My OPEC Strategy

I was rereading Steve Levitt’s blog entitled Peak Oil:” Welcome to the media’s new version of shark attacks” in preparation for the OPEC meeting (I’ll be the one wearing a Kaffiyeh) and I started doing a little math of my own. In previous columns we’ve discussed the oversupply issues, the underlying reasons for oil’s rapid price increase and supply and demand issues - so here we will concentrate on price control options. Using very round numbers so as not to annoy people I think it boils down to this: The world uses 85M barrels of oil a day. OPEC produces 30M barrels, Non-OPEC 55M At $60 a barrel, OPEC makes $1.8Bn a day. A 10% production cut (assuming it does hold the price) costs them $180M a day. A $5 dollar a barrel drop in prices cost them $150M a day. They have to be reasonably certain then, that the benefit of cutting 10% of their production is greater than $5 a day or it’s a double loss. Already it is 20% more profitable to let oil drop $5 in price than to cut production. Now, what if someone cheats within your group? They will put pressure on prices and take it directly out of your share. How much does Saudi Arabia trust Iran? Nigeria? Chavez? Even if they all get along and sing Koom-Bi-Ya and cut production by 10% then what about their competitors? OPEC only supplies 40% of the world’s oil, the rest is supplied by FOREIGNERS! You know we can’t trust them…. It’s just not fair for OPEC to take a $180M per day hit in order to support prices so that their competitors can just swoop in and start supplying their customers. And speaking of customers, those ingrates aren’t keeping up their end of the bargain! Not only are SUV sales off 40% in the US but the airlines have spent billions switching to lighter, more fuel efficient jets that can save over a billion barrels of jet fuel a year. On the whole, demand is off 3.5% since oil first broke $50 in October of 2004. The US expects to produce 10Bn barrels of ethanol a year by 2010, that’s $600Bn less demand! Not only does 3.5% less demand cost OPEC $65M a day but if part of that $100M/day finds it’s ways into the hands of energy competitors (wind, solar, geothermal, coal, nuclear…) it could spur those industries on to grow and do better. If we were to assume that this 3.5% drop in demand persists every 2 years that oil is over $50, then the first thing OPEC needs to do is get oil under $50 asap to stop the bleeding. Once you lose a customer, it is very hard to get them back! So OPEC needs to come out of this meeting with a statement that they will cut back production quotas but not actual production and let us know they consider $50 to be a fair price for oil. Rather than playing the villain, they could accept the inevitable and calm their customers, letting them know its OK to buy that SUV for the holidays. Instead we can expect the usual greed and chaos to dominate the meeting which will leave the market on an uneven keel that will ultimately lead to OPEC, like Lucy and Ethyl, choking on thier own production.
 
 
 

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The PhilStockWorld com LIVE Weekly Webinar - 07-17-19

For LIVE access on Wednesday afternoons, join us at Phil's Stock World – click here.

Major Topics:

00:02:11 Indexes Charts
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Zero Hedge

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(Published at ZeroHedge)

US recessions are like epidemics: they all begin somewhere, and the “tell” is state-level unemployment data. For example, the end of the 2000 dot com bubble hit Connecticut and Massachusetts first – two hubs for the financials services industry with lots of affluent investors to boot. The end of the 2000s housing boom predictably impacted Florida and Nevada before the rest of the country. This time around, the data shows the manufacturing-heavy states of Michigan, Ohio and Indiana are most at risk. No wonder “Dr. Fed” wants to inoculate the region with lower interest rates.

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Digital Currencies

Cryptos Suddenly Panic-Bid, Bitcoin Back Above $10k

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Following further selling pressure overnight, someone (or more than one) has decided to buy-the-dip in cryptos this morning, sending Bitcoin (and most of the altcoins) soaring...

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Source: Coin360

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Silver ETF (SLV) Testing Dual Breakout Resistance

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Silver (NYSEARCA: SLV) has been in a bit of a slumber when compared to the price action for Gold (NYSEARCA: GLD).

Precious metals bulls hope that this about to change, as bullish action from Silver is necessary to confirm any bull market / move in metals.

Today’s chart takes a closer look at the Silver ETF (SLV) on a weekly basis. As you can see, Silver is up 5 percent this week alone.

This is good news for metals bulls. But this rally isn’t confirming a breakout just yet.

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Insider Scoop

Analysts Weigh In On Netflix's Rocky Quarter

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) reported second-quarter results highlighted by an uncharacteristic decline in U.S. subscribers while international subscriber adds missed expectations. Here is a summary of how some of the Street's top analysts reacted to the print.

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Biotech

DNA testing companies offer telomere testing - but what does it tell you about aging and disease risk?

Reminder: We're is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA testing companies offer telomere testing – but what does it tell you about aging and disease risk?

A telomere age test kit from Telomere Diagnostics Inc. and saliva. collection kit from 23andMe. Anna Hoychuk/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Patricia Opresko, University of Pittsburgh and Elise Fouquerel, ...



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ValueWalk

Professor Shubha Ghosh On The Current State Of Gene Editing

 

Professor Shubha Ghosh On The Current State Of Gene Editing

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ValueWalk’s Q&A session with Professor Shubha Ghosh, a professor of law and the director of the Syracuse Intellectual Property Law Institute. In this interview, Professor Ghosh discusses his background, the Human Genome Project, the current state of gene editing, 3D printing for organ operations, and gene editing regulation.

...

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Chart School

Gold Gann Angle Update

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Charts show us the golden brick road to high prices.

GLD Gann Angle has been working since 2016. Higher prices are expected. Who would say anything different, and why and how?

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.



The GLD very wide channel shows us the way.
- Conservative: Tag the 10 year rally starting in 2001 to 2019 and it forecasts $750 GLD (or $7500 USD Gold Futures) in 10 years.
- Aggressive: Tag the 5 year rally starting in 1976 to 2019  and it forecasts $750 GLD (or $7500 USD Gold Futures) in 5 years.

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if ima...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

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It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

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Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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