Posts Tagged ‘all about trends’

Mid-Week Market Update

Mid-Week Market Update

Courtesy of David at All About Trends

The best way to sum up this week’s action is "It’s A Market Of Stocks ". We’ve seen some really nice moves in many of our featured names with some nice paydays as well.

THE MARKET IN REVIEW

As you can see we are also overbought stochastically speaking as well. This is another reason we decided today to pullback on the throttles if you will.

Zooming into the 60 minute Time frequency allows for a more magnified view. The pink line on the chart above is the same pink line on the chart below. It’s a inflection point to say the least.

 

A break of the pink line could take us to the lower blue line ultimately, but the first stop would be that pink line and then net nowhere for 2+ months again. Here too even in a shorter term time frequency we’ve got that overbought level flashing stochastically speaking.

Moving on to the OTC composite

 

In Summary:

In a recent report we said:

With the dailies showing overbought and an up up and away move we want to watch for an initial pullback in the indexes to short term new support levels. For the SPX and OTC that would be right back to their initial breakout levels as shown above. Those pullbacks ought to relieve the overbought nature of the daily charts, then we look for another move higher baring an unforeseen news driven event. It’s in that potential move higher that our current watch list ought to shine.

If we are going to top it will most likely be after we pullback then make another run attempt.

Those comments still stand.
We will add one thing though and that is the chart below.

 

This chart covers the OTC composite off the 2002 lows and was our most recent cyclical bull market. What we want you to notice is in almost every single year this index has run into the end of the year and then went into a correction shortly thereafter. Folks we are in that window. It can happen at any time. Personally big picture you might want to stop thinking about the next 20-30% up move and start to think more about how am I going to protect what I’ve recently recouped off the March…
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Time To Short The Indexes?

Time To Short The Indexes?

Courtesy of David Grandey

All About Trends

We wanted to take a few minutes tonight to fill you in on a little index action that we are seeing develop.

First let’s take a look at the short-term index charts.

With each of the charts, you can clearly see they all have that same look:

1. All are pushing resistance aside from post-Fed knee jerk reaction.

2. All have that abc down of A (Oct. Lows)

3. All have that ABC up (thru today) of a Potential B

4. All have a PINK Pullback Off Lows line which is the opposite of a bullish Pullback Off Highs pattern.

A POH is a Pullback Off Highs LONG Side set up and a POL is a Pullback Off Lows SHORT Side set up.

Don’t get Elliott Wave? ABC’s? No matter, all you need to know is support-resistance and those Pink Lines. At this moment in time any break of the pink line sets up a short sell in the indexes with a break into new highs being a stop. For us? We will continue to focus upon the issues that have broken uptrends and are backtesting those trendline breaks.

NOTE: Do yourself a favor and get used to what Pullback Off Low patterns are because when this bear market rally truly ends it will be the only game in town. You can find out more about this pattern here.

One additional note about the above charts. As you can see from today’s peak you have the makings of a nano pullback off highs pattern. This means they could gap up up tommorrow to test the highs of today or a retest of the post-Fed emotional highs. If it happens then don’t be suprised. It would also be a double top at that point too which is the first sign of a change in trend from up to down.

In Summary: Those pink lines are all you need to know. A solid break sets up a potential C wave down to the Oct lows if not farther. BUT we’ll take it one step at a time.

While on the subject of double tops, we don’t care what anyone says. A double top is a double top.…
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All About Trends’ Market Review

MARKET IN REVIEW

BUYING STOCKS AT SAFE, ALTERNATIVE ENTRY POINTS

Courtesy of David Grandey at All About Trends

The big questions on a lot of folks minds are: "Was That It? and Did We Just Top?"  In order to answer those questions let’s look at what the daily index charts off the March 2009 lows have to say about that.

The Nasdaq, Dow and S&P indexes have uptrends that are still intact. The green lines, the blue line and the 50 day moving average are your guides. As of this moment, we see NO TOP on the market.

HOWEVER, IF we see a quick run sometime next week to a retest of the highs and then a pullback off of that retest, those developments will create a double top and we’ll be more apt to call a short term top at that time.

Why does the presence of a Double Top cause us to be more likely to change our position on the market? Because the Double Top is one of the most common early warning alert patterns warning of a change in trend.

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HOW TO BUY STOCKS AT SAFE, ALTERNATIVE ENTRY POINTS

So now that the indexes are pulling back, but remain in a clearly defined uptrend above their uptrend lines and 50-day moving averages, we want to focus on stocks that are in the same position and have simply pulled back off of their highs to those support levels. This is called trading in tandem with the market.

Now there are two ways to buy stocks. The first way is to find a stock that has formed a base and buy it when it breaks into new highs above the base. This is called buying a traditional breakout. Here’s a look at some recent breakouts:

 


As you can see with each of these, after breaking out, they quickly turned tail to retest what was resistance (now should be support), and each of them actually closed under support or back in the base. If you had bought them with a stop loss, chances are after a few feel-good days, you were stopped out.

