Posts Tagged ‘BLUD’

M&A Monday – Goldman’s Golden Goose

Hope springs eternal at Goldman Sachs.

This morning our favorite Banksters goosed the EU markets by upping targets on international mining operators Kazakhmys, Lonmin and BHP and that got the European markets off to a flying start out of the gate, despite the fact that UBS had just DOWNgraded the same sector on Friday.  UBS said on Friday that the sector is facing difficult times concerning potential growth with government rulings on mineral leases and the proposed supertax on mining profits in Australia set to hinder metal-based stocks.

We also have a lot of M&A activity, also courtesy of GS, who are leading the resurgence this year with 225 deals to date worth $401.6Bn, accounting for about 20% of all activity going through Goldman's sticky fingers.  In a sign of the times, however, GS only generated $961M in revenues as an M&A advisor as they cut a lot of discounts in order to land the top spot in dealmaking.  Although outdealt by GS, MS, Rothchild, JPM and DB all made more in fees than the Uncle Lloyd show.

In a sign of the end of times, GS's London Headquarters has been taken over by lenders after the owner fell into receivership.  GS's landlord, Antedon, is an offshore real estate firm that bought the building for $500M at the top of the market in 2007 and GS has locked up the building through 2026 at what seems to be not enough money to keep Antedon liquid – it would be very interesting to trace the web of deals that led to this massive default.  

Meanwhile, the consortium of Irish investors that own GS's other London building are also bailing out, this action is coinciding with what Ireland's Independent says is a campaign by Wall Street Hedge Funds to short sell Irish Government Bonds.  US hedge funds Groveland Capital and Corrientes Advisors are thought to have taken major positions against Irish debt. Giant €60bn asset-manager Pictet also revealed that it had earlier bet against Irish government bonds. JP Morgan is also thought to have taken a bearish position on Irish debt.  The International Monetary Fund estimated that up to €3bn of Ireland's debt was being targeted by speculators through the uses of derivatives.

So,…
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Testy Tuesday Morning

Wow – what a lot of work to get back to last Tuesday's high! 

As usual, the vast majority of gains came in pre-market trading and the rest came in light-volume, early morning trading while the rest of the day was dominated by every buyer finding a willing seller for 75% of the day's volume.  We saw what happened on Thursday when someone big wants to sell and there are no buyers so we'll see how long the bull's luck (manufactured or otherwise) will hold out as we begin to get economic data along with some early earnings reports.

The Ag sector popped 2% yesterday ahead of tonight's earings from MOS with MON checking in tomorrow morning so we'll see how wise those last-minute bets were in short order.  SONC also has earnings tonight and we like those guys long-term.  SONC makes a decent buy/write candidate as you can buy the stock for $10.29 and sell June $10 puts and calls for $2.25 for a net entry of $8.04 with a very nice 24% profit if called away at $10 and an average entry of $9.02 (a 12% discount) if more stock is put to you below $10 in June. 

FDO and WOR also report tomorrow morning.  FDO will be interesting but a weak dollar probably hurt them last quarter.  Tomorrow night we hear from BBBY, BLUD, OHB and Sonic competitor RT, who seem a bit pricey at $7.50.  Thursday we get our first real builder, LEN along with STZ and TXI.  After the bell on Thursday we hear from APOL, CRI and SCHN with GBX and PSMT on Friday.  AA officially kicks of earnings season next Monday with GAP, INFY, KBH, BGG, SCHW, SHFL, INTC and JPM highlighting the reporters. 

We have plenty of data this week including Factory Orders and Pending Home Sales at 10 am along with December Auto Sales throughout the day (did you get a new car for Christmas?).  Tomorrow is jobs day, with the ADP Report and Challenger Job Cuts ahead of the bell followed by ISM Services (yesterday's ISM was a nice beat) and, of course, Crude Inventories at 10:30 which are unlikely to sustain $82 oil (USO Jan $40 puts for .80 are a good way to play this)We talked about the other stuff yesterday so I won't repeat it – suffice to say
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Monday Morning – 6 Unemployed People Per Job?

The number of unemployed people per job opening has climbed to 6:

27jobs-graf01

Six is a lot, as you can see from the above chart.  6 means that if you get a job, 5 people absolutely will NOT be able to get a job because you just took the last one.  Notice Job Openings are still falling and people without jobs are still rising – this is not a good combination, despite how great you hear things are getting on TV.   In the first 6 months of this year, there are half as many manufacturing jobs available, 17% less Government Jobs, 21% less Professional Jobs and 21% less Educational Jobs.

Call me old-fashioned but I still think you need people to work in order to have a strong economy.  If we have 10% unemployment (the "official" number) and only 1 in 6 people COULD get jobs if they filled every single available opening tomorrow.  That still leaves us with 8.5% unemployment.  We are miles and miles away from creating jobs and that is very scary.

68017.strip.sunday

As I predicted in the Weekend Wrap-Up, Merkel won her election in Germany and the new "Pro-Business" coalition is making investors happy but Germany has some silly rule about balancing their budget so it will be a long time before you see the massive tax cuts that investors are salivating over.  Also, one would think people would sober up and short the Euro if their plan is to start running the German printing presses in a US-styled Spendocracy but no action in the currency markets so far.    I wrote some extensive commentary on the German situation in Member Chat so I won't get into it again here. 

