Archive for the ‘Virtual Portfolio Review’ Category

PhilStockWorld February Portfolio Review – Part 2

Image for postDoes trading have to be exciting?  

While the market remains at all-time highs, I remain skeptical and a lot of that is because I allowed myself to become complacent in 2007, after having missed the rally of 1999 because that, too, was ridiculous.  In retrospect I was right – but not until March of 2000 and I could have had some fun betting on anything with a pulse in 1999 so, when 2007 came along – I finally went with the flow and, while we had pretty good timing in 2008 getting out on top – a lot of people didn't.  So I guess, this time around, I just want to make sure nobody gets burned when this thing collapses.  

We are all shaped by our past and we all run our own gauntlets to become the people we are today.  I know I trade like an old man because I learned from my Grandfather, Max Davis, who was born in 1903 and, in 1973, 10 year-old me laid on the floor on Sundays with the stock section of the paper laid out on the floor (you only got stock reports on Sundays back then), circling companies that made new highs or new lows so we could later investigate why it was happening and then Grandpa would do his Fundamental Analysis of the companies (often including actually visiting the company) to decide if there were any hidden values there.  

Having lived (in England) through World War 1, the Pandemic that followed, the Great Depression and World War II, Grandpa Max had seen a lot of shit – and he was very good at conveying his experiences to me from both a Social and Economic perspective.  Though he never went to college, Grandpa Max was a voracious reader and a very sharp businessman.  Learning from him always gave me a long-term and patient perspective on stocks and, since we only got stock news on Sundays anyway – you learn to be patient by default.  

So of course, growing up, I gravitated to books by Jeremy Grantham (also British) and Warren Buffett and that's my "style" – value investing but my twist on it (as I'm 30 years younger) is to use options for hedging and leverage – rather than just trying to…
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PhilStockWorld February Portfolio Review

Image result for one million dollars animated gif$1,766,591!  

Our paired Long & Short-Term Portfolios have gained $157,564 since our January Review and that is, of course, ridiculous and reflective of this ridiculous bubble rally.  The LTP went up and the loss of the STP went down – even as we increased our hedging.  That's because we sell a lot of premium and the premium decays regardless of the market direction.  Time is our friend using this strategy.  

Also, we have SUBSTANTIAL amounts of CASH!!! across all of our portfolios as we think this entire market is BS and will collapse at some point.  At least 2 or 3 days each week I wake up wanting to just cash out and go on vacation – only I can't go on vacation and I'd be bored so we stay invested – but that's a really stupid reason to risk your assets if this is money that is critical to your future.  

The S&P 500 is up almost 100% from it's March lows and yes, that was a 35% drop from the February highs but now we're 20% above those (3,393) and it's simply too far, too fast so we're being very careful with our positions and very aggressive with our hedges.  In our last STP Review, we determined we had a good $300,000 worth of protection and we only have $551,828 worth of position in our LTP – that is well-covered!  

We added new longs however in the LTP on BABA, GOLD, OIH, TOT, VLO, WPM and WU in the past 30 days as we've been enjoying earnings season and the bargains it brings.  We still have $1,057,650 of CASH!!! sitting on the sidelines and we've sold very few naked puts so we also have tons of margin to play with.  On the whole, we'd love a good crash – so we can go bargain-hunting.  I will repeat what I said back on December 16th as the strategy still holds and, after making 10% for the month, perhaps more people will pay attention:

We have 33% less


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Philstockworld January Portfolio Review

Image result for one million dollars animated gif$1,609,027! 

Our combined portfolios are up over $1M (166%) in just over a year and the best thing is our Long-Term Portfolio (LTP) is back to about 50% CASH!!! – and you know I love my CASH!!!  In fact, we only made a couple of adjustments but let's please consider what happened to the 21 remaining positions since our Dec 16th review, where I said:  

We have 33% less positions, so it's easier to adjust if we do have a correction and we have 33% less longs for our Short-Term Portfolio to protect – lowering our insurance costs as well.  Those are the "consequences" we've suffered from "missing out" on a fantastic rally.  Certainly it's been a lot more relaxing and I aim to keep it that way into the New Year – just in case.  

So next time you feel compelled to trade due to a Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) – keep in mind – missing out on what?  We already made FANTASTIC returns for the year – why risk it just to make a tiny bit more?  

