Posts Tagged ‘car sales’

GM Auto Sales Rise 17% – Not as Impressive as it Sounds

GM Auto Sales Rise 17% – Not as Impressive as it Sounds

Courtesy of Mish 

V-Shaped recovery proponents are crowing about auto-sales as GM U.S. Sales Rise 17%, Topping Analysts’ Estimates.

General Motors Co. posted a 17 percent increase in May U.S. sales, the first time the automaker topped analysts’ forecasts since January, as customers snapped up Chevrolet Equinox sport utility vehicles and Malibu sedans.

Deliveries rose to 223,822 from 191,875 a year earlier, the Detroit-based automaker said today in statement. GM was expected to report a 5.9 percent increase, the average estimate of five analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Industrywide sales may match the longest streak of gains in a decade, analysts estimated.

Total sales of Chevrolet vehicles gained 31 percent from a year earlier to 167,235 vehicles, and GMC brand deliveries increased 26 percent to 30,160.

Industrywide sales may have risen to an annualized rate of 11.2 million cars and light trucks for May, the average estimate of eight analysts. That would mark the eighth straight month of year-over-year gains, according to Bloomberg data.

The report speculated that Toyota sales may have risen 7.5%, Honda 22%, Nissan 11%, and Ford 16%.

Before everyone brings out the high-fives celebrating a miraculous recovery, let’s put this rebound in perspective.

Light Vehicle Sales Autos and Trucks

Note the cash for clunkers spike at the end of the last recession bars.

The industry had impressive gains percentagewise, but sales are at early 1980′s levels. This is hardly a V-Shaped recovery.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock


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A Positive Trend In July Car Sales

A Positive Trend In July Car Sales

Courtesy of Tom Lindmark at But Then What

car sales in july

Here is the meat of the car sales numbers. The seasonally adjusted annualized rate of sales stood at 11 million for the month of July, up significantly from the sub 10 million mark in June.

The major manufacturers that have reported so far show the following year-over-year results:

Ford                                      +2.4%

GM                                        -19.4%

Honda                                   -17.3%

Toyota                                  -11.4%

Chrysler                                -9.4%

Hyundai                                +11.9%

“Cash for clunkers” is given most of the credit for the better numbers with the usual caveat that it merely accelerated sales from later in the year. I think there’s a lot of truth to that but I also think that some of the growth in sales is probably real. The fleet is getting old and turnover is going to occur with or without C4C.

Still at an 11 million annual run rate, the industry is far from healthy.

more: here

And some additional thoughts, by Tom Lindmark

Could “Cash For Clunkers” Lead To The Feared Double Dip?

Could “Cash for Clunkers” be a net political negative for Obama? One analyst thinks that by moving forward sales via the program we’re setting ourselves up for a robust third quarter GDP number and a negative growth rate for the fourth quarter. The dreaded W or double dip recovery.

The Wall Street Journal’s Real Time Economics blog has the rationale on Douglas Lee’s theory:

His math: Auto sales were running at 750,000 to 850,000 units per month, and the


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Doubts On China’s Trade Numbers

Doubts On China’s Trade Numbers

Courtesy of Tom Lindmark at But Then What?

This is a follow-up to a brief post that I put up yesterday regarding China’s May export and import data. I pretty much just reported the data, one of the key components being that exports were down 26.4% year-over-year and imports shrank 25.2% for the same period.

A couple bloggers picked up on a point that I hadn’t focused on and it deserves some mention. Specifically the fact that China’s capital spending was up 38.7% in May and is up 32.9% for the year doesn’t square with a decline in imports.

Here are Brad Setser’s thoughts:

Investment booms fueled by a surge in domestic lending usually lead to import booms. That was the case with the Asian tigers in the 1990s, the US at the peak of its dot home bubble and the real estate boom in the oil exporters just prior to the crisis. It was also the case in 2003, when a surge in bank lending triggered a surge in investment in China (just as Chinese exports were also surging). But it isn’t the case, at least so far, in China today.

Setser then goes on to analyze a number of charts on exports and imports but in the end seems to give up. The best he can come up with is that it is a puzzle.

Yves Smith at Naked Capitalism has been as much a China numbers skeptic as I. She has also cited declining numbers on electricity usage as being irreconcilable with the claims of relatively strong GDP growth. Today she points out some disparities in the dramatic car sale reports:

Separate but related is that some of the cheery data coming out of China does not bear close scrutiny. Yesterday, Bloomberg noted that car sales in China spiked. Today we learn that the definition of a “sale” is a shipment from the factory, whether the car has a buyer or not. And the number of registrations, a much better measure of end purchases, is much lower that the supposed sales figures.

