Posts Tagged ‘bullishness’

AAII: BULLISH SENTIMENT HITS 6 YEAR HIGH

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

This morning’s AAII sentiment survey is consistent with just about every other sentiment reading of late – investors are wildly confident that stocks will be higher in the coming 6 months.  The optimism is almost near universal. The following chart tells the story of this bi-polar market.  On August 26th, just days before the market bottom, the bullish sentiment hit just 20.7% – no one thought stocks were set to rise.  Now, after a 20% rise in equities the consensus is uniformly positive.

Charles Rotblut of AAII elaborated on this morning’s results:

“Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, rose 13.1 percentage points to 63.3% in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. This is the highest level of optimism since November 18, 2004. This is also the 16th consecutive week that bullish sentiment has been above its historical average of 31%, the longest such streak since 2004.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will remain essentially flat, declined 2.3 percentage points to 20.3%. This is a six-week low for neutral sentiment and the 20th consecutive week that neutral sentiment has been below its historical average of 31%.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, fell 10.7 percentage points to 16.4%. This is the lowest level of pessimism since July 14, 2005. It is also the 11th time in the past 12 weeks that bearish sentiment has been below its historical average 30%.

The spread between bullish and bearish sentiment is currently at +46.9 points. This is the most positive bull-bear spread since April 15, 2004, when it reached +50.0 points. A wider differential was recorded on March 5, 2009, when the bull-bear spread fell to -51.4 points.

Bullish sentiment is more than two standard deviations from its historical mean, making it a statistical outlier. In simpler terms, bullish sentiment is running red hot. In fact, the current reading is the 18th highest since the survey started in 1987. Higher readings were recorded in 1987, 2000, 2001, 2003 and 2004. Such high levels of optimism have been correlated with a decline in the S&P 500 over the proceeding 24 weeks, though the magnitude of the declines have varied.  A spreadsheet showing all of the survey’s historical data is attached.”

Source: AAII 


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HAVE WE SEEN CAPITULATION?

HAVE WE SEEN CAPITULATION?

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

Napoleon I receiving the Capitulation of Ulm. Battle of Ulm, 16-19 October 1805. The outcome was a resounding French victory the capture of the entire Austrian army.

We’re not even close according to David Rosenberg:

“Short interest on the Nasdaq down 1.6% in the first week of August?

The Rasmussen investor confidence index at 80.4?  Call us when it hits 50, which in the past was a “classic” washout level.

Investors Intelligence did show the bull share declining further this past week, to 33.3% from 36.7%.  But the bear share barely budged and is still lower than the bull share at 31.2%.  Are we supposed to believe that at the market lows, there will still be more bulls than bears out there? Hardly.  At true lows, the bulls are hiding under table screaming “uncle!”.

Yes, Market Vane equity sentiment is down to 46, but in truth, this metric is usually in a 20-30% range when the market correction ends.  We are waiting patiently.

As for bonds, well, Market Vane sentiment is 73%. Now what is so bubbly about that.  Call us on extreme positive sentiment when this measure of excessive bullishness is closer to 90%, and we’ll be in the correction camp hopefully by the time this happens.”

I would tend to agree.  We have seen nothing in the fear gauges that convinces me that people believe in a sustained downturn in the economy. The cult of the equity investor has spent the last several months debating the possibility of a bubble in bonds, however, almost every single person who makes these claims is an owner of stocks and I have more and more trouble finding people these days who believe in bonds.  Yet, for some odd reason there is a never ending love affair with the equity portion of their portfolio.  Perhaps the bubble they should be more concerned about is the one that has been imploding underneath them over the course of the last 10 years. 


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STOCK MARKET OPTIMISM CONTINUES TO SURGE

STOCK MARKET OPTIMISM CONTINUES TO SURGE

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist 

Sentiment data is surging this week.   The Investor’s Intelligence poll is showing a new high in bullishness and a new low in bearishness.  18.9% of advisers tracked in the polling are bearish on stocks.  Bullishness has now surged to 51.1%.   Bullish sentiment is surging versus last week’s reading of 48.9%.