Did we miss out by cutting our positions?  No!  A month later the EXACT same positions are at $1,513,928 – gaining $113,643 (8.1%) in 27 days – and that's from a half CASH!!! position!  People say why don't we do a lot of new trades and I keep saying what trades could possibly be better than the ones we already have?  These are the remaining positions that ran the gauntlet of 2020 and were the best of the best of a portfolio that's now up 202.8% in 14 months.  Making gains like this with conservative plays in a toppy market is as much as we could ever hope for at this stage of the rally.

And that's not including the $300,000 we took off the table when we closed down our old Short-Term Portfolio (STP) and our new STP is down 52.8% but,…
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Philstockworld November Portfolio Review

Image result for one million dollars animated gif$1,486,878!

Although that's down a bit from our October Portfolio Review, that's only because we cashed out the old Short-Term Portfolio back on October 28th and we didn't carry the gains forward due to a discrepancy arising from the Tesla (TSLA) split so we reset the STP to $200,000 from $620,909 so really, we've made incredible gains in the last month as the LTP was only $974,283 on the day we re-set – as we got heavily bullish during that mini-crash.

As is has been all year, our timing was pretty perfect and the LTP has rocketed back from $974,283 to $1,295,033 as of Tuesday's review, which is up $320,750 (33%) in 33 days as the S&P flew back from 3,250 to 3,600 (up 10.7%).  Of course that's ridiculous and of course we were lucky to time it perfectly so OF COURSE we took the money and ran on Tuesday, cashing in 40% of our LTP positions – enough is enough!  

As the great stock trader, Kenny Rogers tells us:

You've got to know when to hold 'em

Know when to fold 'em

Know when to walk away

And know when to run

You never count your money

When you're sittin' at the table

There'll be time enough for countin'

When the dealin's done

S&P 3,600 is certainly enough and certainly too much to risk as we're up more than 50% in 4 years (thank you, Mr. Trump – now LEAVE!) and that's more than double the usual 8% you can expect to gain annually and maybe it will keep going and maybe it won't but we're very confident we can make more money if the bull cycle…
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Philstockworld September Portfolio Review

Image result for one million dollars animated gif$1,199,597!

That is DOWN $195,130 for our paired portfolios for the month, but still up over 100% for the year.  We have a very large, very volatile bet on Tesla (TSLA) that we're riding out and that let both to last month's huge gain and this month's huge loss but last month showed us the massive potential the position has as it's currently net -$881,087 so, if TSLA ends up between $300 and $380 in January (now $450), we stand to almost double our entire portfolio on that one position.   

I was going to say I don't like the super-volatile positions but that's not true – I do like them as we're selling TONS of premium to people who think stocks go up or down forever and have no rules but I DON'T like them in margin-limited portfolio or in portfolios that aren't miles ahead and can afford to take chances.  Not only can we afford to take a chance this year but we're also locking in our 100% gains using TSLA as it pays us almost as much to the downside ($881,087) as our entire Long-Term Portfolio (LTP) is worth ($1,043,965)! 

But, spoilers, let's just take a look at where we stand and move on from there.  As we expected, the Fed and Congress have fired their stimulus guns this week and the reaction from the market has been a big shrug as evidenced by the shouldering down move in the S&P 500 this week:

While that's going on, Donald Trump's victim count is hitting 200,000 but that's nothing compared to what we're about to see as our kids finish their second week at school as two weeks is just about the time when it's already too late and local Governments realize what a huge mistake re-opening too early has been.  While we know Trump doesn't care about California and New York having 100,000 combined deaths this year, he'll be losing 60,000 voters in Florida and Texas as well.  

Early indications are that sending the kids back to school is already becoming a "super-spreader" event for the whole country and 50,000
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Philstockworld August Portfolio Review

Image result for one million dollars animated gif$1,394,727!

That's up $260,972 (23%) since June (up 132% for the year) as of Augst 18th and yes, I've had a very busy summer and haven't kept up on the review summaries – sorry.   Honestly, if it wasn't for the virus, I'd be on a cruise this summer – we decided the market was too high on Memorial Day and now it's after Labor Day and we're even higher so yes, we made good money staying home but, on the whole, I would have much rather have spent the summer with my family enjoying Europe, wouldn't you?

