Posts Tagged ‘CF’

Love Letters (Weekend Reading on Valentine’s Day)

Happy Valentine's Day!

Last Valentine's Day was as Saturday, following a frightening Friday the 13th, where we had fallen through the 8,000 line on the Dow.  I wrote a very interesting post that morning discussing how I came about my political views, which is good for new Members to check out.   We also flipped short that day on SKF, too early at $130 but that ended well as we kept after them and it was our biggest bet by March 6th, which eventually returned over 1,000%.  We also stopped shorting GOOG at $350 (it did keep going to $300 but the upside was nice too).  I closed the morning post with:

For us, it’s all about the levels as we try to remain unbiased as investors, no matter how voraciously we defend our political views.  Dow 7,800, S&P 820, Nas 1,460, NYSE 5,100, Russell 437 and SOX 203 all better continue to hold today but, even if they do, we’re nowhere near where we want to be and we’re going to take some bearish covers into the weekend – just in case.  So whether you are a witch celebrating the horrors of the 13th or waiting for a rose from your true love the next day, remember to be careful out there – we are certainly still deep, deep in the woods!

That Tuesday (Monday was President's day) we fell 300 points and another 300 points by the end of the week!  That was a fitting way to mark the 80th anniversary of the St. Valentine’s Day Massacre when Al Capone’s "South Side" gang, dressed as cops, rousted a garage run by Bugs Moran’s "North Side" gang and had them stand against the wall and then executed all 7 men.  They shot them 70 times with machine guns and made their escape by using the Capone men dressed as cops to "arrest" the other Capone men and drive them away from the scene in broad daylight.  Now that's what I call a good plan! 

Here's a great chart that summarizes our year to date. Someone else found this, I wish I knew how to use StockCharts this well, they have tons of good things in there:

 

It's a bit worrying that XLU is doing so poorly – so much for diversification keeping you safe…  It's going…
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Option Traders Try Their Luck with Out-of-the-Money Calls on MGM Mirage

Today’s tickers: MGM, EWC, EWZ, DHI, XLF, GLW, TRA, CF, PHM, GFI & EBAY

MGM – MGM Mirage, Inc. – Shares of casino resort operator, MGM Mirage, rallied 5.25% this afternoon to $9.62. Option traders expecting shares to rally significantly in the next 12 months bought call options in the January 2011 contract. Approximately 20,000 calls were purchased at the January 2011 20 strike for an average premium of 70 cents per contract. Investors break even on the calls if MGM’s shares more than double by expiration. Shares must rally at least 115% to the breakeven price of $20.70 in order for call-buyers to begin to accumulate profits.

EWC – iShares MSCI Canada Index ETF – The exchange-traded fund, which mirrors the performance of publicly traded securities in the Canadian market, attracted pessimistic option players. The bearish risk reversal established on the fund contrasts with the nearly 1.5% rally in shares of the underlying to $26.30 during the session. It appears one investor sold 12,500 calls at the June 27 strike for a premium of 1.60 each, spread against the purchase of the same number of calls at the lower June 26 strike for two dollars premium apiece. The net cost of the reversal amounts to 40 cents per contract. Profits on the trade – assuming the investor holds no underlying stock position – accrue if shares of the EWC slip beneath the breakeven point to the downside at $25.60 by expiration in June 2010.

EWZ – iShares MSCI Brazil Index ETF – A number of bullish trades on the Brazil exchange-traded fund today suggest shares of the EWZ are set to rally in the first few months of the new year. Shares edged 1.5% higher during the trading day to stand at $73.21. Optimistic traders employed a number of different option strategies in order to position for bullish movement in the price of the underlying stock. One trader initiated a risk reversal in the January contract by selling 6,000 puts at the January 72 strike for 1.80 each, spread against the purchase of 6,000 in-the-money calls at the same strike for 2.70 apiece. The cost of getting long the call options is reduced to 90 cents per contract for the reversal player. Profits on the position amass above the breakeven price of $72.90. Another option bull unfurled the wings of a butterfly spread in the March contract. The trader…
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Bearish Risk Reversal Anchored in Royal Caribbean Cruises

Today’s tickers: RCL, GE, YHOO, XLF, X, FCX, AIG, CF, JAVA & UAUA

RCL – Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. – Bearish option traders clawed-aboard global cruise company, Royal Caribbean, today despite the 0.5% increase in shares during the trading session to $24.24. A large-volume risk reversal in the June 2010 contract indicates rougher seas could cloud RCL’s horizon. One investor sold 20,000 calls at the June 30 strike for an average premium of 1.70 apiece, spread against the purchase of the same number of put options at the lower June 20 strike for 2.25 each. The net cost of the reversal amounts to 55 cents per contract. The investor responsible for the trade is likely long shares of the underlying stock. If this is the case, the long put position established today, provides downside protection beneath the effective breakeven point at $19.45. Conversely, if shares surge during the next seven months, the underlying stock position will be called away from the trader if shares exceed $30.00 by expiration in June.

