Posts Tagged ‘BIS’

BIS: WE HAVE FAILED TO LEARN FROM THE NORDIC CRISIS

BIS: WE HAVE FAILED TO LEARN FROM THE NORDIC CRISIS

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist 

The BIS recently released an excellent paper comparing the current crisis to the Nordic crisis.  This is a particularly interesting case study because the Nordic credit crisis was relatively clean for a credit crisis.  Perhaps most interesting is the fact that their crisis was unfolding at the same time as the Japanese crisis.  The results, however, were dramatically different.  I believe the thoughts from the BIS are particularly interesting as I was a proponent of the harsher Swedish Model - a bit more of an Austrian economics approach to the crisis as opposed to the Japanese model of trying to ensure capitalism without losers.  In recent months the USA is looking more and more Japanese and the BIS believes it is due to our flawed response:

“Our analysis indicates that current policies have followed those (Nordic) principles in some respects, but have fallen short in other, arguably more important, ones. If anything, the authorities have intervened even earlier than in the Nordic precedent. In the current episode, the down-leg of the financial cycle had not proceeded as far and banks were further away from the point of technical insolvency. However, the underlying weakness in balance sheets has not been recognised as fully. Efforts to write down assets and induce underlying adjustment in the sector have not been as extensive. Impaired assets have been kept on balance sheets at highly uncertain, and possibly inflated, values. The conditions attached to financial support have not been as strict with respect to asset and cost reductions; if anything, they have been designed with an eye to  sustaining lending. The need to reabsorb the sector’s excess capacity has taken a back seat. All this has tended to slow down resolution.

In other words, the zombie banks live on just as they have in Japan.  But perhaps most important is the fact that the losers have not been allowed to lose.  Government intervention has only kicked the can down the road.  The BIS detailed the successful principles involved in a swift crisis response and sustainable recovery:

Principle 1: Early recognition and intervention 
P1: The nature and size of the problems should be recognised early and intervention should follow quickly.

The purpose of early recognition and intervention is to avoid a hidden deterioration in conditions that could magnify the costs of the


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I Love 33:1 Leverage – BIS

I Love 33:1 Leverage – BIS

Courtesy of Karl Denninger at The Market Ticker 

Amusing news here out of BIS….

When it comes to the calibration, the Committee is proposing to test a minimum Tier 1 leverage ratio of 3% during the parallel run period.

Ah, now that’s nice.  How do we get that sort of leverage ratio being "allowed"?  I wonder if Germany’s banks might have something to do with that….

I’ve read the entire report; Bloomberg has a "sanitized" version is that is mostly ok in it’s interpretation – the key point being:

July 26 (Bloomberg) — The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision softened some of its proposed capital and liquidity rules …..

Right.

Someone needs to tell these clowns that both Lehman and Bear blew to the sky with leverage ratios around 30:1, and that their "proposal" allows more than double the former legal limit for investment banks in the US (before Hanky Panky Paulson got the SEC to remove the limit, of course.)

I suppose we need another global financial detonation before people start taking the words "leverage" and "reserves" seriously.  Heh, you all know my view on this: One Dollar of Capital.

But if you do that, you have banks that are clearing agents for the economy and utility providers of credit, with each dollar of risk they take being pre-funded by an equity or debt purchaser who stuck THEIR money into the pot, knew they could lose it, and will demand a REASONABLE return.

That is, banks would be stodgy businesses again that paid out most of what they earned in dividends, and that would typically be 5 or 7% a year – and that’s it. 

The common bankster’s salary would be a middle-class wage in the middle of America – a middling-five-figure number.

And the looting of the world’s commerce through finding some way to skim off a piece of each and every transaction, amounting in the totality of the marketplace to a colossal tax of well over a trillion dollars in the United States alone each and every year, would end.


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“Never Even a Whisper” at Fed’s Open Market Committee Meetings

Another excellent article by George Washington on regulatory capture and willful blindness displayed by the Fed on an ongoing basis.  - Ilene 

"Never Even a Whisper" at Fed’s Open Market Committee Meetings

May Day Demonstrations

Courtesy of George Washington

Washington’s Blog

Ben Bernanke, William Dudley and Donald L Kohn are on the Fed’s Open Market Committee (FOMC).

They are also on the board of directors of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) – often called the "central banks’ central bank". And Kohn is an alternate director for BIS.

Alan Greenspan, of course, was a BIS director for many years.

Dudley is also chairman of BIS’ Committee on Payment and Settlement Systems. (Tim Geithner – previously on the FOMC – previously held that post).

So there is clearly quite a bit of overlap between the two groups.

In addition, BIS’ chief economist – William White – and others within BIS – repeatedly warned the Federal Reserve and other central banks that they were setting the world economy up for a fall by blowing bubbles and then using "using gimmicks and palliatives" which "will only make things worse".

