Steen Jakobsen on CNBC Squawk Box on the lack of European reforms

Steen Jakobsen on CNBC Squawk Box on the lack of European reforms, the French economy, elections, intervention in the bond markets, and gold

Courtesy of Mish

Saxo Bank chief economist Steen Jakobsen was on CNBC Squawk Boxon the lack of European reforms, the French economy, elections, and intervention in the bond markets, commodities in general, and gold and copper specifically.



Select Quotes From Above Video

  • Both French candidates [Hollande and Sarkozy] are pretty poor for Europe and more importantly for France.
  • The fact remains we have only seen 15% of the reforms promised in the UK, Spain has just started on the road to reform, and Greece is still struggling to get reforms. We are not getting any reforms in Europe in my opinion.
  • What the bond market has become today is an interventionist market controlled by the ECB and their ability to go into program and buy.
  • The problem remains at all times that access to credit is not there. Governments continue to take a bigger and bigger slice of the credit cake.
  • I am very optimistic that when we come out of this very, very harsh recession in the next two to four quarters we will have seen the low politically and economically, hence we will have 10 years of excellent returns in equities.
  • Right now I am starting to go increasingly short. May 2 was the peak last year and I think we have exactly a repeat of 2011 and 2010.
  • I like gold a hedge against the naive printing of money [by central bankers] that continues to be the case. I am surprised that agriculture has done so poorly in the first quarter.
  • Commodities are a short-term trade as long as we have extend-and-pretend as a policy. Think about it. What would you rather own long-term? Some liability on the government of Greece, Spain, even Germany, or buy a mining industry that is producing every single day?
Unwarranted Optimism?

I am in general agreement with most of Steen's views. However, unlike Steen, I am not bullish on copper or base metals in general.

My reasons are as described in 12 Predictions by Michael Pettis on China; Non-Food Commodity Prices Will Collapse Over Next Three to Four Years; Nails in the Hard Landing Coffin?

Whether or not Europe comes out of this recession with a bang or a whimper is entirely dependent on whether or not there are any structural reforms in the next two years or not, and whether or not the eurozone even survives.

The good scenario in my opinion is a breakup of the Eurozone. The quicker that happens the quicker Europe bottoms and the sharper the rebound (but only if accompanied by sufficient reforms). If the   public sector remains above 50% of the French GDP (currently about 56%), don't look for a recovery in France.

Color me skeptical about a huge recovery in Europe with socialists in control, no real reforms implemented, and most importantly, aging demographics that will place still more burdens on European taxpayers unless there is dramatic pension reform.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Audi Will Be All Electric By 2026

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

The death march for internal combustion engine vehicles continues...

Audi has been the latest automaker to express its intent to completely end building combustion engine vehicles, stating this week that they would stop building gas and diesel vehicles by 2026. There will also be no more hybrid vehicles from that point forward, the automaker said. 

Audi board chairman Markus Duesmann offered the deadline to company executives and labor representatives this week, according to The Drive. T...



more from Tyler

Phil's Favorites

A Reluctant Optimist

 

A Reluctant Optimist

Courtesy of Scott Galloway, No Mercy/No Malice@profgalloway

Optimists are overrated. With Big Tech, Covid-19, or Putin, would we have been better off listening to the optimists or the pessimists? People think it takes optimism to be an entrepreneur. Not so — in my case, it just required the self-awareness to know I didn’t have the skills to succeed in a big company. Optimism is required to be an early stage investor, however. I typically invest in later stage growth firms, as my reaction to every startup idea is “there’s NFW that will work.”

I believe pessimists make better operators. I, no joke, sit awake at night and imagine everything that ca...



more from Ilene

Biotech/COVID-19

Counterfeiting - the underworld threat to beating COVID-19

 

Counterfeiting – the underworld threat to beating COVID-19

Counterfeit vaccines, testing kits, and vaccine passports are undermining the global fight against COVID-19. AnaLysiSStudiO/Shutterstock

Courtesy of Mark Stevenson, Lancaster University

While the word “counterfeit” may conjure up images of fake cash and knock-off handbags, the pharmaceutical industry – and with it, the fight against COVID-19 – has been significantly affected by illicit goods.

In a major operation, Interpol recently ...



more from Biotech/COVID-19

Chart School

RTT Plus Bulletin

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

RTT Plus private blog answer these questions over the last two weeks.

Ending: 2021-06-19

- Metal stocks very bullish after gold smash
- FED taper talk vs Basel 3
- Dollar devaluatioin before end of 2021
- COVID, Vaccine insight (off topic)
- The next play for the deep sate (off topic)
- The debt loaded USA can not break these economic stats


RTT Plus membership required to review.

RTT Plus members can include chart building services if you wish. If you you do not want chart building services select 'RTT Plus' only during the membership sign up process.

Sign up now!






...

more from Chart School

Politics

The Ukraine Fallacies (with Victor Rud)

 

The Ukraine Fallacies (with Victor Rud)

Americans are confused about the history of Ukraine. That's just how Russia wants it.

Courtesy of Greg Olear, at PREVAIL

Greg is the author of Dirty Rubles: An Introduction to Trump/Russia 

...

more from Politics

Promotions

Live Webinar with Phil on Option Strategies

 

June is TD Bank's Option Education Month, and today (Thursday, June 10) at 1 pm EST, Phil will speak with host Bryan Rogers about selling options and various option strategies that we use here at Phil's Stock World. Don't miss this event!

Click here to register for TD's live webinar with Phil.

 

...

more from Promotions

Digital Currencies

Crypto: Congress Dawdles as $1.7 Trillion Con-Game Goes Unregulated, Threatening Reputation of U.S. Markets

Courtesy of Pam Martens

If you want to get your hair cut outside of your home in the United States, the job has to be done by a licensed worker at a regulated business. The same thing applies to plumbers, electricians, home inspectors, real estate and insurance agents. They all require a license and are subject to regulatory scrutiny.

Likewise, commodities like corn, sugar, wheat, lumber and oil are all traded on regulated exchanges which are overseen by a federal regulator.

But, for reasons that have yet to be explained to the American people, when it comes to the $1.7 trillion cryptocurrency market – which is effectively a con-g...



more from Bitcoin

Kimble Charting Solutions

Crude Oil Cleared For Blast Off On This Dual Breakout?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is Crude Oil about to blast off and hit much higher prices? It might be worth being aware of what could be taking place this month in this important commodity!

Crude Oil has created lower highs over the past 13-years, since peaking back in 2008, along line (1).

It created a “Double Top at (2), then it proceeded to decline more than 60% in four months.

The countertrend rally in Crude Oil has it attempting to break above its 13-year falling resistance as well as its double top at (3).

A successful breakout at (3) would suggest Crude Oil is about to mo...



more from Kimble C.S.

ValueWalk

Managing Investments As A Charity Or Nonprofit

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Maintaining financial viability is a constant challenge for charities and nonprofit organizations.

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The past year has underscored that challenge. The pandemic has not just affected investment returns – it’s also had serious implications for charitable activities and the ability to fundraise. For some organizations, it’s even raised doubts about whether they can continue to operate.

Finding ways to generate long-term, sustainable returns for ...



more from ValueWalk

Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



more from M.T.M.

The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



more from Tech. Traders

Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



more from Lee

Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider





About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.