PhilStockWorld September Portfolio Review (Members Only)
by phil - September 24th, 2018 5:59 am
$1,140,516!
It's been two months since we did our July Portfolio Review as I was on a cruise in August and skipped that review and, in fact, we made very few changes to our portfolios over the summer but that didn't stop them from chugging along to fantastic gains. Most of the changes we made were to get more bullish as, back in June, we cashed out a lot of our winning positions in an attempt to get more defensive into the summer.
As we started the year with $500,000 in the Long-Term Portfolio and $100,000 in the Short-Term Portfolio to protect it with, we're getting very close to an overall double as we're already up $540,516 (90%) but our moves this month have once again led towards taking money off the table and adding more hedges and you may think that's being too defensive in this runaway bull market but it's the same thing we did in July, when we pressed our hedges and cashed in winners as well.
The thing about cashing in winners is, when you do it right, you also improve your losing positions and then, when they turn around, you can really turbo-charge your returns. We benefitted this summer from a rising tide that lifted most ships over the summer – even the ones we had left on the bottom. The S&P, for its part, is up just under 10% since the June dip as we keep waiting for the correction that never comes. Still, that doesn't stop us from adding hedges in the Short-Term Portfolio to lock in these ill-gotten gains in the LTP:
Short-Term Portfolio Review (STP): We added the AMZN shorts, but that's the only change since our 8/27 review, when we were at $225,802 and now we're at $232,125 which is up 132.1% for the year and up $6,323 for the month (6.3%) as our TSLA and AMZN shorts more than offset the losses from our hedges (and we cashed out AAPL too).
Now we have $173,350 in CASH!!! and, as calculated last month, about $200,000 in protection for our LTP – which we only pray is going to…
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Philstockworld September Top Trade Review
by phil - September 13th, 2018 6:24 am
Yes, this is Thursday morning's PSW Report.
We were discussing building portfolios using things like our Top Trade Alerts in yesterday's Live Trading Webinar and it occurred to me that we haven't done a review since July so I think we have some catching up to do – especially as we haven't finished reviewing 2017's trade ideas yet. We're usually about 6-9 months behind because our Top Trade Alerts are usually for long-term opportunities, not short-term set-ups.
So far, through October, we had 40 winning trade ideas and 6 losers for a very nice 86.9% winning percentage and the Sept/Oct trades had made $59,615 by July. As usual, our losing trades tend to turn into winners and one of our losers was Celgene (CELG) but they popped right back from a $425 loss to, currently, a $250 gain but that's only "on track" for our projected $13,000 gain if all goes well so STILL great for a new trade entry – our losers often make the best future winners – that's why these reviews are important!
That brings us up to 41 winners and 5 losers for an 89% winning percentage for 2017 so far and I very much doubt we'll beat that into the year's close – but let's find out together as we review our November and December Top Trade Ideas to finish out the year. Of course, it's a fairly arbitrary snap-shot to see how 2-year trades are doing at any given point in time but I find that 6-12 months is a good time to make adjustments if necessary as you still have more than a year to recover and you have 2-3 quarters of earnings to give us better information to make our decisions on.
That's right, we are FUNDAMENTAL investors so we tend not to pay attention to the day to day BS the market does. Often if a stock we like gets cheaper, we buy MORE because, if you're not going to buy low – when are you going to buy?
Thursday, Nov 2nd was a busy day as we sent out a Top Trade Alert for 3 stocks; TEVA, M & CBI:
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Philstockworld July Portfolio Review (Members Only)
by phil - August 2nd, 2018 12:21 pm
$847,359!
Now we're up $247,359 (41.2%) in our paired Long-Term and Short-Term Portfolios and that's up $29,398 from our last review. We keep trying to cash out but, when push comes to shove, we have so many well-balanced positions that we love in our paired LTP/STP portfolios, we end up keeping almost everythign and, so far so good as the bonus money pours in. As I said last month, as long as the indexes are holding their 50-day moving averages, we're not in immediate danger and this market seems to shake off everything that's thrown at it – so far.
Once again we tried to cash out some winners from the LTP/STP but still so much money to be made and working so well – we don't want to screw it up. So we doubled down on some of our STP hedges (using about 1/3 of the LTP profits) but we are keeping one hand firmly on the exit at all times as there is far too much uncertainty this month (Aug) to risk what anyone would say are already a nice year's gains.
