Posts Tagged ‘Bearish Sentiment’

Bearish Sentiment Officially Reaching Fever Pitch

Bearish Sentiment Officially Reaching Fever Pitch

Courtesy of Joe Weisenthal at Business Insider 

sweaty biz man

Image: George Eastman via Flickr

Friday promises to be a huge day (at least in the early going) with both the Fed and the Q2 GDP revisions potentially giving investors more reasons to panic. The questions: is panic hitting peak levels?

Mike O’Rourke at BTIG argues that we must be close:

The German-built dirigible 'Hindenburg' (Zeppelin LZ 129) catches fire in the stern while trying to land at the Lakehurst Naval Air Station, New Jersey. People watch from below, standing on the mooring mast and on the ground. The ship was engulfed in flames and crashed in less than a minute. Thirty-six people were killed in the disaster.   (Photo by Hulton Archive/Getty Images)

The other interesting development today was on the sentiment front.  AAII Sentiment as we calculate it (Bulls/(Bulls + Bears)) was 29.54% in buy signal territory.  It is not as good as the reading registered last month, but good enough to rank it 4th best in the last two years following November 6, 2009’s reading of 28.57%, July 9, 2010’s 26.84% and the two decade low registered March 6, 2009 at 21.21%.  The Hindenburg Omen made it to the front of our Yahoo! News page. A six basis point increase in the quarterly report of the Mortgage Bankers Association’s 30 day delinquencies was covered in the media as if the second sub-prime crisis was again upon us.  Besides the fact that it was 6 basis points, it is coming primarily from failed modifications.  We get monthly snapshots from Lender Processing Services and Bloomberg so there are no shocking revelations in the MBA report, which overall exhibited improvements.  Meanwhile, positive stories seem to get missed, such as Moody’s asserting yesterday that credit card losses have peaked even if Unemployment rises to 10%.  In addition, Moody’s noted that “Falling charge-offs led to excess spread widening by 57 basis points to 10.44% in July, breaking the 10% level for the first time in the 20-plus year history of Moody’s Credit Card Index.”  This is the good type of spread widening.  It represents the profits banks make on a card program.

 There are only two things we feel like we are missing going into tomorrow’s GDP report: Volume and a 30+ reading on the Vix.  The ideal setup for tomorrow would come from the result of an ugly Q2 GDP revision tomorrow.  Every hour, a tenth of one percent comes off the market’s expectations of tomorrow’s revision.  It is hard to remember the last time the market was so enamored with a backward looking number.  We recognize a large downward revision will


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Bearish Sentiment At 22-Year Low

Bearish Sentiment At 22-Year Low

Courtesy of Adam Sharp’s Bearish News

The latest sentiment reading by Investors Intelligence shows a disturbing trend. Only 15.6% of financial newsletters are currently bearish on equities.

Last time the bearish indicator was this low was April 1987. A few months later (Black Monday) the DJIA dropped 21% in a single day:

In other words – when everything seems peachy — watch out. Turns out that peaks and troughs in investor sentiment are pretty good contra-indicators. Bullish sentiment tends to peak as bubbles are near their top, and vice versa.

From the revamped and newly Bloombergesque Business Week:

Bull standing on pile of coins, snorting

Pessimism about U.S. stocks among newsletter writers fell to the lowest level since April 1987, six months before the equity market crash known as Black Monday, following the biggest rally in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index in seven decades.

The proportion of bearish publications among about 140 tracked by Investors Intelligence fell to 15.6 percent yesterday from 16.7 percent a week earlier. Sentiment has improved since October 2008, when the financial crisis drove the figure to a 14-year high of 54.4 percent. After plunging 38 percent in 2008, the S&P 500 has risen 25 percent this year.

This is not to say markets wont’ run again in 2010. Irrational bull markets can last much longer than you’d think. The momentum they build up is impossible to fight. Gotta wait for that to break before getting seriously short. Example – After the bearish-sentiment index bottomed in 1987, the market rallied another 14% before crashing.

Smart investors like Bill Fleckenstein have been highlighting the credit bubble since the mid-1990’s. And today markets are more irrational than ever. Government intervention is preventing market cycles from proceeding like never before.

Industries like housing, banking, and commercial real estate have become completely dependent on government support. Their future (and that of our currency) depend on whether our leaders will extend or end this support. It’s a ludicrous, manipulated market.

So far America’s leaders have repeatedly demonstrated that they have zero tolerance for economic pain. Their support for the financial markets seems unlimited, no matter the long-term cost. I don’t see that changing without something drastic hapenning – another huge round of bailouts, a shift in the political landscape, or something…
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Resist the Temptation

 

Resist the Temptation

Courtesy of 

“You ever hear of Jumia?”

