Posts Tagged ‘CAKE’

Thrilling Thursday – Our Apple Trade of the Year Pays Off Early!

Go Apple!!! 

AAPL was our 2014 trade of the year, so we are thrilled with their Q1 earnings and expecting to see $600 on this run (I sent an Alert to our Members early this morning and you can see it on Twitter as well) detailing our strategy as well as discussing PSW's Rule #1 and it's practical implications.  In our first Webcast of the year, we picked AAPL as our top trade idea and again, on TV on March 6th, I was almost embarrassed to say AAPL was once again our trade of the year for BNN (it was last year's trade too).  

NDX WEEKLYThe fact was, there simply wasn't a more obvious way to make money tnan buying AAPL at just over $500.  When AAPL dipped to $480 in February, we PRESSED our long bets from January, rather than abandon them.  As I was saying, our 2013 trade of the year was also AAPL and I hate to seem like I don't have any other ideas but that options spread netted 550%, turning $2,800 into $15,400 in 2013 (the spread matured this year at 614% but we killed it early).  

Rolling that $15,400 into this year's trade has another 525% of upside potential (at AAPL $650), which would return $80,850 if AAPL is at $650 or better in Jan 2016.  So, starting with $2,400 in Jan 2013, we can parlay our bet to $78,450 in profits (3,268%) in just 36 months – not bad!

This stuff isn't hard folks, that was starting with just two contracts in 2013 and following our trade of the year.  In 2012, our trade of the year was BAC – which turned out to be the best-performing stock in the S&P that year.  In fact, on Jan 5th of 2012, I laid out my case for putting 100% of your portfolio into BAC and simply leaving it there for the year.  I was even crazy enough to go on TV on the 17th and say the same thing!   Lucky it worked out, really…

Of course, we don't only make picks once a year.  Just yesterday morning, in Member chat, Wobat said: "Did i miss the debrief on AAPL?
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Bearish Bets On Safeway Pay Off As Stock Tumbles After Earnings

 

Today’s tickers: SWY, CAKE & CSTR

SWY - Safeway, Inc. – Shares in the food and drug retailer are trading down sharply on Thursday, falling more than 18% to $23.14 during the first half of the session, after the company posted first-quarter revenue that missed analyst estimates. At least one trader who appears to have purchased front month put options on Safeway on Wednesday afternoon is benefitting from the double-digit percentage declines in the price of the underlying today. The largest increase in put open interest on SWY yesterday was the 4,566-lot jump in the number of open contracts at the May $26 strike. It looks like most of the $26 puts were purchased at a premium of $0.40 each. Traders long the contracts are benefitting from Safeway’s pain today, with premium on the $26 puts up more than six-fold at $2.55 apiece as of 11:55 a.m. in New York. Today, some options players appear to be nibbling at Safeway calls to position for the shares in Safeway to rebound somewhat in the near term. Traders picked up around 1,400 calls at the May $24 strike for an average premium of $0.94 apiece and may profit at expiration in the event that shares rally 7.8% over the current price of $23.14 to top the average breakeven point at $24.94.

CAKE - Cheesecake Factory, Inc. – Options traders who initiated bullish bets on Cheesecake Factory yesterday ahead of the restaurant operator’s first-quarter earnings release are enjoying sizable gains in the value of their positions today, with shares in the name up nearly 9.0% in the early going to touch an all-time high of $41.02. Trading traffic in the May $38 and $39 strike calls picked up speed yesterday just before 12:15 p.m. ET. It looks like one or more traders snapped up around 320 of the $38 strike calls at an average premium of $1.13 apiece, and roughly 400 of the $39 strike calls for an average premium of $0.77 each. The value of these contracts are up sharply,…
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Options Feeding Frenzy Ensues At The Cheesecake Factory

 

