Posts Tagged ‘car sales’

GM Auto Sales Rise 17% – Not as Impressive as it Sounds

GM Auto Sales Rise 17% – Not as Impressive as it Sounds

Courtesy of Mish 

V-Shaped recovery proponents are crowing about auto-sales as GM U.S. Sales Rise 17%, Topping Analysts’ Estimates.

General Motors Co. posted a 17 percent increase in May U.S. sales, the first time the automaker topped analysts’ forecasts since January, as customers snapped up Chevrolet Equinox sport utility vehicles and Malibu sedans.

Deliveries rose to 223,822 from 191,875 a year earlier, the Detroit-based automaker said today in statement. GM was expected to report a 5.9 percent increase, the average estimate of five analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Industrywide sales may match the longest streak of gains in a decade, analysts estimated.

Total sales of Chevrolet vehicles gained 31 percent from a year earlier to 167,235 vehicles, and GMC brand deliveries increased 26 percent to 30,160.

Industrywide sales may have risen to an annualized rate of 11.2 million cars and light trucks for May, the average estimate of eight analysts. That would mark the eighth straight month of year-over-year gains, according to Bloomberg data.

The report speculated that Toyota sales may have risen 7.5%, Honda 22%, Nissan 11%, and Ford 16%.

Before everyone brings out the high-fives celebrating a miraculous recovery, let’s put this rebound in perspective.

Light Vehicle Sales Autos and Trucks

Note the cash for clunkers spike at the end of the last recession bars.

The industry had impressive gains percentagewise, but sales are at early 1980′s levels. This is hardly a V-Shaped recovery.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock


Tags: , , ,




A Positive Trend In July Car Sales

A Positive Trend In July Car Sales

Courtesy of Tom Lindmark at But Then What

car sales in july

Here is the meat of the car sales numbers. The seasonally adjusted annualized rate of sales stood at 11 million for the month of July, up significantly from the sub 10 million mark in June.

The major manufacturers that have reported so far show the following year-over-year results:

Ford                                      +2.4%

GM                                        -19.4%

Honda                                   -17.3%

Toyota                                  -11.4%

Chrysler                                -9.4%

Hyundai                                +11.9%

“Cash for clunkers” is given most of the credit for the better numbers with the usual caveat that it merely accelerated sales from later in the year. I think there’s a lot of truth to that but I also think that some of the growth in sales is probably real. The fleet is getting old and turnover is going to occur with or without C4C.

Still at an 11 million annual run rate, the industry is far from healthy.

more: here

And some additional thoughts, by Tom Lindmark

Could “Cash For Clunkers” Lead To The Feared Double Dip?

Could “Cash for Clunkers” be a net political negative for Obama? One analyst thinks that by moving forward sales via the program we’re setting ourselves up for a robust third quarter GDP number and a negative growth rate for the fourth quarter. The dreaded W or double dip recovery.

The Wall Street Journal’s Real Time Economics blog has the rationale on Douglas Lee’s theory:

His math: Auto sales were running at 750,000 to 850,000 units per month, and the


continue reading


Tags: ,




Doubts On China’s Trade Numbers

Doubts On China’s Trade Numbers

Courtesy of Tom Lindmark at But Then What?

This is a follow-up to a brief post that I put up yesterday regarding China’s May export and import data. I pretty much just reported the data, one of the key components being that exports were down 26.4% year-over-year and imports shrank 25.2% for the same period.

A couple bloggers picked up on a point that I hadn’t focused on and it deserves some mention. Specifically the fact that China’s capital spending was up 38.7% in May and is up 32.9% for the year doesn’t square with a decline in imports.

Here are Brad Setser’s thoughts:

Investment booms fueled by a surge in domestic lending usually lead to import booms. That was the case with the Asian tigers in the 1990s, the US at the peak of its dot home bubble and the real estate boom in the oil exporters just prior to the crisis. It was also the case in 2003, when a surge in bank lending triggered a surge in investment in China (just as Chinese exports were also surging). But it isn’t the case, at least so far, in China today.

Setser then goes on to analyze a number of charts on exports and imports but in the end seems to give up. The best he can come up with is that it is a puzzle.

Yves Smith at Naked Capitalism has been as much a China numbers skeptic as I. She has also cited declining numbers on electricity usage as being irreconcilable with the claims of relatively strong GDP growth. Today she points out some disparities in the dramatic car sale reports:

Separate but related is that some of the cheery data coming out of China does not bear close scrutiny. Yesterday, Bloomberg noted that car sales in China spiked. Today we learn that the definition of a “sale” is a shipment from the factory, whether the car has a buyer or not. And the number of registrations, a much better measure of end purchases, is much lower that the supposed sales figures.