GE – General Electric Co. – A sold straddle on General Electric this afternoon indicates one investor expects shares to settle at $16.00 by expiration in June of 2010. Shares edged slightly lower by less than 0.50% to $15.88 in late afternoon trading. The trader looked to the June 16 strike to sell approximately 5,000 calls for a premium of 1.61 apiece and 5,000 puts at the same strike for 1.89 each. The gross premium pocketed by the investor amounts to 3.50 per contract. The trader keeps the full 3.50 premium on the straddle if shares center at $16.00 through expiration. The investor may take profits ahead of expiration by buying back the short straddle for less than 3.50 per contract. Premiums on both calls and puts are elevated today because of the 6% increase in option implied volatility on the stock to 35.50%. The trader benefits from lower volatility on GE and from eroding time value of option premiums. Both factors drag option premiums lower and allow the trader to buy back the straddle in a profitable manner.

YHOO – Yahoo!, Inc. – The 0.5% decline in shares of the internet company to $14.93 did not deter one investor from taking a bullish stance in the April 2010 contract today. It appears the trader put on a ratio call spread to position for a rebound in shares by expiration.…
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Gold Mminers ETF Attracts Bullish Option Plays

Today’s tickers: GDX, CF, S, XHB, PCLN, XLF, CX, CAR, BZH, CRI & ERTS

GDX – Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF – Shares of the gold ETF that invests in shares of precious metals mining companies are up 0.5% to $49.53 with one hour remaining in the trading session. Option implied volatility has come down from 54% to 46% recently as gold’s price has surged. Nearer-term investors sought downside protection on the fund, whereas long-term traders initiated bullish plays. Investors hoping to lock in gains experienced during the recent run-up in the price of gold purchased 4,000 puts at the January 2010 47 strike for 3.05 apiece. Further along, at the March 2010 44 strike, another 6,000 puts were picked up for an average premium of 3.10 per contract. Finally, long-term bullishness took the form of a call spread in the January 2011 contract. It appears one investor purchased about 5,000 calls at the January 50 strike for an average of 9.52 each, marked against the sale of the same number of calls at the higher January 55 strike for 7.55 each. The net cost of the optimistic play amounts to 1.97 per contract. The trader stands to accrue maximum potential profits of 3.03 each if shares of GDX rally 11% over the current price to $55.00 by expiration in January 2011.

CF – CF Industries Holdings, Inc. – Bearish option plays appeared on the manufacturer of nitrogen and phosphate fertilizer products today after the firm rejected rival Agrium Inc.’s increased takeover offer of $4.52 billion. Shares of CF are currently trading 4% lower to $77.20. Investors purchased put options at the now in-the-money December 80 strike for an average premium of 6.70 apiece. Perhaps put-buyers are protecting long stock positions. Otherwise, they are hoping to accrue profits if shares of CF decline through the effective breakeven price of $73.30. Another trader unraveled a previously established bullish play in the January 2010 contract. The investor originally placed an extremely bullish 8,500-lot call spread at the January 90/100 strikes. However, the trader abandoned bullish sentiment today by closing out the spread. Option implied volatility on CF jumped 7.5% over Monday’s closing value of 52.9% to reach an intraday high of 55.9%.

S – Sprint Nextel Corp. – Shares of the wireless communications company surrendered a portion of gains experienced during yesterday’s 20% rally to an intraday high of $3.43. The stock…
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Gloomy Put Options Posturing on Financials ETF

Today’s tickers: XLF, ETFC, CF, HGSI, EEM, BEBE, SMH, VRTX, HGSI, F & LDK

XLF – Financial Select Sector SPDR – A large bearish spread in the June 2010 contract suggests one investor feels the need for downside protection through expiration. Shares are slightly up this afternoon by about 0.25% to $14.09. The trader purchased 20,000 put options at the June 14 strike for an average premium of 1.91 apiece. He financed the long position by selling 20,000 puts at the June 11 strike for 74 cents each, and by selling another 20,000 puts at the lower June 10 strike for 51 cents premium. The net cost of the transaction amounts to 66 cents per contract. The investor responsible for the three-legged spread is possibly holding a long stock position in the XLF. The put options might then serve to protect the value of the position in the event that shares decline beneath the effective breakeven point at $13.34 by expiration. The fact that the trader is short two times as many puts indicates this investor expects a pullback but not a collapse beneath the lower strike price of $10.00.

