Posts Tagged ‘AONE’

Wednesday – Waiting for the Other Shoes to Drop

EWP WEEKLY What next?

$125Bn for Spain AND they are going to be given 5 years before having to pay back their loans and rumor has it that it will be a 10-year payment period at 3%.  Sure, why not?   At least that way we can pretend they are going to pay everyone back, rather than watch them default just a few months after we lend them the money, like Greece.

As we expected, Italy is the next crisis on deck as their 10-year bond yeilds climb over 6% as Italy's $2.4Tn debt (120% of GDP) running at 6% interest ($144Bn a year = 7.5% of GDP) is going to require a lot more than $100Bn to stop the bleeding.  At the same time, Mr. Monti's tax-heavy austerity measures have choked economic growth, causing Italy's economy to contract 0.8% in the first four months of the year.  

Mr. Monti lashed back at an Austrian minister on Tuesday for questioning whether Italy might need financial assistance to ride out the crisis.  "I find it completely inappropriate that representatives of other governments in the European Union are talking about the situations of other countries," Mr. Monti said during a news conference, adding that his government was "continuing to work to guarantee the financial stability of the euro zone."

Clearly the honeymoon is over for Monti with a poll last week finding that only half of Italians supported political parties that form Mr. Monti's parliamentary majority, down from 63% two months ago. Confidence in Mr. Monti among those surveyed fell to 34%, compared with 71% when Mr. Monti took office.  The steady erosion of public support for Mr. Monti's government is also prompting some politicians to question whether Mr. Monti can still push through the tough changes demanded by EU leaders.

You can see from the chart on the left what a tremendous drag the global markets (down 12.5% in a year) are becoming on the S&P (down 2.5%).  If nothing is going to happen to snap the Global markets up – well, you do the math…

SPY 5 MINUTEThat math is keeping us Cashy and Cautious in this horribly choppy market and it's a good thing as we've been flip-flopping like…
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Options Active In Biotechnology Space

 

Today’s tickers: IBB, AMAG & AONE

IBB - iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology Index Fund – Shares in the IBB, an ETF that tracks the performance of the NASDAQ Biotechnology Index, an index containing securities of companies classified as either biotechnology or pharmaceuticals, are outperforming the S&P 500 this morning, up 0.40% at $112.73 as of 11:30 a.m. in New York. The Fund’s shares are slightly off their all-time high of $114.87 set last Thursday, and options activity on the ETF today suggests one strategist may be locking in recent gains ahead of a spate of earnings releases from companies in the Index. The top 10 holdings represent more than 50% of the total Index. Amgen, Inc. and Celgene Corp. are the two largest holdings, comprising approximately 8.8% and 6.6%, respectively. Both companies are scheduled to report earnings this Thursday. The strategist responsible for the single largest transaction in IBB options today may be hedging a long position in the index or components, or may be taking an outright bearish stance on the biotech and pharmaceuticals space during earnings season. The trader appears to have sold around 4,500 calls at the Mar. $115 strike in order to partially finance the purchase of a 4,500-lot Mar. $107/$112 put spread, all for a net premium outlay of $0.05 per contract. The sale of the call options greatly reduced the cost of the put spread, which may yield profits – or downside protection – to the investor in the event that shares in the IBB dip 0.70% to breach the effective breakeven price of $111.95. Maximum potential profits of $4.95 per contract are available on the position should shares drop 5.1% to settle at or below $107.00 at expiration. The short calls, if uncovered, could result in losses on the trade in the event that the Fund’s shares rally to new record highs by expiration in March.…
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Wednesday Wheeeee – We Love it When a Plan Comes Together!

Once again, we're done with our day before you get up.  

In my 5am note to Members, I said: "I see nothing in the news to justify this pre-market "recovery" and I hate to sound like a broken record but I like shorting oil (/CL) if we get below that $102 line with tight stops and the Dow (/YM) is right at 12,400, which is a great spot to short. RUT (/TF) is at 762 and below 760 (same as yesterday) will confirm a downturn but 12,400 is a great line so why wait?"  By 6:26, I was able to follow it up with:

And wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!  There go the Futures!