Today’s tickers: CAKE, LIZ & K

CAKE - Cheesecake Factory, Inc. – Traders are loading up on Cheesecake Factory call and put options today, perhaps ahead of the restaurant operator’s fourth-quarter earnings report next Tuesday. Shares in CAKE rose 1.6% to stand at $31.51 as of 12:55 p.m. in New York. March expiry calls garnered much of the attention from traders, with appetite for CAKE calls outpacing that of puts by around 1.4 to 1. The Mar. $34 strike calls are the most active as some 2,780 contracts changed hands against open interest of just 20 positions. It looks like the majority of the calls were purchased by one investor at a premium of $0.25 each. The strategist may profit at expiration in the event that Cheesecake Factory’s shares rally another 8.7% to surpass the effective breakeven point and new 52-week high of $34.25. The same investor may also be responsible for the purchase of call options at the Mar. $33 strike, where roughly 750 contracts traded for an average premium of $0.54 apiece. Time stamps for trades in the Mar. $33 and $34 strike calls exactly match those of transactions in the Mar. $29 strike puts. Nearly 950 of the $29 strike put options were purchased for an average premium of $0.55. The strategist snapping up both call and put options on the stock is prepared to see CAKE’s shares make big moves in either direction. The rise in demand for Cheesecake options has the overall reading of options implied volatility 31.5% on the day at 42.3% in early-afternoon trade.

LIZ - Liz Claiborne, Inc. – Shares in the owner of Juicy Couture, Kate Spade and other retail-based premium brands rallied to a fresh 52-week high of $10.38 today, extending year-to-date gains to 23.4%. A spate of…
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Demand For PepsiCo Options Bubbles Over As Shares Fizzle

Today’s tickers: PEP, CAKE, GNW & WAG

PEP - PepsiCo, Inc. – Options traders flocked to PepsiCo to initiate bearish stances on the global food, snack and beverage company today, with shares in the Purchase, NY-based Company sliding as much as 5.4% to a session low of $64.79. Shares in the world’s largest snack-food maker fell after the company said profit growth this year will be lower than previously estimated. PepsiCo reported second-quarter earnings of $1.21 a share ahead of the bell this morning, which met average analyst expectations for the quarter. The full-year revision from the company spurred seemingly outright bearish players to its options. Investors appear to be selling calls in the front month, as well as in the September contract, to pocket available premium in the expectation that shares are unlikely to recover in the near term. More than 4,700 now in-the-money calls changed hands at the August $65 strike against paltry previously existing open interest of just 398 contracts. Investors sold the bulk of the options to pocket an average premium of $1.18 a-pop. Call sellers keep the full amount of premium as long as PEP’s shares slip beneath $65.00 by expiration day next month. Bearish sentiment spread to the August $67.5 strike where another 2,000 calls sold for an average premium of $0.38 per contract. Traders also sold the majority of calls exchanged at the September $65 and $67.5 strikes today. PepsiCo put options are on the move, as well. Investors selling some 1,500 of the August $62.5 strike puts at an average premium of $0.30 each appear to expect shares to maintain above that level through August expiration. Implied volatility on PepsiCo is down 6.8% to stand at 13.88% post-earnings.

CAKE - The Cheesecake Factory, Inc. – Options trading patterns on the…
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Contrarian Strategist Eyes Owens-Illinois Call Options

Today’s tickers: OI, CAKE, XLK & HRB

OI - Owens-Illinois, Inc. – The world’s largest maker of glass bottles reduced its second-quarter profit margin forecast citing higher costs and weaker demand in Australia. The market’s reaction to the Ohio-based company’s revised estimates was swift, with shares in Owens-Illinois sliding ahead of the opening bell this morning. Shares are currently down 10.3% at $26.50 just after 11:30am on the East Coast. Despite the sharp pullback in OI’s shares today it seems the glass is still half-full for one optimistic player taking a medium-term bullish stance on the stock. The contrarian trader picked up 2,000 calls at the August $29 strike at a premium of $0.85 per contract. OI’s calls are available at a steep discount today with the August $29 strike calls trading at $0.85 today down from $1.75 apiece on Tuesday. The call buyer makes money if shares in Owens-Illinois surge 12.6% over the current price of $26.50 to surpass the effective breakeven point at $29.85 at expiration. Options implied volatility on the stock shot up 23.7% to arrive at 33.23% by 11:45am.