Now let’s look at the second way:

As you can see here, this issue broke out. But most breakouts…
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Phil's Favorites

Partisan divide creates different Americas, separate lives

 

Partisan divide creates different Americas, separate lives

Even in the physical world, it’s hard to cross partisan lines. igorstevanovic/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Robert B. Talisse, Vanderbilt University

When people try to explain why the United States is so politically polarized now, they frequently refer to the concept of &ldq...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

India About To Experience Major Strength? Possible Says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

If one invested in the India ETF (INDA) back in January of 2012, your total 7-year return would be 24%. During the same time frame, the S&P 500 made 124%. The 7-year spread between the two is a large 100%!

Are things about to improve for the INDA ETF and could it be time for the relative weakness to change? Possible!

This chart looks at the INDA/SPX ratio since early 2012. The ratio continues to be in a major downtrend.

The ratio hit a 7-year low a few months ago and this week it kissed those lows again at (1). The ratio near weeks end is attempting to...



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Zero Hedge

Blain: "It's A Bad Week For The Credibility Of Mohammed bin Salman"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Blain's Morning Porrdige, submitted by Bill Blain of Shard Capital

Saudi….

Its turning into a bad week for the credibility of Mohammed bin Salman, the defacto ruler of Saudi.  After the Globe’s third largest defence spending state was crippled by supposedly unsophisticated Houthi rebels (with some likely assistance from Iran) when they struck his oil infrastructure, this morning the headlines are all about how MBS is now arm-twisting rich Saudi’s to buy into the discredited Aramco IPO. 

In...



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The Technical Traders

Precious Metals Setting Up Another Momentum Base/Bottom

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Just as we predicted, precious metals are setting up another extended momentum base/bottom that appears to be aligning
with our prediction of an early October 2019 new upside price leg.

Recent news of the US Fed decreasing the Fed Funds Rate by 25bp as well as strength in the US stock market and US Dollar as eased fears and concerns across the global markets.  These concerns and fears are still very real as the overnight credit market has continue to illustrate.  Yet, the precious metals have retraced from recent highs and begun to form a momentum base which will likely become the
floor for the next move higher.

The one aspect that many traders ...



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Insider Scoop

10 Biggest Price Target Changes For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Credit Suisse raised IHS Markit Ltd (NYSE: INFO) price target from $68 to $76. IHS Markit shares closed at $67.75 on Thursday.
  • Wedbush boosted Restoration Hardware Holdings, Inc (NYSE: RH) price target from $170 to $185. RH shares closed at $169.49 on Thursday.
  • Mizuho lifted Seagate Technology PLC (NASDAQ: STX) price target from $46 to $50. Seagate shares closed at $52.94 on Thursday.
  • UBS raised the price target for Weight Watchers Intern...


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Lee's Free Thinking

Federal Reserve Bank of New York Statement On Repurchase Operation - Roll Over Beethoven!

Courtesy of Lee Adler

This is a syndicated repost courtesy of NY | Press Releases. Original: Statement Regarding Repurchase Operation. Reposted with permission. 

September 19, 2019

In accordance with the FOMC Directive issued September 18, 2019, the Open Market Trading Desk (the Desk) at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York will conduct an overnight repurchase agreement (repo) operation from 8:15 AM ET to 8:30 AM ET tomorrow, Friday, September 20, 2019, in order to help maintain the federal funds rate within the target range of 1-3/4 to 2 percent.

This repo ...



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Chart School

Crude Oil Cycle Bottom aligns with Saudi Oil Attack

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Do the cycles know? Funny how cycle lows attract the need for higher prices, no matter what the news is!

These are the questions before markets on on Monday 16th Aug 2019:

1) A much higher oil price in quick time can not be tolerated by the consumer, as it gives birth to much higher inflation and a tax on the average Joe disposable income. This is recessionary pressure.

2) With (1) above the real issue will be the higher interest rate and US dollar effect on the SP500 near all time highs.

3) A moderately higher oil price is likely to be absorbed and be bullish as it creates income for struggling energy companies and the inflation shock may be muted. 

We shall see. 

...

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Digital Currencies

China Crypto Miners Wiped Out By Flood; Bitcoin Hash Rate Hits ATHs

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Last week, a devastating rainstorm in China's Sichuan province triggered mudslides, forcing local hydropower plants and cryptocurrency miners to halt operations, reported CoinDesk.

Torrential rains flooded some parts of Sichuan's mountainous Aba prefecture last Monday, with mudslides seen across 17 counties in the area, according to local government posts on Weibo. 

One of the worst-hit areas was Wenchuan county, ...



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Biotech

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Courtesy of  , Visual Capitalist

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

As evidence of cannabis’ many benefits mounts, so does the interest from the global pharmaceutical industry, known as Big Pharma. The entrance of such behemoths will radically transform the cannabis industry—once heavily stigmatized, it is now a potentially game-changing source of growth for countless co...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

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Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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