We still have $297,758 in cash and about $1M in margin remainin in our Long-Term Portfolio, so we're very flexible and that portfolio is our MOST invested. I'm still very risk-adverse in this market and yes, we could be making more if we were more aggressive but then again, we could blow it too – and that is what we're trying to avoid.
In fact, people wonder why, in our Hedge Fund, we're "only" up about 10% in the first half but that's because we are making sure we don't LOSE money in our first year – or we'll start with a poor track record and that's death for the fund. So, playing the longer game – we make SURE we make 20%, which makes us one of the best performing funds in America and THEN we get more money and THEN we get a bit more aggressive but, for our first year – it's all about not losing money.
Over the long run – 20-40%
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Philstockworld July Top Trade Review
by phil - July 11th, 2018 6:31 am
Yes, this is Wednesday morning's PSW Report.
I don't have much to say about the markets this morning, other than "I told you so" as they give up the week's gains on more Trade War nonsense that we KNEW was coming (see yesterday's morning Report for my warnings about following that idiocy). We'll see what holds today and we'll make adjustments in chat and in this afternoon's Live Trading Webinar – so no need to talk about what an idiot the President is here, right? What we do need to do is bargain-hunt in case it's another shallow sell-off and we need to add more longs and the best way to do that is to look back on past trade ideas and see if we can find some that haven't gone up yet.
We did our last Top Trade Review in April, so it's a good time to do one of those and, as our Members well know, the vast majority of those trades turn positive so, when they're not, it's usually just a matter of time. As of the April review, we had looked at Top Trades that were initiated through last August and, out of 36 Top Trade Ideas in 35 weeks, we had 29 winners and 7 losers for a very solid 80.55% winning percentatge. In fact, our only loser in July was TEVA, who have since recovered completely and turned into a winner and THAT is why these reviews are so valuable – those "losing trades" often turn into the best opportunities:
Our Top Trades are what we think are our best trade ideas of the week with the highest chances of winning and we send out Alerts to our Members via Text and Email but we don't have a specific portfolio for them as they ofen ended up in one of our 5 various Member Portfolios already.
There's a bit of randomness to the reviews in that we check in on trades after roughly 6 months so they are usually in progress and may be randomly up or down at the moment but that's why these reviews are so great for identifying bargains that simply haven't…
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Philstockworld June Portfolio Review (Members Only)
by phil - June 17th, 2018 11:28 am
$817,961!
Now we're up $217,961 (36%) in our paired Long-Term and Short-Term Portfolios and that's up $44,185 from our last review, when I said I'd rather cash out than continue to risk our, at the time, 28.9% gains. Since we didn't cash out, we pressed our hedges AND since the market kept going up, we added more longs and, so far – it's all working out. As I said last month, as long as the indexes are holding their 50-day moving averages, we're not in immediate danger and this market seems to shake off everything that's thrown at it – so far.
On the whole, we haven't made too many adjustments to any of our portfolios this month as they are on a very good track and fairly well-balanced. Do keep in mind that we are failing (so far) at the lower high of 2,800 on the S&P (/ES), but once we're over that line – we have to seriously consider a whole new leg of the rally may be forming.
We still have $369,258 in cash and about $1M in margin remainin in our Long-Term Portfolio, so we're very flexible and that portfolio is our MOST invested. I'm still very risk-adverse in this market and yes, we could be making more if we were more aggressive but then again, we could blow it too – and that is what we're trying to avoid.
Long-Term Portfolio Review (LTP) Part 1: $643,761 is up an embarrassing $45,252 (9%) since our 5/17 review where I said I'd rather cash out ahead of the summer and come back in the fall. Luckily, you guys didn't let me take a nice vacation and we still have all these positions, which we hedged more heavily in the STP (see earlier review). Overall, we're up 28.8% for the year but that's 2% lower than yesterday – so it's a very volatile number and shouldn't be taken too seriously.
Since we decided to stay in and since we had a lot of hedges, we picked up a bunch of new trades in the past month (always try to balance longs and shorts while selling premium). …
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Philstockworld May Portfolio Review (Members Only)
by phil - May 19th, 2018 12:51 pm
$773,776!
