Which Way Wednesday – Is the Appleconomy Over?
by phil - October 24th, 2012 8:32 am
AAPL is a total disaster.
There's no denying it now, they had their IPad Mini event yesterday and investors charged out of the stock, dropping it from a high of $633 (which is already 10% off the Sept highs) to close at $613 and that was finally weak enough to get us to capitulate and roll back our AAPL positions to longer-term trades that have less upside but, more importantly, less downside as we are no longer confident they'll be able to turn it around on Friday.
Notice how silly it seems to talk about how poorly AAPL is performing when the chart on the right pretty clearly indicates it's the greatest stock on Earth but that would be the logical conclusion for a company that's on track to earnings $43Bn this year, which is $81,811 a minute – more even than what they were tracking to make last month, when I set out bottom target at $600 (and that spread is an even better buy now) AND, only 68% of what they are projected to make next year!
We didn't really think it would hit $600 – that was our worst-case but here we are – at the worst case and, since we are no longer able to say with conviction that it can't get any worse, we had to back our short-term plays to something that buys us more time. In that same post we liked HPQ at $14.30 and at least they are holding that line and we also had a nice spread on that stock in the same post, which is still holding up as a new spread.
In that post I mentioned (as usual) our primary hedge being TZA and the straight-up April $15 calls mentioned there have gone up another .40, from $2.50 to $2.90 off our $2.10 entry (up 38%) – not bad against just a 15-point drop in the Russell (down 2%).
Yesterday, with our hedges already in place (see last Wednesday's TZA hedge and this Monday's DIA hedge) we had the luxury of doing some bottom-fishing yesterday with long trade ideas on TIVO at $9.78, USO at $31.75, AAPL at $623, CMG at $238 and our last trade idea for the day was SQQQ at $41.20 (that one, of…
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Bulls Eye Avon Products Put Options
by Option Review - April 18th, 2011 4:14 pm
Today’s tickers: AVP, CAT, AMD & GM
AVP - Avon Products, Inc. – Options traders exchanged more than 5 times as many put options as calls on Avon Products today, but it looks like most of the volume was generated by near-term bullish players. Shares in the global manufacturer and marketer of beauty products are currently down 0.85% to stand at $28.10 this afternoon. More than 14,000 put options changed hands at the May $26 strike on paltry previously existing open interest of 644 contracts. It looks like the majority of the puts were sold for a premium of $0.30 a-pop. Put sellers keep the full $0.30 premium per contract as long as Avon’s shares exceed $26.00 through expiration day next month. The deep out-of-the-money puts currently tout a delta of 0.20, or roughly a 20% chance of landing in-the-money. But, Avon Products is slated to report first-quarter earnings before the opening bell on May 3, 2011, and an earnings miss that sends shares in AVP lower, and therefore the delta and premium on the puts higher, could place put sellers in far less comfortable positions. Put sellers could have large amounts to stock put to them at an effective price of $25.70 – after factoring in the $0.30 premium received – if shares in Avon Products plunge 7.5% from the current price of $28.10 to trade beneath $26.00 at expiration. Shares in AVP have exceeded $26.00 since June 9, 2010.
CAT - Caterpillar, Inc. – Shares in the machinery maker joined in on the broad market decline today after Standard & Poor’s Rating Service cut the U.S.’s long-term credit outlook to negative on rising budget deficits and debt. Fears at home add to global concern that economic growth may slow in the event that Greece winds up in default. Caterpillar’s shares fell as much as 4.7% during the first half of the session to touch an intraday low of $102.16. Trading patterns in the weekly options suggest some investors are speculating on an immediate rebound…
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Contrarians Position for Medifast to Trim Losses
by Option Review - February 25th, 2011 4:03 pm
Today’s tickers: MED, AMD, NSM & AEM
MED - Medifast, Inc. – Shares in the maker of weight management products shed 12.0% this morning to touch down at an intra-session low of $22.19 following disappointing earnings from competitor NutriSystem, Inc. NTRI’s shares dropped 31.2% today to a fresh 52-week low of $13.90 post-earnings. Medifast’s earnings are just around the corner, with the report scheduled for release ahead of the opening bell on March 3, 2011. Despite the gloomy forecast out of NutriSystem, it looks like one investor is positioning for a more positive outcome from Medifast. The contrarian player appears to have purchased a debit call spread, buying 1,000 calls at the April $23 strike for an average premium of $2.19 each, and selling the same number of calls at an average premium of $0.99 apiece. The net cost of the bullish play amounts to $1.20 per contract and positions the trader to make money should MED’s shares bounce back up by around 9.0% to surpass the average breakeven point at $23.20 ahead of April expiration. Maximum potential profits of $1.80 per contract are available to the call-spreader if shares in Medifast rally 17.2% off today’s low of $22.19 to trade above $26.00 before the calls expire in April. The rise in demand for MED options helped lift options implied volatility on the stock 12.0% to 80.16% in early afternoon trade.
