Posts Tagged ‘Big Chart Review’

Monday Market Movement – The Big Chart Review

Well, we sure have come a long way in two weeks!

Here’s a great selection from our Chart School files that gives you a nice visual overview of the S&P from Larry at Ichimoku Charts:

 
As I mentioned in the weekly wrap-up, having come to the very top of our predicted trading range, we had no choice but to grit our teeth and go short into the weekend, ratcheting up our DIA coverage to balance the overall virtual portfolio bearish over the weekend.  There was nothing fundamental in the shift other than the overall fundamentals that WERE NOT being reflected in the (perhaps) overly exuberant rally of the past two weeks.
 
As I said in the post: "We have another heavy week of earnings ahead of us and we also have heavy data next week, including the Q2 GDP on Thursday.  We have New Home Sales on Monday, Consumer Confidence and Case-Shiller on Tuesday.  Wednesday is Durable Goods and the Beige Book all leading up to the GDP for April, May and June – which will be interesting to say the least.  It’s going to be both exciting and informative but I’m sure sleeping better knowing we are well-covered over the weekend!"
 
We did, in fact, have a nice, relaxing weekend as we were able to review our positions and discuss the pros and cons of the market.  John Mauldin wrote an excellent piece called "The Statistical Recovery" and points out that, as Tim Knight did in "Legends of the Fall," seemingly spectacular rises off a deep bottom are not necessarily "evidence" of a recovery.  In short – beware the dead cat bounce – something we had EXPECTED back on July 11th, when we first predicted this "rally."  Has the cat exceeded our expectations?   No, 9,100 was always our Dow target for this bounce – we just didn’t think we’d get there in just 10 days of trading! 
 
In that post at the bottom of the sell-off, I asked: "Is the current panic justified?  What’s really changed in the last 30 days?  Obviously, there were great attempts being made to push us up and over the top during the early part of June - the media pandering, the constant "stick saves," Cramer’s idiocy, Goldman Sach’s $85 oil call – all attempts to pull investor dollars off


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Monday Melt-Down, The Fallen (Big Chart Review)

What a disaster!

Once again we are in a market that environment that reminds me of the Simpsons episode where Homer jumps over a gorge, crashes, is taken up by a helicopter (Ben) smashing against the wall along the way only to fall all the way from the top again.  Pain, pain and more pain every time we try to get long.  Today we finished near 11-year lows on the Dow and S&P, so much for that decade of savings…. 

I said this morning that we had a "wall of worry" to climb this week and we didn't get very far up it before falling off a market cliff of our own.  Fortunately, as I mentioned in the morning, we went pretty bearish into Friday's close and I said at the end of the morning post "we’re certainly not going to be impressed by anything under 1.25% today."  It's very important to have a trading plan and we peaked out right at the open, well below our 1.25% target.  My opening comment at 9:36, despite the "rally" was:  "AAPL and the Qs not doing too well this morning.  Financials up 3% already, SKF below $180 .  We need a nice move in the Transports to shut up those Dow Theory people but this is a very weak morning move so far.  Dollar is strong and that’s keeping us down (stocks are a commodity) but weak is weak so, like I said, roll up the long puts when you can and no need to cover the other half with short puts until we pass 1.25% at least."

Nonetheless our F play went well as an agreement with the UAW was announced at 9:44 giving us a quick trip to $1.90 before pulling back to a 10% gain on the day.   We bottom fished a little on UNH and X but I said to members at 11:39: "Watch out if $7.40 breaks on XLF, that can drop us 5% fast in the financials.  Hopefully it will hold."  XLF finished the day down 3.5% but we ended up deciding it may be a little overdone.  We shorted FAS and that went well but then we tried to day-trade them to the upside and that led to two aborted attempts to go long as we were trying to catch a wave up that never came.  It was all over at…
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Kimble Charting Solutions

Treasury Bond Yields At Make-Or-Break Decision Point Says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Treasury bond yields (and interest rates) have been falling for so long now that investors have taken it for granted.

But bond yields have been rising for the past several months and perhaps investors should pay attention, especially as we grapple with questions about inflation and the broader economy (and prospects for recovery).

Today we ask Joe Friday to deliver us the facts! Below is a long-term “monthly” chart of the 30 Year US Treasury Bond Yield.

