 2022 $30 puts for $5 ($2,500) 
  • Buy 15 CMCSA 2022 $30 calls for $8.25 ($12,375) 


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Tuesday – Top Trade Review – Q1 2020

Not much is happening so let's review our Top Trade Alerts and see how they're doing.

Top Trade Alerts are trade ideas I feel have an excellent chance of success.  Usually they are news-driven – trades on stocks I expect to make a move in the near future – not just a simple value play.  Nonetheless, we set them up as long-term value trades as we don't need to make short-term bets to get great short-term results.  However, we do need a few months so we're not going to look at the most recent trade ideas.  

Since January of 2020 there have been over 60 Top Trade Ideas, not quite one per week.  The secret to the success of our Top Trade Alerts, which historically have an 70%+ win rate, is that we DON'T just pick trades because we feel we have to.  We try to pick one a week but some weeks we pick 3 and some we pick none.  Forcing trades to fulfill arbitrary expectations is the downfall of many market newsletters.  

We don't make our Top Trade Alerts complicated (and you can sign up here to get them fresh), they are generally "set and forget" trades for the less active traders, who just want to build a good portfolio one trade at a time.   We won't get this review done all at once but let's start getting through our trades starting in Jan of 2020 – as it will be interesting to see how we rode out the crash and recovery.  

In the interest of space, I'm just going to reprint the actual trade and the chart, not the commentary, which you can see by following the links.  We're going to assume no adjustments were made and just see how the positions performed.

Top Trades for Mon, 06 Jan 2020 14:53 – HRB

I guess it would be a good Butterfly candidate but it stays down too long so we generally just play it bullish into April.  March earnings are not likely to be exciting but, for the Earnings Portfolio, let's play HRB like


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PhilStockWorld June Portfolio Review

Image result for one million dollars animated gifImage result for one million dollars animated gif$2,147,243!  

That's actually DOWN $5,530 since our last review as our Short-Term Portfolio (our hedges) took a pretty good hit on the recent rally.  That's fine as I'd rather have a relaxing summer not worried about losing these ridiculous gains so parking the portfolio in neutral into earnings was a sensible way to play.  

We gained $186,448 (almost 10%) in the previous month so locking that in was a good goal but now we're past earnings and past the Fed and we'll have to decide what to do next.  We're already 50% in CASH!!! and we love our positions and we even added a few new ones to the LTP over the past month as we have that Fear Of Missing Out disease that's rampant among the investing population.

Still, our overall portfolio performance is a barometer and we can sense changes coming when we can't make money but, as I said, the LTP itself gained $38,000 over the past month, it's the STP that dragged our paired portfolios lower – but that's what it's supposed to do in a bull market – this just indicates we played the month a bit too bearish so we can either hedge less (no way!) or add some more longs.  That's a work in progress.

In our last review, we got more aggressive on BABA and SKT and, since then, we added new trades on AFL, CIM, FNF, HAL, MO, RIO, SC and VLO – so it's been a pretty busy month – even though it seems pretty dull day to day.   Here's the LTP update:

 

  • TTE – Was TOT and they haven't fixed the options yet so those are missing.  Love this company but currently toppy.  

  • Short Puts – These are essentially a watch list of stocks we'd like to buy if they get cheaper.  We just pulled the trigger on RIO, turning it into a full spead from a short put.  We have collected $117,050 for promising to buy 17 stocks if they get cheaper and, if they don't get cheaper, we keep the money.  The remaining net is $76,368 so that's what's left to gain if


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PhilStockWorld February Portfolio Review – Part 2

Image for postDoes trading have to be exciting?  

While the market remains at all-time highs, I remain skeptical and a lot of that is because I allowed myself to become complacent in 2007, after having missed the rally of 1999 because that, too, was ridiculous.  In retrospect I was right – but not until March of 2000 and I could have had some fun betting on anything with a pulse in 1999 so, when 2007 came along – I finally went with the flow and, while we had pretty good timing in 2008 getting out on top – a lot of people didn't.  So I guess, this time around, I just want to make sure nobody gets burned when this thing collapses.  

We are all shaped by our past and we all run our own gauntlets to become the people we are today.  I know I trade like an old man because I learned from my Grandfather, Max Davis, who was born in 1903 and, in 1973, 10 year-old me laid on the floor on Sundays with the stock section of the paper laid out on the floor (you only got stock reports on Sundays back then), circling companies that made new highs or new lows so we could later investigate why it was happening and then Grandpa would do his Fundamental Analysis of the companies (often including actually visiting the company) to decide if there were any hidden values there.  

