Posts Tagged ‘$5000 Portfolio’

Working Class Thursday – Show Us the Jobs!

UnemploymentJobs, jobs, jobs!

That's what it's all about, or not about today.  Last week we got much better than expected numbers as Job losses fell from 640,000 to 565,000 but how much of that was due to the July 4th holiday weekend we will see this morning.  Analysts have quickly lowered their expectations to match last week's figure (as they don't have a clue of their own) and now we are expected to lose "only" 550,000 jobs this morning – still a 6.6M annual pace so keep that in mind should the markets decide to "celebrate" that number.  Looking at the chart, you'll see that July of '08 had a sharp downturn in Job losses as well, down from 400,000 to 350,000 with July 4th celebrated on a Friday last year too.  Those reports arrested a slide in the Dow from 13,000 in May to 11,000 in mid-July and the market ran back to 11,800 on Aug 11th and we held around 11,500 until things fell apart in September and we fell all the way to 8,000.  I know – history is just soooooo boring, what could possibly be learned from it?

Yesterday was an amazing day as we ran right up to the target levels I predicted on Monday, which I reiterated in yesterday's morning post, saying:  "Our upper targets to break the dreaded head and shoulders pattern are:  Dow 8,500, S&P 930, Nasdaq 1,825, NYSE 6,000 and Russell 510."  We had what we call a "Free Money Day" as the markets went up and up and up some more with the Dow topping out way up at 8,620, a 6.4% move off the bottom, which is just about a 20% retrace of the 33% drop so, of course, we shorted it!  The S&P made it right to 932 and finished there, up 7.1% since Friday.  The Nasdaq made it all the way to 1,860 after gapping just over our target at the open, up 6.9% for the week.  The NYSE hit 6,000 on the nose and finished just under it – up 7.1% while the Russell over-achieved to 515, up 8.4% in 3 days. 

As I mentioned yesterday, just because we made our targets, we are not automatically expecting a "breakout."  We are not happy with the WAY in which we got here…
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$5,000 Virtual Portfolio Update – Day 6 – $5,629!

We had a pretty good week with our new virtual portfolio.

The goal of the $5,000 virtual portfolio is to play around the volatility of earnings and make no mistake, it's a high-risk way to trade $5,000 and is meant to be a small portion of a large virtual portfolio – not something you would want to do with your only $5,000.  Of course the usual disclaimer is, this is a virtual portfolio, don't try this at home, trading is dangerous, always consult a professional financial adviser, etc, etc.  The idea is to practice different option strategies and we had a very exciting first week! 

Our first play was a spread on AA into earnings, initiated Monday at 1:10 with a buy of 3 $7.50 calls for $1.75 ($525), which we later covered with 3 $9 calls at $1.04 ($312).  That put us in the $1.50 spread for net .71 and we needed AA to finish next week at $9 to collect our full profit.  We bought back the $9 calls on Tuesday, ahead of earnings as they fell to .70 (up 33%), which lowered the basis on the remaining $7.50 calls to $1.42 and we got out of that one the next day as they spiked up to $2.50 in the morning after earnings.  Net profit $324. 

The second trade we entered was a DIA call play, the $84s, which we entered Tuesday at 10:30 at .70 (5 contracts) and subsequently doubled down at .50 (average basis .60) and again at .42 (average basis .51), sold 10, leaving us with 10 contracts at .51 and got out at .60 on Wednesday's "stick save" close.  Net profit $90. 

The third play of the week was SGR and we initiated that one Thursday at 11:12 with a straight spread of 4 $22.50 calls for $3.30, selling the $25 calls for $1.45 for a net entry of $1.85 on the $2.50 spread.  Earnings were a miss on SGR but we felt that the sell-off was an overreaction so we took out the $25 calls for .25 (82% profit), leaving us in the $22.50s for net $2.10 ($3.30 entry less the $1.10 profit on the $25 calls).  We hit our goal of $2.50 yesterday (7/14) and stopped out with a .40 gain although some hung on as the $22.50s flew all the way to
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Zero Hedge

Hedge Funds Have Never Been More Concentrated Into The Same Handful Of Stocks

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.


Sun, 05/24/2020 - 15:25

Six years ago, back in 2013, we presented what we then viewed (and still view) as the best trading strategy of the New Abnormal period, when we said that buying the most shorted names while shorting the names that have the highest hedge fund concentration and institutional ownership is the surest way to generate alpha, to wit:

... in a world in which nothing ...