ETFC – E*Trade Financial Corp. – The Wall Street Journal reported that ETFC withdrew its application for funding through the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) because the company’s “recent capital-raising and debt-reduction efforts negates the need for the money.” E*Trade raised $150 million by selling stock in the third quarter out of some $765 million of sold stock this year. The seemingly bullish news that the company no longer plans to participate in the capital-purchase program did not do much for the current share price, which slipped 6% lower to $1.37. Our scanners picked up on interesting options activity this afternoon that may or may not have been inspired by today’s news. It appears 95,000 put options sold at the January 1.0 strike for about 5.5 pennies apiece. One may infer the transaction represents bullish sentiment on ETFC if the sale of the put options is fresh activity. If this is the case, the trader pockets the 5.5 cents premium, and expects shares to remain above $1.00 through expiration. However, the sale could also be the work of an investor closing out a long put position given the already high reading of open interest at the small number of available strike prices.

CF – CF Industries Holdings, Inc. – The…
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Biotech/COVID-19

Here's where (and how) you are most likely to catch COVID - new study

 

Here’s where (and how) you are most likely to catch COVID – new study

VGstockstudio/Shutterstock

Courtesy of Trish Greenhalgh, University of Oxford; Jose-Luis Jimenez, University of Colorado Boulder; Shelly Miller, University of Col...



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Zero Hedge

Will The Market Flip Green This Week? Here Are The 15 Things On Goldman's Checklist

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Goldman's flow trader Scott Rubner called the year-end meltup and Santa Rally with perfect accuracy, although his call for a continuation of the meltup into January and the new year has so far proven painfully wrong. And with sentiment imploding over the past three weeks, turning from euphoric to cataclysmic in just a matter of days, it is hardly surpris...



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ValueWalk

These Are the Ten Best Performing Options Trading Funds

By Aman Jain. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Mutual Funds typically invest in stocks and fixed-income securities. However, there are funds that, along with investing in such securities, may also invest in derivatives contracts such as options and futures. Such types of investing allow funds to hedge their risk, and for investors, it helps them to diversify their portfolios. Let’s take a look at the ten best performing options trading funds.

Q4 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Ten Best Performing Options Trading Funds

We have referred to the last one-year return numbers (from ...



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Chart School

Bitcoin Swings Down to Support

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Come on! Seriously do you think a 400% rally for Bitcoin was going to be given to the public easily. Without any pain! Come on muppets!



The uniformed (public) buy when price is rising or breaking new highs, the informed buy when price is falling or breaking lows.



The informed have to do it this way as they are large volume players and the only way they can buy large volume is to create chaos. The chaos brings to the market the weak holders and a forced sell. Price is moved to where the volume can be accumulated, in a bull trend that is down to critical support.



Of course if price is in a true bull market the 'chaos' created should not break critical long term trend signals, ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Nasdaq Weakness Has Bears Circling Tech Stocks!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

One theme over the past several months has been tech stock’s under-performance. And 2022 seems to be amplifying this theme as we kick off the new year.

Today’s chart focus is on the ratio of the Nasdaq Composite to the S&P 500 Index. We have shared this ratio a few times recently as the price pattern has become a concern.

As you can see in the chart, there’s a potential that the ratio double topped last year at the 2000 highs. And weakness this month has it attempting to break dual support at...



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Politics

What Supreme Court's block of vaccine mandate for large businesses will mean for public health: 4 questions answered

 

What Supreme Court’s block of vaccine mandate for large businesses will mean for public health: 4 questions answered

New York City’s vaccine mandates are unaffected by the court ruling. AP Photo/Mary Altaffer

Courtesy of Debbie Kaminer, Baruch College, CUNY

The U.S. Supreme Court on Jan. 13, 2022, blocke...



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Digital Currencies

The metaverse is money and crypto is king - why you'll be on a blockchain when you're hopping

 

The metaverse is money and crypto is king – why you’ll be on a blockchain when you’re virtual-world hopping

In the metaverse, your avatar, the clothes it wears and the things it carries belong to you thanks to blockchain. Duncan Rawlinson - Duncan.co/Flickr, CC BY-NC

Courtesy of Rabindra Ratan, Michigan State University and Dar Meshi, Michigan State University ...



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Promotions

Phil's Interview on Options Trading with TD Bank

TD Bank's host Bryan Rogers interviewed Phil on June 10 as part of TD's Options Education Month. If you missed the program, be sure to watch the video below. It should be required viewing for anyone trading or thinking about trading using options. 

Watch here:

TD's webinar with Phil (link) or right here at PSW

Screenshots of TD's slides illustrating Phil's examples:

 

 

&n...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.