That's up $173,776 (28.9%) in our paired Long-Term and Short-Term Portfolios. 30% is a healthy goal for an entire year (and Berkshire Hathaway averages 16.3% per year) so I really, Really, REALLY would love to cash out at this point and take the summer off. As I have said for the past two weeks, if it wasn't my job to teach people how to trade – including running portfolios during downturns – I would absolutely be cashing out and, to that point, both of my kids' college accounts are in CASH!!! and our Hedge Fund is 90% CASH!!! at the moment so, yes, that is what I would do with my own accounts!
As long as the indexes are holding above their 50-day moving averages, we're not in immediate danger so, with what we're playing, I'm not going to hedge too heavily either – unless we get signs of a deeper breakdown. This market seems to bounce back from everything but so did the market in 2007 – until it finally didn't. It sure would have been nice to be sitting on the sidelines with 128.9% of your money back then, right!
As it stands, our Long-Term Portfolio has 62% of it's cash on the sideline while the STP has 90% on the sideline so we've got plenty to deploy in a downturn. We just finished our reviews and, in the LTP, there was only one adjustment to make so we like all of our positions and are happy to add more to them if they get cheaper and there were no adjustments to make to the STP, so we're happy with our hedges as well…
Also, these are new portfolios, started Jan 2nd this year as we decided to cash in after our November Portfolio Review last year but we did follow through with my plan, which is why we're doing so well after just 4.5 months of trading in the new portfolios:
Really, I am sorry I've been so cautious but I could not, in good conscience, risk those spectacular gains into Q3 earnings and the Holidays. We have a lot of open positions and they'd be difficult
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Philstockworld April Top Trade Review
by phil - April 16th, 2018 8:24 am
Yes, this is Monday morning's Report.
I don't have much to say about the markets, they are back near the highs and we'll see if they hold tomorrow, not today, as it's Monday and Monday's don't matter. What we do need to do is bargain-hunt in case it is a real rally and the best way to do that is to look back on past trade ideas and see if we can find some that haven't gone up yet.
We did our last Top Trade Review in March, so it's a good time to do one of those and, as our Members well know, the vast majority of those trades turn positive so, when they're not, it's usually just a matter of time. As of the March review, we had looked at Top Trades that were initiated through July and, out of 32 trade ideas in 30 weeks, we had 24 winners and 8 losers but 2 of the winners turned around by Sept and that left is with 26 wins and 6 losses for a very solid 81.25% winning percentatge.
Our Top Trades are what we think are our best trade ideas of the week with the highest chances of winning and we send out Alerts to our Members via Text and Email but we don't have a specific portfolio for them as they ofen ended up in one of our 5 various Member Portfolios already.
There's a bit of randomness to the reviews in that we check in on trades after roughly 6 months so they are usually in progress and may be randomly up or down at the moment but that's why these reviews are so great for identifying bargains that simply haven't made a move yet. These are the Top Trade Ideas for August and September:
Tuesday, Aug 1st: Teva (TEVA) – We felt TEVA has bottomed out in early Aug but we were wrong and it did go a lot lower before bouncing back. Our trade idea was:
As a new
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Philstockworld Top Trade Review
by phil - March 12th, 2018 6:43 am
Yes, this is Monday morning's Report.
I don't have much to say about the markets, they are back near the highs and we'll see if they hold tomorrow, not today, as it's Monday and Monday's don't matter. What we do need to do is bargain-hunt in case it is a real rally and the best way to do that is to look back on past trade ideas and see if we can find some that haven't gone up yet.
We haven't done a Top Trade Review since the end of Sept so it's a good time to do one of those and, as our Members well know, the vast majority of those trades turn positive so, when they're not, it's usually just a matter of time. As of the September review, we had looked at Top Trades that were initiated in the first half of the year and, out of 27 trade ideas in 26 weeks, we had 21 winners and 6 losers but 2 of the winners turned around by Sept and that left is with 28 wins and 3 losses for a wonderful 90.3% winning percentatge.
Let's start by taking a look at our two losers and see how they are doing:
Tesla (TSLA) had jumped to $390 in Sept and though it was back to $340 by the 30th, we were worried about the 3 short Oct $300 calls we had sold for $30 were $43.50 so we rolled them ($13,050) to 4 short Jan $340 calls at $31.20 ($12,480) for net $570 less than the $9,000 we collected and THOSE short calls expired at $10.02 ($4,080) so we ended up with a net profit of $4,350 on that "loser" trade.