It's 7:07 and we're still going down, with oil at $101.24 (up $760 per contract) and the Dow at 12,340 (up $300 per contract) and, as Dennis said: "Good enough for steak and eggs for me!"  Roro got up late but still caught the Dow at 6:16 and that was right on the nose for the oil drop as well as we hit it right on the nose this morning and now we're done and waiting for the next good set-up.  

Of course we scale in and scale out of positions as there's no need to get greedy in the Futures, where a single remaining contract catching a $1 move down in oil (now $101.25 again) pays $1,000.  This week, we have even stationed our own Craigzooka in New Zealand, where it's tomorrow – which makes it much easier to bet on today's action as he can tell us what happened already!  Not that today was all that hard to predict, right?  My comment to Members LAST Wednesday was:

It’s been a pretty reliable bet that they tank the markets into the longer-term note auctions because it scares people into T-Bills and keeps the rates low.  From this line-up, it


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Staples Firm – Proctor & Gamble Options Suggest Further Upside

Today’s tickers: PG, CTXS, LINTA, HIG, CVS, UUP, VIX, AONE, SWKS, CLX, BCSI & NVDA

PG – The Proctor & Gamble Co. – Bullish action on Proctor & Gamble today suggests one investor expects shares to continue to rally ahead of expiration in November. Shares are currently trading 1% higher to $61.13. The trader purchased 10,000 calls at the now in-the-money November 60 strike for 1.39 each, and simultaneously sold 10,000 calls at the higher November 62.5 strike for 26 cents apiece. The net cost of buying the call spread amounts to 1.13 per contract and yields maximum potential profits of 1.37 each if shares rally up to $62.50 by expiration. Shares need only rally another 2.2% from the current price to reach the $62.50-level.

CTXS – Citrix Systems, Inc. – Software developer, Citrix Systems, attracted bullish option traders to the November contract today amid a 1% increase in shares to $38.80. Investors displayed optimistic sentiment on the stock by selling approximately 10,600 puts at the November 35 strike for 10 cents premium apiece. Put-sellers retain the full dime-per-contract as long as shares remain above $35.00 through expiration this month. Shares of CTXS have traded above $36.00 since September 4, 2009.

LINTA – Liberty Media Corp. – Shares of the broadcasting and entertainment company rallied 1% during the trading session to $12.14. Plain-vanilla call buying action on the stock today suggests some investors expect shares to rise significantly by expiration in January 2010. Traders purchased about 11,800 calls at the January 15 strike for an average premium of 25 cents apiece. Call-buyers will accumulate profits if shares surge at least 26% from the current price to surpass the breakeven point at $15.25 by expiration.

HIG – Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. – Medium-term investors placed bearish bets on the insurance and financial services firm today. Shares are currently trading less than 0.25% higher to $24.16 after suffering significant erosion throughout the week. One pessimistic trader initiated a bearish risk reversal in the January 2010 contract. The investor sold 4,500 calls at the January 27 strike for an average premium of 78 cents apiece to partially finance the purchase of the same number of put options at the lower January 21 strike for 1.68 each. The net cost of the transaction is reduced to a more palatable 90 cents per contract, but does leave the investor exposed in the event of…
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Phil's Favorites

Goldman Sachs Refuses to Say If It Was Placing Trades for Dallas Fed President Kaplan as Materially False Statement Released by Board on Kaplan's Relationship with Goldman Sachs

Courtesy of Pam Martens

Federal Reserve Building in Washington, D.C.

The biggest trading scandal in the Federal Reserve’s 108-year history took down two Federal Reserve Bank Presidents yesterday. Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, who traded in and out of REITs last year in amounts of $1,000 to $50,000, will leave this Thursday; Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan, whose trading made Rosengren look like a Boy Scout, will step down from his post at the e...



