Posts Tagged ‘alpha’

WARREN BUFFETT’S POOR RISK ADJUSTED RETURNS

WARREN BUFFETT’S POOR RISK ADJUSTED RETURNS

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist 

Here’s something I’d never seen done before – an analysis of Warren Buffett’s risk adjusted returns. Insider Monkey has run an interesting analysis on the Buffett portfolio calculating his alpha since 1977.  The conclusion – as Buffett has aged and grown in size his returns have become substantially worse on a risk adjusted basis:

“Warren Buffett had a phenomenal annual alpha of 19% between 1956 and 1968. Our current analysis shows that his alpha was more than 30% between 1977 and 1981. During the 80′s and 90′s, his annual alpha declined but was still better than 12%. For the ten years leading to mid-2003, his annual alpha stayed around 12% per year. Since then, it started a steep decline; by the end of 2004 it was (still a respectable) 6% per year.  Between 2005 and 2008 Buffett’s alpha averaged only 3% per year. Finally, in the ten years ending in 2009, it went virtually to zero. (For regression results and Buffett’s style drift, visit Insider Monkey)”

Warren Buffett

Is Warren Buffett another casualty of the tough investment environment?  Looks like we can chalk this up under the “many myths of Warren Buffett” file.


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Lack Of Stock Dispersion Hits All Time Record

Lack Of Stock Dispersion Hits All Time Record As Most Stocks Now Trade As One

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Fundamental analysis is no longer relevant as Alpha has just done one more revolution in its grave: today 1 Year Implied Correlation hit a new all time record, at 79.84 (out of 100 maximum possible), meaning the inverse of the metric, stock dispersion, or the measurement of the variation in individual stock prices, or broadly speaking alpha, is now completely irrelevant. As we have been saying for a year, "investing" is now all about a levered beta bet, using the maximum possible leverage, and sacrifices to Moloch, that the market does not turn before price targets are hit. At this rate we anticipate the next broad or acute selloff will take us to 100 in implied correlation, at which point there will be no benefit whatsoever to trading individual stocks: the entire market will be one big ETF.

As a clarification: the data comes from the CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index is a widely disseminated, market-based estimate of the average correlation of the stocks that comprise the S&P 500 Index. Using SPX options prices, together with the prices of options on the 50 largest stocks in the SPX. Tied to January 2011 Option Maturities.

h/t Credit Trader


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Animal Spirits ep 26

 

Animal Spirits ep 26

Courtesy of 

If you want to know what I’m doing this morning, I’m listening to the brand new episode of Animal Spirits. Our friend Morgan Housel jumped into the mix with Michael and Ben this week to record it. Three of the smartest people I know talking about the investing topics of the week – what’s better than this?

Make sure to subscribe so you never miss a new episode every week.

...

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Zero Hedge

Simon Black On "The Coming Boom In Gold Prices..."

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Simon Black via SovereignMan.com,

In June 1884, a local farmer named Jan Gerritt Bantjes discovered gold on his property in a quiet corner of the South African Republic.

Though no one had any idea at the time, Bantjes’ farm was located on a vast geological formation known as the Witwatersrand Basin… which just happens to contain the world’s largest known gold reserves.

Within a few months, other local farmers star...



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Chart School

S&P To Test 200-day MA

Courtesy of Declan

After yesterday's selling today's late recovery was a chance for bulls to catch some breadth.

The S&P came close to tagging the 200-day MA on the intraday low. The index is on a path to the lower channel. There was no technical change and relative performance remains weak.
 


The Nasdaq stalled mid-decline. Today's doji did not appear at a natural support level and the 200-day MA still looks the better support test but aggressive longs may try fish for a position here with a stop on a loss of 6,926.
...



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Digital Currencies

Crypto Billionaire Sued By VC Giant Sequoia Over Collapsed Funding Deal

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

By Marie Huillet, CoinTelegraph.com

Venture capital firm Sequoia is suing Zhao Changpeng, the CEO and founder of Binance, currently the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange by trade volume, for allege...



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Insider Scoop

Earnings Scheduled For April 25, 2018

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Companies Reporting Before The Bell
  • Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (NYSE: TMO) is projected to report quarterly earnings at $2.4 per share on revenue of $5.63 billion.
  • Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F) is expected to report quarterly earnings at $0.41 per share on revenue of $37.16 billion.
  • Twitter, Inc. ...


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Biotech

Why marijuana fans should not see approval for epilepsy drug as a win for weed

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Why marijuana fans should not see approval for epilepsy drug as a win for weed

Small vials of CBD, which some believe could be a cure for many ailments. Roxana Gonzalez/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Timothy Welty, Drake University

A Food and Drug Administration panel recommended approval of a drug made of cannabidiol on Ap...



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ValueWalk

Buffett At His Best

By csinvesting. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Bear with me as I share a bit of my history that helped me create SkyVu and the Battle Bears games. The University of Nebraska gave me my first job after college. I mostly pushed TV carts around, edited videos for professors or the occasional speaker event. One day, Warren Buffet came to campus to speak to the College of Business. I didn’t think much of this speech at the time but I saved it for some reason. 15 years later, as a founder of my own company, I watch and listen to this particular speech every year to remind myself of the fundamentals and values Mr. Buffett looks for. He’s addressing business students at his alma mater, so I think his style here is a bit more ‘close to home’ than in his other speeches. Hopefully many of you find great value in this video like I have. Sorry for the VHS...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

The Stock Bull Market Stops Here!

 

The Stock Bull Market Stops Here!

Courtesy of Kimble Charting

 

The definition of a bull market or bull trends widely vary. One of the more common criteria for bull markets is determined by the asset being above or below its 200 day moving average.

In my humble opinion, each index above remains in a bull trend, as triple support (200-day moving averages, 2-year rising support lines, and February lows) are still in play ...



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Members' Corner

Cambridge Analytica and the 2016 Election: What you need to know (updated)

 

"If you want to fundamentally reshape society, you first have to break it." ~ Christopher Wylie

[Interview: Cambridge Analytica whistleblower: 'We spent $1m harvesting millions of Facebook profiles' – video]

"You’ve probably heard by now that Cambridge Analytica, which is backed by the borderline-psychotic Mercer family and was formerly chaired by Steve Bannon, had a decisive role in manipulating voters on a one-by-one basis – using their own personal data to push them toward voting ...



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Mapping The Market

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

Via Jean-Luc

How propagandist beat science – they did it for the tobacco industry and now it's in favor of the energy companies:

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

The original tobacco strategy involved several lines of attack. One of these was to fund research that supported the industry and then publish only the results that fit the required narrative. “For instance, in 1954 the TIRC distributed a pamphlet entitled ‘A Scientific Perspective on the Cigarette Controversy’ to nearly 200,000 doctors, journalists, and policy-makers, in which they emphasized favorable research and questioned results supporting the contrary view,” say Weatherall and co, who call this approach biased production.

A second approach promoted independent research that happened to support ...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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