AMD - Advanced Micro Devices – A sizeable stock and options combination play on Advanced Micro Devices caught our eye this morning. It looks like one strategist initiated a delta neutral position on AMD in the July contract. Shares in the name are up 3.3% to arrive at $9.40 as of 12:50pm. The investor appears to have sold 319,000 shares of the underlying at a price of $9.34 each, and…
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Retail-Bear Initiates Put ‘Fly On XRT
by Option Review - October 25th, 2010 9:04 pm
Today’s tickers: XRT, SM, AMD, MEE, EXPE, CTV & MYL
XRT - SPDR S&P Retail ETF – Pessimism on the retail ETF took the form of a put butterfly spread today, suggesting one strategist is prepared for the price of the underlying fund to decline by December expiration. Shares of the XRT, an exchange-traded fund designed to track the performance of the S&P Retail Select Industry Index, are up 0.95% this afternoon to stand at $43.75 as of 3:10 p.m. in New York trading. The XRT’s shares are higher today following reports that economists increased estimates for consumer purchases in the third quarter after retail sales rose more than expected in September. But, nearly all of the activity in XRT options took place in puts and implies a bearish slant on the fund today. The butterfly spread involved the purchase of 5,600 puts at the December $43 strike at a premium of $1.45 each [wing 1], the sale of 11,200 puts at the December $39 strike for a premium of $0.47 per contract [body], and the purchase of 5,600 puts at the lower December $35 strike at a premium of $0.19 apiece [wing 2]. Net premium paid to initiate the bearish spread amounts to $0.70 per contract, thus positioning the investor to make money if shares of the XRT fall 3.3% from the current price of $43.75 to breach the effective breakeven point at $42.30 by expiration day in December. Maximum potential profits of $3.30 per contract are available to the trader if the price of the underlying fund declines 10.85% to settle at $39.00 at expiration. The investor paid $0.70 per contract, but stands prepared to gain more than 4.7 times that amount, or $3.30 per contract, if the transaction comes good by December expiration.
SM - SM Energy Co. – Shares of the U.S. producer of oil and natural gas rose 4.05% today to $42.34 as of 3:25 p.m. The current rally may be an extension of gains realized last week on news the…
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Jobless Thursday – America’s Infrastructure Crisis
by phil - September 9th, 2010 8:13 am
What a disaster!
Not only are our students failing to keep up with the rest of the World but America is close to getting a failing grade in Infrastructure. That’s right, what was once the World’s mightiest and proudest economy, this once great nation of builders has been given an overall grade of D in the American Society of Civil Engineers report on our Infrastructure.
The 2009 Grades include: Aviation (D), Bridges (C), Dams (D), Drinking Water (D-), Energy (D+), Hazardous Waste (D), Inland Waterways (D-), Levees (D-), Public Parks and Recreation (C-), Rail (C-), Roads (D-), Schools (D), Solid Waste (C+), Transit (D), and Wastewater (D-). Awful? Shameful? How about DANGEROUS? Deadly even…
For one thing, The number of high hazard dams—dams that, should they fail, pose a significant risk to human life—has increased by more than 3,000 just since 2007, when there were "just" 1,000 dams at risk and 3,000 to pro actively maintain but the administration refused to fund the project, now the costs have tripled as the situation deteriorates but that’s nothing compared to what happens if just a few of them break completely. 1,819 dams are now in the "high hazard" category and, with the current budget, for every one damn that is reparied, two more become an emergency.
In urban areas, roadway congestion tops 40 percent. According to the report, decades of underfunding and inattention have jeopardized the ability of our nation’s infrastructure to support our economy and facilitate our way of life. At risk of catastrophic failure besides the dams (including levees) are things like our drinking water, sewage systems, bridges, waterways, rail lines, airports, roadways (especially elevated ones) and, of course, our entire electrical grid. Additionally, 7 Billion gallons of clean drinking water is lost every day through leaking pipes – that’s 23 gallons per citizen per day WASTED for want of $11Bn in repairs – don’t bother worrying about it, the last Administration wouldn’t fund it in 2001 or 2006 so why bother now – 10 Trillion gallons later?