That was our plan, we were supposed to go to Scandanavia on a 14-day cruise and I was really looking forward to it but, like most plans this year, they've been cancelled and, like most things this year, the markets have completely ignored it.  We've been ignoring the market for the past month and our main LTP/STP combination is pretty rock-steady at $1.4M and we cut about 20% of our positions in August, raising more cash and making our downside hedges more effective (as they are the same but we have less to protect). 

We had one nice dip but nothing too exciting and it's back to school I've been worried about as I think it's been a huge mistake but it's only week one – so not too many results are in yet.  This week is also the big "Quad Witching" quartely expirations for options and Futures contracts so things could get crazy and we'll be doing our portfolio adjustments this week – probably aiming for even more CASH!!! (have I mentioned how much I like CASH!!! lately?).  

Not only that but the Fed makes their announcement on Wednesday and Powell speaks at 2:30 that day AND we have the Retail Sales Report at 8:30 Wednesday as well.  Have I mentioned how much I like CASH!!! lately?  

So here's what we were thinking 30 days ago and stay tuned this week for our Live Portfolio Adjustments (Member Only):

Short-Term Portfolio Review (STP):  No point in riding out the dip if we don't have to so we're going to raise more CASH!!! and there are plenty of great stocks to buy, like WBA, INTC, BA and…
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PhilStockWorld May Portfolio Review

Image result for one million dollars animated gif$1,133,755!

That's up $30,884 for our paired portfolios and just off our high of $1.2M – where I said we should just cash out and quit for the year – up 100% since October.  Since that's a boring way to spend the next 6 months – we decided to hedge the STP a bit more and let most of our LTP positions run but it was mission accomplished at May expirations (15th), to be flat(ish) to April (17th) as the S&P 500 finished 17 points lower for the earning period, which we were very worried about.   

As it turns out, the market shook everything off and now, as of yesterday's close (26th), the LTP is up 51.6% at $757,943 and the STP is still at $577,225 so now we're at $1,335,168 so our plan worked perfectly!  And what was the plan?  To keep the longs we felt would be making a recovery AFTER we got to see the earnings reports and AFTER we got a glimpse of how the Lockdown was resolving itself.  You know – WITH FACTS!  Facts are nice, they are very helpful in investing but sometimes you need to wait for clarity – a lot of people are not good at the waiting part…

Using hedges to park our portfolios more or less in neutral (back in April) while we waiting for more facts gave us the breathing room to relax and read and think about what trends mattered and that helped us make better decisions in May and now we're way past the previous highs.  And what are we going to do now?  HEDGE IT TO LOCK IN THESE GAINS!   See, these quizzes aren't hard…

Short-Term Portfolio (STP) Review:  

So hedging, hedging is key to maintaining our portfolios.  Our Long-Term Portfolio, which started the year at $500,000 had recovered well in our last review and was sitting at $542,305 almost a month ago and, since then, the S&P 500 has gone from 2,750 to 2,950 and our LTP has popped to $649,193…
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PhilStockWorld April Portfolio Review – Putting Our Strategies to the Test

Image result for one million dollars animated gif$1,102,871!

That's the combined value of our paired Long-Term and Short-Term Portfolios as of yesterday's close!  We began the STP with $100,000 back on October 1st and the STP was up to $153,498 in our January 7th Portfolio Review but the positions were turning into longer-term positions (because we kept the losers we had been working on) so we added $350,000 to the STP and renamed it the LTP and then we created a brand new STP with $100,000 on Jan 17th with the primary objective of hedging our LTP positions

This all came on the heels of cashing out our last round of Member Portfolios back in October, when the LTP/STP combo hit $2,606,756 after two very bullish years and we decided the markets were just too toppy to risk that much money so we cut back, deployed just $100,000 in the STP (also some other virtual portfolios were created) and, when that started going well, we got brave enough to deploy some LTP money – but only a fraction of what we had cashed out because the markets WERE STILL TOO TOPPY!

Keep in mind that the title of our October 2nd Review was: "PhilStockWorld September Portfolio Review – Cashing out of this Crazy Market!" in which I said:

Hedging a $1.7M LTP would be very expensive and what if next time we didn't time the turn in the STP and instead blew the turn and lost money there as well as the LTP.  Then we'd be back to $2M and needing to make 30% to get back to $2.6M and what if it's hard to make money next year or what if we have another crash and the market is down 40% – it's just too much to risk vs. putting $2.6M safely on the sidelines and simply looking for new opportunities.

