Posts Tagged ‘AM’

M&A Monday – Goldman’s Golden Goose

Hope springs eternal at Goldman Sachs.

This morning our favorite Banksters goosed the EU markets by upping targets on international mining operators Kazakhmys, Lonmin and BHP and that got the European markets off to a flying start out of the gate, despite the fact that UBS had just DOWNgraded the same sector on Friday.  UBS said on Friday that the sector is facing difficult times concerning potential growth with government rulings on mineral leases and the proposed supertax on mining profits in Australia set to hinder metal-based stocks.

We also have a lot of M&A activity, also courtesy of GS, who are leading the resurgence this year with 225 deals to date worth $401.6Bn, accounting for about 20% of all activity going through Goldman's sticky fingers.  In a sign of the times, however, GS only generated $961M in revenues as an M&A advisor as they cut a lot of discounts in order to land the top spot in dealmaking.  Although outdealt by GS, MS, Rothchild, JPM and DB all made more in fees than the Uncle Lloyd show.

In a sign of the end of times, GS's London Headquarters has been taken over by lenders after the owner fell into receivership.  GS's landlord, Antedon, is an offshore real estate firm that bought the building for $500M at the top of the market in 2007 and GS has locked up the building through 2026 at what seems to be not enough money to keep Antedon liquid – it would be very interesting to trace the web of deals that led to this massive default.  

Meanwhile, the consortium of Irish investors that own GS's other London building are also bailing out, this action is coinciding with what Ireland's Independent says is a campaign by Wall Street Hedge Funds to short sell Irish Government Bonds.  US hedge funds Groveland Capital and Corrientes Advisors are thought to have taken major positions against Irish debt. Giant €60bn asset-manager Pictet also revealed that it had earlier bet against Irish government bonds. JP Morgan is also thought to have taken a bearish position on Irish debt.  The International Monetary Fund estimated that up to €3bn of Ireland's debt was being targeted by speculators through the uses of derivatives.

So,…
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October Overview – When the Goblins Come Home to Roost

Rollercoaster monksWhat a crazy month we had! 

The Dow began the month of October at 9,712 and finished the month of October at EXACTLY 9,712.  Now I don't want to say the market is manipulated but…  No, I've got nothing, there are no buts – the market is totally manipulated!  Either that or you believe that the random outcome of tens of millions of traders around the globe trading hundreds of billions of shares of stock would just so happen to begin and end the month within .50 after going as low as 9,378.77 (on the 5th) and as high as 10,157.94 (on the 21st).  So that is literally a 1 out of the 779-point swing coincidence to hit that 9,712 nail on the head

At PSW we couldn't be happier about this frankly.  As I often say to members:  We don't care IF the game is rigged, as long as we can figure out HOW the game is rigged so we can play along.  We were bearish in our September 27th Wrap-Up when I predicted that Earnings season would bring about a "Return to Fundamentals."  We targeted retrace moves of Dow 9,512, S&P 1,020, Nasdaq  2,030, NYSE 9,496 and Russell 556 – all of which we hit the following Friday.

68017.strip.sunday

That week I highlighted my fundamental market concerns and Monday (9/28) my topic was "6 Unemployed People Per Available Job," Tuesday I said "Consumer Confidence is Key," Wednesday we caught the turn perfectly as I predicted "End of Quarter, End of Pump," and Thursday, October 1st was the day that "REIT's Turned Rotten" – which was something we had been playing for during the September rally so we were thrilled with what is NOW the 2nd worst down day of the month.  That was the day GS decided to agree with me that REITs were over-valued and gave us a signal that the Gang of 12 were no longer all on the same page.  Friday, the 2nd, we were back to looking at the Jobs numbers when I asked "Is Anybody Working for the Weekend."

We could not have been more pleased with what was the worst week in the market…
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Weekend Reading – Looking for Green Shoots

I've been beefing up our bullish plays on the Watch List.

If we're going to get more bullish I thought it would be a good time to look for some bullish premises so we don't feel totally silly paying 20-year high p/e's for the S&P 500.  Obviously, our main hope is that the stocks we buy will grow into their earnings so the next month's worth of reports will be key.  The bar for corporate earnings is still set at very easy to beat levels yet, like this limbo-playing child, when they announce their beats of very low expectations we're going to get all excited and tell them how great they are doing.

The problem is, these are not kids who we hope may grow up one day to be President or CEOs of major companies. these ARE CEOs of major companies and they are being paid top salaries for top performance and we, the stock purchasing public, are paying top dollar for what should be SPECTACULAR performance, not beating 75% off last year's earnings by a penny! 

When I am being asked to buy IBM back at it's all-time high or AMZN or BIDU or AM, PALM, NFLX, PCLN, URBN, UHS, CERN, CREE, GMCR, CY, SWM, TRLG, BKE, etc – then their performance better look like this:  

 

Nothing against those particular companies, any individual company can be exceptional and beat the market, but - Are the companies we're buying really doing exceptional things or are have we just developed such ridiculously low expectations that we have been psychologically conditioned (and Wall Street firms employ armies of behavioral psychologists for a reason) to treat these stocks and the CEOs who run them like our children?  If your child was the child in the above picture and I asked you for $20 to see her limbo show – you might pay it.  If it's not your child though, would you even consider making an afternoon of it?  No, of course not, for good money you expect to see the cool fire guy at the top of his game and that is what you should expect from companies trading at or near all-time highs – NO LESS!

