Posts Tagged ‘Bounce Levels’

Will We Hold It Wednesday – Strong Bounce Edition

What an amazing recovery!  

Just one week ago the World was coming to and end and now everyone has their rally caps back on.  Investors really are sheep – except I think sheep have better memories…  We're still right on plan of dropping 10% and then bouncing 4% (strong bounces) by Wednesday (today) that was initiated on October 6th by our friends at the Fed (see yesterday's post for the summary).  For those of you keeping score, our strong bounce predictions for today were:

  • Dow 16,466 (weak) and 16,632 (strong).
  • S&P 1,878 (weak) and 1,903 (strong).
  • Nasdaq 4,280 (weak) and 4,360 (strong).
  • NYSE 10,360 (weak) and 10,540 (strong).  
  • Russell 1,104 (weak) and 1,128 (strong).

INDU WEEKLYThe Dow is just 17 points away from our goal and we'll just need the NYSE and the Russell to confirm their bounce lines and THEN we can get bullish again.  Meanwhile, we actually got a bit more bearish in our Short-Term Portfolio (also in yesterday's post) as our Long-Term Portfolio popped right back to up 18.1% for the year so we wanted to lock those gains in with the STP, which finished the day up 81.8%, down from 92% in the morning as the markets rocketed.  

If the rally is real, the Dow should have no problem at all popping our 16,632 line – after all, it jumped 234 points yesterday but stopped dead right at our strong bounce line.  The…
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Will We Hold It Wednesday – Global Correction Edition

You call this a correction?

The Nasdaq is down 4%, Russell is down 5%, the Hang Seng is down 6% and the FTSE is down 3.6% but barely a pause from the rest of our Global Indexes.  The problem is, it's been so long since we had a proper pullback that people think a tiny little correction is the end of the World.  Even in the good old days, before high-frequency trading made a joke out of the market – investors didn't get too upset about a 5% pullback

That may be the problem as well.  The reason the market has marched off to record highs is BECAUSE investors have been led to believe that it's better than bonds, better than cash, even – to have your money in the stock market.  We certainly seem to have convinced a lot of Boards of Directors that the best thing to do with their company's money is to buy back their own stock or the stock of their competitors – no matter how ridiculous the price.  

$533Bn of hard-earned Corporate Profits were spent buying just the S&P 500, by the S&P 500, in the past 12 months alone.  That's 20% more than all of 2013 ($420Bn) and 30% over the 5-year average and that DOESN'T include M&A activity – also at a record pace.   While this has been going on, insiders have been SELLING their company stock at a record pace – Interesting…

So the company uses it's profits, not to invest in it's own future but to prop up it's own stock price – making earnings seem better because you are dividing the profits by a lower number of shares than there were last year.  This inflates the stock price and the insiders get out and that's when you buy – is that about right?  

What a friggin' scam - I can't believe you fell for that!  Seriously, that is such an obvious fraud that you would think people would run screaming away from equities.  The problem is, there's nowhere to run to, is there.  Your cash is being devalued, bonds don't keep up with inflation, real estate is still very…
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Phil's Favorites

"I'll buy on the next pullback"

 

“I’ll buy on the next pullback”

Courtesy of 

There are countless people out there who told themselves they were going to buy Bitcoin the next time they got the opportunity to do so at lower prices. I can’t prove this, but I’d bet good money that most of them aren’t doing what they said they were going to do.

If you were too scared to buy on the way up, you’re definitely going to be too scared to buy on the way down. 

It’s funny how people tell themselves, “I’ll buy on the next pullback,” without considering the news that drives prices lower will ...



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Digital Currencies

"I'll buy on the next pullback"

 

“I’ll buy on the next pullback”

Courtesy of 

There are countless people out there who told themselves they were going to buy Bitcoin the next time they got the opportunity to do so at lower prices. I can’t prove this, but I’d bet good money that most of them aren’t doing what they said they were going to do.

If you were too scared to buy on the way up, you’re definitely going to be too scared to buy on the way down. 

It’s funny how people tell themselves, “I’ll buy on the next pullback,” without considering the news that drives prices lower will ...



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Biotech/COVID-19

World's worst pandemic leaders: 5 presidents and prime ministers who badly mishandled COVID-19

 

World's worst pandemic leaders: 5 presidents and prime ministers who badly mishandled COVID-19

Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko visits a hospital for COVID-19 patients, unmasked, in Minsk on Nov. 27, 2020. Andrei Stasevich\TASS via Getty Images

By Sumit Ganguly, Indiana University; Dorothy Chin, University of California, Los Angeles; ...



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Zero Hedge

WTI Extends JCPOA Whipsaw Losses After Small Crude Build

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

A volatile in the energy complex as Iran nuke deal headlines (first optimism, then pessimism) sparked a dump-n-pump in crude prices (after Brent tagged $70 earlier in the day).

“I said that significant progress have been achieved, in my view,” Ulyanov said in the tweet.

“That is true. But unresolved issues still remain and the negotiators need more time and efforts to finalise an agreement on restoration of JCPOA.”

A return to the 2015 nuclear deal could allow for the remova...



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Politics

As the Palestinian minority takes to the streets, Israel is having its own Black Lives Matter moment

 

As the Palestinian minority takes to the streets, Israel is having its own Black Lives Matter moment

Israeli-arabs gesture and wave Palestinian flags at Israelis in a Jewish community building, during renewed riots in the city of Lod on May 11. Oren Ziv/picture alliance via Getty Images

Courtesy of James L. Gelvin, University of California, Los Angeles

The images and reports coming from Israel, Jerusale...



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Chart School

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Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.



Date Found: Sunday, 22 November 2020, 05:47:49 PM

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Comment: Bitcoin ambitions ...



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Comment: PMI juiced back up ...



Date Found: Sunday, 22 November 2020, 05:49:42 PM
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ValueWalk

Managing Investments As A Charity Or Nonprofit

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Maintaining financial viability is a constant challenge for charities and nonprofit organizations.

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The past year has underscored that challenge. The pandemic has not just affected investment returns – it’s also had serious implications for charitable activities and the ability to fundraise. For some organizations, it’s even raised doubts about whether they can continue to operate.

Finding ways to generate long-term, sustainable returns for ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Will Historic Selloff In Treasury Bonds Turn Into Opportunity?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Long-dated treasury bonds have been crushed over the past year, sending ETFs like TLT (20+ Year US Treasury Bond ETF) spiraling over 20%.

Improving economy? Inflation concerns? Perhaps a combination of both… interest rates have risen sharply and thus bond prices have fallen in historic fashion.

Today’s chart looks at $TLT over the past 20 years. As you can see, the recent decline has truly been historic. $TLT’s price has swung from historically overbought highs to oversold lows.

At present, the long-dated bond ETF ($TLT) is trading 7.8% below its 200-...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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Promotions

Phil's Stock World's Weekly Webinar - March 10, 2021

Don't miss our latest weekly webinar! 

Join us at PSW for LIVE Webinars every Wednesday afternoon at 1:00 PM EST.

Phil's Stock World's Weekly Webinar – March 10, 2021

 

Major Topics:

00:00:01 - EIA Petroleum Status Report
00:04:42 - Crude Oil WTI
00:12:52 - COVID-19 Update
00:22:08 - Bonds and Borrowed Funds | S&P 500
00:45:28 - COVID-19 Vaccination
00:48:32 - Trading Techniques
00:50:34 - PBR
00:50:43 - LYG
00:50:48 - More Trading Techniques
00:52:59 - Chinese Hacks Microsoft's E...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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