The latest Merrill Lynch Fund Manager Survey is showing similar optimism.   71% of the respondents  believe that earnings will jump 10% or more over the next 12 months.  This is up dramatically from 53% in March.  The survey also showed that 52% of managers are now overweight equities versus just 33% in February.  Michael Hartnett, Chief Equity Strategist at B of A Merrill Lynch says the Goldilocks scenario is priced into stocks:

“April’s survey shows a growing number of investors envisaging a Goldilocks scenario of above trend growth and benign inflation. The findings are consistent with the view that the US consumer, far from remaining in intensive care, is on the path back to good health.”

Today’s AAII poll showed the same trend in wild bullishness.  Bullish sentiment surged to 48.5%.  This is the highest bullish sentiment since the beginning of the year.  Charles Rotblut at AAII notes that the current skew between bulls and bears is consistent with periods prior to a pull-back, but not representing “irrational exuberance”:

“The spread between bullish and bearish sentiment is at +19. This is a level that has correlated with the past few market pullbacks, though is not a level that suggests irrational exuberance.”

aaii1 STOCK MARKET OPTIMISM CONTINUES TO SURGE

Source: AAII, Investorsintelligence.com 


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THE 2 BIGGEST RISKS TO THE BULL MARKET

THE 2 BIGGEST RISKS TO THE BULL MARKET

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

This is a re-post from an article we wrote for TheStreet.com:

The rally off the March 8th lows has been nothing but spectacular.   In hindsight, it’s clear that investors overreacted to the downside, but as stocks surge more than 50% it’s time to begin pondering whether the current rally is a bit ahead of itself.  Contrary to my bottom call on March 8th when I said it was time to invest in risky assets (a full history of my 2008/9 calls can be found here including our 2008 crash call and March 8 buy call), now is the time to put on your risk management cap on as a number of various threats begin to pop up across the market.    I recently turned near-term bearish on stocks due to 2 primary reasons: sentiment & seasonality.

1)  Sentiment – As I often say, psychology drives markets.  After months of skepticism regarding the rally we are finally beginning to see an overwhelming amount of bullishness.  This is a screaming contrarian indicator.  The latest consumer confidence readings showed a marked jump to 54.1 and bullish sentiment among fund managers has soared to its highest level since 2003:

The latest Merrill Lynch fund managers survey shows an extraordinary jump in optimistic sentiment.   The survey makes up the current psychology of 204 portfolio managers running over $550B in assets.  The report shows a 63% jump in sentiment since July and the highest reading since November of 2003.

After months of short squeezes and failed market declines this optimistic sentiment has begun to eat into one of the fuels of this rally: short sellers.  Recent short sales data shows the lowest readings since the market tanked in early February.  As we lose the short sellers we lose an important driver of higher prices.

BESPOKE THE 2 BIGGEST RISKS TO THE BULL MARKET

Perhaps most important has been the enormous shift in analyst estimates.  After turning bearish in early June, I reversed the position in early July for one reason – earnings.  My analysis led me to believe that estimates were far too low primarily due to the fact that analysts were not accounting for cost cuts.  The estimates have been outrageously low, but now as the consensus begins to believe in a full blown recovery the


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Zero Hedge

Atlanta Mayor Set To Reimpose Lockdown As Cases Surge, Defying Gov Kemp, Trump: Live Updates

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Summary:

  • Atlanta reportedly returning to lockdown mode
  • Texas sees another near-record day for new cases, hospitalizations
  • Georgia reopens convention center in Atlanta to treat COVID patients
  • US sees 799 new deaths, lower than yesterday
  • Phoenix mayor says hospital running out of morgue space
  • California positivity rate ticks higher
  • New Jersey rate of spread
  • Trump says Fauci "A nice man", but "he's made a lot of mistakes"
  • Dr. Fauci says 'divis...