Having lived (in England) through World War 1, the Pandemic that followed, the Great Depression and World War II, Grandpa Max had seen a lot of shit – and he was very good at conveying his experiences to me from both a Social and Economic perspective.  Though he never went to college, Grandpa Max was a voracious reader and a very sharp businessman.  Learning from him always gave me a long-term and patient perspective on stocks and, since we only got stock news on Sundays anyway – you learn to be patient by default.  

So of course, growing up, I gravitated to books by Jeremy Grantham (also British) and Warren Buffett and that's my "style" – value investing but my twist on it (as I'm 30 years younger) is to use options for hedging and leverage – rather than just trying to…
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PhilStockWorld February Portfolio Review

Image result for one million dollars animated gif$1,766,591!  

Our paired Long & Short-Term Portfolios have gained $157,564 since our January Review and that is, of course, ridiculous and reflective of this ridiculous bubble rally.  The LTP went up and the loss of the STP went down – even as we increased our hedging.  That's because we sell a lot of premium and the premium decays regardless of the market direction.  Time is our friend using this strategy.  

Also, we have SUBSTANTIAL amounts of CASH!!! across all of our portfolios as we think this entire market is BS and will collapse at some point.  At least 2 or 3 days each week I wake up wanting to just cash out and go on vacation – only I can't go on vacation and I'd be bored so we stay invested – but that's a really stupid reason to risk your assets if this is money that is critical to your future.  

The S&P 500 is up almost 100% from it's March lows and yes, that was a 35% drop from the February highs but now we're 20% above those (3,393) and it's simply too far, too fast so we're being very careful with our positions and very aggressive with our hedges.  In our last STP Review, we determined we had a good $300,000 worth of protection and we only have $551,828 worth of position in our LTP – that is well-covered!  

We added new longs however in the LTP on BABA, GOLD, OIH, TOT, VLO, WPM and WU in the past 30 days as we've been enjoying earnings season and the bargains it brings.  We still have $1,057,650 of CASH!!! sitting on the sidelines and we've sold very few naked puts so we also have tons of margin to play with.  On the whole, we'd love a good crash – so we can go bargain-hunting.  I will repeat what I said back on December 16th as the strategy still holds and, after making 10% for the month, perhaps more people will pay attention:

We have 33% less


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Philstockworld January Portfolio Review

Image result for one million dollars animated gif$1,609,027! 

Our combined portfolios are up over $1M (166%) in just over a year and the best thing is our Long-Term Portfolio (LTP) is back to about 50% CASH!!! – and you know I love my CASH!!!  In fact, we only made a couple of adjustments but let's please consider what happened to the 21 remaining positions since our Dec 16th review, where I said:  

We have 33% less positions, so it's easier to adjust if we do have a correction and we have 33% less longs for our Short-Term Portfolio to protect – lowering our insurance costs as well.  Those are the "consequences" we've suffered from "missing out" on a fantastic rally.  Certainly it's been a lot more relaxing and I aim to keep it that way into the New Year – just in case.  

So next time you feel compelled to trade due to a Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) – keep in mind – missing out on what?  We already made FANTASTIC returns for the year – why risk it just to make a tiny bit more?  

Did we miss out by cutting our positions?  No!  A month later the EXACT same positions are at $1,513,928 – gaining $113,643 (8.1%) in 27 days – and that's from a half CASH!!! position!  People say why don't we do a lot of new trades and I keep saying what trades could possibly be better than the ones we already have?  These are the remaining positions that ran the gauntlet of 2020 and were the best of the best of a portfolio that's now up 202.8% in 14 months.  Making gains like this with conservative plays in a toppy market is as much as we could ever hope for at this stage of the rally.

And that's not including the $300,000 we took off the table when we closed down our old Short-Term Portfolio (STP) and our new STP is down 52.8% but,…
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Philstockworld November Portfolio Review

Image result for one million dollars animated gif$1,486,878!

Although that's down a bit from our October Portfolio Review, that's only because we cashed out the old Short-Term Portfolio back on October 28th and we didn't carry the gains forward due to a discrepancy arising from the Tesla (TSLA) split so we reset the STP to $200,000 from $620,909 so really, we've made incredible gains in the last month as the LTP was only $974,283 on the day we re-set – as we got heavily bullish during that mini-crash.

