Posts Tagged ‘BWA’

TGIF – Stop the Week, We Want to Get Off!

This week cannot end soon enough for the bulls.

While it's no shocker that we are finishing the week where we started and, in fact, finishing the options expiration period where we started last month (July 16th), it's still very disappointing that we are making no progress.  This weekend I asked if it was "Time for a New, New Deal?"  I went to DC over the weekend and I'll write about that this weekend but let's just say I'm not seeing the political will to actually do something major to put Americans back to work and, as I said last Friday, when I said "Hoping the Weekend Brings Perspective":

Weekend stance – off this disappointing two-day run I’d say as neutral as possible over the weekend.   I do think we need a good blow-off bottom now because we blew our chance to turn it around on volume yesterday. 

Trading Range – I was counting on QE2 AND a stimulus announcement by next week.  After the weekend we may have neither so it’s really going to be all about watching our levels in absence of any fundamental market forces.  Monday we have the NY Fed and NAHB Housing Index.  Tuesday is Housing Starts, Building Permits and a PPI that will also be BTE along with Industrial Prodcution (probable disappointment) and Cap Utilization (dragged down by refiners).  Thursday is Leading Economic Indicators and the Philly Fed and that’s it for the week so, once we get past housing, the newspaper is more likely to move the markets than the data points.

We got so-so Leading Indicators yesterday and a TERRIBLE Philly Fed, leading me to send out a 10:03 Alert to Members saying:

Whoa!  Philly Fed is disaster!  -7.7.  Leading indicators are up 0.1%, which is in-line but Philly was expected at +8 so this is TERRIBLE!  We should test yesterday’s lows at least on that.   

DIA $103 puts give good bang for the buck at .74 to stop the bleeding – just keep in mind thay have a ton of premium and need to be taken off quickly when momentum stops

While that play worked out very nicely, the bleeding I referred to was my 9:43 Alert to Members where I reiterated my "small gambles" on SSO, QLD, DDM and USO – but I did say…
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Hartford covered call writer strikes gold, albeit rather early in the game

Today’s tickers: HIG, ORCL, LDK, AXP, MS, JNPR, RIO & BWA

HIG – The Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. – The roof is on fire at HIG after shares sky-rocketed up by over 23.5% to $8.25. But, one investor appears to have jumped the gun today by initiating the sale of over 17,000 calls at the January 2011 7.5 strike price for a premium of 3.90 at which point the tinder was aflame, but the roaring blaze was yet to come. We believe the sale was part of a covered call in which the underlying shares were purchased simultaneously. The investor appears to have been selling volatility which was 130.3% at the 7.5 strike when shares were at $6.65. It is likely that he was happy with the 3.90 in premium coupled with the hope inherent in this trade of a 13% rally in shares to $7.50. The investor was likely thinking that if shares rose to meet the strike price, the underlying stock would likely get called away from him at expiration. However, in hindsight it seems the timing of his trade was poor as premiums have since soared to 5.20 and shares have exited the building (so to speak).

ORCL – Oracle Corporation – Shares of the software and services company have increased by roughly 3% to stand at $16.35. ORCL caught our attention due to a number of noteworthy options trades that played out today. A sold strangle was initiated in April by selling 7,500 puts at the 14 strike price for a premium of 50 cents, and by selling 7,500 calls at the April 18 strike for a premium of 53 cents each. The gross premium pocketed by this investor amounts to 1.03 on the trade. Thus, it appears that this trader does not see much by way of recovery for Oracle in the next couple of months, rather seeks experience maximum retention of the 1.03 premium if shares remain within the borders set by the April strikes selected. If shares were to swing outside the strikes, this investor would experience losses beginning at $12.97 on the downside and at $19.03 on the upside. Looking past April showers, a number of bulls were observed scooping up calls in June. Purchases were made at a number of strikes and settled as far up as the June 22 strike price, where 6,000 calls were bought for 15 cents…
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Phil's Favorites

Animal Spirits: The Richest 50%

 

Animal Spirits: The Richest 50%

Courtesy of 

Today’s Animal Spirits is presented by YCharts. Mention Animal Spirits to receive 20% off (*New YCharts users only).