This weekend, I also posed the questions "Are Fundamentals Making a Comeback," or are we just resting before the next big push to 10,000?  We’ll be keeping a very close eye on our 5% rule levels next week, especially the retrace levels from the 20% run-ups since early July:

       


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Phil's Favorites

Ending the pandemic will take global access to COVID-19 treatment and vaccines - which means putting ethics before profits

 

Ending the pandemic will take global access to COVID-19 treatment and vaccines – which means putting ethics before profits

Indian health workers doing health checks in Mumbai, June 17, 2020. AP Photo/Rafiq Maqbool, File

Courtesy of Nicole Hassoun, Binghamton University, State University of New York

As COVID-19 surges in the United States and worldwide, even the richest and best insured Americans understand, possibly for the first time, what it’s like not to have the medicines ...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Ending the pandemic will take global access to COVID-19 treatment and vaccines - which means putting ethics before profits

 

Ending the pandemic will take global access to COVID-19 treatment and vaccines – which means putting ethics before profits

Indian health workers doing health checks in Mumbai, June 17, 2020. AP Photo/Rafiq Maqbool, File

Courtesy of Nicole Hassoun, Binghamton University, State University of New York

As COVID-19 surges in the United States and worldwide, even the richest and best insured Americans understand, possibly for the first time, what it’s like not to have the medicines ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Is the Nasdaq 100's Out-Performance Nearing a Top?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is the latest ramp higher and Large-cap tech stocks have been the clear market leader, out-performing the broad market for months.

In today’s chart, we look at the Nasdaq 100 to S&P 500 performance ratio in an effort to answer the question: Is the ramp higher in tech stocks and severe out-performance sustainable?

While we may not be able to answer that question today, the ratio IS at an inflection point. And following today’s ratio chart should help us answer that question.

As a reminder, the ratio rises when the Nasdaq 100 is out-performing the S&P 500. Note also that it is a longer-term “monthly” price chart.

Important Br...

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Zero Hedge

Homebuilder Optimism Explodes Higher As Mortgage Rates Plunge To Record Lows

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

US Homebuilders’ Confidence index soared higher in July (to 72 from 58 last month), back to March (pre-COVID) levels.

  • Measure of present single family sales rises to 79 vs 63 last month

  • Future single family sales gauge rises to 75 vs 68 last month

  • Prospective buyers traffic measure rises to 58 vs 43 last month

...

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ValueWalk

Whitney Tilson Is Bullish On Bank Stocks

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Whitney Tilson’s email to investors disucssing him being bullish on bank stocks; the bear case; Doug Kass with the bull case.

Q2 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Earnings Season For The Big Banks

1) It's earnings season for the big banks this week.

Citigroup (C), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), and Wells Fargo (WFC) reported this morning... Goldman Sachs (GS) is up tomorrow... and Bank of America (BAC) and Morgan Stanley (MS) round things out on Thursday.

The sector has been decimated this year. The Invesco KBW Bank Fund (KBWB) is down 35% year to date, vast...



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Digital Currencies

Bill Gates, Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, Bloomberg, Kanye, Apple Twitter Accounts All Hacked In "Nigerian" Bitcoin Scam, Over $100,000 Stolen In Minutes

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

The twitter accounts of two of the world's richest men, Bill Gates and Elon Musk (and perhaps others) were hacked late on Wednesday, in what appears to be a version of a "Nigerian" bitcoin scam.

At 440pm ET, Musk tweeted the following:

Microsoft founder Bill Gates had a similar tweet.

As did Jeff Bezos:

...



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The Technical Traders

Second Phase Real Estate Collapse Pending

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Real estate, especially commercial real estate, is likely to be the first segment of the real estate market to enter the second phase of an extended collapse.  The COVID-19 virus has created an atmosphere where continuing operations for retail, restaurants, and many other business segments is virtually impossible to maintain.  Without the ability to earn sufficient income, thousands of restaurants and other retail businesses have already closed or are in the process of closing.  This has pushed the commercial real estate market into turmoil.  We believe the residential real estate market will follow the commercial market because consumers are going to suffer as commercial real estate collapses....



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Chart School

Dow 2020 Crash Watch - Update

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Like 1929 the markets have bounced. This time it is on the back of the FED $6.5T money printing.

Previous Post: Dow 2020 Crash Watch 

But can the FED blow $6T every time the market rolls down to test support.

Yes, maybe before the US 2020 elections the FED will do 'what it takes'. But post elections not so much, the year 2021 is a long way from the next election (presidential or congress) and defense of the markets may not be so supportive at $6T or $10T per market smash. The FED may hesitate, and that will be window for stocks to break lower.

The 36 month simple moving a...

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Lee's Free Thinking

These Charts Show COVID 19 Is Spreading in the US and Will Kill the Economy

 

These Charts Show COVID 19 Is Spreading in the US and Will Kill the Economy

Courtesy of  

The COVID 19 pandemic is, predictably, worsening again in much of the US. Only the Northeast, and to a lesser extent some Midwestern states, have been consistently improving. And that trend could also reverse as those states fully reopen.

The problem in the US seems to be widespread public resistance to recommended practices of social distancing and mask wearing. In countries where these practices have been practi...



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Members' Corner

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

 

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

No matter the details of the plot, conspiracy theories follow common patterns of thought. Ranta Images/iStock/Getty Images Plus

Courtesy of John Cook, George Mason University; Sander van der Linden, University of Cambridge; Stephan Lewandowsky...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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