Posts Tagged ‘all about trends’

Mid-Week Market Update

Mid-Week Market Update

Courtesy of David at All About Trends

The best way to sum up this week’s action is "It’s A Market Of Stocks ". We’ve seen some really nice moves in many of our featured names with some nice paydays as well.

THE MARKET IN REVIEW

As you can see we are also overbought stochastically speaking as well. This is another reason we decided today to pullback on the throttles if you will.

Zooming into the 60 minute Time frequency allows for a more magnified view. The pink line on the chart above is the same pink line on the chart below. It’s a inflection point to say the least.

 

A break of the pink line could take us to the lower blue line ultimately, but the first stop would be that pink line and then net nowhere for 2+ months again. Here too even in a shorter term time frequency we’ve got that overbought level flashing stochastically speaking.

Moving on to the OTC composite

 

In Summary:

In a recent report we said:

With the dailies showing overbought and an up up and away move we want to watch for an initial pullback in the indexes to short term new support levels. For the SPX and OTC that would be right back to their initial breakout levels as shown above. Those pullbacks ought to relieve the overbought nature of the daily charts, then we look for another move higher baring an unforeseen news driven event. It’s in that potential move higher that our current watch list ought to shine.

If we are going to top it will most likely be after we pullback then make another run attempt.

Those comments still stand.
We will add one thing though and that is the chart below.

 

This chart covers the OTC composite off the 2002 lows and was our most recent cyclical bull market. What we want you to notice is in almost every single year this index has run into the end of the year and then went into a correction shortly thereafter. Folks we are in that window. It can happen at any time. Personally big picture you might want to stop thinking about the next 20-30% up move and start to think more about how am I going to protect what I’ve recently recouped off the March…
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Time To Short The Indexes?

Time To Short The Indexes?

Courtesy of David Grandey

All About Trends

We wanted to take a few minutes tonight to fill you in on a little index action that we are seeing develop.

First let’s take a look at the short-term index charts.

With each of the charts, you can clearly see they all have that same look:

1. All are pushing resistance aside from post-Fed knee jerk reaction.

2. All have that abc down of A (Oct. Lows)

3. All have that ABC up (thru today) of a Potential B

4. All have a PINK Pullback Off Lows line which is the opposite of a bullish Pullback Off Highs pattern.

A POH is a Pullback Off Highs LONG Side set up and a POL is a Pullback Off Lows SHORT Side set up.

Don’t get Elliott Wave? ABC’s? No matter, all you need to know is support-resistance and those Pink Lines. At this moment in time any break of the pink line sets up a short sell in the indexes with a break into new highs being a stop. For us? We will continue to focus upon the issues that have broken uptrends and are backtesting those trendline breaks.

NOTE: Do yourself a favor and get used to what Pullback Off Low patterns are because when this bear market rally truly ends it will be the only game in town. You can find out more about this pattern here.

One additional note about the above charts. As you can see from today’s peak you have the makings of a nano pullback off highs pattern. This means they could gap up up tommorrow to test the highs of today or a retest of the post-Fed emotional highs. If it happens then don’t be suprised. It would also be a double top at that point too which is the first sign of a change in trend from up to down.

In Summary: Those pink lines are all you need to know. A solid break sets up a potential C wave down to the Oct lows if not farther. BUT we’ll take it one step at a time.

While on the subject of double tops, we don’t care what anyone says. A double top is a double top.…
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All About Trends’ Market Review

MARKET IN REVIEW

BUYING STOCKS AT SAFE, ALTERNATIVE ENTRY POINTS

Courtesy of David Grandey at All About Trends

The big questions on a lot of folks minds are: "Was That It? and Did We Just Top?"  In order to answer those questions let’s look at what the daily index charts off the March 2009 lows have to say about that.

The Nasdaq, Dow and S&P indexes have uptrends that are still intact. The green lines, the blue line and the 50 day moving average are your guides. As of this moment, we see NO TOP on the market.

HOWEVER, IF we see a quick run sometime next week to a retest of the highs and then a pullback off of that retest, those developments will create a double top and we’ll be more apt to call a short term top at that time.

Why does the presence of a Double Top cause us to be more likely to change our position on the market? Because the Double Top is one of the most common early warning alert patterns warning of a change in trend.

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HOW TO BUY STOCKS AT SAFE, ALTERNATIVE ENTRY POINTS

So now that the indexes are pulling back, but remain in a clearly defined uptrend above their uptrend lines and 50-day moving averages, we want to focus on stocks that are in the same position and have simply pulled back off of their highs to those support levels. This is called trading in tandem with the market.

Now there are two ways to buy stocks. The first way is to find a stock that has formed a base and buy it when it breaks into new highs above the base. This is called buying a traditional breakout. Here’s a look at some recent breakouts:

 


As you can see with each of these, after breaking out, they quickly turned tail to retest what was resistance (now should be support), and each of them actually closed under support or back in the base. If you had bought them with a stop loss, chances are after a few feel-good days, you were stopped out.

