Posts Tagged ‘AXS’

Dark Horse Hedge is Rocking On

By Scott at Sabrient and Ilene 


Screen shot 2011-03-07 at 11.15.05 AM Stand up and be counted
For what you are about to receive
We are the (primary) dealers
We’ll give you everything you need (free money!)
Hail, Hail to the good times’
Cause rock has got the right of way
We ain’t no legend, aint no cause
We’re just livin for today (the Fed)

For those about to rock, we salute you – AC/DC

Dark Horse Hedge is Rocking On

With February and the most of earnings season passing, we decided to "stand up and be counted" with a summary article on the VIRTUAL Dark Horse Traders’ Hedge (DHH) virtual portfolio.  

Our mission has been to generate absolute returns through the use of a tilted Long/Short strategy that remains market neutral, but with a partial bias towards momentum (as defined by measuring the S&P 500 relative to its 50 and 200 day Moving Averages). We have been tilted to the long side since October 2010.  

Over the long term, reasons for using such a strategy include being positioned to take advantage of both bull and bear runs. As evidenced by the near zero returns of the market over the last 10 years, buy-and-hold strategies are majorly flawed. The market also teaches hard lessons to those who attempt to predict direction, and has forced many retail investors to reconsider their strategies after being pounded in 2001 and 2008.  

Alpha is a measure of a return over and above a benchmark index’s return, and Beta is a measure of the virtual portfolio’s performance as it is correlated to movements of the market.  With DHH, we strive to optimize Alpha while minimizing Beta to protect our virtual portfolio in up and down markets. Beta is reduced by holding both Long and Short positions and using a rules-based approach to determine which stocks have the best chacteristics to benefit when the market is rising, and conversely to determine which stocks are most apt to perform poorly when the market is falling. In other words, we want to be long stocks of the best companies and short stocks of the worst companies – we want to identify the "tails" of a market, index, sector or basket of stocks.

Once a virtual portfolio of Long and Short stocks is established, then it is a matter of gaining the desired exposure using the available…
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DARK HORSE HEDGE – Can’t Get No Satisfaction

DARK HORSE HEDGE – Can’t Get No Satisfaction

Courtesy of Scott Brown at Sabrient and Ilene at PSW 

When I’m drivin’ in my car 
And that man comes on the radio 
He’s tellin’ me more and more 
About some useless information 
Supposed to fire my imagination 
I can’t get no, oh no no no 
Hey hey hey, that’s what I say 

I can’t get no satisfaction, The Rolling Stones 

Phil Davis put the “He’s tellin’ me more and more, About some useless information” into perspective Tuesday when he wrote:

Nice market take-down by the Journal this morning, who led off with an article questioning the EU stress tests saying: "From this point of view, it is not surprising that the doubts raised about the validity of the stress tests are weighing on the Euro and also on other risk-correlated currencies."  Then, to make sure no one misses the article, they run another headline for the US markets that says "Concerns Over EU Banks Hit Euro" in which they quote themselves:

"New concerns about the ability of European banks to weather the financial crisis came after the WSJ story highlighted once again the weaknesses of the stress tests. The report helped to widen the bond spreads on peripheral debtors and knocked European stock markets lower as another wave of euro zone jitters hit the market."

Phil continued: “think about the “nature” of this story.  There is nothing NEW in this NEWs, is there? It’s the kind of article that could be written any time someone wants to push the markets.  Even the data they are using is from back on 3/31 – they didn’t even bother to update their facts for Q2!”  

Sure enough by Wednesday, 24 hours later, the headlines countered: “Stocks resume rally as European debt worries ease.”

It is worth noting…
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Monday Market Movement – Pattern Recognition

Here’s a scary chart pattern for you from our Chart School:

Elliot Wave Trends points out that the S&P has fallen into a fractal patten that may be repeating the behavior of the great drop of ’08, right here, right now.  Of course patterns do SEEM to repeat themselves all the time – until they don’t – but it will be interesting this week and next to see if we follow-through with a flatline, followed by a drop to 1,000 from which we falsely back to 1,050 and then plunge to our doom as Santa foresakes us and we run all the way back down to our lows.

That’s where they lose me.  Charts are fun and all but I see no basis for going back to our lows as our lows were ridiculous and caused by panic-selling in a doomsday scenario.  Hard to imagine things will fall apart that badly between now and Jan earnings although I do believe we will have a rough time — just not that rough! 

Economy barrons surveyBarron’s surveyed Money Managers this weekend and they don’t seem to think things will be rough at all.  52% of those surveyed think there is NO WAY we will have a double dip recession.  76% believe that the decline in corporate profits has ended and 68% believe our GDP wil grow more than 2.5% in Q4 while just 10% believe it is possible for commodity pricing to fall in the next 6 months.  You know what they say about when everyone is on the same side of a bet of course! 