As Spiegel wrote last July:

White and his team of experts observed the real estate bubble developing in the United States. They criticized the increasingly impenetrable securitization business, vehemently pointed out the perils of risky loans and provided evidence of the lack of credibility of the rating agencies. In their view, the reason for the lack of restraint in the financial markets was that there was simply too much cheap money available on the market…

As far back as 2003, White implored central bankers to rethink their strategies, noting that instability in the financial markets had triggered inflation, the "villain" in the global economy…

In the restrained world of central bankers, it would have been difficult for White to express himself more clearly…

It was probably the biggest failure of the world’s central bankers since the founding of the BIS in 1930. They knew everything and did nothing. Their gigantic machinery of analysis kept spitting out new scenarios of doom, but they might as well have been transmitted directly into space…

In their report, the BIS experts derisively described the techniques of rating agencies like Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s as "relatively crude" and noted that "some caution is in


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Zero Hedge

How China Overtook The US As The World's Major Trading Partner

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

How China Overtook The US As The World's Major Trading Partner

Authored by Iman Ghosh via VisualCapitalist.com,

In 2018, trade accounted for 59% of global GDP, up nearly 1.5 times since 1980.

Over this timeframe, international trade has transformed significantly - not just in terms of volume and composition, but also in terms of the countries that the rest of the world leans on for their mos...



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The Technical Traders

The Wuhan Wipeout - Could It Happen?

Courtesy of Technical Traders

News is traveling fast about the Corona Virus that originated in Wuhan, China. Two new confirmed cases in the US, one in Europe and hundreds in China. As we learn more about thispotential pandemic outbreak, we are learning that China did very little to contain this problem from the start. Now, quarantining two cities and trying to control the potential
outbreak, may become a futile effort.

In most of Asia, the Chinese New Year is already in full swing.  Hong Kong, China, Singapore, Malaysia, India and a host of other countries are already starting to celebrate the 7 to 10 day long New Year.  Millions of people have already traveled hundreds of thousands of miles to visit family...



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Phil's Favorites

Elites View The World Through "Market-Colored" Glasses

Courtesy of Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com

It is easy to suggest the economy is booming when your net worth is in the hundreds of millions, if not billions, of dollars, or when your business, and your net worth, directly benefit from surging asset prices. This was the consensus from the annual gaggle of the ultra-rich, politicians, and media stars in Davos, Switzerland this past week.

As J.P. Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon told CNBC on Wednesday the stock market is in a “Goldilocks place.” 

Of course, it is when your bank receives an annual dividend from the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet expansion. This is...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Bad News For Crude Oil Should Come From This Pattern, Says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

It’s a good idea for investors to be aware of key indicators and inter-market relationships.

Perhaps it’s watching the US Dollar as an indicator for precious metals or emerging markets. Or watching interest rates for the economy. Experience, history, and relationships matter. And it’s good to simply add these to our tool-kit.

Today, we look at another relationship that has signaled numerous stock market tops and bottoms over the years, and especially the past several months, Crude Oil.

When crude oil tops or bottoms, it seems that ...



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Insider Scoop

5 Software-Application Stocks Moving In Thursday's After-Market Session

Courtesy of Benzinga

Gainers

Atlassian Corporation, Inc. (NASDAQ:TEAM) stock surged 9.7% to $145.50 during Thursday's after-market session. According to the most recent rating by Morgan Stanley, on January 13, the current rating is at Overweight.

Diebold Nixdorf, Inc. (NYSE:DBD) shares increased by 8.1% to $11.48. The most recent rating by DA Davidson, on December 13, is at Buy, with a price target of $17.00.

Telaria, Inc. (NYSE:TLRA) stock rose 4...



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Biotech

Snakes could be the original source of the new coronavirus outbreak in China

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Snakes could be the original source of the new coronavirus outbreak in China

Chinese cobra (Naja atra) with hood spread. Briston/Wikimedia, CC BY-SA

Haitao Guo, University of Pittsburgh; Guangxiang “George” Luo, Univers...



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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.



Date Found: Monday, 16 September 2019, 05:22:48 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: This chart says SP500 should go back to 2016 levels (overshoot will occur of course)



Date Found: Tuesday, 17 September 2019, 01:53:30 AM

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Comment: This would be HUGE...got gold!


...

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Members' Corner

The War on All Fact People

 

David Brin shares an excerpt from his new book on the relentless war against democracy and how we can fight back. You can also read the first, second and final chapters of Polemical Judo at David's blog Contrary Brin.

The War on All Fact People 

Excerpted from David Brin's new book, the beginning of chapter 5, Polemical Judo: Memes...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

 

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

Courtesy of  

The repo market problem isn’t the problem. It’s a sideshow, a diversion, and a joke. It’s a symptom of the problem.

Today, I got a note from Liquidity Trader subscriber David, a professional investor, and it got me to thinking. Here’s what David wrote:

Lee,

The ‘experts’ I hear from keep saying that once 300B more in reserves have ...



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Digital Currencies

Cryptos Have Surged Since Soleimani Death, Bitcoin Tops $8,000

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Bitcoin is up over 15% since the assassination of Iran General Soleimani...

Source: Bloomberg

...topping $8,000 for the first time since before Thanksgiving...

Source: Bloomberg

Testing its key 100-day moving-average for the first time since October...

...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

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Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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