Posts Tagged ‘building permits’

Housing Data Split

Housing Data Split

Courtesy of Jake at Econompic Data

Bloomberg details:

Housing starts in the U.S. fell more than anticipated in December, while building permits unexpectedly jumped, signaling inclement weather may have kept builders away from worksites.

Work began on 557,000 houses at an annual rate, down 4 percent from November, figures from the Commerce Department showed today in Washington. Permits, a sign of future construction, climbed to the highest level in a year.

The government’s extension and expansion of a tax credit for first-time buyers may help underpin demand in the first half of 2010, giving builders reason to ramp up new projects. The gain in permits, which are less influenced by weather, indicates an unseasonably cold and wet December probably prevented some work from getting started last month, according to economists like Maury Harris.

housing
 
Source: Census

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Housing Starts Green Shoots Wither On Vine

Housing Starts Green Shoots Wither On Vine

Courtesy of Mish

Plant shoots

After optimists talked up rising housing starts for several months as green shoots, improving conditions, etc., reality came knocking in full force with the New Residential Construction Report For October 2009.

BUILDING PERMITS

Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 552,000. This is 4.0 percent below the revised September rate of 575,000 and is 24.3 percent below the October 2008 estimate of 729,000.

Single-family authorizations in October were at a rate of 451,000; this is 0.2 percent below the revised September figure of 452,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 85,000 in October.

HOUSING STARTS

Privately-owned housing starts in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 529,000. This is 10.6 percent below the revised September estimate of 592,000 and is 30.7 percent below the October 2008 rate of 763,000.

Single-family housing starts in October were at a rate of 476,000; this is 6.8 percent below the revised September figure of 511,000. The October rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 48,000.

HOUSING COMPLETIONS

Privately-owned housing completions in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 740,000. This is 1.9 percent above the revised September estimate of 726,000, but is 29.9 percent below the October 2008 rate of 1,055,000.

Single-family housing completions in October were at a rate of 528,000; this is 10.7 percent above the revised September figure of 477,000. The October rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 200,000.

Total Privately Owned Housing Starts

[click on chart to enlarge]

Looking at the chart it is hard to make a case for optimism in the first place.

Before the housing numbers release this was the Bloomberg headline

Builders Probably Broke Ground on Most U.S. Houses in 11 Months

Builders in October probably broke ground on U.S. houses at the fastest pace in 11 months, and consumer prices held below the Federal Reserve’s long-range goal, economists said reports today may show.

Housing starts rose 1.7 percent to an annual rate of 600,000, the most since November 2008, according to the median forecast of 77 economists in a Bloomberg News survey.

Government tax credits and lower prices and


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Phil's Favorites

Fighting historic wildfires amid bad ideas and no funding

 

Fighting historic wildfires amid bad ideas and no funding

A firefighter runs while trying to save a home near Lakeport, Calif. on July 31, 2018. AP Photo/Noah Berger, File

Courtesy of Edward Struzik, Queen's University, Ontario

Shortly after my book “Firestorm, How Wildfire Will Shape Our Future” was published in late 2017, I received a flurry of invitations to speak about the challenges of dealing with fires that are burning bigger, hotter, more often — and in increasingly unpredictable ways.

The invitations came from all over, from Los Angeles to Whiteh...



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Zero Hedge

Hedge Funds Piled Into Facebook Just Before The Crash: Full Q2 13-F Summary

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

It wasn't just David Einhorn who picked just the wrong time to dump most of his Apple stock: in the second quarter, some of the most iconic hedge funds like Duquesne’s Stanley Druckenmiller, Moore Capital Coatue Management and Jana Partners either bought or added to stakes in Facebook in the second quarter... just days before the company's biggest crash in history.

Other weres luckier, and the rich(est) got richer, as Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway boosted its stake in...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Junk Bond 12-month divergence matter this time?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Above compares the Pimco High Yield Fund (PHDAX) to the S&P 500 over the past 20-years.

Junk bonds diverged from the S&P 500 for nearly 24-months, prior to stocks peaking in 2000.

Junk bonds diverged from the S&P 500 for nearly 7-months, prior to stocks peaking in 2007.

Junk bonds have been diverging from the S&P 500 for the past 12-months. Will it be different this time?

At this time “It Doesn’t Matter Until It M...



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Insider Scoop

Morgan Stanley Incrementally Bullish On Salesforce, Says MuleSoft Deal Underappreciated

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related CRM 10 Biggest Price Target Changes For Tuesday Insider Buys Of The Week: AT&T, GE, Salesforce ...

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Chart School

Bitcoin Update - 6000 is support

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Demand shows it hand at support levels, well it obvious that $6000 BTCUSD is support so far.

More from RTT Tv , Ref: Brazil bitcoin currency , Brazil New Accounts
 


 

Main Chart in video



 

Sure fundamentals...



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ValueWalk

Hedge Funds Spending Close To $1M A Year On Alternative Data, But Show Me The Alpha

By Mark Melin. Originally published at ValueWalk.

It should come as no surprise to ValueWalk readers that alternative data has an obsolescence value that is negatively correlated to adoption rates. While we have noted data value dropping as usage and knowledge rise, a known concept in the hedge fund industry. What has been unknown until now is the levels to which fund managers must go to ensure the value of their alternative data does not get lost to the dulling mainstream consensus.

...

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Biotech

Here's what we know about CRISPR safety - and reports of 'genome vandalism'

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Here's what we know about CRISPR safety – and reports of 'genome vandalism'

A standee of the movie ‘Rampage’ at a theater in Bangkok, Thailand. Scientists in the film used CRISPR to create a monster. By Sarunyu L/shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Jianhua Luo, University of Pittsburgh

A movie just recently released called “Rampage” features Dwayne “The Rock” Jo...



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Digital Currencies

What is a blockchain token?

 

What is a blockchain token?

What’s this digital token good for, anyway? knipsdesign/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Stephen McKeon, University of Oregon

People are just becoming acquainted with the idea of digital money in the form of cryptocurrencies like bitcoin, where transactions are recorded on a secure distributed database called a blockchain. And now along comes a new concept: the blockchain-based token, which I’ve been following as a blockchain researcher a...



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Members' Corner

There Are 3 Main Theories That Explain Trump's Approach to Putin and Russia-Which One Makes the Most Sense?

What do you think?

Thom Hartmann suggests that the "Manchurian Candidate theory" is the least likely explanation for Trump's pro-Russia behavior in "There Are 3 Main Theories That Explain Trump’s Approach to Putin and Russia—Which One Makes the Most Sense?" (below).  disagrees and suggests that Putin probably has "the goods" on Trump in "Trump’s Plot Against America". (To be fair, Hartmann acknowledges that his three theories are not mutually exclusive.) Jonathan Chait argues ...



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Mapping The Market

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

Via Jean-Luc:

Famed investor reflecting on his mistakes:

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

One that stands out for me:

Instead of focusing on how value factors in general did in identifying attractive stocks, I rushed to proclaim price-to-sales the winner. That was, until it wasn’t. I guess there’s a reason for the proclamation “The king is dead, long live the king” when a monarchy changes hands. As we continued to update the book, price-to-sales was no longer the “best” single value factor, replaced by others, depending upon the time frames examined. I had also become a lot more sophisticated in my analysis—thanks to criticism of my earlier work—and realized that everything, including factors, moves in and out of favor, depending upon the market environment. I also realized...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

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Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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