Political Cartoon on Twitter: "Kal on Donald Trump loathing for ...Did I know that a viral pandemic would be the catalyst that would take down the global markets?  Of course not, but I did KNOW FOR A FACT that valuations were stretched and we had made a ridiculous amount of money in our Long-Term Portfolio (based on…
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PhilStockWorld March Portfolio Review

Image result for one million dollars animated gifWhat a crazy fist quarter it has been!

We cashed out our last set of winning portfolios back in September, as I did not trust the market into Q4 but the market kept going higher so we had too much FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) and we started playing again in October – albeit with much smaller amounts.  Our Long-Term/Short-Term paired portfolios had hit $2.6M after starting at $500,000/100,000 on Jan 2nd, 2016 and it was becomming too difficut to hedge so I said at the time:

Hedging a $1.7M LTP would be very expensive and what if next time we didn't time the turn in the STP and instead blew the turn and lost money there as well as the LTP.  Then we'd be back to $2M and needing to make 30% to get back to $2.6M and what if it's hard to make money next year or what if we have another crash and the market is down 40% – it's just too much to risk vs. putting $2.6M safely on the sidelines and simply looking for new opportunities.

Well, here we are, at the bottom of that 40% sell-off and, as expected, we're having to pull a bit more cash off the sidelines as some of our new portfolios got crushed.  This is going to be an odd review because we made more than one adjustment in the past two weeks on some portfolios and I'll do my best to consolidate all the moves here.  The bottom line is we got a lot more aggressive around March expirations (20th) and yesterday (23rd), as the market hit rock bottom, we went gung-ho bullish in our LTP and Butterfly Portfolios in anticipation of a massive Congressional Bail-Out Package.  

Hopefully, that provides a catalyst to form a floor at the 40% off line and we can consolidate between here and the 20% off (the top) lines, which is where the market should be in the first place – the rest was just fluff – that's why we cashed out in September – at S&P 3,000!  

Short-Term Portfolio Review (STP) (3/19):  $282,168 is up 182% so…
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PhilStockWorld January Portfolio Review

Image result for one million dollars animated gif$644,380!  

No we didn't make $500,000 – we actually lost about $9,000 in the past month as the TSLA trade blew up on us but that's our grand total now as we finally started a new Long-Term Portfolio (LTP) with $500,000 along with our Short-Term Portfolio (STP), that was at $144,380.  Generally, we've simply changed the STP to the LTP and moved the hedges out of the new LTP to the STP and added $400,000 in virtual cash to the LTP and NOW we are ready to get serious playing the market with our main, paired portfolios.  

Essentially, we made $44,380 while we've been waiting around for a good time to deploy more cash.  Of course we cashed in $3M last year so we're only re-deploying a small portion of it but that's appropriate for the still-uncertain market we're in now and, anyway, we started with the same $600,000 back in Jan, 2018 so it's much more fun to build it all up again, isn't it?  

Last month, we were worried about Iran and, frankly, I don't even remember why anymore as it's all about Coronavirus now although Trump's Impeachment still looms large in the background.  Still, it's earnings season and we've already fired off 4 Top Trade Alerts in January and last week we added a few early trades to the New LTP already. 

Here's this month's collections of our trade reviews from last week's Live Member Chat:

Short-Term Portfolio Review (STP) This is now the Long-Term Portfolio (LTP) and we'll make a new STP to cover these positions.  Mechanically, we're moving $400,000 into this portfolio and making a new $100,000 STP whose main function is to protect the new LTP (so looking more for bearish opportunities than bullish ones).  

The STP is at $144,380 and that's down $9,118 from our last review, pretty much entirely due to TSLA going off the rails on our short calls.  We'll deal with that and decide which positions stay and which ones go in our new LTP:

  • CBS – Keeper 
  • CSCO – Keeper 
  • M – Keeper 
  • CMG


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Zero Hedge

More States Are Seeing Unused COVID Jabs Pile Up As Poor Countries Shut Out

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

The other day, we reported on an interview with from Dr. Scott Gottlieb, a former director of the FDA under President Trump who frequently appears in the press to offer analysis and commentary on the rollout of the COVID vaccine, along with federal COVID policy more broadly.