“No,” I said as I punched up the chart. “HOLY SHIT!”

“Crazy, right? It’s supposed to be the Amazon of Africa. I bought a few thousand shares three weeks ago in the 20s, and now it’s close to 50.”

This was a very real conversation I had on December 22nd with a family member. Take a look at this chart, and you’ll see why I responded the way I did.

 

I kept tab...



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Zero Hedge

Shortage Of Greenwich Homes Triggers Bidding War As New Yorkers Flock To Suburbs 

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

The exodus of city dwellers from New York City continued into late 2020 as homebuying in Greenwich surged, according to Bloomberg

A new report from appraiser Miller Samuel Inc. and Douglas Elliman Real Estate said 317 single-family homes were listed in the tiny town, located in southwestern Fairfield County, at the end of December. 

A shortage of Greenwich homes prompted a fierce bidding war among buyers who were willing to pay at least 14% above the seller's asking price, compared with 2.6% in 2019. 

...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Bitcoin Parabolic Rally Reversal Faces Big Support Test!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

One of the biggest breakouts of 2020 came by way of Bitcoin. And it was epic.

The coronavirus crash saw the cryptocurrency retest its 2018 lows before rocketing higher in parabolic fashion.

Did Bitcoin Peak? What’s Next?

Today we examine a “weekly” chart of Bitcoin, highlighting its parabolic rally… and recent reversal lower.

The rally in Bitcoin surged all the way to the 361% Fibonacci extension level at (1) before creating the largest bearish reversal in years.

In just a few weeks time, Bitcoin is testing its 261% Fibonacci level near 31,000 at (2). This is a big test of support for the cryptocurrency. A “weekl...



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ValueWalk

Hybrid Electric Vehicles: A Stay of Execution for NiMH Batteries

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Hybrid Electric Vehicles: A Stay of Execution for NiMH Batteries, Explores IDTechEx

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

NiMH Batteries Are Still Commonly Used

When we talk about battery-electric vehicles, the lithium-ion battery is dominant; however, for full hybrid electric vehicles (those that have electric-only modes but do not plug-in), NiMH batteries are still the most common battery on the road. With the growing market for hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), will this drive further demand for NiMH batteries and stop them from being eliminated from the automotive market?...



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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.



Date Found: Saturday, 11 July 2020, 05:26:16 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: This is lack of liquidity means support is likely to break if it is tested hard!



Date Found: Saturday, 11 July 2020, 09:51:58 PM

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Comment: Nasdaq losing momentum.



Da...

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Politics

What is the 'boogaloo' and who are the rioters who stormed the Capitol? 5 essential reads

 

What is the 'boogaloo' and who are the rioters who stormed the Capitol? 5 essential reads

Rioters mass on the U.S. Capitol steps on Jan. 6. Samuel Corum/Getty Images

Courtesy of Jeff Inglis, The Conversation

In the wake of the insurrection on Jan. 6, the U.S. is bracing for the possibility of additional violent demonstrations and potential riots at the U.S. Capitol and state capitol buildings around the nation. W...



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Biotech/COVID-19

The simple reason West Virginia leads the nation in vaccinating nursing home residents

 

The simple reason West Virginia leads the nation in vaccinating nursing home residents

By mid-January, only about a quarter of the COVID-19 vaccines distributed for U.S. nursing homes through the federal program had reached people’s arms. Paul Bersebach/MediaNews Group/Orange County Register via Getty Images

Courtesy of Tinglong Dai, Johns Hopkins University School of Nursing

The urgency of vaccinating nursing home residents is evident in the numbers. The COVID-19 pandemic has claimed the lives of mo...



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Mapping The Market

The Countries With The Most COVID-19 Cases

 

The Countries With The Most COVID-19 Cases

By Martin Armstrong, Statista, Jan 12, 2021

This regularly updated infographic keeps track of the countries with the most confirmed Covid-19 cases. The United States is still at the top of the list, with a total now exceeding the 22 million mark, according to Johns Hopkins University figures. The total global figure is now over 85 million, while there have been more than 1.9 million deaths.

You will find more infographics at ...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin: why the price has exploded - and where it goes from here

 

Bitcoin: why the price has exploded – and where it goes from here

B is for blast-off (but also bubble). 3DJustincase

Courtesy of Andrew Urquhart, University of Reading

Bitcoin achieved a remarkable rise in 2020 in spite of many things that would normally make investors wary, including US-China tensions, Brexit and, of course, an international pandemic. From a year-low on the daily charts of US$4,748 (£3,490) in the middle of March as pandemic fears took hold, bitcoin rose to ju...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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