Guide for New Members

Welcome! My name is k1, and I'm a member of PSW just like you. I've taken it upon myself to update the New Members Guide to include a number of information resources you are likely to find yourself needing very soon. The original Guide follows just a few short paragraphs down this page.

Remember - on this site and in our virtual portfolios ALL trades that are discussed are VIRTUAL trades and all virtual portfolios kept are VIRTUAL portfolios.  While we do our best to track the performance of various trade ideas in order to better understand the results over time - it is for educational purposes only, in no way, shape or form should you consider these to be actual results and you should never execute any trade idea that is discussed here without consulting a professional financial adviser.

Many new members join PSW without a solid background in options, which is often discussed during member chat. This is not a problem (that was me when I joined) but it does mean you have some extra homework ahead of you to start to understand the discussion in the daily comments. If you are new to options, you will want to start out with the OptionSage's book, and also dig into two helpful websites:

Sage's book provides a fast, succinct background in option fundamentals and describes in great detail a number of different option trade structures, how they work, and when to use them. Especially if you are new to options, you will find it to be very useful. You can download the PDF to your machine and keep it handy at all times.  For additonal options education, we strongly recommend Sage's web site "MarketTamer," where they have low-cost training courses and 3 free lessons for our members (use the link).

Investopedia is a great all-purpose encyclopedia for many of the arcane trading terms you will encounter here. iVolatility is a specialized site providing HV and IV for stocks and options. It requires you to sign up for a free membership, but is worth it. There are other sites that also provide good tools, but the three recommendations above are important for getting started.

Your second assignment is to recognize that Phil's core trading strategy is unlike strategies you might have seen in other places, and will require some study even if you are a seasoned options trader. In daily conversations, the experienced traders on the site talk about investing significant time each day and weekend to reading, studying, and preparing. It is not unusual for traders to put in an extra 20 or more hours a week. What this means for new members is that you need to plan on and allocate some time and energy to studying up on what Phil does, how and why he does it, and who the other members of the PSW community are and what they have to share.

The standard assignments:

  • Read 1 full month of posts, both Phil's twice-daily articles as well as all of the comments
  • Read Option Sage's articles under his tab, many were co-authored by Phil and highlight various option stratgies with real-world examples.
  • Watch The Man Who Planted Trees, a short video about that Phil often refers to to characterize a proper investing mindset.  Warning:  The more impatient you are watching it, the more you need to watch it! 

Reading a full month of posts is important for a couple of reasons. Not only will it introduce you to who the rest of us are, but it will introduce you to the questions other new members are asking, and give you a chance to see the different kinds of market action that happen over a month.

It is extremely important that your month of comments include an options expiration day (opX). And if you don't know what opX day is, you can ask Investopedia.

This may seem really tedious, because after all, you didn't join this website to be given homework! But there are two key factors at work here. First of all, Phil teaches that trading is a job, and a profession. As such, it has its own jargon, its own nuance, and its own complexity. The only way to become familiar with the profession is to advance through the stages of mastery. So for your own success, study is key.

The second point is even more significant, because it defines why all of us are here. Phil's goal is to teach the members to trade, and build up a community of sharp traders capable of taking on the markets. In Phil's vision, we become a high performance team, working together to spot trends, identify opportunities, and avoid, hedge, or avert failures.

Phil: There’s a lot of hard work involved in trading normal markets and that’s what I want us to have - a world class team of traders who work like a family because we can learn to trust each other and play off each other’s strengths.

In addition to these homework assignments, there are some smaller details that help keep order in the comments action, serving as "ground rules" for the daily action.

  • During market hours, please restrict comments and questions to market-specific topics. These include trade-specific clarifications and suggestions, broker issues, virtual portfolio-impacting or market-driven events. Phil also tends to discourage multiple-part essay questions, especially when things are hopping.
  • After market hours there is much more room for broader questions, revisiting complex trade setups or strategies, and political discussions. And though this should probably go without saying, even in heated political discussions, there is no place for attacks on other members or their views.
  • Often you will want to share something you found on the web with other PSW members. The comment box at the bottom of the page has a special Add Hyperlink function for doing this. Please link us all to items you find rather than copy/paste dumping them into the daily comment flow.

Finally, even though you're excited to have joined and chomping at the bit to get trading, we would recommend that you consider spending a little time getting oriented to the action during the day, and not jump right in and put actual money into a position or trade. Especially if you are learning, you could end up quite confused if you tried to follow every trade. A demo account with a broker is a great way to get acquainted with Phil's strategy, the PSW community, the flow of the market, and your broker's platform capabilities for placing trades, rolling options, and managing your virtual portfolio.

One last thing to consider is posting a small bio about yourself on our Introductions page. It's not required, but a chance to tell us a little about yourself.