Yesterday, the focus of the interview was a criticism lodged by Dr. Gottlieb against the Biden administration's target of 200MM Americans vaccinated by the end of the month. Hours after our post, Bloomberg News shared a startling piece of analysis: Across the US, unused vaccines ar...



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ValueWalk

Managing Investments As A Charity Or Nonprofit

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Maintaining financial viability is a constant challenge for charities and nonprofit organizations.

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The past year has underscored that challenge. The pandemic has not just affected investment returns – it’s also had serious implications for charitable activities and the ability to fundraise. For some organizations, it’s even raised doubts about whether they can continue to operate.

Finding ways to generate long-term, sustainable returns for ...



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Phil's Favorites

Scorpion Capital Calls a New York Stock Exchange Listed Company a Fraud

Courtesy of Pam Martens

New York Stock Exchange

On April 1 we wrote the following about the sorrowful state of the listing standards at the New York Stock Exchange:

“We rarely make predictions but we’re going to make one with confidence today. The New York Stock Exchange’s efforts to capture more market share of the IPO business by listing highly questionable Chinese companies and blank-check companies (...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Scientists are on a path to sequencing 1 million human genomes and use big data to unlock genetic secrets

 

Scientists are on a path to sequencing 1 million human genomes and use big data to unlock genetic secrets

A complete human genome, seen here in pairs of chromosomes, offers a wealth of information, but it is hard connect genetics to traits or disease. HYanWong/Wikimedia Comons

Courtesy of Xavier Bofill De Ros, National Institutes of Health

The first draft of the human genome was publ...



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Chart School

Money Printing Asset Price Targets

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

The FED giveth and the FED taketh away. Right now the FED is giving a lot into 2022 US Mid Terms. 

Unless the FED breaks the market, here are some BRRRRR asset price targets, not normal price targets but money printing adjusted price targets. 


BITCOIN 175,000 to 500,000 USD

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DOW to 40,000 to 50,000

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More DOW

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Politics

Colombia gives nearly 1 million Venezuelan migrants legal status and right to work

 

Colombia gives nearly 1 million Venezuelan migrants legal status and right to work

Venezuelans wait at the Colombian border to be processed and housed in tents in 2020. All Venezuelans now in Colombia will receive a 10-year residency permit. Schneyder Mendoza/AFP via Getty Images

Courtesy of Erika Frydenlund, Old Dominion University; Jose J. Padilla, Old Dominion University...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Will Historic Selloff In Treasury Bonds Turn Into Opportunity?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Long-dated treasury bonds have been crushed over the past year, sending ETFs like TLT (20+ Year US Treasury Bond ETF) spiraling over 20%.

Improving economy? Inflation concerns? Perhaps a combination of both… interest rates have risen sharply and thus bond prices have fallen in historic fashion.

Today’s chart looks at $TLT over the past 20 years. As you can see, the recent decline has truly been historic. $TLT’s price has swung from historically overbought highs to oversold lows.

At present, the long-dated bond ETF ($TLT) is trading 7.8% below its 200-...



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Digital Currencies

Crypto - The Beginning of The Beginning... and the Coinbase IPO

 

Crypto – The Beginning of The Beginning… and the Coinbase IPO

Courtesy of Howard Lindzon

I am starting to say the ‘beginning of the beginning’ a lot.

Last month I used it in a blog post about active investing.

Bitcoin and Ethereum are a main reason I believe we are at the beginning of the beginning of active investing and the Coinbase ($COIN) direct listing tomorrow [Apr. 14] is likely why we are still just at the beginning of the beginning of crypto and decentralization.

If it was t...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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Promotions

Phil's Stock World's Weekly Webinar - March 10, 2021

Don't miss our latest weekly webinar! 

Join us at PSW for LIVE Webinars every Wednesday afternoon at 1:00 PM EST.

Phil's Stock World's Weekly Webinar – March 10, 2021

 

Major Topics:

00:00:01 - EIA Petroleum Status Report
00:04:42 - Crude Oil WTI
00:12:52 - COVID-19 Update
00:22:08 - Bonds and Borrowed Funds | S&P 500
00:45:28 - COVID-19 Vaccination
00:48:32 - Trading Techniques
00:50:34 - PBR
00:50:43 - LYG
00:50:48 - More Trading Techniques
00:52:59 - Chinese Hacks Microsoft's E...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider





About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.