CAKE - The Cheesecake Factory, Inc. – Shares in the operator of casual full-service restaurants may be headed lower over the next four months according to investors initiating bearish options trades on the stock today. Cheesecake Factory’s shares are currently down 0.80% to stand at $30.54 as of 11:05am in New York. Traders employed debit put spreads in the October contract, buying 1,500 puts at the October $30 strike for an average premium of $2.20 each, and selling the same number of puts at the lower October $25 strike at an average premium of $0.62 a-pop. Bears hungry for a CAKE pullback paid an average net premium of $1.58 for the spread. Investors are poised to profit should…
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Weekend Reading – Reviewing the Reviews

 I am still trying to get more bullish

I was thinking about writing something cute like I resolve to get more bullish but that would be wrong.  I try, in my own humble way, to "get" the market right.  That means I am not bullish or bearish but Truthish (to further botch Stephen Colbert's use of the word) and, as Buddah says: "There are only two mistakes one can make along the road to truth; not going all the way, and not starting."  Confucious reminds us that there are three methods by which we may learn wisdom:  "First, by reflection, which is noblest; Second, by imitation, which is easiest; and third by experience, which is the bitterest."

In that spirit, we will spend the day in reflection so that we are better able to start on that long road to the truth so that we will be better able to imitate the things that will work in the year to come while trying to avoid making mistakes that will give us bitter experiences.  

This post is not about me – We had a fantastic year and I've already given some outlook for 2011 back on the 19th in that weekend's "It's Never too Early to Predict the Future" and our current position is short-term bearish in the Jan-April time-frame, looking for a pullback to at least 1,200 on the S&P and possibly back to 1,150.  

After that, we are expecting a return to steady gains but without the irrational exuberance we're currently experiencing.  So no, I am not bearish – I simply think we've gotten ahead of ourselves.  Since we don't know where the rally train will stop, we have our "Breakout Defense – 5,000% in 5 Trades or Less" from Dec 11th, which were a set of very bullish, highly levered plays where a little bet can pay off a lot if we simply hold our long-established breakout levels.   

How much is "a lot"?  Well my GE trade idea, for example, was to sell the 2013 $12.50 puts for $1.10 (net $1.15 in ordinary margin according to TOS) and to use that money to buy the 2012 $17.50/20 bull call spread for .95, which was a net .15 credit on a $2.50 spread
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Testy Tuesday – Topping or Popping?

 Looks like we picked the wrong week to short FCX! 

Copper hit a new all-time high in Shanghai this morning (as the guy who owns 90% of London's closed for the holiday exchange supplies sold it to himself for more money than he did yesterday) and gold is back at $1,400 in the futures and that should give us a better entry on FCX puts than we expected for round 2 but Paul Krugman has me worried now that maybe commodity prices are just high because the World hasn't got enough of them to go around.  Usually Paul and I agree but i think he may be discounting the effect of a 10% decline in the dollar a little too much – which is understandable as he is still arguing for more stimulus while I'm arguing that the way they are stimulating now is causing this problem and can not and should not be sustained.  

Still, we have to be pragmatic.  That's why, this weekend, I posted our "Secret Santa Inflation Hedges for 2011" as a follow-on to the "Breakout Defense – 5,000% in 5 Trades or Less" ideas of the 11th and, in the week between the two, we had bullish bets on  HMY, XLF, CAKE, TNA, IWM, CCJ, CHK, EXC, TNA, XLF, UNG, GLD, AAPL, GLW, TOT and AXP – which I had mentioned on the 19th in the weekend post "It's Never too Early to Predict the Future."  Just because I think there's going to be a disaster doesn't mean we can't go with the flow while we wait, right?  

