Posts Tagged ‘bias’

Billionaire Ken Fisher Explains His Biases

Billionaire Ken Fisher Explains His Biases

Courtesy of Mish 

Ken Fisher says high levels of pessimism are a reason to buy stocks. Please consider Kenneth Fisher Recommends Stocks as Pessimism Surges.

Rising levels of investor pessimism are a reason to buy equities now, billionaire Kenneth Fisher said today.

“I’m never going to be bearish when people are pessimistic,” Fisher, who oversees $35 billion from Woodside, California, said in an interview on “Bloomberg Surveillance” with Tom Keene. “My bias when pessimism is high is to own equities.”

Explaining Ken Fisher’s Bias

Ken Fisher’s bias is to own stocks come hell or high water. Fisher’s recommendations have as much to do with optimism or pessimism as the planet Pluto does with an octopus.

Fisher makes money being perpetually bullish on equities. It certainly helps that Fisher peddles advice that people and pension funds want to hear.

It is amazing how much money one can make mismanaging money in conjunction with a remarkably successful advertising program.

Addendum

Flashback February 26, 2007
Housing Boom!

For months now the debate has been over whether America will have a hard landing or soft landing, the answer hinging on how big 2007′s housing disaster turns out to be. Well, there won’t be any housing disaster. We won’t have a landing at all, soft or hard. Right now the U.S. and global economies are both accelerating.

The consensus forecast is for single-digit S&P 500 earnings growth tied to a slowing economy. Disbelieve it. Experts’ forecasts have been too low for four years and will be now. First, the accelerating economy will deliver earnings that exceed expectations.

This is a time to own stocks. Here are some companies that will participate in the prosperous economy of 2007:

Home builder Pulte Homes – PHM
Toll Brothers – TOL
Beazer Homes – BZH

Absurdities

Look – Anyone can be wrong, but quite frankly that is absurdly wrong.

Pulte Homes was $34 then. It is $8 now.
Toll Brothers was $34 then. It is $16 now.
Beazer Homes was $44 then. It is $3.75 now.

Someone let me know if he ever issued a sell signal on those.

Regardless, Ken Fisher is consistently bullish. In fact he HAS to be bullish because you cannot manage $35 billion without being bullish. Ken Fisher’s advice is designed to do one thing – make money for Ken Fisher.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Photo from Psychology Today.


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You’re the worst thing that’s ever happened to me.

Let’s talk about relationships, you know, the statistical ones. 

You’re the worst thing that’s ever happened to me.

Hoping that our readers might enjoy a sneak preview of what we were working on, we decided to post our preliminary results on the Chrysler dealer data we crunched all weekend.

It will be a cold day in hell before we do that again, you can be sure.

The reaction was complicated by my typing "Why would there be an significant and highly positive correlation between dealer survival and Clinton donors?"

I didn’t mean "statistically significant," but that was all it took. A number of blogs fixated on this sentence and ignored the next two, "Granted, that P-Value (0.125) isn’t enough to reject the null hypothesis at 95% confidence intervals (our null hypothesis being that the effect is due to random chance), but a 12.5% chance of a Type I error in rejecting a null hypothesis (false rejection of a true hypothesis) is at least eyebrow raising. Most statistians would not call this a "find" as 95% confidence intervals are the gold standard for this sort of work." You can imagine the result.

As a measure of how partisan this issue is, both sides of the aisle had it out over sentence structure all day. We were severely chastised (in my case rightly so) and that was further complicated by my posting without explanation, the results of six regressions absent any narrative about our experimental design, our order of testing and the like. This subjected us to "data fishing" criticisms. (Probably warranted to some small degree- though some readers went so far to accuse us of outright fraud). What began as an attempt to give our readers some transparency devolved into a mess of sound bytes. The fault is entirely mine for expecting civil peer review or anything like it in such a forum. A mistake I shall not repeat with early findings again.

The slew of email I received ranged from "thanks" to "you are the spawn of the devil." The latter is the obviously closest to the truth, so we are sending that reader the Marla Singer Stolen Jeans prize. His name was Robert Paulson.

We planned to release the data publicly today, but we are having second thoughts about that particular plan.


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Kimble Charting Solutions

Doc Copper Suggesting Economic Growth Peaks Here?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

The broader commodities market is enjoying a multi-month rally that has seen momentum carry over into early 2021.