As is has been all year, our timing was pretty perfect and the LTP has rocketed back from $974,283 to $1,295,033 as of Tuesday's review, which is up $320,750 (33%) in 33 days as the S&P flew back from 3,250 to 3,600 (up 10.7%).  Of course that's ridiculous and of course we were lucky to time it perfectly so OF COURSE we took the money and ran on Tuesday, cashing in 40% of our LTP positions – enough is enough!  

As the great stock trader, Kenny Rogers tells us:

You've got to know when to hold 'em

Know when to fold 'em

Know when to walk away

And know when to run

You never count your money

When you're sittin' at the table

There'll be time enough for countin'

When the dealin's done

S&P 3,600 is certainly enough and certainly too much to risk as we're up more than 50% in 4 years (thank you, Mr. Trump – now LEAVE!) and that's more than double the usual 8% you can expect to gain annually and maybe it will keep going and maybe it won't but we're very confident we can make more money if the bull cycle…
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Philstockworld September Portfolio Review

Image result for one million dollars animated gif$1,199,597!

That is DOWN $195,130 for our paired portfolios for the month, but still up over 100% for the year.  We have a very large, very volatile bet on Tesla (TSLA) that we're riding out and that let both to last month's huge gain and this month's huge loss but last month showed us the massive potential the position has as it's currently net -$881,087 so, if TSLA ends up between $300 and $380 in January (now $450), we stand to almost double our entire portfolio on that one position.   

I was going to say I don't like the super-volatile positions but that's not true – I do like them as we're selling TONS of premium to people who think stocks go up or down forever and have no rules but I DON'T like them in margin-limited portfolio or in portfolios that aren't miles ahead and can afford to take chances.  Not only can we afford to take a chance this year but we're also locking in our 100% gains using TSLA as it pays us almost as much to the downside ($881,087) as our entire Long-Term Portfolio (LTP) is worth ($1,043,965)! 

But, spoilers, let's just take a look at where we stand and move on from there.  As we expected, the Fed and Congress have fired their stimulus guns this week and the reaction from the market has been a big shrug as evidenced by the shouldering down move in the S&P 500 this week:

While that's going on, Donald Trump's victim count is hitting 200,000 but that's nothing compared to what we're about to see as our kids finish their second week at school as two weeks is just about the time when it's already too late and local Governments realize what a huge mistake re-opening too early has been.  While we know Trump doesn't care about California and New York having 100,000 combined deaths this year, he'll be losing 60,000 voters in Florida and Texas as well.  

Early indications are that sending the kids back to school is already becoming a "super-spreader" event for the whole country and 50,000
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Philstockworld August Portfolio Review

Image result for one million dollars animated gif$1,394,727!

That's up $260,972 (23%) since June (up 132% for the year) as of Augst 18th and yes, I've had a very busy summer and haven't kept up on the review summaries – sorry.   Honestly, if it wasn't for the virus, I'd be on a cruise this summer – we decided the market was too high on Memorial Day and now it's after Labor Day and we're even higher so yes, we made good money staying home but, on the whole, I would have much rather have spent the summer with my family enjoying Europe, wouldn't you?

That was our plan, we were supposed to go to Scandanavia on a 14-day cruise and I was really looking forward to it but, like most plans this year, they've been cancelled and, like most things this year, the markets have completely ignored it.  We've been ignoring the market for the past month and our main LTP/STP combination is pretty rock-steady at $1.4M and we cut about 20% of our positions in August, raising more cash and making our downside hedges more effective (as they are the same but we have less to protect). 

We had one nice dip but nothing too exciting and it's back to school I've been worried about as I think it's been a huge mistake but it's only week one – so not too many results are in yet.  This week is also the big "Quad Witching" quartely expirations for options and Futures contracts so things could get crazy and we'll be doing our portfolio adjustments this week – probably aiming for even more CASH!!! (have I mentioned how much I like CASH!!! lately?).  

Not only that but the Fed makes their announcement on Wednesday and Powell speaks at 2:30 that day AND we have the Retail Sales Report at 8:30 Wednesday as well.  Have I mentioned how much I like CASH!!! lately?  

So here's what we were thinking 30 days ago and stay tuned this week for our Live Portfolio Adjustments (Member Only):

Short-Term Portfolio Review (STP):  No point in riding out the dip if we don't have to so we're going to raise more CASH!!! and there are plenty of great stocks to buy, like WBA, INTC, BA and…
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Phil's Favorites

How Netflix affects what we watch and who we are - and it's not just the algorithm

 

How Netflix affects what we watch and who we are – and it’s not just the algorithm

pixinoo / Shutterstock

Courtesy of David Beer, University of York

Netflix’s dystopian Korean drama Squid Game has become the streaming platform’s biggest-ever series launch, with 111 million viewers watching at least two minutes of an episode.