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Zero Hedge

Blain: The Threat Board Is Looking Busy

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Bill Blain via MorningPorridge.com,

“Many people have speculated that if we knew exactly why the bowl of petunias had thought that we would know a lot more about the nature of the Universe than we do now.”

Markets are never as bad as you fear, but never as good as you hope. The Threat Board has seldom looked so complex: we can try to predict outcomes, but its notoriously difficult. The list of potential ignition points seems to be expanding ex...



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Biotech/COVID-19

New Johnson & Johnson data shows second shot boosts antibodies and protection against COVID-19 - but one dose is still strong against delta variant

 

New Johnson & Johnson data shows second shot boosts antibodies and protection against COVID-19 – but one dose is still strong against delta variant

Public health officials have been waiting for good data before making any decisions about booster shots for people who received Johnson & Johnson’s Janssen COVID-19 vaccine. AP Photo/Mary Altaffer

Courtesy of Maureen Ferran, Rochester Institute of Technology ...



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Chart School

Silver during periods of Industrial Inflation

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

When industrial inflation is hotter than consumer inflation silver does well.

Previous Post: Silver, after the FED said taper talk is a long way off

In the chart below we see the relationship between silver and the yield curve and the Producer Price Inflation. 

The yield curve is the US 30 yr interest rate less the Fed Funds interest rate (blue line). When the blue line is high a steep yield curve is present, and when it is low a flat yield curve is present. A steep yield curve is when longer term rates are higher than short term rates vica versa for a flat yi...

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Digital Currencies

China Declares All Virtual Currency Transactions "Illegal", Sending Crypto Prices Tumbling

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

China expanded its escalating crackdown on cryptocurrencies on Friday when its central bank declared that all activities related to digital coins are “illegal” and must be banned.

In a statement dated Sept. 15 but was only posted onto the central bank’s website at 5 p.m. local time on Friday, the People’s Bank of China said the latest notice was to further prevent the risks surrounding crypto trading and to maintain national security and social stability.

Naming bitcoin, ether and tether as examples, the centra...



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Politics

'What Betrayal Looks Like': UN Report Says World on Track for 2.7°C of Warming by 2100

 

Image by Gerd Altmann from Pixabay

'What Betrayal Looks Like': UN Report Says World on Track for 2.7°C of Warming by 2100

"Whatever our so-called 'leaders' are doing," said Swedish climate activist Greta Thunberg, "they are doing it wrong."

By Jake Johnson, Common Dreams

The United Nations warned Friday t...



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Promotions

Phil's Interview on Options Trading with TD Bank

TD Bank's host Bryan Rogers interviewed Phil on June 10 as part of TD's Options Education Month. If you missed the program, be sure to watch the video below. It should be required viewing for anyone trading or thinking about trading using options. 

Watch here:

TD's webinar with Phil (link) or right here at PSW

Screenshots of TD's slides illustrating Phil's examples:

 

 

&n...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Crude Oil Cleared For Blast Off On This Dual Breakout?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is Crude Oil about to blast off and hit much higher prices? It might be worth being aware of what could be taking place this month in this important commodity!

Crude Oil has created lower highs over the past 13-years, since peaking back in 2008, along line (1).

It created a “Double Top at (2), then it proceeded to decline more than 60% in four months.

The countertrend rally in Crude Oil has it attempting to break above its 13-year falling resistance as well as its double top at (3).

A successful breakout at (3) would suggest Crude Oil is about to mo...



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ValueWalk

Managing Investments As A Charity Or Nonprofit

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Maintaining financial viability is a constant challenge for charities and nonprofit organizations.

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The past year has underscored that challenge. The pandemic has not just affected investment returns – it’s also had serious implications for charitable activities and the ability to fundraise. For some organizations, it’s even raised doubts about whether they can continue to operate.

Finding ways to generate long-term, sustainable returns for ...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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