Posts Tagged ‘Case-Shiller chart’

Housing Update – How Far To The Bottom?

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Housing Update – How Far To The Bottom?

Courtesy of Mish

Inquiring minds have been asking for another housing update.

Using the Japan Nationwide Land Prices model as my guide, here is how I have called things in real time.

click on chart for sharper image

My previous update was was on December 1 ,2008 in a post with the same name as this one Housing Update – How Far To The Bottom?

I just added the Summer 2009 arrow. Housing prices are now one notch closer to their final destination. The US Timeline scale is compressed. At the current pace, housing will bottom in about 7 years vs. 14 years in Japan.

Comparison to Case-Shiller

Inquiring minds may wish to compare the shape of the above chart to June 209 Case Shiller Release (April Data).

click on chart for sharper image

The chart above shows the index levels for the 10-City and 20-City Composite Indices. As of April 2009, average home prices across the United States are at similar levels to where they were in the middle of 2003. From the peak in the second quarter of 2006, the 10-City Composite is down 33.6% and the 20-City Composite is down 32.6%.

click on chart for sharper image

The chart above depicts the annual returns of the 10-City Composite and the 20-City Composite Home Price Indices. The 10-City and 20-City Composites declined 18.0% and 18.1%, respectively, in April compared to the same month in 2008. These are improvements over their returns reported for March, down 18.7% for both indices. For the past three months, the 10-City and 20-City Composites have recorded an improvement in annual returns. Record annual declines were reported for both indices with their respective January data, -19.4% for the 10-City Composite and -19.0% for the 20-City Composite.

“The pace of decline in residential real estate slowed in April,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s. “In addition to the 10-City and 20-City Composites, 13 of the 20 metro areas also saw improvement in their annual return compared to that of March. Furthermore, every metro area, except for Charlotte, recorded an improvement in monthly returns over March. While one month’s data cannot determine if


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Phil's Favorites

Legal cannabis vs. black market: Can it compete?

 

Legal cannabis vs. black market: Can it compete?

Brian Harriman, Cannabis NB president and CEO, displays some cannabis products at a Cannabis NB retail store in Fredericton, N.B., on Tuesday October 16, 2018. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Stephen MacGillivray

Courtesy of Michael J. Armstrong, Brock University

The Oct. 17 launch of legal recreational cannabis in Canada brings many challenges. Retailers are now worrying about possible product shortages or web site glitches. Governments are still debati...



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Zero Hedge

Philly Fed Finds Trump Tax Relief More Than Offsets Adverse Effect From Trade War

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

For all the concerns that Trump's trade war and tariff increases could jeopardize corporate capital spending plans, resulting in a broader economic slump, a Special Question posed by this month's Philly Fed survey found that this is not the case; in fact when taking into account Trump's tax relief/fiscal stimulus just the opposite picture emerges.

In Special Question #3 in the October Philly Fed survey, the regional Fed asks "...



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Digital Currencies

Blockchains won't fix internet voting security - and could make it worse

 

Blockchains won't fix internet voting security – and could make it worse

An e-ballot is less secure than one on paper. SvetaZi/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Ari Juels, Cornell University; Ittay Eyal, Technion - Israel Institute of Technology, and Oded Naor, ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Global Stock Market Indexes Flash Bearish "Look Alike" Patterns?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Over the past several weeks, I’ve shared several examples of key stock market indexes and indicators hitting long-term resistance. Today, we’ll do the same… but with a much wider lens. We’ll look at 9 different stock market indexes in the developed markets that look concerning.

When a stock or market index hits resistance, it has three possibilities: 1) to break out above resistance  2) to move sideways / consolidate near resistance  3) to turn lower and pullback or correct.

In the 9-pack of charts below, we are seeing bearish “look-alike” patterns emerging. And in each case, it looks like the given markets are turning lower (point 1).

The markets considered include 6 U.S. indexes and 3 European, including the S&P 500(NYSEARCA: SPY), ...



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Insider Scoop

10 Stocks To Watch For October 18, 2018

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are:

  • Wall Street expects Philip Morris International Inc. (NYSE: PM) to report quarterly earnings at $1.27 per share on revenue of $7.15 billion before the opening bell. Philip Morris shares fell 0.07 percent to $84.50 in after-hours trading.
  • Analysts expect PayPal Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: ...


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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Oct 14, 2018

Courtesy of Blain.

Wednesday and Thursday finally brought some fireworks to a very complacent market.   The S&P 500 had not had a 1% move in 74 days until Wednesday’s drawdown.

Rising yields were nailed as the culprit but months of rallying eventually require some sort of shake out – whatever the catalyst.  Wednesday’s sell off was the worst day for the S&P 500 since February and the worst for the NASDAQ since June 2016.

The market losses are “a reaction from investors finally realizing we are in a higher interest-rate environment, and given the elevated level of stocks, market participants were likely looking for a reason to sell,” said Charlie Ripley, senior investment strategist for Allianz Investment Management. “Higher interest rates typically bring on tighter ...



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ValueWalk

Vilas Fund Up 55% In Q3; 3Q18 Letter: A Bull Market In Bearish Forecasts

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The Vilas Fund, LP letter for the third quarter ended September 30, 2018; titled, “A Bull Market in Bearish Forecasts.”

Ever since the financial crisis, there has been a huge fascination with predictions of the next “big crash” right around the next corner. Whether it is Greece, Italy, Chinese debt, the “overvalued” stock market, the Shiller Ratio, Puerto Rico, underfunded pensions in Illinois and New Jersey, the Fed (both for QE a few years ago and now for removing QE), rising interest rates, Federal budget deficits, peaking profit margins, etc...



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Members' Corner

Why obvious lies still make good propaganda

 

This is very good; it's about "firehosing", a type of propaganda, and how it works.

Why obvious lies still make good propaganda

A 2016 report described Russian propaganda as:
• high in volume
• rapid, continuous and repetitive
• having no commitment to objective reality
• lacking consistency

...

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Biotech

Gene-editing technique CRISPR identifies dangerous breast cancer mutations

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Gene-editing technique CRISPR identifies dangerous breast cancer mutations

Breast cancer type 1 (BRCA1) is a human tumor suppressor gene, found in all humans. Its protein, also called by the synonym BRCA1, is responsible for repairing DNA. ibreakstock/Shutterstock.com

By Jay Shendure, University of Washington; Greg Findlay, ...



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Mapping The Market

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

Via Jean-Luc:

Famed investor reflecting on his mistakes:

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

One that stands out for me:

Instead of focusing on how value factors in general did in identifying attractive stocks, I rushed to proclaim price-to-sales the winner. That was, until it wasn’t. I guess there’s a reason for the proclamation “The king is dead, long live the king” when a monarchy changes hands. As we continued to update the book, price-to-sales was no longer the “best” single value factor, replaced by others, depending upon the time frames examined. I had also become a lot more sophisticated in my analysis—thanks to criticism of my earlier work—and realized that everything, including factors, moves in and out of favor, depending upon the market environment. I also realized...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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