Out of the thousands of programmes available on Netflix globally, how did so ...



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Zero Hedge

Where Are We In The Market Cycle?

Courtesy of Jesse Felder, TheFelderReport.com

(The following blog post was adapted from a recent Market Comment featured on The Felder Report PREMIUM, as published at ZeroHedge)

Lately, I’ve started to notice many signs suggesting we are now well past the peak in risk appetites. To begin with, Citi’s panic/euphoria model, developed by Tobias Levkovich (and renamed in his honor after he sadly passed away last weekend), is a terrific visual representation of this phenomenon. In the early part of this year, it soared to ...



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Politics

Steve Bannon faces criminal charges over Jan. 6 panel snub, setting up a showdown over executive privilege

 

Steve Bannon faces criminal charges over Jan. 6 panel snub, setting up a showdown over executive privilege

Defiant or following Trump’s direction? John Lamparski/NurPhoto via Getty Images

Courtesy of Kirsten Carlson, Wayne State University

The House committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol is tasked with providing as full an account as possible of the attempted insurrection. But there is a problem: Not everyone is cooperating.

As of Oct. 14, 2021, Steve Bannon, a one-tim...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Ivermectin is a Nobel Prize-winning wonder drug - but not for COVID-19

 

Ivermectin is a Nobel Prize-winning wonder drug – but not for COVID-19

While ivermectin was originally used to treat river blindness, it has also been repurposed to treat other human parasitic infections. ISSOUF SANOGO/AFP via Getty Images

Courtesy of Jeffrey R. Aeschlimann, University of Connecticut

Ivermectin is an over 30-year-old wonder drug that treats life- and sight-threatening parasitic infections. Its lasting influence on global health has been so profound...



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Digital Currencies

Is This the Way?

 

Is This the Way?

Courtesy of 

A listener asked something that’s on a lot of investors’ minds? Should I be taking way more risk?

I’m 34 y/o and a couple of years ago a friend of mine took enormous financial risk, betting his life savings on obscure crypto coins (Elrond and Fantom). The bet paid off and he has managed to turn $30k into $6 million. Can you please help me make sense of this? I have always considered myself to be financially responsible, saving a large percentage every month for retirement.

I’m concerned I’m being too responsible and need to incorporate more risk into my portfolio. My Roth IRA/403(b) is...



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Chart School

Gold getting ready to move

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

By Xmas 2021 the DEM's must set a foundation for their run in US Mid Terms late in 2022. The DEM's have a few narrative problems, but one they wish to avoid is a 'stock market crash'. They must produce enough juice for the economy to hold up into the mid term elections.

In short it is more debt, a  higher debt ceiling, and more debt for the FED to buy, a larger balance sheet for the FED. This means hard currency remains in a uptrend and higher prices will be soon upon us.





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Promotions

Phil's Interview on Options Trading with TD Bank

TD Bank's host Bryan Rogers interviewed Phil on June 10 as part of TD's Options Education Month. If you missed the program, be sure to watch the video below. It should be required viewing for anyone trading or thinking about trading using options. 

Watch here:

TD's webinar with Phil (link) or right here at PSW

Screenshots of TD's slides illustrating Phil's examples:

 

 

&n...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Crude Oil Cleared For Blast Off On This Dual Breakout?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is Crude Oil about to blast off and hit much higher prices? It might be worth being aware of what could be taking place this month in this important commodity!

Crude Oil has created lower highs over the past 13-years, since peaking back in 2008, along line (1).

It created a “Double Top at (2), then it proceeded to decline more than 60% in four months.

The countertrend rally in Crude Oil has it attempting to break above its 13-year falling resistance as well as its double top at (3).

A successful breakout at (3) would suggest Crude Oil is about to mo...



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ValueWalk

Managing Investments As A Charity Or Nonprofit

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Maintaining financial viability is a constant challenge for charities and nonprofit organizations.

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The past year has underscored that challenge. The pandemic has not just affected investment returns – it’s also had serious implications for charitable activities and the ability to fundraise. For some organizations, it’s even raised doubts about whether they can continue to operate.

Finding ways to generate long-term, sustainable returns for ...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.