Chesapeake Energy (CHK) is still a big loser and we still have the adjusted position (30 2020 $4 puts at $1.25 (now $1.56) and 20 short 2020 $2.50/5.50 bull call spreads at $1.25, now 0.85) so we are still down on them and I would now double down on the 2020 $250 calls at $1.35 and wait for a bounce to sell 20 more $5.50s for $1 (now 0.40).
IMax (IMAX) is running out of time to…
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Wednesday Watch List Update – Stocks We Like for 2018
by phil - January 3rd, 2018 8:21 am
It's very important to have a Watch List.
I like to have about 24 stocks I keep a close eye on so that, when something happens and they go on sale, I'm ready, willing and able to pull the trigger in an instant. We did that in November, when Macy's (M) announced their earnings and we thought they were just what we wanted yet the market sold them off after the opening pop. That gave us a window to act and, because we follow M closely – we KNEW it was time to act and I issued a Top Trade Alert, identifying it as our top contender for Stock of the Year for 2018 (replacing LB, another retailer who has already flown higher).
We issued our 2017 Watch List back in March and in May we picked 13 out of 24 for action, including M as well as BMY, ESRX (still cheap), FCX, GE (cheaper), GILD, LB, PSA (still cheap), QCOM, TGT, GCI, FMCC and SEE (still cheap). So, out of 13 picks we had been watching and pulled the trigger on, 10 are winners, 2 are flat and one (GE) is down.
This is the key to understanding our system. GE was our only non-winner out of 13 picks (the flat ones make money too using our "Be the House – NOT the Gambler" system) and is still very manageable but, since they cut the dividend, we're not jumping back in yet – other than short puts.
In order to become a real investor, you have to break out of your "winning" and "losing" mind-set and that's very difficult because your broker – who wants you to TRADE, not INVEST, gives you a daily scorecard with minute-by-minute updates to encourage you to thing of your portfolio as something that should constantly be fiddled with to improve your "score". They even highlight your losers in red – so they bother you and further encourage you to dump slumping stocks by raising the margin requirements on them – making them even harder to hold onto.
Imagine if you ran a baseball team that way – constantly cutting players who were having a bad month and hiring…
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Philstockworld November Portfolio Review
by phil - November 22nd, 2017 5:48 am
$2,121,342!
Not bad for the 4th Anniversary of our Primary Portfolios. We began this lesson on November 26th of 2013 and allocated $500,000 to our Long-Term Portfolio and $100,000 to our Short-Term Portfolio with the intention of demonstrating our balanced, paired portfolio tactics over time. Now, 4 years later, we're up $1,521,342 (253%), which is right at the top of our 40% annual compounded gains we can expect from this strategy when it goes very well.
You can't double up in a year playing a hedged strategy like this because we're constantly betting against ourselves but by "Being the House – NOT the Gambler", we are able to CONSISTENTLY make 20-40% returns and, in this non-stop bull market – it's been more like 40%. Well, a bit under 40% as $600,000 at 40% compounded for 3 years would be $2.3M but that's my fault, not the system's – as we got so close to goal back in October that I put the brakes on and shifted to a more neutral stance and, in our last review, we "only" made $14,565 for the month and, since last month, we've "only" made another $12,867 – it's like it's hardly worth getting up in the morning, right?
Really, I am sorry I've been so cautious but I could not, in good conscience, risk those spectacular gains into Q3 earnings and the Holidays. We have a lot of open positions and they'd be difficult to adjust quickly in a crash so I've been erroring on the side of caution but I promise to drink heavily over the holidays and come back all gung-ho bullish if this rally is still going in January.
This too, is part of the lesson though. Go over the last couple of reviews (archives here) and see how we went from very bullish in August, where we added $133,849 for the month, to lockdown mode in September and my reasons for being cautious were laid out in that review (9/29). The S&P was at 2,519 at the time and, despite the "rally" – it's only just now testing 2,600 – two months later, so I don't regret missing out on a 3.2% rally. If…
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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Ilene is editor and affiliate program
coordinator for PSW. She manages the site