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Phil's Favorites

A doctor shares 7 steps he'll review to decide when and where it's safe to go out and about

 

A doctor shares 7 steps he'll review to decide when and where it's safe to go out and about

The Inn at Little Washington in Washington, Virginia, shown May 20, 2020, plans to use mannequins in its dining room to enforce social distancing when it reopens at the end of the month. Olivier Douliery/AFP via Getty Images

Courtesy of William Petri, University of Virginia

As we return to some degree of normalcy after weeks of social distancing, we all need a plan. As an immunologist, I’ve given this a lot of ...



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Biotech/COVID-19

A doctor shares 7 steps he'll review to decide when and where it's safe to go out and about

 

A doctor shares 7 steps he'll review to decide when and where it's safe to go out and about

The Inn at Little Washington in Washington, Virginia, shown May 20, 2020, plans to use mannequins in its dining room to enforce social distancing when it reopens at the end of the month. Olivier Douliery/AFP via Getty Images

Courtesy of William Petri, University of Virginia

As we return to some degree of normalcy after weeks of social distancing, we all need a plan. As an immunologist, I’ve given this a lot of ...



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Chart School

Is this your local response to COVID 19

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

This is off topic, but a bit of fun!


This is the standard reaction from the control freaks.








This is the song for post lock down!







What should be made mandatory? Vaccines, hell NO! This should be mandatory: Every one taking their tops off in the sun, they do in Africa!

Guess which family gets more Vitamin D and eats less sugary carbs, TV Show



...



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ValueWalk

Hazelton Capital Partners 1Q20 Commentary: Long Renewable Energy Group

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Hazelton Capital Partners commentary for the first quarter ended April 30, 2020, discussing their current portfolio holdings Renewable Energy Group, Apple and Berkshire Hathaway.

Q1 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Dear Partner,

Hazelton Capital Partners, LLC (the “Fund”) returned -23.8% from January 1, 2020 through March 31, 2020. By comparison, the S&P 500 returned -19.4% during the same quarter.

Before reviewing the 1st quarter of 2020 and Hazelton Capital Partners’ portfolio, my sincere hope is that everyone, their family, friends, a...



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The Technical Traders

Gold Stocks Are Overbought. You Don't Want Prices to Go Straight Up

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Bill Powers of MiningStockEducation.com talks with a professional trader and market commentator Chris Vermeulen says gold stocks are overbought and need a breather which would be good for the overall upward trend.

Chris shares how he has and is trading the junior gold sector. He called the recent February 24th top in the gold stocks before the March crash. And now he is warning to a top in some gold-stock positions during an expected pullback.

Chris also addresses whether a lot of the gap-up’s in many gold...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Doc Copper Counter-Trend Rally Could Peak Here, Says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Could ole Doc Copper be sending an important message about the overall health of the global economy and the stock market in the next couple of weeks? It appears it could!

This chart looks at Copper futures on a weekly basis over the past 7-years. Doc Copper looks to have double topped in late 2017 and early 2018. After the double top, Copper has continued to create a series of lower highs, which sends a bearish divergence message to stocks.

Numerous highs and lows have taken place along the line (1) over the past 5-years. The rally off the March lows ...



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Digital Currencies

Blockchains can trace foods from farm to plate, but the industry is still behind the curve

 

Blockchains can trace foods from farm to plate, but the industry is still behind the curve

App-etising? LDprod

Courtesy of Michael Rogerson, University of Bath and Glenn Parry, University of Surrey

Food supply chains were vulnerable long before the coronavirus pandemic. Recent scandals have ranged from modern slavery ...



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Members' Corner

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

 

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

No matter the details of the plot, conspiracy theories follow common patterns of thought. Ranta Images/iStock/Getty Images Plus

Courtesy of John Cook, George Mason University; Sander van der Linden, University of Cambridge; Stephan Lewandowsky...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

...

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Lee's Free Thinking

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

 

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

Courtesy of  

The repo market problem isn’t the problem. It’s a sideshow, a diversion, and a joke. It’s a symptom of the problem.

Today, I got a note from Liquidity Trader subscriber David, a professional investor, and it got me to thinking. Here’s what David wrote:

Lee,

The ‘experts’ I hear from keep saying that once 300B more in reserves have ...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.