Any further insights are most welcome.

 


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Phil's Favorites

Omicron and market sell-off: don't be surprised if there's more turbulence to come

 

Omicron and market sell-off: don’t be surprised if there’s more turbulence to come

shutterstock.

Courtesy of Arturo Bris, International Institute for Management Development (IMD)

Until the Omicron variant hit the headlines, the signs were that 2021 was going to close with a stellar stock-market performance. Most markets have been on the rise since the beginning of the year, with the S&P500 up about 25% and the FTSE All Share index up by about 10%.

There had ...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Omicron and market sell-off: don't be surprised if there's more turbulence to come

 

Omicron and market sell-off: don’t be surprised if there’s more turbulence to come

shutterstock.

Courtesy of Arturo Bris, International Institute for Management Development (IMD)

Until the Omicron variant hit the headlines, the signs were that 2021 was going to close with a stellar stock-market performance. Most markets have been on the rise since the beginning of the year, with the S&P500 up about 25% and the FTSE All Share index up by about 10%.

There had ...



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Zero Hedge

Goldman Partners With Amazon To Launch New Cloud Computing Platform

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Goldman Sachs and Amazon are launching their most ambitious collaboration yet:  a new cloud computing service geared toward Wall Street firms to help them with high-frequency trading and other practices.

And all these firms need to do is agree to entrust their entire back-end IT setup to the Vampire Squid to access what Amazon is touting as one of the fastest and most useful back-end systems available to Wall Street firms looking to transition on to the cloud.

...



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Politics

The first Thanksgiving is a key chapter in America's origin story - but what happened in Virginia four months later mattered much more

 

The first Thanksgiving is a key chapter in America’s origin story – but what happened in Virginia four months later mattered much more

In the 19th century, there was a campaign to link the Thanksgiving holiday to the Pilgrims. Bettman/Getty Images

Courtesy of Peter C. Mancall, USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences

This year marks the 400th anniversary of the first Thanksgiving in New England. Remembered and retold as an allegory for perseverance and cooper...



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Chart School

Gold and Silver still working higher

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Using Gann Angles from zero we can time the next run up, and it is near.

The last two days gold and silver are down on the back of central bankers talking the US Dollar higher in a attempt to off set inflation. A rising dollar is a form of tightening. Also the talk of a faster 'taper' has sent interest rates higher. But Luke Gromen knows this cant not last.

@LukeGromen Externally-financed twin deficit nations with insufficient external financing (ie the US, not Japan) cannot abide rising real rates for long.


RTT Comments: What this means a higher US Dollar makes it harder for those outside the US to buy the vast quantity of US Treasuries. 


U...

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Digital Currencies

Stablecoins: these cryptocurrencies threaten the financial system, but no one is getting to grips with them

 

Stablecoins: these cryptocurrencies threaten the financial system, but no one is getting to grips with them

Safe as houses? iQoncept

Courtesy of Jean-Philippe Serbera, Sheffield Hallam University

Cryptocurrencies have had an exceptional year, reaching a combined value of more than US$3 trillion (£2.2 trillion) for the first time in November. The market seems to have benefited from the public having tim...



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Promotions

Phil's Interview on Options Trading with TD Bank

TD Bank's host Bryan Rogers interviewed Phil on June 10 as part of TD's Options Education Month. If you missed the program, be sure to watch the video below. It should be required viewing for anyone trading or thinking about trading using options. 

Watch here:

TD's webinar with Phil (link) or right here at PSW

Screenshots of TD's slides illustrating Phil's examples:

 

 

&n...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Crude Oil Cleared For Blast Off On This Dual Breakout?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is Crude Oil about to blast off and hit much higher prices? It might be worth being aware of what could be taking place this month in this important commodity!

Crude Oil has created lower highs over the past 13-years, since peaking back in 2008, along line (1).

It created a “Double Top at (2), then it proceeded to decline more than 60% in four months.

The countertrend rally in Crude Oil has it attempting to break above its 13-year falling resistance as well as its double top at (3).

A successful breakout at (3) would suggest Crude Oil is about to mo...



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ValueWalk

Managing Investments As A Charity Or Nonprofit

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Maintaining financial viability is a constant challenge for charities and nonprofit organizations.

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The past year has underscored that challenge. The pandemic has not just affected investment returns – it’s also had serious implications for charitable activities and the ability to fundraise. For some organizations, it’s even raised doubts about whether they can continue to operate.

Finding ways to generate long-term, sustainable returns for ...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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