We don't have to like the market to buy it above our breakout lines but we do need to keep in mind that this is a very thin rally that is very likely nothing but window dressing aimed at dragging money off the sidelines so the IBanks who have been propping up the markets can, once again, stick the retail shareholders with the bag as they load up on puts (watch the VIX to confirm) and crash the markets once again.  I've seen it happen in 1999, I saw it happen in 2008 and, both times, the rally lasted longer than seemed logical but the smart play was to hit and run – not to leave your money on the table but
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Weekend Reading – It’s Never Too Early to Predict the Future!

 Barron’s already has the 2011 Outlook on the Cover.  

outlook timelin

We were discussing the generally bullish in Member Chat and Barfinger said "So, Phil, what is your response to the bullish preview?"   That was a great question because it made me think.  Does he expect a "rebuttal"?  I can understand that as I’ve been fairly bearish but let’s not confuse caution (I called for a cash out when the Dow hit 11,200 in early November, it peaked at 11,444 on the 5th and closed Friday at 11,491) with bearishness – it’s just that my now 45 days of running around saying "the sky is falling" while it stays in place does make me seem like a perma-bear.  

The "October Overbought Eight" was my first bearish virtual portfolio since April 28th’s "Hedging for Disaster – 5 Plays that Make 500% if the Market Falls" (and it did, and they did).  THAT was a bearish outlook!  We are not that bearish here, otherwise it would have been the easiest thing in the World to re-up those plays for the new year.  We expect a correction, but hopefully not the kind we had between May 4th and July 2nd, where the Dow dropped 1,600 points in just over 2 months.  We are HOPING for a nice 20% pullback off the 15% gain from 9,800 to 11,270 back to the 11,000 line and holding that would make us very bullish going into next year.  

That would be 1,180 on the S&P (the declining 200 dma) and just 5% down from Friday’s close – THAT’s how bearish I am!  Where we are now is simply where the 5% Rule told us we’d be back on May 5th, where the chart pointed out that 1,240 is 20% off the upper, non-spike consolidation at 1,550 that marked the high for the S&P.  20% is the most powerful level in the 5% Rule and that’s why it’s been safer to wait and see how this line resolves than place long-term bets in either direction into the slow and volatile holidays.

Obviously, I am fairly convinced that Global "leaders" are making all sorts of policy mistakes handling the economy and I do believe it will all end in disaster but that does NOT mean I am market bearish.  

Think if it this way:  If you come across a
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Strangle Strategist Sees Range-Bound Shares at The Cheesecake Factory

Today’s tickers: CAKE, LVS, IYR, TEVA, EEM, S, CREE & EXPE

CAKE – The Cheesecake Factory, Inc. – One premium-hungry options strategist sold a strangle on the full-service dining restaurants operator this afternoon in the expectation that its shares are set to trade within a narrow range through October expiration. Cheesecake Factory’s shares fell 1.45% late in the session to trade at $25.38 by 3:35 pm ET. The investor sold 3,000 puts at the October $25 strike for premium of $1.05 apiece and sold 3,000 calls at the October $26 strike at a premium of $1.05 each in order to pocket gross premium of $2.10 per contract. Full retention of the premium received today occurs as long as shares of the underlying stock trade between $25.00 and $26.00 through October expiration. Wayward shifts in the price of CAKE’s shares could give this strangle-player a severe stomachache as losses start to build should shares rally above the upper breakeven price of $28.10, or if shares dip under the lower breakeven point at $22.90, ahead of expiration day in October.

LVS – Las Vegas Sands Corp. – Shares in casino resort operator Las Vegas Sands commenced the session in the red but rallied in afternoon trading to stand 1.05% higher on the day at $31.32 as of 3:45 pm ET. Earlier in the day shares increased as much as 1.5% to secure a new 52-week high of $31.46. One long-term bullish investor hoping to see continued appreciation in the price of the underlying stock established a covered call in the March 2011 contract. The trader sold 10,000 calls at the March 2011 $40 strike for premium of $1.73 per contract. The transaction had a delta of .30 and was tied to the purchase of LVS shares at $31.20 each. Premium received on the sale of the calls effectively reduces the price paid by the investor to get long the stock. The bullish player is poised to accumulate maximum potential gains of 35.7% on the run up in LVS shares from an effective purchase price of $29.47 to $40.00 if the calls land in-the-money at expiration and the underlying position is called away from the trader at that time.