That's all from me for now, you'll be getting your fill in the k1 project. Now back to your regularly-scheduled introduction to PSW. - k1


Thanks for joining. To make the most of your subscription, you should know the following things:

  1. There is a virtual portfolios Tab.  Phil does not keep a running virtual portfolio. Optrader does under his tab for short-term trades.  Phil generally keeps a buy list where one trade per month is made on each of the key stocks we are following.  During intra-day chat and through alerts (free to Premium Members) over 100 additional trade ideas are put up for members each month by both Phil and Optrader as well as some of our key members.
  2. Every morning Phil writes an article including market analysis and trades for the day (if any), and he posts it here before the market opens. The morning post includes picks and commentary that aren't provided on our free blog, and posts at the members-only site appear several hours before they're available on our free blog or at Seeking Alpha. Read the post through carefully (especially the latter half where the picks are) to know what the trades are. Phil usually posts picks in this format: Ticker - Expiration - Strike Price - Entry Price. For example: XYZ May 30s for $1.10 or better. Note: unless a pick indicates to buy puts, then by default it is recommending calls.
  3. Trades and adjustments are always made first in the comment thread to the most current post.  The Intraday tab is only updated at our convenience, often after the market close or later, and is for recording purposes.  At the end of each post, you'll see a link to the comment thread for that post (just click where it says "Comments"). In the comment thread to each day's morning post, Phil often posts trade ideas and analysis of that day's market action. Our active members also post their own analysis and trade ideas, and questions or comments from new members are always welcome. You can follow along throughout the day by scrolling to the end of the comment thread. New comments should appear automatically without needing to refresh.
  4. If you're not big on things like community and camaraderie, and just want the tradable intraday goodness, you can sign up for Alerts from Phil, Optrader or the Oxen Group to see the trade ideas and virtual portfolio moves they decide to send out during market hours that day.  For the most recent and complete real-time trade ideas and watch levels, always consult the comment sections - do not just rely on Phil's Alerts as they are only a small selection of his daily trade ideas.
  5. Be sure to read through our Strategy section at your leisure to get a sense for how best to trade Phil's picks.
  6. Also, don't miss our Education section, which features a spectacular ebook, Secrets to Explosive Stock Market Profits, that is sure to help you hone your investing/trading skills.
  7. Our Virtual Portfolio section has our famous "Buy List," where we track longer-term trades and major articles on trade ideas can be found there as well as in the "Education" Section.
  8. Peter D has put together a link guide for following his "short strangle strategy" - more advanced but well worth considering!
  9. JRW is our resident day trader and specialized in trading the Russell (IWM, TNA, TZA) utilizing his patented Pivot Point Strategy.  
  10. Finally, you may login from our free site in the form titled 'Members Login,' or by going directly to http://www.philstockworld.com/members/. To make changes to your account information, update your email address or password, or to view or edit your subscription status, just go to http://www.philstockworld.com/amember/member.php.

Again, welcome, and if you have any questions don't hesitate to ask.

 
 
 

Phil's Favorites

Being on the wrong side of this decade's investing mega-trend

 

Being on the wrong side of this decade’s investing mega-trend

Courtesy of 

Josh Brown and Michael Batnick discuss the recent post “I did everything I was supposed to do”, which is the story of a man whose spent his whole career working for asset management firms and now finds himself on the wrong side of the active vs passive debate. There are real world consequences of the massive outflows of cash coming from actively managed mutual funds. This was Josh’s attempt to look at the issue from the other side.

The post spread around the financial web like wildfir...



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Zero Hedge

BMO: Everything Will Change After Tomorrow's "Quad Witching"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

Don't look to the Fed to explain today's torrid, global rally: according to a controversial take by BMO's bearish technical analyst, Russ Visch, yesterday’s FOMC announcement was a non-event "as markets shrugged off the interest rate decision and follow-up presser with Chairman Powell", and today's action has an entirely different catalyst, resulting in "no change" to Visch's short-term outlook.

And in another contrarian take, Visch claims that "the quality of the rally since late May (narrow participation, extremely light volume) suggest it’s nothing more than a relief rally within an ongoing medium-term downtrend" as shown in the chart below.

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Silver; Multi-Year Bull Market Getting Started?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Is a multi-year bull market about to start in Silver? We should find out soon!

This chart looks at Silver since the early 1970s. It has spent the majority of the past 35-years inside of rising channel (1).

It created a series of flat bottoms and lower highs in the late 1990s. When it broke out at (2), it rallied for years to come, where it gained several hundred percent.

Silver hit the top of this channel back in 2011 at $50, where a long-term bear market started. The 65% decline over the past 8-years has it testing the bottom of this mul...



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Insider Scoop

Baird Applauds Tapestry's New CFO Pick

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Tapestry Inc (NYSE: TPR) announced its new chief financial officer hire Wednesday.

The Analyst 

Baird analyst Mark Altschwager reiterated an Outperform rating on Tapes...



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Biotech

Consumer genetic testing customers stretch their DNA data further with third-party interpretation websites

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Consumer genetic testing customers stretch their DNA data further with third-party interpretation websites

If you’ve got the raw data, why not mine it for more info? Sergey Nivens/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Sarah Catherine Nelson, University of Washington

Back in 2016, Helen (a pseudonym) took three different direct-to-consumer (DTC) genetic tests: AncestryDNA, 23andMe and FamilyTreeDNA. She saw genetic testing as a way...



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Chart School

Silver Review

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

The folks in the federal reserve will debase the US dollar currency to an extreme degree silver will finally lift off the floor.. 

Note: Readers should re watch the silver back screen news video, here.

The following video looks at price action and Wyckoff logic.

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Chart in video

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.




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Digital Currencies

Cryptos Are Crashing As Asia Opens, Bitcoin Back Below $8k

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Having survived the day's bloodbath in US tech stocks, cryptos are crashing in the early Asian session, apparently playing catch-down to the day's de-risking.

While no catalyst is immediately evident, there are some reports noting 13 large global banks are preparing to launch digital versions of major global currencies next year, though we suspect this drop was more algorithmic that fundamental-driven.

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ValueWalk

More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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