On today’s Animal Spirits we discuss:

...



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Zero Hedge

China Injects Gargantuan 1.1 Trillion In Liquidity This Week

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Following what Bloomberg calculated was a record net reverse repo liquidity injection on Wednesday, when the PBOC injected a whopping 560 billion yuan of liquidity into the financial system via open market operations, the Chinese central bank has done it again and in Thursday's open market operation, it sold 250BN yuan in 7 Day repos (slightly below yesterday's record 350BN), and 150BN in 28 Day repos, which net of maturities resulted in a whopping net 380BN yuan ($56.2BN) liquidity injection.

...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

The "Average Stock" is Facing a Big Test Here!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

The Value Line Geometric Index tends to give investors a good idea of the health of the overall market. It is an equal-weighted index with a broad swath of stocks that gives investors an idea of how the “average stock” is performing.

The Value Line Geometric formed highs in the same area in 1998, 2007, and 2015 (see blue line). In the last two years, the index broke out above that line and held above it until the recent correction.

It is now testing the underside of that price area (now resistance). Bulls will get good news with a breakout ABOVE thi...



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Digital Currencies

Crypto-Bubble: Will Bitcoin Bottom In February Or Has It Already?

Courtesy of Michelle Jones via ValueWalk.com

The new year has been relatively good for the price of bitcoin after a spectacular collapse of the cryptocurrency bubble in 2018. It’s up notably since the middle of December and traded around the psychological level of $4,000... so is this a sign that the crypto market is about to recover?

Of course, it depends on who you ask, but one analyst discovered a pattern which might point to a bottom next month.

A year after the cryptocurrency bubble popped

CCN...



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ValueWalk

D.E. Shaw Investment Calls For Leadership Change At EQT

By ActivistInsight. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Elliott Management has offered to acquire QEP Resources for approximately $2.1 billion, contending the oil and gas explorer’s turnaround efforts have done little to lift the company’s share price. The company responded and said that a thorough review of the proposition is imperative in order to properly act in the best interests of shareholders, “taking into account the company’s other alternatives and current market conditions.” The news came only a month after Travelport Worldwide agreed to sell itself to Siris Capital Group and Elliott’s private equity arm Evergreen Coast Capital for $4.4 billion in cash and two months after Athenahealth was bought by Veritas and Evergreen for $5.7 bi...



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Insider Scoop

UBS Says Disney's Streaming Ambition Gives It A 'New Hope'

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related DIS Despite Some Risks, Analysts Still Expecting Double Digit Growth From Communications Services In Q4 ...

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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jan 13, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

In last week’s recap we asked:  “Has the Fed solved all the market’s problems in 1 speech?”

Thus far the market says yes!  As Guns n Roses preached – all we need is a little “patience”.  Four up days followed by a nominal down day Friday had the market following it’s normal pattern the past nearly 30 years – jumping whenever the Federal Reserve hints (or essentially says outright) it is here for the markets.   And in case you missed it the prior Friday, Chairman Powell came back out Thursday to reiterate the news – so…so… so… patient!

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reinforced that message Thursday during a discussion at the Economic Club of Washington where he said that the central bank will be “fle...



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Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn

 

Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's chaotic presidency based on his high-conflict personality, which was evident years ago. This post, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump even became president, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...



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Biotech

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Bacteriophage viruses infecting bacterial cells , Bacterial viruses. from www.shutterstock.com

Courtesy of John Bergeron, McGill University

Today, the scientific community is aghast at the prospect of gene editing to create “designer” humans. Gene editing may be of greater consequence than climate change, or even the consequences of unleashing the energy of the atom.

...

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Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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