IYR – iShares Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index ETF – The construction of a debit put spread on the IYR, an exchange-traded fund that corresponds to the Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index…
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Massive Ratio Call Spread Established on Citigroup, Inc.

Today’s tickers: C, NOK, XLF, ETFC, TXT, GE, JPM, JCG, AMR, PRU & CAKE

C – Citigroup, Inc. – A large-volume ratio call spread enacted on Citigroup during the first half of the trading session suggests one big player is positioning for continued share price appreciation through July expiration. Citigroup’s shares gained as much as 6.6% earlier in the session to reach an intraday high of $4.03, but are currently up a more modest 2.65% on the day at $3.88 as of 3:55 pm (ET). The bullish investor paid a net premium of $0.19 per contract to purchase roughly 66,000 calls at the July $4.0 strike, and sell about 132,000 calls at the higher July $5.0 strike price. The spread positions the trader to make money above the breakeven price of $4.19 through July expiration. Maximum potential profits of $0.81 per contract pad the investor’s wallet if Citi’s shares jump 28.9% over the current price of $3.88 to settle at $5.00 at expiration.

NOK – Nokia Corp. – Options traders populating Nokia Corp. today sold in- and out-of-the-money calls on the world’s largest maker of mobile phones with shares of the underlying stock trading 2.35% lower to $9.99 with 40 minutes remaining ahead of the closing bell. Finland-based Nokia retained its ranking as one of the two greenest major electronics makers at Greenpeace International along with Sony Ericsson Mobile Communications AB. Call sellers roamed across several expiries on the mobile phone maker, spreading pessimistic sentiment along the way. Near-term bears doubting Nokia’s shares will rebound any time soon shed 6,700 calls at the June $10 strike to take in an average premium of $0.50 per contract. Approximately 8,300 calls were sold at the July $10 strike price for an average premium of $0.70 apiece. Investors selling the contracts keep the premium received as long as Nokia’s shares trade below $10.00 through expiration in June/July. Uber-pessimistic traders shed 3,700 in-the-money call options at the October $9.0 strike to take in an average premium of $1.67 per contract. Nokia’s shares must fall another 9.90% from the current price of $9.99 to breach the $9.00-level. In-the-money call sellers keep the premium if Nokia’s share price does not exceed $9.00 at expiration. Finally, bearish investors sold 5,600 calls at the October $10 strike for an average premium of $1.10 each, 4,800 calls at the October $11 strike for an average premium of $0.64 a-pop,…
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ValueWalk

PPP changes pass House as small businesses hit first loan deadlines

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Small businesses need all these adjustments in the Paycheck Protection Flexibility Act, but there are still multiple gaps, including data collection

Q1 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

On the passage of the Paycheck Protection Flexibility Act in House today, Executive Director of the Main Street Alliance Amanda Ballantyne has this to say:

Paycheck Protection Flexibility Act Addresses PPP Flaws

“The Paycheck Protection Flexibility Act is ...



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Phil's Favorites

The PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Webinar - 05-27-2020

 

For LIVE access on Wednesday afternoons, join us here at Phil's Stock World!

 

Major Topics:

00:01:40 - Yang 4 Day Work Week
00:12:21 - DIS
00:19:01 - Bonds
00:25:49 - COVID-19 Update
00:41:12 - Trading Techniques
00:45:18 - US Corporate Taxes
00:52:27 - US National Debt
01:04:36 - Beige Book
01:09:25 - Hedge Funds
01:10:08 - States Reopening
01:14:16 - May Portfolio Review
01:14:52 - STP & LTP
01:26:38 - PAA & Strategy Section
01:29:44 - CSCO
01:34:04 - LTP
01:35:18 - VIAC

Phil's Weekly Trading Webinars provide a great opportunity to learn what we ...



