Posts Tagged ‘banking system. losses’

We’re Speaking Japanese Without Knowing It

We’re Speaking Japanese Without Knowing It

Courtesy of John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
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Anna Karenina, stage production“Tolstoy famously begins his classic novel Anna Karenina with “Every happy family is alike, but every unhappy family is unhappy in their own way.” While each financial crisis no doubt is distinct, they also share striking similarities, in the run-up of asset prices, in debt accumulation, in growth patterns, and in current account deficits. The majority of historical crises are preceded by financial liberalization. Perhaps the United States will prove a different kind of happy family. Despite many superficial similarities to a typical crisis country, it may yet suffer a growth lapse comparable only to the mildest cases. Perhaps this time will be different as so many argue. Nevertheless, the quantitative and qualitative parallels in run-ups to earlier postwar industrialized-country financial crises are worthy of note. For the five most catastrophic cases (which include episodes in Finland, Japan, Norway, Spain and Sweden), the drop in annual output growth from peak to trough is over 5 percent, and growth remained well below pre-crisis trend even after three years. The United States looks like the archetypical crisis country, only more so.”

Reinhart C. and Rogoff K., NBER Working Paper 13761, January 2008
[As of the second quarter of 2009, the cumulative drop in GDP during the recent downturn has been -3.9%.]

If one seeks analysis about the recent financial crisis, and what most probably lies ahead, it would be wise to place particular weight on the views of economists who saw it coming (and ideally those who provided careful analysis rather than hyperbole). I’ve cited a paper by Reinhart and Rogoff above, which was published by the National Bureau of Economic Research in January of 2008. At a speech at the Princeton Club last week, economist Carmen Reinhart reiterated that by propping up unhealthy banks, the U.S. is unwittingly committing the same mistakes as the Japanese did in their decade-long stagnation, saying, “These are not zombie loans. They’re just non-performing. We’re speaking Japanese without knowing it.”

Kenneth Rogoff, a Harvard economist and former chief of the IMF, noted elsewhere “The banks have been allowed to take these huge gambles, particularly problematic is their very short-term borrowing. And they always have to roll it over all the time and any time they can’t…
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Phil's Favorites

When Trump pushed hydroxychloroquine to treat COVID-19, hundreds of thousands of prescriptions followed despite little evidence that it worked

 

When Trump pushed hydroxychloroquine to treat COVID-19, hundreds of thousands of prescriptions followed despite little evidence that it worked

As public figures and some in the media touted hydroxychloroquine, prescriptions skyrocketed. Grace Cary / Moment via Getty Images

Courtesy of Richard L. Kravitz, University of California, Davis

In late March and early April, ...



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Biotech/COVID-19

When Trump pushed hydroxychloroquine to treat COVID-19, hundreds of thousands of prescriptions followed despite little evidence that it worked

 

When Trump pushed hydroxychloroquine to treat COVID-19, hundreds of thousands of prescriptions followed despite little evidence that it worked

As public figures and some in the media touted hydroxychloroquine, prescriptions skyrocketed. Grace Cary / Moment via Getty Images

Courtesy of Richard L. Kravitz, University of California, Davis

In late March and early April, ...



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ValueWalk

Second Coronavirus stimulus: how it could affect student loans

By Aman Jain. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The second coronavirus stimulus is largely expected to come sometime later this month. The main talking points so far are stimulus checks and unemployment benefits. Though not much talked about, there is one more segment that lawmakers could focus on with the next coronavirus stimulus, and that is student loans.

Q2 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

How next coronavirus stimulus affects student loans?

The CARES Act, which was passed in ...



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Zero Hedge

Supreme Court Rules Trump Tax Returns Must Be Released To NY Grand Jury

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

The Supreme Court on Thursday ruled that a New York Grand Jury can have President Trump's tax records, after Manhattan prosecutor Cy Vance subpoenaed eight years of returns in connection with an investigation into hush money payments made to porn star Stormy Daniels, according to Axios.

The court has yet to rule on whether House Democrats can have access to the records, after the lawmakers issued subpoenas to Deutsche Bank, Capital One, and the president's longtime accounting fi...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Tech Experiencing A 20-Year Breakout, While Small Caps Are Near 20-Year Lows!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Successful investors are often rewarded by owning strength and avoiding weakness.

Could two key sectors be experiencing 20-year strength and weakness extremes at the same time? Yes!

The NDX 100/S&P ratio (left above) is currently experiencing a 20-year breakout at (1).

At the same time, the Russell 2000/S&P ratio is near 20-year lows at (2).

This 2-pack reflects that the place to be at this time continues to be Tech...



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The Technical Traders

Credit/Investments Turned Into End-User Risk Again

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Continuing our research from Part I, into what to expect in Q2 and Q3 of 2020, we’ll start by discussing our Adaptive Dynamic Learning predictive modeling system and our belief that the US stock market is rallied beyond proper expectation levels.  The Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) modeling systems attempts to identify price and technical indicator DNA markers and attempts to map our these...



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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.



Date Found: Saturday, 14 March 2020, 05:51:16 PM

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Comment: Crash in perspective - its Bad, and not over!



Date Found: Saturday, 14 March 2020, 07:49:29 PM

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Comment: The Blood Bath Has Begun youtu.be/bmC8k1qmM0s



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Lee's Free Thinking

These Charts Show COVID 19 Is Spreading in the US and Will Kill the Economy

 

These Charts Show COVID 19 Is Spreading in the US and Will Kill the Economy

Courtesy of  

The COVID 19 pandemic is, predictably, worsening again in much of the US. Only the Northeast, and to a lesser extent some Midwestern states, have been consistently improving. And that trend could also reverse as those states fully reopen.

The problem in the US seems to be widespread public resistance to recommended practices of social distancing and mask wearing. In countries where these practices have been practi...



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Digital Currencies

Blockchains can trace foods from farm to plate, but the industry is still behind the curve

 

Blockchains can trace foods from farm to plate, but the industry is still behind the curve

App-etising? LDprod

Courtesy of Michael Rogerson, University of Bath and Glenn Parry, University of Surrey

Food supply chains were vulnerable long before the coronavirus pandemic. Recent scandals have ranged from modern slavery ...



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Members' Corner

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

 

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

No matter the details of the plot, conspiracy theories follow common patterns of thought. Ranta Images/iStock/Getty Images Plus

Courtesy of John Cook, George Mason University; Sander van der Linden, University of Cambridge; Stephan Lewandowsky...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

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