by ilene - September 15th, 2010 8:36 pm
Courtesy of Mish
Inquiring minds are digging into details of the September Federal Reserve Empire State Manufacturing Survey for clues on the economy.
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that conditions held relatively steady in New York’s manufacturing sector in September. The general business conditions index remained positive, although it slipped 3 points to 4.1. The new orders and shipments indexes were both up moderately for the month, at levels signaling stable activity. The prices paid index was positive and little changed from last month, while the prices received index edged up to just above zero. Employment indexes were positive, suggesting that employment levels and the average workweek continued to expand over the month. The degree of optimism about the six-month outlook continued to deteriorate, with the future general business conditions index hitting its lowest level since early 2009.
Business Activity Flattens Out
The general business conditions index remained above zero in September, but inched down three points from August. At 4.1, the index suggests that business activity was little changed over the month. Almost 35 percent of respondents said that conditions had improved over the month—up from the 30 percent who had said so last month, but the percentage that reported worsening conditions increased from 22 percent in August to 31 percent.
Selected Empire State Charts
Current Business Conditions
Expectations Six Months Ahead
Divergences
Current conditions have stabilized while future expectations continue to deteriorate, five consecutive months. Did we just see a "last gasp" in new orders and shipments?
Stabilization?
More interesting yet is the way in which the current conditions index has "stabilized".
A tip of the hat to reader "Ronald" who writes…
In the ten years of data they have on their website, this is the first time I have seen the percentage of businesses showing increases and the number of businesses showing decreases in general activity both increased 2 months running. Moreover, this is the 3rd lowest level of businesses conditions staying at the same level. Finally, when businesses showing deteriorating conditions reached 30 percent, it has typically been during recession and the index has historically been between 0 and -10.
I don’t think this can continue and it looks to me like the number is going to break big up or down.
A quick check shows the…
Tags: business activity, Economy, Empire State Manufacturing
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by ilene - July 30th, 2010 5:09 pm
Courtesy of Mish
The BEA has finally admitted something anyone with a modicum of common sense already knew: The recession was far deeper and the "recovery" far weaker than previously reported.
Please consider BEA report Gross Domestic Product: Second Quarter 2010 (Advance Estimate) Revised Estimates: 2007 through First Quarter 2010
Real gross domestic product — the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States — increased at an annual rate of 2.4 percent in the second quarter of 2010, (that is, from the first quarter to the second quarter), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 3.7 percent.
The real story in the report was not the continuing ratcheting down of GDP forward estimates, but rather massive backward revisions, most of them negative, dating back three full years.
Revision Lowlights
- For 2006-2009, real GDP decreased at an average annual rate of 0.2 percent; in the previously published estimates, the growth rate of real GDP was 0.0 percent. From the fourth quarter of 2006 to the first quarter of 2010, real GDP increased at an average annual rate of 0.2 percent; in the previously published estimates, real GDP had increased at an average annual rate of 0.4 percent.
- For the revision period, the change in real GDP was revised down for all 3 years: 0.2 percentage point for 2007, 0.4 percentage point for 2008, and 0.2 percentage point for 2009.
- For the revision period, national income was revised down for all 3 years: 0.4 percent for 2007, 0.6 percent for 2008, and 0.4 percent for 2009.
- For the revision period, corporate profits was revised down for all 3 years: 2.0 percent for 2007, 7.2 percent for 2008, and 3.9 percent for 2009.
- For 2007, the largest contributors to the revision to real GDP growth were a downward revision to PCE, an upward revision to imports, and a downward revision to state and local government spending;
- The percent change from fourth quarter to fourth quarter in real GDP was revised down from 2.5 percent to 2.3 percent for 2007, was revised down from a decrease of 1.9 percent to a decrease of 2.8 percent for
…
Tags: business activity, collapsing credit, Consumer Metrics, consumers, David Rosenberg, deflation, Downward Revisions, Economy, GDP, Gross Domestic Product, inflation, inventory rebuilding, Mish, QE2, Recession, Recovery, slowing economy, the Federal Reserve
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by ilene - August 5th, 2009 4:25 pm
Courtesy of Jake’s Econompic Data
ISM details:
- What respondents are saying:"Economic activity continues to decline." (Transportation & Warehousing)
- "Continued soft sales, offset by improving profit margins." (Accommodation & Food Services)
- "Stimulus funds have increased business activity." (Public Administration)
- "Business downturn seems to be stabilizing somewhat." (Information)
- "There is still downward pressure on our products; however, our sales volume is stabilizing." (Mining)
- "The past month’s volume target and operating volumes were met. Rising concerns over the future form of healthcare reform and impact on provider organizations." (Health Care & Social Assistance)
- "Although attendance is up, business levels remain steady. More people, fewer dollars spent — an indication that discretionary spending is limited." (Arts, Entertainment & Recreation)
Source: ISM
Tags: business activity, discretionary spending, Economy, sales, services declining
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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Ilene is editor and affiliate program
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