The ASCE calculates a 5-year $2.2Tn investment is needed to address the situation, that’s $500Bn (25%) more than it was 5-years ago, when they released their last report and nothing was done by the previous administration. So, rather than having invested in America, putting people to work and improving EVERYONE’s way of life, we spent over $1Tn fighting a war, another $600Bn a year on our regular military operations and gave over $1Tn worth of taxe breaks…
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Testy Tuesday – Already?
by phil - July 13th, 2010 8:19 am
Wheeeee, this is fun!
It's only been a week since I called for "Turnaround Tuesday" and asked the question "Will CNBC Apologize to America" for their ridiculous, sickening parade of negativity that chased their poor viewers out of the market (now 600 points ago) by completely misrepresenting the economic outlook in order to protect the TERRIBLE advice given by Jim Cramer, the Fast Money Crew, their sponsors etc. etc. – it was all one national frenzy of media negativity designed to shove retail investors entirely out of the market while the cognoscenti went shopping.
It's not just CNBC, of course, it's a problem with the whole MSM but I ranted about corporate (top 0.01%) control of the media last week so let's move on as we wave bye-bye to all the beautiful sheeple who were kind enough to sell us their stocks at the bottom, despite my warnings. Our 500% upside plays are now well on their way to making 500% for us and our "9 Fabulous Dow Plays Plus a Chip Shot" are also looking good already. Even the trade ideas I mentioned right in last Tuesday's post are well on track as I said last week:
On Friday, I had said to Members right at 9:38, in the Morning Alert: "If we run up, then it will be prudent to get more neutral into the weekend but if we stay down and hold our levels, then saying a little bullish will be fine. Out of short-term short trades if you haven’t already. Keep in mind we have some great 500% upside plays you can still grab here if you think you are too short."
The latter was a reference to our 500% upside plays. We also went with EEM July $38 calls at .99, and a QLD $50/53 bull call spread for $1.30 (selling puts as well for more profits) as well as long plays on RIMM, AA, HOV, VLO and TASR. My optimism was based on the considered TA analysis I shared with Members at 2:39:
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After completing last month’s "Omega III" market pattern on the Trade Bots, it’s now time to spring the bear trap and run the "Apha II" into options expiration
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Vale SA Entices Bulls and Bears to Options Arena
by Option Review - June 14th, 2010 4:42 pm
Today’s tickers: VALE, TIVO, MS, CNQ, LVS, PBR & AMD
VALE – Vale SA – Two opposite-minded options strategists initiated directional plays on the Brazilian metals and mining firm in the July contract today. Shares of the world’s biggest iron ore producer are currently flat at $27.03 as of 3:30 pm (ET). One of the investors populating the July contract purchased a bearish put spread while the other trader enacted a bullish risk reversal. The pessimistic player picked up 6,000 puts at the July $26 strike for a premium of $0.81 apiece, spread against the sale of the same number of puts at the lower July $22 strike for a premium of $0.20 each. The net cost of the put spread amounts to $0.61 per contract. The put-spreader is positioned to profit should shares of the underlying stock decline 6.05% from the current price to breach the effective breakeven point to the downside at $25.39 by expiration. Maximum available profits of $3.39 per contract pad the investor’s wallet if Vale’s shares plummet 18.6% to $22.00 ahead of expiration day in July. In contrast to the bearish put spread, another options strategist initiated a bullish risk reversal, selling 4,000 puts at the July $25 strike for a premium of $0.57 each, in order to purchase the same number of calls at the higher July $30 strike for a premium of $0.46 apiece. The responsible party pockets a net credit of $0.11 per contract, and keeps the full amount as long as Vale’s shares exceed $25.00 through July expiration. Additional profits accumulate if shares of the underlying stock rally 11% to surpass the $30.00-level by expiration day next month. Options implied volatility on Vale SA is higher by 7.7% to 46.29% just before 3:40 pm (ET).