Any further insights are most welcome.

 


Tags: , , ,




 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Liquidity Shortage Getting Worse: Fed's Repo Oversubscribed As Funding Demand Soars 50% Overnight

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

20 minutes after today's repo operation began, it concluded and there was some bad news in it: as we feared, yesterday's take up of the Fed's repo operation which peaked at $53.2 billion has expanded substantially, and according to the Fed, today there was a whopping $80.05BN in bids submitted, an increase of $27 billion, or 50% more than yesterday.

It also meant that since the operation - which is capped at $75BN - was oversubscribed by over $5BN, that there was one or more participants who did ...



more from Tyler

The Technical Traders

SAFE ASSETS - A TRADING STRATEGY FOR UTILITIES, GOLD, AND BONDS

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Chris Vermeulen, Founder of The Technical Traders shares his trading strategy for safer assets. While precious metals and bonds had a great run, the charts are showing the utilities could be the place to be in the short term. It’s important to note we are not saying the other safe havens are going to crash but it’s all about the time frame and playing the sector that could pop first.

LISTEN HERE NOW

...



more from Tech. Traders

Phil's Favorites

How does the 'unidentified political object' that is the European Union really work?

 

How does the 'unidentified political object' that is the European Union really work?

European Union flags at the EU headquarters in Brussels, Sept. 11, 2019. AP/Virginia Mayo

Courtesy of Garret Martin, American University School of International Service

In the run-up to the 2016 Brexit referendum in the United Kingdom, “Take our country back” became a rallying slogan for the campaign pushing for ...



more from Ilene

Kimble Charting Solutions

Stocks, Oil, and Bond Yields At Critical Bullish Breakout Tests!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

It’s not often that three asset classes reach similar important trading points all at once.

But that’s exactly what’s happening right now with stocks, crude oil, and treasury bond yields.

And this is occurring on Federal Reserve day no less! Something has got to give.

In the chart above y...



more from Kimble C.S.

Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Wednesday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • The MBA's index of mortgage application activity for the latest week is schedule for release at 7:00 a.m. ET.
  • Data on housing starts and permits for August will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • The Energy Information Administration’s weekly report on petroleum inventories in the U.S. is schedule for release at 10:30 a.m. ET.
  • The Federal Open Market Committee will announce its policy decision at 2:00 p.m. ET.
  • The Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET.

Posted-In: Economic Data...



http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Lee's Free Thinking

Is The Drone Strike a Black Swan?

Courtesy of Lee Adler

Pundits are calling yesterday’s drone strke a “black swan.” Can a drone strike on a Saudi oil facility, be a “black swan.”

According to Investopedia:

A black swan is an unpredictable event that is beyond what is normally expected of a situation and has potentially severe consequences. Black swan events are characterized by their extreme rarity, their severe impact, and the practice of explaining widespread failure to predict them as simple folly in hindsight.

I seriously doubt that no one expected or could have predicted a drone strike on a Saudi oil facility.

Call Me A B...

more from Lee

Chart School

Crude Oil Cycle Bottom aligns with Saudi Oil Attack

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Do the cycles know? Funny how cycle lows attract the need for higher prices, no matter what the news is!

These are the questions before markets on on Monday 16th Aug 2019:

1) A much higher oil price in quick time can not be tolerated by the consumer, as it gives birth to much higher inflation and a tax on the average Joe disposable income. This is recessionary pressure.

2) With (1) above the real issue will be the higher interest rate and US dollar effect on the SP500 near all time highs.

3) A moderately higher oil price is likely to be absorbed and be bullish as it creates income for struggling energy companies and the inflation shock may be muted. 

We shall see. 

...

more from Chart School

Digital Currencies

China Crypto Miners Wiped Out By Flood; Bitcoin Hash Rate Hits ATHs

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Last week, a devastating rainstorm in China's Sichuan province triggered mudslides, forcing local hydropower plants and cryptocurrency miners to halt operations, reported CoinDesk.

Torrential rains flooded some parts of Sichuan's mountainous Aba prefecture last Monday, with mudslides seen across 17 counties in the area, according to local government posts on Weibo. 

One of the worst-hit areas was Wenchuan county, ...



more from Bitcoin

Biotech

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Courtesy of  , Visual Capitalist

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

As evidence of cannabis’ many benefits mounts, so does the interest from the global pharmaceutical industry, known as Big Pharma. The entrance of such behemoths will radically transform the cannabis industry—once heavily stigmatized, it is now a potentially game-changing source of growth for countless co...



more from Biotech

Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

more from M.T.M.

Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



more from Our Members

Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

...

more from Promotions





About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>