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Biotech/COVID-19

How coronavirus contact tracing works in a state Dr. Fauci praised as a model to follow

 

How coronavirus contact tracing works in a state Dr. Fauci praised as a model to follow

Pairing widespread testing with fast, effective contact tracing is considered essential for controlling the coronavirus’s spread as the U.S. passes 100,000 deaths. AP Images/Rick Bowmer

Courtesy of Jenny Meredith, University of South Carolina

After weeks of keeping people home to “flatten the curve,” restrictions on U.S. businesses are loosening and the coronavirus pandemic response is moving ...



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Zero Hedge

Futures Tread Water In Calm Before US-China Storm, Trump Twitter Crackdown

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

The S&P's remarkable stretch of posting gains in the overnight session continued for another day, with the S&P rising as high as 3,053, and last trading 9 points higher at 3,044, tracking global stocks higher, with Europe's Stoxx 600 rising 1.3% to session highs as investors weighed again increased friction between America and China and the official passage of China's National Security Law in defiance of Trump, against fresh fiscal stimulus promised by the European Union. Treasuries edged up, while the dollar was modestly lower even as traders "treaded water...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Tech Indicator Suggesting A Historic Top Could Be Forming?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Tech stocks have been the clear leader of the stock market recovery rally, this year and since the lows back in 2007!

But within the ranks of leadership, and an important ratio may be sending a caution message to investors.

In today’s chart, we look at the ratio of large-cap tech stocks (the Nasdaq 100 Index) to the broader tech market (the Nasdaq Composite) on a “monthly” basis.

The large-cap concentrated Nasdaq 100 (only 100 stocks) has been the clear leader for several years versus the ...



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The Technical Traders

M2 Velocity Collapses - Could A Bottom In Capital Velocity Be Setting Up?

Courtesy of Technical Traders

M2 Velocity is the measurement of capital circulating within the economy.  The faster capital circulates within the economy, the more that capital is being deployed within the economy to create output and opportunities for economic growth.  When M2 Velocity contracts, capital is being deployed in investments or assets that prevent that capital from further circulation within the economy – thus preventing further output and opportunity growth features.

The decline in M2 Velocity over the past 10+ years has been dramatic and consistent with the dramatic new zero US Federal Reserve interest rates initiated since just after the 2008 credit crisis market colla...



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Lee's Free Thinking

US Southern States COVID19 Cases - Let's Give Credit Where Due

 

US Southern States COVID19 Cases – Let’s Give Credit Where Due

Courtesy of  

The number of new COVID 19 cases has been falling in the Northeast, but the South is not having the same experience. The number of new cases per day in each Southern state has been rangebound for the past month.

And that’s assuming that the numbers haven’t been manipulated. We know that in Georgia’s case at least, they have been. And there are suspicions about Florida as well, as the State now engages in a smear campaign against the fired employee who built its much praised COVID19 database and dashboar...



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Chart School

Is this your local response to COVID 19

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

This is off topic, but a bit of fun!


This is the standard reaction from the control freaks.








This is the song for post lock down!







What should be made mandatory? Vaccines, hell NO! This should be mandatory: Every one taking their tops off in the sun, they do in Africa!

Guess which family gets more Vitamin D and eats less sugary carbs, TV Show



...



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Digital Currencies

Blockchains can trace foods from farm to plate, but the industry is still behind the curve

 

Blockchains can trace foods from farm to plate, but the industry is still behind the curve

App-etising? LDprod

Courtesy of Michael Rogerson, University of Bath and Glenn Parry, University of Surrey

Food supply chains were vulnerable long before the coronavirus pandemic. Recent scandals have ranged from modern slavery ...



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Members' Corner

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

 

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

No matter the details of the plot, conspiracy theories follow common patterns of thought. Ranta Images/iStock/Getty Images Plus

Courtesy of John Cook, George Mason University; Sander van der Linden, University of Cambridge; Stephan Lewandowsky...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

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TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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