Counter-Trend Rally In Yields Facing Strong Resistance!

As you can see, treasury bond yields have spent much of the past 25 years trading in a falling channel… but the coronavirus crash sent yields...



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ValueWalk

Biden's $1.9 Trillion COVID Relief Proposal Met Expectations

By Gorilla Trades. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Commenting on Biden’s COVID relief proposal meeting expectations and today’s trading, Gorilla Trades strategist Ken Berman said:

Q3 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Biden's $1.9 Trillion COVID Relief Proposal

The major indices are all trading lower at midday as the combination of a batch of weak economic numbers, mixed earnings, and negative COVID headlines triggered a pullback in the leading sectors of the market. Pfizer (PFE, -0.7%) admitted that it will temporarily delay its vaccine shipments to Eu...



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Phil's Favorites

The Stock Market Is Broken as a Bellwether; Here's How to Fix It

Courtesy of Pam Martens

By Pam Martens: January 15, 2021 ~

I sat behind a trading terminal at two Wall Street firms from 1986 to 2006. I can assure you that if the President of the United States was refusing to accept the outcome of a presidential election and urging a coup d’é·tat by his civilian militia, the stock market would have sold off by double digits. This era’s stock market has yawned at the spectacle.

I can further assure you that if an actual, violent coup d’état did occur inside the ...



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Mapping The Market

The Countries With The Most COVID-19 Cases

 

The Countries With The Most COVID-19 Cases

By Martin Armstrong, Statista, Jan 12, 2021

This regularly updated infographic keeps track of the countries with the most confirmed Covid-19 cases. The United States is still at the top of the list, with a total now exceeding the 22 million mark, according to Johns Hopkins University figures. The total global figure is now over 85 million, while there have been more than 1.9 million deaths.

You will find more infographics at ...



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Biotech/COVID-19

The Countries With The Most COVID-19 Cases

 

The Countries With The Most COVID-19 Cases

By Martin Armstrong, Statista, Jan 12, 2021

This regularly updated infographic keeps track of the countries with the most confirmed Covid-19 cases. The United States is still at the top of the list, with a total now exceeding the 22 million mark, according to Johns Hopkins University figures. The total global figure is now over 85 million, while there have been more than 1.9 million deaths.

You will find more infographics at ...



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Zero Hedge

UC San Diego Installs COVID Test Kit Vending Machines 

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

With daily COVID-19 infections getting worse over the last couple of months in Southern California, one university has decided to introduce coronavirus testing vending machines, reported Reuters

Students at the University of California's San Diego campus were greeted with eleven vending machines over the winter semester packed with do-it-yourself COVID-19 tests. 

School officials told Reuters the vending machines are the first of their kind to be insta...



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Politics

The Confederate battle flag, which rioters flew inside the US Capitol, has long been a symbol of white insurrection

 

The Confederate battle flag, which rioters flew inside the US Capitol, has long been a symbol of white insurrection

A historic first: the Confederate battle flag inside the U.S. Capitol. Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images

Courtesy of Jordan Brasher, Columbus State University

Confederate soldiers never reached the Capitol during the Civil War. But the Confederate battle flag was flown by rioters in the U.S. Capitol building for the first time ever on Jan. 6.

The flag’s prominence in the Capitol riot comes a...



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Chart School

Best Wyckoff Accumulation for 2020

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Yes folks there has to be a winner. Price and volume in the right place. Very nice eye candy!


Introduction ...

Ethereum was posted on RTT Wyckoff Campaign blog for monitory and trade entry. To watch the RTT Wyckoff Campaign blog is part of the RTT Plus service. After all you only need one to two great accumulations in a year and returns will be fantastic.






Charts in the video ...


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PnF ...

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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin: why the price has exploded - and where it goes from here

 

Bitcoin: why the price has exploded – and where it goes from here

B is for blast-off (but also bubble). 3DJustincase

Courtesy of Andrew Urquhart, University of Reading

Bitcoin achieved a remarkable rise in 2020 in spite of many things that would normally make investors wary, including US-China tensions, Brexit and, of course, an international pandemic. From a year-low on the daily charts of US$4,748 (£3,490) in the middle of March as pandemic fears took hold, bitcoin rose to ju...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

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Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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