One area of commodities that’s seen a big lift is the metals space. We hear a lot about gold and silver, but how about copper?

One look at today’s chart and it’s clear that Doc Copper is on fire.

The long-term “monthly” chart highlights Copper’s multi-month thrust higher. It also shows Copper futures prices hitting a significant band of triple resistance this month. Line (1) has been tested several tim...



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Phil's Favorites

The Countries With The Most COVID-19 Cases

 

The Countries With The Most COVID-19 Cases

By Martin Armstrong, Statista, Jan 12, 2021

This regularly updated infographic keeps track of the countries with the most confirmed Covid-19 cases. The United States is still at the top of the list, with a total now exceeding the 22 million mark, according to Johns Hopkins University figures. The total global figure is now over 85 million, while there have been more than 1.9 million deaths.

You will find more infographics at ...



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Mapping The Market

The Countries With The Most COVID-19 Cases

 

The Countries With The Most COVID-19 Cases

By Martin Armstrong, Statista, Jan 12, 2021

This regularly updated infographic keeps track of the countries with the most confirmed Covid-19 cases. The United States is still at the top of the list, with a total now exceeding the 22 million mark, according to Johns Hopkins University figures. The total global figure is now over 85 million, while there have been more than 1.9 million deaths.

You will find more infographics at ...



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Biotech/COVID-19

The Countries With The Most COVID-19 Cases

 

The Countries With The Most COVID-19 Cases

By Martin Armstrong, Statista, Jan 12, 2021

This regularly updated infographic keeps track of the countries with the most confirmed Covid-19 cases. The United States is still at the top of the list, with a total now exceeding the 22 million mark, according to Johns Hopkins University figures. The total global figure is now over 85 million, while there have been more than 1.9 million deaths.

You will find more infographics at ...



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Zero Hedge

UC San Diego Installs COVID Test Kit Vending Machines 

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

With daily COVID-19 infections getting worse over the last couple of months in Southern California, one university has decided to introduce coronavirus testing vending machines, reported Reuters

Students at the University of California's San Diego campus were greeted with eleven vending machines over the winter semester packed with do-it-yourself COVID-19 tests. 

School officials told Reuters the vending machines are the first of their kind to be insta...



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Politics

The Confederate battle flag, which rioters flew inside the US Capitol, has long been a symbol of white insurrection

 

The Confederate battle flag, which rioters flew inside the US Capitol, has long been a symbol of white insurrection

A historic first: the Confederate battle flag inside the U.S. Capitol. Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images

Courtesy of Jordan Brasher, Columbus State University

Confederate soldiers never reached the Capitol during the Civil War. But the Confederate battle flag was flown by rioters in the U.S. Capitol building for the first time ever on Jan. 6.

The flag’s prominence in the Capitol riot comes a...



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ValueWalk

Can You Rid Yourself Of 2020's Financial Stress As We Head Into 2021?

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

2020 has been a tough year for nearly everyone, and that may be especially true for retirees and those nearing retirement who suddenly are worried about whether their careful planning and years of saving could be upended by events beyond their control.

Q3 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

After all, retirement is supposed to be a pleasurable and satisfying time when you kick back and enjoy the fruits of all those decades of labor. That’s difficult to do if you’re jittery about a volati...



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Chart School

Best Wyckoff Accumulation for 2020

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Yes folks there has to be a winner. Price and volume in the right place. Very nice eye candy!


Introduction ...

Ethereum was posted on RTT Wyckoff Campaign blog for monitory and trade entry. To watch the RTT Wyckoff Campaign blog is part of the RTT Plus service. After all you only need one to two great accumulations in a year and returns will be fantastic.






Charts in the video ...


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PnF ...

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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin: why the price has exploded - and where it goes from here

 

Bitcoin: why the price has exploded – and where it goes from here

B is for blast-off (but also bubble). 3DJustincase

Courtesy of Andrew Urquhart, University of Reading

Bitcoin achieved a remarkable rise in 2020 in spite of many things that would normally make investors wary, including US-China tensions, Brexit and, of course, an international pandemic. From a year-low on the daily charts of US$4,748 (£3,490) in the middle of March as pandemic fears took hold, bitcoin rose to ju...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

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Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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