These are the people we give our money to – the biggest and "brightest" of hedge fund managers who control over $1Tn of assets under management.  Favorite stocks in the group are: MSFT, ABT, BAC, BRK.A, CVS, GE, GS, LEG and QCOM.  Stocks that are considered overvalued are: AIG, AAPL, GOOG, CAT, AMZN, C, GE, GMCR, VZ and YHOO.  Ony 7% think Asian stocks are heading lowed, just 1% less than 8% who feel oil is going down; 92% don’t feel oil will go down

Everybody likes Tech (just 0.9% think it will be the worst performing sector) and nobody likes the Financials (22.5% think it will be the worst performing sector) followed by Consumer Cyclicals (20.7%) and, oddly, Utilities (15.3%).  The sectors picked as the best performers for the next 6-12 months are Tech (18.9%), Energy (17.1%) and Health Care (17.1%).  Only…
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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Tuesday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • The Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index for the latest week is schedule for release at 8:55 a.m. ET.
  • San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly is set to speak at 4:30 p.m. ET.
  • Federal Reserve Board of Governors Vice Chairman for Supervision Randal Quarles will speak in Salt Lake City, Utah at 6:00 p.m. ET.

Posted-In: Economic DataNews Economics ...



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Phil's Favorites

"Make It Stop"

 

“Make It Stop”

Courtesy of 

Every time the stock market falls, no really, every single time, a friend of mine texts me the same thing: “Make it stop.” And every time I tell him the same thing- “You should hope stocks go a lot lower.”

For people still contributing to their retirement accounts, they shouldn’t fear lower prices, they should pray for them.

Let’s look at a real world hypothetical example.

I sorted all twenty-year rolling returns for the S&P 500 and plucked returns near the median. Stocks had nearly identical compound annual growth rates in the ...



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Zero Hedge

Nomura: Global Equity Sentiment "Has Managed To Avoid 'The Panic Zone'"... For Now

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

US equity markets are excitedly recovering last week's losses as hope once again washes across global markets that lower rates, fiscal recklessness will save the world. The explicit driver of the bounce is yet another short-squeeze - the second biggest since the start of 2019.

Source: Bloomberg

The last time we saw a bounce like this was the first days of June, when - again - a heavy oversold reading going into a barrage of Fed speakers prompted m...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Transports 10-Year Bullish Trend Being Tested! Rally Time or Breakdown?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is the DJ Transportation Index presenting a rare buying opportunity? The broad market most likely hopes so!

Transports have spent the majority of the past decade creating a series of higher lows. This pattern has created rising channel (1), which started back in 2009.

Transports have created a bearish divergence to the S&P 500 over the past 20-months, as they have created lower highs, while the S&P has done the exact opposite.

The softness in Transports has the testing its May lows and the 10-year rising channel to start out the week at (2). While testing...



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The Technical Traders

August 19 Turn Date is Tomorrow - Are You Ready?

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our August 19 breakdown prediction from
months ago has really taken root with many of our followers and readers.  We’ve been getting emails and messages from
hundreds of our followers asking for updates regarding this prediction.  Well, here is the last update before the
August 19th date (tomorrow) and we hope you have been taking our
research to heart. 

First, we believe the August 19 breakdown
date will be the start of something that could last for more than 5 to 12+
months.  So, please understand that our
predicted date is not a make-or-break type of scenario for traders.  It means that we believe this date...



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Lee's Free Thinking

The Treasury Supply Drumbeat Has Begun

Courtesy of Lee Adler

The beat goes on. The US Treasury announced a 30 year TIPS issue today, bringing net new Treasury supply for the month so far to $119 billion. 

Here are the details:

Term and Type: 29-Year 6-Month TIPS

Reopening: Yes

Offering Amount: 7 Billion

Announcement Date: 08/15/2019

Auction Date: 08/22/2019

Issue Date: 08/30/2019

Maturity Date: 02/15/2049

PDF | XML

Supply will pound the financial markets to a pulp as far as the eye can see. Those who are currently panicking to buy Treasuries at these ...



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Chart School

Bitcoin 2019 fractal with Gold 2013

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Funny how price action patterns repeat, double tops, head and shoulders. These are simply market fractals of supply and demand.

More from RTT Tv

Ref: US Crypto Holders Only Have a Few Days to Reply to the IRS 6173 Letter

Today's news from the US IRS has been blamed for the recent price slump, yet the bitcoin fractal like the gold fractal suggest the market players have set bitcoin up for a slump to $9000 USD long before the IRS news hit the wire.

Get the impression some market players missed out on the b...

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Digital Currencies

New Zealand Becomes 1st Country To Legalize Payment Of Salaries In Crypto

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have been on a persistent upswing this year, but they're still pretty volatile. But during a time when even some of the most developed economies in the word are watching their currencies bounce around like the Argentine peso (just take a look at a six-month chart for GBPUSD), New Zealand has decided to take the plunge and become the first country to legalize payment in bitcoin, the FT reports.

The ruling by New Zealand’s tax authority allows salaries and wages to b...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Biotech

DNA testing companies offer telomere testing - but what does it tell you about aging and disease risk?

Reminder: We're is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA testing companies offer telomere testing – but what does it tell you about aging and disease risk?

A telomere age test kit from Telomere Diagnostics Inc. and saliva. collection kit from 23andMe. Anna Hoychuk/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Patricia Opresko, University of Pittsburgh and Elise Fouquerel, ...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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