Now let’s look at the second way:

As you can see here, this issue broke out. But most breakouts…
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Phil's Favorites

Momentum Monday - Growth Stocks Have COVID and Ivanhoff Lived

 

Momentum Monday – Growth Stocks Have COVID and Ivanhoff Lived

Courtesy of Howard Lindzon

Happy ‘markets closed’ Monday as we pay respects to Martin Luther King Jr.

Last week Ivanhoff had COVID, but the young scrappy man beat it.

We cannot say the same things about growth stocks which continue to struggle from the financial cocktail aftermath of it.

Here is this week’s episode of Momentum Monday. You can watch/listen right here or I have embedded it on my blog below:

Here a I...



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ValueWalk

Trillium Gold Mines (TSXV:TGM): How This Gold Company Might Hedge your Inflation Risk

By Adam Torkildson. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Investors are concerned about inflation and justifiably so. Consumer prices spiked in 2021 to levels not seen in decades in the U.S. and Canada; in fact, for most global economies, 2021 marked a sharp break from what has been an unusually long period of low-to-moderate inflation. Are we headed for a repeat of the 1970s when inflation reached double digits? If your investment does not generate sufficient returns to beat inflation, one thing is certain – inflation can erode the value of your portfolio, even if you maintain positive returns year-over-year. Many younger investors have never faced this invisible drain on their purchasing power.

Historically, gold as an asset class has proved its worth time and time again as an effective hedge against inflation and econ...



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Politics

What Supreme Court's block of vaccine mandate for large businesses will mean for public health: 4 questions answered

 

What Supreme Court’s block of vaccine mandate for large businesses will mean for public health: 4 questions answered

New York City’s vaccine mandates are unaffected by the court ruling. AP Photo/Mary Altaffer

Courtesy of Debbie Kaminer, Baruch College, CUNY

The U.S. Supreme Court on Jan. 13, 2022, blocke...



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Zero Hedge

Ghislaine Maxwell Will No Longer Fight To Keep Epstein 'John Does' Secret; Suspected Of 'Intimate Relationship' With Prince Andrew

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Convicted sex offender and UK socialite Ghislaine Maxwell will no longer appose keeping "vast swaths of information" about her "sex trafficking operation" with Jeffrey Epstein sealed, after accuser Virginia Roberts Giuffre requested they be made public, according to the Daily Mail.

One of Maxwell's lawyer stated in a letter to federal judge Loretta Preska last week that the defense team will no l...



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Chart School

US Dollar Short Term Cycle Peak Near - Update

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

The short term US Dollar cycle peak is upon us, it is time for capital flows to rule the direction of the DXY.



Previous Post: US Dollar Short Term Cycle Peak Near



Capital flows and interest rate differentials move currency around.



If capital flows take over, then they DXY is going into the 80's at least. Of course hiking rates 4 times is easier on the world when the DXY is near 80 rather than 95. A lot if US debt held by emerging markets is at risk otherwise. And yes a lower US dollar in early 2022 helps China out, as it suppo...



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Biotech/COVID-19

What Supreme Court's block of vaccine mandate for large businesses will mean for public health: 4 questions answered

 

What Supreme Court’s block of vaccine mandate for large businesses will mean for public health: 4 questions answered

New York City’s vaccine mandates are unaffected by the court ruling. AP Photo/Mary Altaffer

Courtesy of Debbie Kaminer, Baruch College, CUNY

The U.S. Supreme Court on Jan. 13, 2022, blocke...



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Digital Currencies

The metaverse is money and crypto is king - why you'll be on a blockchain when you're hopping

 

The metaverse is money and crypto is king – why you’ll be on a blockchain when you’re virtual-world hopping

In the metaverse, your avatar, the clothes it wears and the things it carries belong to you thanks to blockchain. Duncan Rawlinson - Duncan.co/Flickr, CC BY-NC

Courtesy of Rabindra Ratan, Michigan State University and Dar Meshi, Michigan State University ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Inflation About To Blast Off or Is The Peak In Play?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Current data suggests that inflation has been in our everyday lives for several months. And today’s Producer Price Index data was pretty ugly.

BUT… could inflation be peaking?

Today’s chart 2-pack offers a glimpse of why inflation could subside over the near-term.

Here we look at the “monthly” chart of the US Dollar and Euro currencies. It’s pretty easy to see the rising trend channel for the US Dollar and falling trend channel for the Euro. As well, both currencies have formed a wedge pattern, with the US Dollar testing resistance and the Euro testing support.

Shou...



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Promotions

Phil's Interview on Options Trading with TD Bank

TD Bank's host Bryan Rogers interviewed Phil on June 10 as part of TD's Options Education Month. If you missed the program, be sure to watch the video below. It should be required viewing for anyone trading or thinking about trading using options. 

Watch here:

TD's webinar with Phil (link) or right here at PSW

Screenshots of TD's slides illustrating Phil's examples:

 

 

&n...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider





About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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