TIVO – TiVo, Inc. – Shares of the provider of technology and services for TiVo® subscription-based digital video recorders shot up as much as 8.25% today to touch an intraday high of $8.26 on speculation DirecTV is considering a buyout. The rally in the price of the underlying stock and takeover chatter inspired bullish options activity on TIVO during the session. One long-term optimist purchased a plain-vanilla debit call spread to position for sharply higher shares by expiration in January 2011. The investor picked up 1,000 calls at the January 2011 $11 strike for a premium of $1.16 each, and sold the same number of calls…
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Gold Bull Buys Butterfly Spread
by Option Review - May 12th, 2010 4:24 pm
Today’s tickers: GLD, AA, KR, AMD, HAL, LOW, CTRP, STR & LPX
GLD – SPDR Gold Trust ETF – Gilded butterfly wings unfurled in the July contract on the GLD, an exchange-traded fund designed to mirror the performance of the price of gold bullion, in afternoon trading with shares of the underlying fund flying 1.30% higher at a new 52-week high of $122.24. Options investors exchanged more than 478,100 contracts on the gold fund as of 3:35 pm (ET). Overall, trading action on the GLD was dominated by bullish players tossing around more than 2 call options to each single put option in play today. One bullish individual expecting the price of gold bullion to continue to appreciate in the next few months purchased a call butterfly spread in the July contract. The investor picked up 6,500 calls at the July $123 strike for an average premium of $4.40 each [wing 1], in combination with the purchase of 6,500 calls at the higher July $143 strike for $0.63 apiece [wing 2]. The third leg of the trade centered at the July $133 strike where 13,000 calls were sold for a premium of $1.59 a-pop [body]. The net cost of the spread amounts to $1.85 per contract and represents maximum loss potential assumed by the investor responsible for the transaction. Shares of the GLD must rally at least 2.15% over the new 52-week high of $122.24 before the investor starts to make money above the effective breakeven price of $124.85. Maximum potential profits of $8.15 per contract are available to the trader should shares of the underlying fund surge 8.80% to settle at $133.00 by July expiration. The spread is a very efficient way for this individual to take a bullish stance because the potential rewards are 4.4 times greater than potential losses.
AA – Alcoa, Inc. – The sale of a large chunk of June contract call options may be the work of an optimistic investor initiating a covered call on the stock. The aluminum maker’s shares are currently up 2.80% to $12.47 with 10 minutes remaining the session. It looks like one investor sold 19,000 calls at the June $13 strike for a premium of $0.42 apiece at around 1:06:16 pm (ET) when shares of the underlying stock were trading at $12.45 each. If the calls were sold in combination with the purchase of 1.9 million shares of stock –…
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Bullish Option Play at State Street Despite Weaker Shares
by Option Review - May 27th, 2009 4:51 pm
Today’s tickers: STT, HPQ, AMAT, PBR, BYD, AMD, VALE & ITUB
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Host Hotels & Resorts Put Options Sold
by Option Review - May 13th, 2009 6:19 pm
Today’s tickers: HST, GSI, CST, MGM, UNH, AMD, XLI & XLY
HST Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc. – The stock has shed more than 9% to stand at $7.66 on the day. One investor has positioned himself to have shares put to him by expiration in June should shares continue to decline. The sale of 13,000 puts at the June 7.5 strike price for an average premium of 73 cents apiece allows this individual to accept the premium today while bearing the risk that shares continue to decline through $7.50 by expiration. If the puts land in-the-money, he will likely have the shares put to him at an effective price of $6.77. The stock last traded at $6.76 back on January 16, 2009 after declining from its 52-week high of $18.36 nearly one year ago to the day. The investor probably figures that if the puts remain out-of-the-money he retains the premium and is happy. If the puts land in-the-money he is also happy to have shares put to him at approximately one-third the value of the 52-week high for the stock.
GSI General Steel Holdings, Inc. – Shares of the operator of a number of Chinese steel companies have taken a nosedive today, losing more than 14.5% to stand at $4.72. The stock has eroded despite the fact that the firm’s adjusted earnings per share of 9 cents for the period ended March 31, 2009, beat analyst expectations which estimated loss of about a nickel per share. In line with the bearish move in the stock, one investor loaded up on downside protection in the near-term May contract. The sale of 5,000 calls at the May 5.0 strike price for a premium of 10 cents apiece was spread against the purchase of 5,000 puts at the same strike for 40 cents each. The net cost of the transaction amounts to 30 cents and yields a breakeven point to the downside at $4.70. The stock must fall by at least 2 pennies before the trader begins to experience gains on the long put position.
COST Costco Wholesale Corp. – The operator of membership warehouses that offer branded and private label goods ranging from gruyere cheese wedges to diamond rings has experienced a more than 2.5% decline to $45.49. We observed option traders bracing themselves for potential continued bearish movement in the stock. Investors loaded up on 4,400 puts at the…
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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Ilene is editor and affiliate program
coordinator for PSW.