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ValueWalk

Coronavirus stimulus checks: Wait could be over, suggests Mnuchin

By Aman Jain. Originally published at ValueWalk.

We have already seen President Donald Trump, as well as Senate Majority leader Mitch McConnell talking in favor of another round of stimulus checks this week. Now, on Thursday, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin suggested a second round of coronavirus stimulus checks could be part of the next stimulus package.

Q2 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Mnuchin backs second coronavirus stimulus checks

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Phil's Favorites

Actually, Mr Trump, it's stronger environmental regulation that makes economic winners

 

Actually, Mr Trump, it's stronger environmental regulation that makes economic winners

Courtesy of Ou Yang, University of Melbourne

Donald Trump has ordered US federal agencies to bypass environmental protection laws and fast-track pipeline, highway and other infrastructure projects. Signing the executive order last month, the US president declared regulatory delays would hinder “our economic recovery from the national emergency”.

Trump withdrew the US from the Paris Agreement for international climate action in 2017 for the same reason. The accord, ...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Coronavirus's painful side effect is deep budget cuts for state and local government services

 

Coronavirus's painful side effect is deep budget cuts for state and local government services

Washington state cut both merit raises and instituted furloughs as it faced a projected $8.8 billion budget deficit because of the coronavirus. Wolfgang Kaehler/LightRocket via Getty Images

Courtesy of Carla Flink, American University

Nationwide, state and local government leaders are warning of major budget cuts as a result of the pandemic. One state – ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Red Hot China Attempting Key Breakout, Says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

China ETF (FXI) has been “Red Hot” of late? Is it about to run out of steam or will it remain on fire going forward?

This chart of FXI comes from Investors Business Daily and Marketsmith.com. It reflects that FXI is above key long-term moving averages and its RS ratings is moving sharply higher of late.

Line (1) has been support and resistance several times over the past 3-years. The rally of late has FXI ...



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The Technical Traders

Retail Traders & Investors Squeezed to Buy High-Risk Assets Again

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Yes, we certainly live in interesting times.  This, the last segment of our multi-part article on the current Q2 and Q3 2020 US and global economic expectations, as well as current data points, referencing very real ongoing concerns, we urge you to continue using common sense to help protect your assets and families from what we believe will be a very volatile end to 2020.  If you missed the first two segments of this research article, please take a moment to review them before continuing.

On May 24th, 2020, we published this ...



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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.



Date Found: Saturday, 14 March 2020, 05:51:16 PM

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Comment: Crash in perspective - its Bad, and not over!



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Comment: The Blood Bath Has Begun youtu.be/bmC8k1qmM0s



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Lee's Free Thinking

These Charts Show COVID 19 Is Spreading in the US and Will Kill the Economy

 

These Charts Show COVID 19 Is Spreading in the US and Will Kill the Economy

Courtesy of  

The COVID 19 pandemic is, predictably, worsening again in much of the US. Only the Northeast, and to a lesser extent some Midwestern states, have been consistently improving. And that trend could also reverse as those states fully reopen.

The problem in the US seems to be widespread public resistance to recommended practices of social distancing and mask wearing. In countries where these practices have been practi...



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Digital Currencies

Blockchains can trace foods from farm to plate, but the industry is still behind the curve

 

Blockchains can trace foods from farm to plate, but the industry is still behind the curve

App-etising? LDprod

Courtesy of Michael Rogerson, University of Bath and Glenn Parry, University of Surrey

Food supply chains were vulnerable long before the coronavirus pandemic. Recent scandals have ranged from modern slavery ...



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Members' Corner

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

 

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

No matter the details of the plot, conspiracy theories follow common patterns of thought. Ranta Images/iStock/Getty Images Plus

Courtesy of John Cook, George Mason University; Sander van der Linden, University of Cambridge; Stephan Lewandowsky...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

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Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

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Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

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