I love President Obama but he was just given a Nobel Peace Prize simply for not being President Bush – low expectations!  On Sept 17th, PALM announced…
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Phil's Favorites

Does raising the minimum wage kill jobs? The centurylong search for the elusive answer shows why economics is so difficult – but data sure helps

 

Does raising the minimum wage kill jobs? The centurylong search for the elusive answer shows why economics is so difficult – but data sure helps

The fight over the minimum wage continues. AP Photo/John Raoux

Courtesy of Veronika Dolar, SUNY Old Westbury

For decades it was conventional wisdom in the field of economics that a higher minimum wage results i...



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Zero Hedge

Powell's Stock Trades Leaked, Show Multi-Million Sale As Market Tanked

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

With leaked trades in their personal accounts already costing two Fed presidents their jobs, and a third - vice chair Richard Clarida - currently on the ropes amid speculation he will soon follow, a few weeks ago we joked that if forces within the Fed want to get rid of all the hawks, they should just leak Esther George - the Fed's last remaining uberhawk - trading record.

If the Fed wants to get rid of all the hawks, they just need to leak Esther George's etrade blotter

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) ...

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Chart School

Price and Volume Swing Analysis on Bitcoin and Silver

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Many take guidance from news, pundits or advisors. Well sometimes the swings of price and volume are a better measure of what happens next.

The big boys do not accumulate or distribute in single 1 second trade, they build positions over weeks, months and years. They use price swings in the market to build or reduce positions, and you can see their intent by studying swings of price and volume and applying Tim Ord logic as written in his book called 'The Secret Science of Price and Volume: Techniques for Spotting Market Trends, Hot Sectors, and the Best Stocks'.

Tim Ord is a follower of Richard Wyckoff logic, his book has added to the studies of Richard Wyckoff, Richard Ney and Bob Evans.

Richard Wyckoff after years of...

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Digital Currencies

Ethereum's Turn To Outshine Bitcoin Is Coming, UBS Says

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

After a stellar start to the year, which saw its price soar to an all time high above $4,100, trouncing virtually all of its crypto peers, Ethereum has stagnated in recent weeks, with its place in the spotlight taken by bitcoin whose impressive outperformance has been the result of now confirmed speculation that a bitcoin futures ETF is coming. It also meant that what has traditionally been a close correlation between the two largest cryptos has broken in favor of the larger peer; it would also suggest that ethereum is trading about $1000 cheap vs bitcoin.

...



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Politics

Steve Bannon faces criminal charges over Jan. 6 panel snub, setting up a showdown over executive privilege

 

Steve Bannon faces criminal charges over Jan. 6 panel snub, setting up a showdown over executive privilege

Defiant or following Trump’s direction? John Lamparski/NurPhoto via Getty Images

Courtesy of Kirsten Carlson, Wayne State University

The House committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol is tasked with providing as full an account as possible of the attempted insurrection. But there is a problem: Not everyone is cooperating.

As of Oct. 14, 2021, Steve Bannon, a one-tim...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Ivermectin is a Nobel Prize-winning wonder drug - but not for COVID-19

 

Ivermectin is a Nobel Prize-winning wonder drug – but not for COVID-19

While ivermectin was originally used to treat river blindness, it has also been repurposed to treat other human parasitic infections. ISSOUF SANOGO/AFP via Getty Images

Courtesy of Jeffrey R. Aeschlimann, University of Connecticut

Ivermectin is an over 30-year-old wonder drug that treats life- and sight-threatening parasitic infections. Its lasting influence on global health has been so profound...



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Promotions

Phil's Interview on Options Trading with TD Bank

TD Bank's host Bryan Rogers interviewed Phil on June 10 as part of TD's Options Education Month. If you missed the program, be sure to watch the video below. It should be required viewing for anyone trading or thinking about trading using options. 

Watch here:

TD's webinar with Phil (link) or right here at PSW

Screenshots of TD's slides illustrating Phil's examples:

 

 

&n...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Crude Oil Cleared For Blast Off On This Dual Breakout?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is Crude Oil about to blast off and hit much higher prices? It might be worth being aware of what could be taking place this month in this important commodity!

Crude Oil has created lower highs over the past 13-years, since peaking back in 2008, along line (1).

It created a “Double Top at (2), then it proceeded to decline more than 60% in four months.

The countertrend rally in Crude Oil has it attempting to break above its 13-year falling resistance as well as its double top at (3).

A successful breakout at (3) would suggest Crude Oil is about to mo...



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ValueWalk

Managing Investments As A Charity Or Nonprofit

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Maintaining financial viability is a constant challenge for charities and nonprofit organizations.

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The past year has underscored that challenge. The pandemic has not just affected investment returns – it’s also had serious implications for charitable activities and the ability to fundraise. For some organizations, it’s even raised doubts about whether they can continue to operate.

Finding ways to generate long-term, sustainable returns for ...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.